How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Russian ammo dump was destroyed with mortar strike of 28th mech.brigade. Aerial spotting of 3rd battalion "Svoboda" ("Freedom") (mostly consists of right-spectre party "Svoboda" followers) of 4th National Guard rapid reaction brigade.

Nice fireball  

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

As to Israeli contributions (or lack thereof) to the war effort, let us recall what was found in Russian Forpost-R armed drones shot down over Ukraine last year. Israel has its own domestic reasons to not oppose someone else's war of righteous ethnic nationalism.

Didn't they find literally dozens of US components in RA UAVs as well?

https://nypost.com/2023/01/04/iranian-drones-contain-parts-made-by-13-us-companies-report/#:~:text=The Iranian-made drones used,a downed Shahed-136 drone.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-war-russia-iranian-drones-us-made-technology-chips/

Does the US have some reasons not to "opposed some one else's war of righteous ethnic nationalism"? 

Edited January 29, 2023 by The_Capt

[Haiduk]

41 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Didn't they find literally dozens of US components in RA UAVs as well?

These are just components, which could be ordered through "third hands" or even directly like civil production. US didn't participate in Russian drones development, didn't give technologies, didn't permit license manufacturing. The same "Forpost" is not Russian thing, this is 100 % Israeli IAI Searcher II, just assembling in Russia since 2010. This is ready solution given them by Israel, like now Iran gave them Shakheds and other. 

Also there are some rumors that Russian Lancets were developed, using technologies and solutions of Israeli UVision Air Company, developer of very similar kamikaze drone family Hero (Lancet-3 is close to Hero-120).

In the same time, Israel categorically had been rejecting all requests of Ukriane about aid in UAV technologies or ordering some UAV types.  

Edited January 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

A lot of components, you can buy on aliexpress or Alibaba. Downside of cheaper drone manufacturing, the parts are cheap too.

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is just components, which could be ordered through "third hands" or even directly like civil production. US didn't participated in Russian drones development, didn't give technologies, didn't permit license manufacturing. The same "Forpost" is not Russian thing, this is 100 % Israeli IAI Searcher II, just assembling in Russia since 2010. This is ready solution given them by Israel, like now Iran gave them Shakheds and other. 

Also there are some rumors that Russian Lancets were developed, using technologies and solutions of Israeli UVision Air Company, developer of very similar kamikaze drone family Hero (Lancet-3 is close to Hero-120).

In the same time, Israel categorically had been rejecting all requests of Ukriane about aid in UAV technologies or ordering some UAV types.  

Dude, not even close to the same circumstances as Iran.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAI_Searcher

As far as I can tell this was all stuff the Israelis sold to Russia years ago.  Along with a lot of nations, including Canada. Yes the Russians had/have a domestic licence to manufacture but again pre-war.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63318659

This does not translate into the Iranian sale of UCAVs directly to Russia in the middle of an illegal war in the least.  Meanwhile Israel has been selling anti-drone systems: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-defense-firm-selling-anti-drone-systems-to-ukraine-by-way-of-poland/

And providing humanitarian support pretty much since the beginning of this thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
 

 

 

[chuckdyke]

5 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Apart from that misinformed qualification, I tend to agree that Israel is the usual suspect. In this case I'd say well done, although I'm no fan of the usual behavior of the government of Israel especially now there's some regime which has more in common with Taliban than 'the West' in several area's. But that's off topic  

Politics is off topic. I must add that I am pro-Israel. Their claim is valid and goes back now 8000 years. The Dutch were just standing by when they were transported like cattle. I call this rich.

[billbindc]

46 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Dude, not even close to the same circumstances as Iran.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAI_Searcher

As far as I can tell this was all stuff the Israelis sold to Russia years ago.  Along with a lot of nations, including Canada. Yes the Russians had/have a domestic licence to manufacture but again pre-war.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63318659

This does not translate into the Iranian sale of UCAVs directly to Russia in the middle of an illegal war in the least.  Meanwhile Israel has been selling anti-drone systems: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-defense-firm-selling-anti-drone-systems-to-ukraine-by-way-of-poland/

And providing humanitarian support pretty much since the beginning of this thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
 

 

 

This. In the real world, the problem with Israel is that it isn’t helping Ukraine as *much* as we might have expected, not that it is helping Russia and the reason for that is directly tied to Syria and some fairly involved security issues therein. And that’s why Russia would be idiotic to provide Iran with nuclear help.

