How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

On 6/30/2023 at 11:59 PM, kevinkin said:

I am not sure how much further traditional sanctions can go. The west has to slowly take apart the behind the scenes networks that supply Russia even with formal sanctions in place. This involves nations we want to be friends with. But those nations have their short term interests and people to provide for. In the end, the war is like a bad tooth. Fillings will not solve the underlying issue and the tooth has to be painfully pulled out on the battlefield. 

I'm sure diplomatic efforts are under way to persuade those putative "friends" that it's actually in their better interests to remain on good terms with the West, and incidentally help maintain the rules-based world order from which they have benefitted from since about 1945. If Russia survives being kicked out of Ukraine in any form which retains the will and means to cause Ukraine grief in a material (rather than simply political) sense, that tooth is, to torture your metaphor some, rotted below the gum line, out of reach of the pliers, and no one wants to go in with the drill because the patient has a knife to the dentist's belly that they will definitely use if you hurt them that much.

Sanctions have a way to go. Shell are still shipping Russian LNG because "honouring contracts". I'm sure they aren't alone. Those profiteering SOBs need to be told they're allowed to drop Russian product like hot cakes. Sanctions need to be made transitive, so that nations which ignore them get sanctioned too. Dirty money should be seized (and sent to Ukraine). There are so many ways sanctions can be extended, all the way to full, active blockade. Each has a cost, for sure, but the cost of leaving Ukraine to wither once their heroes have defeated the invaders would be similar to not having helped out in the first place.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, womble said:

Because improving production of that sort of ordnance by three orders of magnitude is going to happen. Ukraine's ability to strike into Russia becomes magnified once they hold their entire border again, but they are already adjacent for quite a long stretch and it's not dissuading the Russians one iota. In fact, the Kremlin would welcome  an aerial drone assault campaign from Ukraine, since it would allow them to intensify the "defense of the Rodina" narrative for both internal and international consumption.

At the moment I agree with you, but it will be a very different circumstance if Russia has been run completely out of Ukraine. It would be  even more obvious they are launching missiles out of pure spite. And the production really is a solvable problem. I mean the Iranians did it, and they are under massive sanctions.

[LongLeftFlank]

53 minutes ago, Grossman said:

It reinforces the fear that the Russians will blow part of the Zaporizhzhia plant. The sniffer would provide the evidence. If the Russians did so, goodness knows what the reaction would be. The sniffer would provide hard evidence so any military intervention would be based on factual data. We'd go into a crisis, but it might crystallise the conflict. 

My view is pure old school MAD deterrence: 'if one nuke is blown up to create a dirty bomb, mofos, then two do.'

The second would be Kursk NPP, 3GW, just 100km from the frontier.

 

[womble]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

At the moment I agree with you, but it will be a very different circumstance if Russia has been run completely out of Ukraine. It would be  even more obvious they are launching missiles out of pure spite. And the production really is a solvable problem. I mean the Iranians did it, and they are under massive sanctions.

Iran is not producing "hundreds per day" of the Shaheeds. Maybe I'm getting hung up on what was meant to be hyperbole.

Russia doesn't care much what the rest of the world thinks, but if so-called "Ukronazis at the gates of the Motherland" start doing to Russia what Russia has been doing to Ukraine (even if the targets are all legitimate military installations/formations), every accidental civilian casualty (there will be some) will be all over the Internet and "balanced" Western media, eroding future support for the Ukrainian cause. Ukraine won't have the international investment that would make its rebuilding less painful and slow, and it seems to me that in such a situation, it's not impossible for the Ukrainian attitude to the rest of the world to change from gratitude to resentment. And I wouldn't blame them one bit.

[cesmonkey]

On the usefulness of mines debate, from Rybar's summary for July 1st:
https://t.me/rybar/49231

Quote

Avdeevsky fortified area

positional battles continue: clusters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are regularly attacked by artillery and drones, however, the offensive of Russian units is complicated by the enemy’s layered defense and minefields.

