How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

Yah no Canadian politician is going to piss off an entire sector of the electorate 5hat votes consistently.

This is a non-starter.

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

So, when/if they return home, they’re charged, tried, and if convicted, sentenced to 5(insert local currency here), or one hour community service. Case closed.

no I think the requirement would be two hours service which would be met by participation in the local Ukrainian community victory parade.

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Addendum:

 

 

Not smart at al, going against high tech aerospace firms whose revenues exceed that of many nations' GDPs. 

All,

Ref KUB-BLA kamikaze drone, had a longish call with brother Ed, who informs me that, to a first approximation, the battery pack would weigh 5-8 kgs and generate 20 Ampere hours to enable the drone to fly at 130 kph for 30 minutes. Neither he nor I was able to find any all-up system weight in a quick search, but the warhead and camera come in at 3 kgs for the payload.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/03/14/russias-kub-bla-kamikaze-drone-intercepted-in-ukraine/

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_march_2022_global_security_army_industry/russia_using_kalashnikov_zala_aero_kub_suicide_drones_in_ukraine.html

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 15, 2022 by John Kettler

[cyrano01]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 

Sounds like a either a myth or some weird law on the books that no one actually enforces.  ISIS foreign fighters can be charged for “support to a terrorist organization”, which is different.

Sounds about right, I don't believe there has been a prosecution under the Foreign Enlistment Act since the Jameson Raid (1895/6).  Would be rather hypocritical too for a country that benefits from the services of the Ghurkas.

[John Kettler]

28 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Hopefully this is not a re-post

A very emotional video clip

Ukrainian Pianist Plays A Final Rendition Of Chopin In The Ruins Of Her House

 

Chibot Mk IX,

Am leaking tears from this. Don't know what hit her neighborhood, but it was bad!

Regards,

John Kettler

[DesertFox]

Some more academic background to all this mess. In case you don´t know already. Well worth reading:

Timothy Snyder: “God Is a Russian” | Russian, East European, & Eurasian Studies at Yale

God Is a Russian | by Timothy Snyder | The New York Review of Books (nybooks.com)

[Machor]

Since folks asked for posts on Russia's successes... they seem to have taken over what remains of Ukraine's navy. The Ukrainians scuttled their flagship (a frigate) about a week ago; don't know why these gunboats were left intact:

 

[Machor]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Four or even five Russian tanks bogged dead and abandoned

This reminds me of the discussion on this forum several years (centuries?) ago about Soviet tanks being really poor at reversing. Since they were advancing as a column, it should have been feasible to reverse their way out starting with the last tank in the column. (Merkavas are supposedly the best in the world for reversing.)

[DesertFox]

I have a very bad feeling about this...

 

 

[Machor]

5 hours ago, John Kettler said:

panzermartin,

Let me answer your Su-25 RTB question in a particularly unforgettable way. In the Georgia WAr, an Su-25 took a direct engine hit by a Buk and made it back to the base. The hit obliterated the engine, but an armored firewall between the two engines kept the disntegrating engine from destroying its neighbor. Compared to a Buk direct hit, a MANPADS to an engine, barring, say, a catastrophic fire or such, is exactly why the plane, a shameless lift of the Northrop Grumman YAX-9, was able to survive the hit and RTB. It's also why the plane, like the one that became the A-10, had two engines and fully redundant flight controls.

Regards,

John Kettler

Adding images to JK's commentary: First, Su-25 that survived Stinger hit in Afghanistan; next, the Su-25 that was hit in Georgia:

 

[The Steppenwulf]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm reminded of WW2 stories about how whole units of Soviet tanks would be reported "lost in swamps".

I was reading a wikipedia article a few weeks ago about ancient bog bodies. That is generally Iron & Bronze age people that ritually strangled sacrificial victims in bogs and swamps  - archaeologists find them very well preserved 2500 years later. 

Well apparently bog bodies that are regularly dragged out of swamps in perfect nick most often are WW2 Russian and German soldiers. Most likely I would guess soldiers that went MIA in that swamp region on the Ukraine-Belarus border. 

[dan/california]

As brave as the guy firing the NLAW  from 50 meters.