[Haiduk]

53 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Meanwhile Israel has been selling anti-drone

More correctly, Israel closed eye on operation of several systems selling by private manufacturer to Poland, which then handed over its to Ukriane. I heard on the level of rumors, that Israel secretly handed over to Ukriane other toys, but these are just rumors. In whole Israel had mostly neutral position. Not surprise, many from local elites have business relations with Russia, enough of them - ex-Soviet migrants or their ancestors, so pro-Russian lobby in Israel is enough strong. By the way many of our top-corruptioners, including many leader of pro-Russian parties and just usual parlamentaries have Israeli passports. Just for case.  

Israel never will be ruin relations with Russia. I will not wonder if their one hand gives us humanitarian aid and other hand trade with Russia, including crirtical electrionic components. Israel didn't join to sanctions against Russia to this time. About week ago Israel declined US request to hand over to Ukriane own old HAWK missiles.  

If Israel support us more, this will be situative act, summoned by possible Iran strenghtnening from alliance with Russia. But this will be reflected not so in sending more toys to Ukraine, but by strikes on Iranian facilities like today's one. 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

The USA military at least has already determined what cyber attacks constitute acts of war, and that the LOAC applies in cyber space.

Yup, but it's not clear about non-state actors or establishing clear guidelines for "good enough" blame.  That's been the bugaboo with cyber attacks for years now.  It's really tricky stuff, but not defining things more clearly is exactly why Russia, China, and others keep doing "implausible deniability" attacks.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Didn't they find literally dozens of US components in RA UAVs as well?

There have been accusations that Israeli companies have directly circumvented sanctions to sell Russia weapons components.  We all know France's Thales was caught doing this, so it's not that far fetched.  Capitalism likes to find ways of making money, legal or otherwise.

But you are correct, of course, that there's a lot of components, US and others, showing up in Russian equipment.  Those weren't coming direct from manufacturers, but through seemingly legitimate business transactions that were, in fact, headed up by Russian smugglers using complex corporate sheltering tactics.  A billion pages ago in this thread I posted an article about the FBI shutting down a couple of Russian smugglers, but I can't find an article on that.

FYI for everybody, the scheme is some Russians make it look like they are a legitimate middle man company operating within a Western country.  Usually multiple layers of obfuscation and fraud to fool anybody that does a superficial background check.  The items are shipped to an address in a friendly country and then the Russian simply smuggle them into Russia.  Pretty easy to do because private ships and planes aren't searched leaving, only when arriving in Russia.  Since it's something Russia arranged for in the first place, entry is guaranteed.

Unfortunately, pretty easily done for items not generally restricted between friendly nations.  Getting a hold of items that do fall under national arms or technology control laws is more difficult, but likely not impossible.

Steve

 

[sburke]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Didn't they find literally dozens of US components in RA UAVs as well?

https://nypost.com/2023/01/04/iranian-drones-contain-parts-made-by-13-us-companies-report/#:~:text=The Iranian-made drones used,a downed Shahed-136 drone.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-war-russia-iranian-drones-us-made-technology-chips/

Does the US have some reasons not to "opposed some one else's war of righteous ethnic nationalism"? 

watch your mouth.  Tucker is already calling for us to invade your country.  You are walking on eggshells.  You were warned!

[chuckdyke]

ok

Edited January 30, 2023 by chuckdyke

[dan/california]

There was some mention of of bone about the new game a week or two ago? Or at least a bone about Battlefronts plans for the year?

[Sojourner]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

A billion pages ago in this thread I posted an article about the FBI shutting down a couple of Russian smugglers, but I can't find an article on that.

Take your pick...

January 23, 2023

Press Release

Former Special Agent in Charge of the FBI New York Counterintelligence Division Charged with Violating U.S. Sanctions on Russia

December 13, 2022

Press Release

Russian Military and Intelligence Agencies Procurement Network Indicted in Brooklyn Federal Court

December 7, 2022

Press Release

Active Russian Agent Andrii Derkach Indicted for Scheme to Violate Sanctions in the United States

October 19, 2022

Press Release

Justice Department Announces Charges and Arrests in Two Cases Involving Export Violation Schemes to Aid Russian Military

April 6, 2022

Press Release

Russian Oligarch Charged with Violating U.S. Sanctions

March 3, 2022

Press Release

TV Producer for Russian Oligarch Charged with Violating Crimea-Related Sanctions

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

December 13, 2022

Press Release

Russian Military and Intelligence Agencies Procurement Network Indicted in Brooklyn Federal Court

AH!  That is the one I was thinking of.  Thanks!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Troll posing as a journalist. That profession has some ethical standards ignored by his monied employer.