 

[Fenris]

ISW today - actually was yesterday's report so might have already been discussed

Quote

Russian forces are likely responding to Ukrainian operations around Bakhmut by pulling forces from elsewhere in Ukraine. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported on July 1 that Russian forces recently transferred an unspecified Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) regiment from the Lyman direction (the area west of Kreminna) to the Bakhmut direction.[21] Geolocated footage published on June 30 shows the 137th Guards Airborne Regiment (106th Airborne Division) operating south of Rozdolivka (18km north of Bakhmut).[22] A Russian milblogger also claimed that elements of the 98th VDV Division are now operating in the Bakhmut direction.[23] ISW has previously observed elements of the 237th Air Assault Regiment (76th VDV Division) and the 331st Airborne Regiment (98th VDV Division) operating in the Lyman direction, although ISW has not seen any visual confirmation of elements of either formation near Bakhmut recently.[24] Cherevaty reported that Russian forces replaced the VDV regiment in the Lyman direction with unspecified territorial defense forces, indicating that Russian forces may be redeploying more elite units to the Bakhmut area and replacing the elite units with inferior formations.[25] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar previously stated that Russian forces transferred some of their most-combat capable units from the Kherson direction to the Bakhmut and Zaporizhia directions in the week following the start of Ukrainian counteroffensives on June 4.[26] Cherevaty stated that Bakhmut continues to offer Russian forces more propaganda value than military benefits and suggested that Russian forces may be concentrating elite forces in the Bakhmut area to preserve the perceived informational victory resulting from the capture of Bakhmut on May 21.[27]  If Russian reinforcements already sent to Bakhmut are insufficient to hold Russian gains in the area the Russian command may face difficult choices about whether to risk creating serious vulnerabilities in Kherson or Luhansk oblasts or to begin drawing forces away from southern Ukraine.

 

Edited July 2, 2023 by Fenris

[kluge]

1 hour ago, Grossman said:

It reinforces the fear that the Russians will blow part of the Zaporizhzhia plant. If the Russians did so, goodness knows what the reaction would be.

Multiple governments have clearly signaled that they would respond to such an event by deploying conventional forces in Ukraine. I see no major reasons to believe that this won't be the case.

[FancyCat]

36 minutes ago, womble said:

Sanctions have a way to go. Shell are still shipping Russian LNG because "honouring contracts". I'm sure they aren't alone. Those profiteering SOBs need to be told they're allowed to drop Russian product like hot cakes. Sanctions need to be made transitive, so that nations which ignore them get sanctioned too. Dirty money should be seized (and sent to Ukraine). There are so many ways sanctions can be extended, all the way to full, active blockade. Each has a cost, for sure, but the cost of leaving Ukraine to wither once their heroes have defeated the invaders would be similar to not having helped out in the first place.

Globalized economy. The withdrawal of Russian exports, oil or otherwise, will damage the poorest and weakest economies around the world, causing rising food and energy prices, that will hit the west, both its citizens and thru increasing global instability.

Not to mention collapse of the Black Sea Grain initiative, and loss of Ukrainian grain exports worldwide. Russia would undoubtedly stop that if sanctions increase.

3 minutes ago, kluge said:

Multiple governments have clearly signaled that they would respond to such an event by deploying conventional forces in Ukraine. I see no major reasons to believe that this won't be the case.

have statements to back that up?

[womble]

Given the RUS understandable aversion to being cut off, surrounded and wiped out, I'm not sure why UKR would even start poking around in actual Bakhmut "proper" rather than continuing to push back the flanks and make the place a salient that can be bypassed and reduced/ignored later. It's not like there are any civilians there whose suffering needs to be taken into account. Let the invaders starve, if they don't just give up, assuming they don't withdraw once in danger of envelopment.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

There will be no reaction, just like there was basically no reaction to all other Russian crimes against humanity.

I think you are jumping to a conclusion too early. We have a lot of time yet to play out for war crimes trials. One article cited above is Lukashenko possibly having a card to play in turning over Wagner folks to The Hague. I get this is the “immediate gratification is too slow” era, but the fat lady isn’t schedule to sing for quite a while yet. 

[womble]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

Globalized economy. The withdrawal of Russian exports, oil or otherwise, will damage the poorest and weakest economies around the world, causing rising food and energy prices, that will hit the west, both its citizens and thru increasing global instability.

There's going to have to be some surgery done on the globalised economy. The richer nations have largely managed to amputate Russia from their energy supply chains. Currently, Russian petro is really cheap  because the market for it is small. And China is the largest beneficiary. If "we" got serious, we could buy Saudi oil and gas at market prices and resell it at a loss to the nations that are still dependent on Russian oil. Or we could "persuade" the rest of the extraction industry to increase output to compensate for the loss of Russian hydrocarbons. The bonanza of low priced oil would end, but it wouldn't have started if it wasn't for the war.

None of what needs to be done is without cost. None of it is easy. But letting Russia keep lobbing missiles at a liberated Ukraine is costly, and difficult. At the very least, it maintains the "excuse" that "there's a war on" that people keep using to justify ****ty economic and environmental decisions, and throws Ukraine under a bus.