Edit she has been "detained"

Edited March 15, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I watched a video with 3 other captured near Mykolaiv, also "found in woods". But they were not Russians, but mobilized citizens of Makiivka, under control of DNR. They told they were mobilized on 24th Feb in 127th regiment (??? there is no such unit in Russian army, so this is new formed DNR unit) and moved to Kherson oblast and further to Mykolaiv for maintaining road security

Somewhere in the past day there was some other evidence that the cannon fodder from DLPR was moved out to do rear security.  IIRC it was somewhere in the Mykolaiv area.  I could be wrong about that though.

Steve

[dan/california]

So does Putin start ordering suicidal attacks in five days in a last ditch attempt to pull it out, escalate in some horrible way, or get forcibly retired in one way or another. If he had the sense to just quit he would have done it by now. I guess I would have to add would have to add, does his army obey suicidal and/or truly stupid orders.

[dan/california]

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-19-summary/

Static almost everywhere...

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Some more academic background to all this mess. In case you don´t know already. Well worth reading:

Timothy Snyder: “God Is a Russian” | Russian, East European, & Eurasian Studies at Yale

God Is a Russian | by Timothy Snyder | The New York Review of Books (nybooks.com)

I heard the tail end of some interview with a Russian Orthodox someone or other (might have been an academic).  The question was put to him about if this war is an affront to God, or something like that, and he said yes.  The interviewer then asked why the Russian Orthodox Church hasn't said ANYTHING about this war?  His answer was the usual "I don't know, you'll have to ask them".

The problem for the Russian Orthodox Church is that they are bought and paid for.  Putin lavished them with all kinds of graft, social stances (anti-gay in particular), and repression of competing religions.  In exchange they were to tell all Russians that in order to get into heaven you have to love Putin.

I'm being snarky, yes, but only by a tiny bit.  This was the deal and if we see the Patriarch of Moscow reverse course then it is a sign that Putin is done.  However, as of right now, the war in Ukraine is justified because they have Gay Pride Parades:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/moscow-patriarch-stokes-orthodox-tensions-war-remarks-83322338

For those of you who didn't notice this in 2014, there was a schism because of Russia's invasion.  Most Orthodox Ukrainians rejected being associated with Russian Orthodox Church, but some stuck with it.  The above article indicates the holdouts are changing their view.

Steve

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

I heard the tail end of some interview with a Russian Orthodox someone or other (might have been an academic).  The question was put to him about if this war is an affront to God, or something like that, and he said yes.  The interviewer then asked why the Russian Orthodox Church hasn't said ANYTHING about this war?  His answer was the usual "I don't know, you'll have to ask them".

The problem for the Russian Orthodox Church is that they are bought and paid for.  Putin lavished them with all kinds of graft, social stances (anti-gay in particular), and repression of competing religions.  In exchange they were to tell all Russians that in order to get into heaven you have to love Putin.

I'm being snarky, yes, but only by a tiny bit.  This was the deal and if we see the Patriarch of Moscow reverse course then it is a sign that Putin is done.  However, as of right now, the war in Ukraine is justified because they have Gay Pride Parades:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/moscow-patriarch-stokes-orthodox-tensions-war-remarks-83322338

For those of you who didn't notice this in 2014, there was a schism because of Russia's invasion.  Most Orthodox Ukrainians rejected being associated with Russian Orthodox Church, but some stuck with it.  The above article indicates the holdouts are changing their view.

Steve

All of a piece with the Soviet Era. The ROC hierarchy was riven with informers, collaborators and outright KGB agents up to and including Patriarch Alexy II. Putin simply reactivated old links and turned the Church from a whipped cur into a regime guard dog.

[c3k]

Look, ya'll know I'm all in for Ukraine. BUT...to prevent the echo chamber from occurring: why haven't we been posting/hearing about Ukraine combat losses? Sure, there are plenty of "look, bad Russki bomb babushka" (not making light of what Russia is doing) but, we have not seen or discussed the attrition/losses of the various Ukrainian forces here.

Do we have a reliable estimate of Ukrainian losses? And, how do those affect combat effectiveness?

[sross112]

22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

So does Putin start ordering suicidal attacks in five days in a last ditch attempt to pull it out, escalate in some horrible way, or get forcibly retired in one way or another. If he had the sense to just quit he would have done it by now. I guess I would have to add would have to add, does his army obey suicidal and/or truly stupid orders.