 

Thanks, and now I'm waiting for your post to be flagged for being political.  Since I saw this first, I'll just say that this is a hot button topic that is best steered clear of.  People's minds are already made up about said employer, so it's not like a discussion here serves a purpose.

Steve

[Anonymous_Jonze]

Craziest combat footage I've seen thus far. International Legion cornered Spetznaz in a building after they dismounted their BMP. 

 

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

More correctly, Israel closed eye on operation of several systems selling by private manufacturer to Poland, which then handed over its to Ukriane. I heard on the level of rumors, that Israel secretly handed over to Ukriane other toys, but these are just rumors. In whole Israel had mostly neutral position. Not surprise, many from local elites have business relations with Russia, enough of them - ex-Soviet migrants or their ancestors, so pro-Russian lobby in Israel is enough strong. By the way many of our top-corruptioners, including many leader of pro-Russian parties and just usual parlamentaries have Israeli passports. Just for case.  

Israel never will be ruin relations with Russia. I will not wonder if their one hand gives us humanitarian aid and other hand trade with Russia, including crirtical electrionic components. Israel didn't join to sanctions against Russia to this time. About week ago Israel declined US request to hand over to Ukriane own old HAWK missiles.  

If Israel support us more, this will be situative act, summoned by possible Iran strenghtnening from alliance with Russia. But this will be reflected not so in sending more toys to Ukraine, but by strikes on Iranian facilities like today's one. 

Well someone is going to have unpack what the critical link between Israel and Russia is then, because it is not trade:

https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/rus/partner/isr
 

Those are really small numbers compared to each nations overall economies.  Not even 10 percent of what Germany was doing for business with Russia:

https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/deu/partner/rus

So other than some pretty suspicious sounding “Israeli Elites” rumours, how is Israel or Russia dependant on each other in any meaningful way?  Israel sold them some drones, but they sold those drones all over the world.  Not sure why Israel is holding back but they have every right to stay out of this if they like.  They are not part of NATO nor the western block in reality.  They do have strong bilateral agreements with the US but that only goes so far.

Either way it is pretty strong language (and not a little ironic) to put Israel in the same “supporting Russia” camp as Iran, and without any real proof as far as I can see.

[Beleg85]

Several days ago, RT "correspondent" showed video of direct combat at barrel length, when Russians sneaked into UA trench. One brave defender engaged them at closest possible distance... soldier get defeated and shot unfortunatelly at literally bayonet range (none of combatants have the blades, though). I wouldn't be surprised if soon we may also witness return to cold steel in this type of combat...WWI in full.

https://warisboring.com/russian-stormtroopers-sneak-into-a-ukrainian-trench-kill-and-capture-at-close-range/

1 hour ago, Anonymous_Jonze said:

Craziest combat footage I've seen thus far. International Legion cornered Spetznaz in a building after they dismounted their BMP. 

Yeah, his videos shows real "face of battle" of this conflict, especially regarding communication difficulties. It seems from descriptions at the end that these infantrymen were too long clearing this buidling and Russian artillery somehow managed to target them.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Beleg85

[Anonymous_Jonze]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Several days ago, RT "correspondent" showed video of direct combat at barrel length, when Russians sneaked into UA trench. One brave defender engaged them at closest possible distance... soldier get defeated and shot unfortunatelly at literally bayonet range (none of combatants have the blades, throug). Soon it will also be like in WWI- return of cold steel...

https://warisboring.com/russian-stormtroopers-sneak-into-a-ukrainian-trench-kill-and-capture-at-close-range/

Yeah, his videos shows real "face of battle" of this conflict, especially regarding communication difficulties. It seems from descriptions at the end that these infantrymen were too long clearing this buidling and Russian artillery somehow managed to target them.

Absolutely. I was remarking to myself as I watched that it seemed there was a lack of coordination. The chaos of war. RIP to the fallen. 

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, but it's not clear about non-state actors or establishing clear guidelines for "good enough" blame.  That's been the bugaboo with cyber attacks for years now.  It's really tricky stuff, but not defining things more clearly is exactly why Russia, China, and others keep doing "implausible deniability" attacks.