Maybe Russia will "come to its senses" in some manner (change of regime) once UKR achieve the humiliation of the invading armies, but it's going to need pressure in that direction, if it's even at all possiblbe.

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Not to mention collapse of the Black Sea Grain initiative, and loss of Ukrainian grain exports worldwide. Russia would undoubtedly stop that if sanctions increase.

They might try, and if the political will is there to impose radical sanctions, they might find it costly to their ability to interdict it, since it's an obvious consequence which the sanction-imposing nations would have to have a plan to deal with, in order to avoid embarrassing climbdowns. Said ability to interdict would be limited anyway if the BSF can't use Sevastopol as their base any more. We are talking about a scenario where RUS has been completely thrown out of Ukraine, after all.

[kraze]

12 minutes ago, sburke said:

I think you are jumping to a conclusion too early. We have a lot of time yet to play out for war crimes trials. One article cited above is Lukashenko possibly having a card to play in turning over Wagner folks to The Hague. I get this is the “immediate gratification is too slow” era, but the fat lady isn’t schedule to sing for quite a while yet. 

I don't think potential war crime trials 10-20 years down the line help much with irradiated lands and the general course of the war now. And that's what LFP means.

[kluge]

24 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

have statements to back that up?

Poland has been more or less saying this since last year: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/28/ukraine-nato-russia-nuclear-weapons-devastating-poland-foreign-minister

[kraze]

43 minutes ago, kluge said:

Multiple governments have clearly signaled that they would respond to such an event by deploying conventional forces in Ukraine. I see no major reasons to believe that this won't be the case.

Let me be cynical (realistic) here and say there will be no response and blowing up NPP will be heavily downplayed with arguments like "we need to investigate first to determine who is responsible based on facts" and "ambient radiation in Romania increased only by 3.6 roentgens, not great not terrible". After all most of the nuclear fallout will remain on a Ukrainian soil since this isn't RBMK and you can't turn it into a proper nuclear bomb like in Chernobyl - but you can turn it into a dirty bomb with a fairly limited radius.

I think after russians do it and there will be no consequences* for them - the only question that will remain is "tactical nukes when".

*sanctions aren't consequences, russians are broke and live in wooden barracks. They don't care if they get no iPhone, can't afford it anyway.

Edited July 2, 2023 by kraze

[Haiduk]

Likely Russian Spetsnaz or recons, using AM1 ATVs of Russian production (indeed localized AM800 OdesAssaliant). One interesting note - about 2-3 months ago Russian MoD officially permited using of Multicam pattern as legal camo.

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for the details!  IIRC a couple of TD units were upgraded to regular Army Brigades.  Didn't the 110th Mech come from that?

Steve

No, no one TD brigade has changed own status. 110th TD Br and 110th MeBr are different formations. I can't understand MoD logic, giving the same numbers to different "infantry" units, which caused a confusion. Except 110th number there are intersections also in 101st, 115th, 116th, 118th, 128th numbers. Though, these brigades belongs to different Commands. Mechanized brigades are under Ground Forces Command and TD brigades are under Territorial Defense Forces Command. 

Edited July 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Some alarms from Russian TGs

Northern flank of Bakhmut. UKR 57th mot.inf.brigade restored own gains, lost two days ago and probably again entered to Berkhivka

The enemy launched counter-offensive toward Berkhivka and could burst into important village on Artiomovsk [former Soviet name of Bakhmut]. Armored group of 57th brigade of AFU could breack through first defense line and enter on outskirts of this strattegical important settlement.

 

Antonivskyi bridge area

Russian attack failed again. 

The battle on Oleshky bridgehead is continue. According to mesages, after commander injury (I remind, clashes are going under continous fire from higher bank of Dnipro) our units withdrew from the bridge and the enemy again took theses positions. The hotel is our. All reprts about elimination of bridgehead turned out untimely

The situation is getting out of control. We have wounded and killed. Yes, khokhol is dying too. But, situation came under their control. We believe. Clashes continue.

As video illustrations - burning Tigr near the bridge and UKR Mavic bombing of Russians in Oleshky

 

Edited July 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

So again, what war are you watching that is showing that AP mines have no military value?  Because the war I'm watching shows the exact opposite.

 

I never said they have no military value. Here's what I actually said:

I don't think AP mines are extremely effective militarily. They are not completely worthless either, depending on the exact type, but compared to the post-war consequences, they are not worth it.