My prediction is that they will try another general assault with whatever they have left in the next few days after that they are done. Putin and friends will give it the one last hurrah hoping for success but all they will do is add to their casualty lists. Then they will try to dig in and defend/consolidate their gains, call for a ceasefire and try to get Ukraine to the negotiating table while they do their best to rebuild, reinforce and resupply whatever they have left. This will be with the intent of getting time to recover until they can attack again, or at least believe they can. They'll offer what appears to the west to be good offers but there will be something that the Ukraine just can't agree on so the talks and ceasefire can drag on until they are able to defend themselves and attack some more. 

I think the worst thing the Ukraine could do is give them any kind of a general ceasefire. They have the advantage and can easily take the initiative and chew them to pieces. I don't think they should give them a ceasefire even if they were just wanting to withdraw to the border. After the way they have conducted this invasion and how they have acted in their earlier conflicts with Ukraine they should receive no reprieve until they hit the border. Then the Ukrainians need to stop. Hopefully they could recover the lost regions from earlier conflicts, but absolutely do not cross the border and let Russia turn this into a defending the motherland scenario.

I believe the UA can do all that, but the wild card is WMD's. Personally, I will be very surprised if they aren't used by Russian before this is all over no matter which way it ends but don't give them an excuse (invasion). 

Just my thoughts. I'm not one of those intel guys with great insight into these things so I'm probably wrong on all accounts.

[Fenris]

5 minutes ago, c3k said:

Look, ya'll know I'm all in for Ukraine. BUT...to prevent the echo chamber from occurring: why haven't we been posting/hearing about Ukraine combat losses? Sure, there are plenty of "look, bad Russki bomb babushka" (not making light of what Russia is doing) but, we have not seen or discussed the attrition/losses of the various Ukrainian forces here.

Do we have a reliable estimate of Ukrainian losses? And, how do those affect combat effectiveness?

 

Check this thread, gets updated regularly.

 

As to official, I recall seeing a tweet re an announcement from the UKR gov that it had lost 1600 servicemen/women.  I subsequently read a news site report that it was 1300.  That was yesterday I think.

Edited March 15, 2022 by Fenris

[John Kettler]

DesertFox and Haiduk,

Having now seen a clean copy of the BTR-4 attack at full screen on my iMac Retina, was finally able to see what you were talking about. Still don't know what it was, but the glowing white thing is to the screen left of the dark tank broadside on. Given this, I withdraw my earlier argument that I was seeing a TI of a vehicle a fair distance away, judging from size. In the second engagement, I found myself wondering if the BTR-4 had AP of any sort at all, since what I saw were HE detonations and nothing indicative of a KE strike.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 15, 2022 by John Kettler

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, c3k said:

Look, ya'll know I'm all in for Ukraine. BUT...to prevent the echo chamber from occurring: why haven't we been posting/hearing about Ukraine combat losses? Sure, there are plenty of "look, bad Russki bomb babushka" (not making light of what Russia is doing) but, we have not seen or discussed the attrition/losses of the various Ukrainian forces here.

Do we have a reliable estimate of Ukrainian losses? And, how do those affect combat effectiveness?

It's been brought up recently, but it is difficult to get good info on Ukrainian losses.  For sure they suffered some pretty big hits early on and are losing some each day.  As for combat effectiveness, we just have to look at the Russians' inability to do squat these days other than murder civilians.

What we do know is this weekend Zelensky reported 1300 service members have been killed since the fighting started.  As for tanks and equipment, this is the best out there:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

By this VERIFIED counting system, Russia has about 4 times as many vehicles taken out of service as Ukraine has.  The most staggering number is Russia has had more vehicles captured than Ukraine has lost by quite a wide margin.

Obviously this is not necessarily an even reflection of the battlefield as it could be that Ukraine simply has less pictures of their destroyed stuff as there is for Russian stuff.  So if you want, double the number of Ukrainian losses and Russia still doesn't look so great by comparison.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Has anybody posted this yet?

 

Notice that the bans includes Russia's own Eurasian Economic Union partners.  As if anybody seriously doubted that the "Union" really meant "Russian benefits, the rest of you don't".  Which is one reason we're in this mess right now.  Yanukovych was bowing to Russian pressure to join.  Part of the hazing ritual is burning whatever EU bridges you might have now or think of having in the future.  Big part of what drove Maidan into being.

Steve

[Fenris]

Interesting it mentions sugar.  I saw a clip today purportedly to be russians squabbling over sugar at a super market.

[c3k]

This "special operation" that Putin has undertaken will lead to a total collapse of the Russian economy. How's that expansionism working now, comrade?