Steve

Indeed it is. Attribution is less developed and understanably much more difficult in the cyber realm than traditional kinetic attacks. The USA and other countries have had decades of investment and technology to detect and determine the origin of kinetic attacks. For incoming missiles this included massive radar technology, building the DEW line up in the Arctic, tracking ballistic missile submarines SOSUS, and all the related advances. Understanding the challenges and the capabilities needed to achieve similar success in the cyber realm has been a much more recent effort. However, the USA other nations have become more sophisticated at this. Often we know the means, the methods, and even the individual identities of not just state actors like the GRU in Russia, but of criminal groups that often work in concert with their home country. But the attacks in the USA have not been at the Pentagon’s defined act of war level.

The Obama Administration’s policy as clarified by the Pentagon is mostly classified, but there were about a dozen unclassified pages of it made public. My sense is that the responsible agencies do take longer to determine those responsible for attacks than kinetic or terrorist bombing attacks. But they do identify a lot of them. The key in this question originally about WMD and then Acts of War is the scale. The latter is restricted to those identified by the Pentagon. I’d be willing to bet a bottle of extra peaty Lagavulin that the perp of an attack on THAT scale would be uncovered pretty quickly as the highest priority. And on that scale, the designation that cyber attacks lie within the framework of the LOAC provides tor a proportional response. And the Pentagon declared such a response could be either cyber or kinetic.

You may remember - I can’t recall at the moment - whether the Bush declaration after 9/11 is actual policy - that any nation that arbors non-state actors within its boundaries is considered complicit and its borders ignored for retribution.. The Obama Administration did that by the incursion in a rather flagrant Pakistan to after it finally found bin Laden there. More recently, the Biden Administration OK’d  the pinpoint disintegration of al Qaeda leader al-Zawaihiri on his balcony in Kabul.  No time limits. All that aside, I agree with you that the attribution can be at least controversial politically because the evidence is so obscure, even unintelligible to many people.

[dan/california]

Everything that follows is my own opinion, and only that. Israel seem to think that its  relationship with Russia is critical for peace on their northern border. They seem view Russian weakness as at least as much a problem as Russian strength. Russia restrains Iran from taking full control of Syria, and allows Israel to strike various targets it finds truly threatening. The Israelis appear to be substantially concerned that if Russia Pulled out of Syria completely they would forced to occupy much of it themselves. There is ample evidence that would problematic at best. So Russia, Israel, and Iran maintain this weird meta-stable triangular diplomatic relationship. The war in Ukraine continually threatens to destabilize this, as has so many other things, but so far thus weird balance has held. that could change at any time as the drone strikes in Iran this weekend proved.

My biggest question is what do the Russians get out of it besides a naval base of the Mediterranean that NATO could obliterate on five minutes notice if it felt the need? I mean Russia's initial entry into Syria annoyed the bleep out of the U.S., but has to cost far more than it is bringing in. Is the base in Syria critical to Russia's other operations in Africa? The math just doesn't add up for me.

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's really tricky stuff, but not defining things more clearly is exactly why Russia, China, and others keep doing "implausible deniability" attacks.

Steve, I should have mentioned the important distinction the USA makes between cyber *spying*/classic espionage, and cyber *attacks*. Current tacit policies among active nations do allow the former spying - stealing documents, the cyber equivalent of planting bugs, etc, That’s because we are all engaged in it, most every day. None of the major players are willing to give this up.

But cyber *attacks* are considered in a different light. And the USA policy considers major attacks to be acts of war: “Cyber-attacks from foreign nations that threaten widespread US civilian casualties, like cutting off power supplies or shutting down emergency-responder networks, could be treated as an act of aggression under the new policy.” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-13614125    China and Russia have not done this. They do know the USA policy.

 

 

[Vet 0369]

9 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Enjoy the beer. It's 5PM somewhere. 

In most cases, beer is made from grain. Grain is a cereal. Therefore, if it’s acceptable to have cereal for breakfast, then it’s acceptable to have beer “on” your cereal! Wait a minute, Scotch whiskey is from the same grain as beer! I’m a genius!

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

In most cases, beer is made from grain. Grain is a cereal. Therefore, if it’s acceptable to have cereal for breakfast, then it’s acceptable to have beer “on” your cereal! Wait a minute, Scotch whiskey is from the same grain as beer! I’m a genius!

but you should have fruit on your cereal.  A nice cab would take care of that.