 

But no, I didn't watch that movie of the Ukrainian infantry caught in a minefield. I don't think anyone would argue that it's a safe place to be.

[Haiduk]

Russian TG

Orekhov [ukr.Orikhiv] direction

The enemy launched assault actions on positions of 1430th MRR. Clashes are ongoing in present time. There is dense work of enemy and our artilelry. Foreign armor wasn't spotted by our outposts, except M113. 

Interesting that 1430th MRR according to Mashovets was deployed southern of Robotyne near Novoprokopivka village, but maybe it was moved to contact line. 

Today also appeared western-source information that several Russian companies, defending Robotyne abandoned own positions under prssure of UKR arty fire and UKR troops enetered to the village, but I can't see any hints of our side about this and no panic posts about Robotyne in Russian TGs, so likely this is fake.  

[Haiduk]

 

[kraze]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

My view is pure old school MAD deterrence: 'if one nuke is blown up to create a dirty bomb, mofos, then two do.'

The second would be Kursk NPP, 3GW, just 100km from the frontier.

 

The difference is that when russia'll do it - all the "human rights" organizations will take a soul-crushingly neutral stance with "let's not get ahead of ourselves". Just like they (heck, even some Western governments) did with the Kakhovka dam.

But if Ukraine will do it in retaliation - you'll see every "human rights" defender blaming us for being horrible genocidal terrorists that are absolutely evil and must be stopped at all costs - and taking away all the Western support will be a good start.

I mean you don't have to go far back in history (or too far in geolocation, just across a sea and then some) for a similar example. I've been told in this very thread that I shouldn't bring Israel up because they are absolute evil since they retaliated in kind on several occasions.

So nah. Pretty sure we will be told right away "no retaliation or else", since we want to win the war and liberate our gloriously acute radiation syndrome inducing, lands.

Edited July 2, 2023 by kraze

[Haiduk]

Interesting story, how near Kyiv during unexploded bomb removing and checking the ground around were found remains of eight Hawker "Hurricanes", which probably were deliberately scrapped by USSR after the war in order not to pay for Lend-Lease requirements for equipment, which remained intact. From the planes were removed all valuable equipmment and just its frames were towed to the ravine and burried by bulldozers. 

Now National Aviation Museum tries to excavate all remains for reassembling and putting to exposition at least one fighter.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65955365?fbclid=IwAR3dbUNjkOAfpuFc2RploevCWTRtInA2Sc_ZT2FNqBd6OK0xMFq0Se0Rl-0

 

Edited July 2, 2023 by Haiduk

[sburke]

3 hours ago, kraze said:

I think after russians do it and there will be no consequences* for them - the only question that will remain is "tactical nukes when".

*sanctions aren't consequences, russians are broke and live in wooden barracks. They don't care if they get no iPhone, can't afford it anyway.

Well can’t say your pessimism is unwarranted but regarding iPhones, wasn’t that the first question that woman asked when her son was capture?. We also are talking Oligarchs who don’t live in shacks that are the ones we are hitting with sanctions. 

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Well can’t say your pessimism is unwarranted but regarding iPhones, wasn’t that the first question that woman asked when her son was capture?. We also are talking Oligarchs who don’t live in shacks that are the ones we are hitting with sanctions. 

The oligarchs have the amount of money that they will feel no personal lack of anything. Sanctions against the civilian populace are beside the point. Western nations will never apply sanctions which provide serious harm (food, medicine) to civilians, and any inconvinience in daily life will not change the situation in Russia because the majority of the population is politically passive and the part of the population which isn't apolitical are the Angry Patriots & Co who scream from the rooftoops that is is time to "finally take the gloves off and show the Ukrainian subhumans the what is what".

 

The sanctions which make sense and which need to be tightened and enforced three times over are: parts for machining and machine maintenance, software, military goods and goods with double-usage, so all links of micro-chips, opto-electronics for targeting systems, everything with regard to aviation, as well as any sanction which is macro-economically relevant. That means making Russian exports worth less and Russian imports cost more on the world market.

Edited July 2, 2023 by Carolus
typos

[womble]

26 minutes ago, Carolus said:

The oligarchs have the amount of money that they will feel no personal lack of anything.

And large chunks of that money are kept outside Russia. The international community needs to decide that that should all be turned over to Ukraine. London, aka Moscow-on-Thames is one of the greatest concentrations of illicitly-gotten wealth, and the UK government should be leading the way in recovering that money for Ukraine. The oligarchs might feel differently about Putin when his antics have chopped a zero off the end of their fortune.