How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

Some details were providing on the expanded US training program for Ukraine in the Pentagon's December 15th briefing:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3248297/pentagon-press-secretary-air-force-brig-gen-pat-ryder-holds-an-on-camera-press/

 

Quote

Q:  Two quick questions.  On the training, when will the extended training begin?  And then can you just give a sense of what -- what combined arms maneuver training would look like beyond the -- the individual systems?  Can you just sort of fill that in a bit for us?  

GEN. RYDER:  Sure.  Thanks, Oren. So I won't get into specific dates other than to say we expect the training the starting in the January timeframe.  What you can expect to see is that we will, as mentioned, bring in battalion-sized units.  And it will begin with things like live fire exercises followed by squad-, platoon-, and company-level training that will then culminate in battalion-level maneuver training.  

Importantly, it will also include battalion headquarters staff training.  So the way to think about this is as you show up for your training, first you're doing the -- the classroom exercises to -- to better understand what it is that you're going to learn, right?  It's going to be crawl-walk-run.  And then you're going to shift to the practical application, starting from the -- from the squad-platoon to the battalion level of applying these concepts, culminating in a field exercise where you're getting into more advanced training scenarios, how to respond to situations.

So again, you -- you've heard Secretary Austin talk about that the equipment is important but it's how to take that equipment and apply it in the field in a way that's going to enable you to do combined arms and achieve decisive effects on the battlefield.  And so this training will -- will contribute to that.  Thanks.

 

[Huba]

Reportedly, a whole reconnaissance battalion from Crimea signed declarations refusing participation in the war, motivating it by the huge losses they are suffering. More cracks...

 

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Some details were providing on the expanded US training program for Ukraine in the Pentagon's December 15th briefing:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3248297/pentagon-press-secretary-air-force-brig-gen-pat-ryder-holds-an-on-camera-press/

 

 

And when the Ukrainian battalion leaves this accelerated training, it will be 10x better prepared to execute complex and nuanced operations than any Russian unit in the line

Steve

[FancyCat]

Recalled at the beginning of the war, looking at flight trackers as Ukraine got devoid of overhead aircraft and these 2x Turkish aircraft getting stuck in Kiyv, pondering whether they held emergency equipment for Ukraine's defense, and expecting them to fall into Russian hands or be destroyed. Glad to see neither happened.

Surprised it took so long for Turkey to negotiate their departure. Guess the leverage was not sufficient till now.

 

[Huba]

I ran across an hour long interview with Perun, of the UA themed PP presentations fame.

 

[dan/california]

Quote

Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine

 As of 6:17 pm EET

31°

Cloudy

Day 31° • Night 29°

 

 

High of 31F, Low of 29F, in case the whole thing isn't displaying...

The same warm weather that is confounding Putin's strategy of freezing Europe into submission is bleeping up Ukraines ability to get a real offensive underway. These temps are not going to result in the hard frozen ground that is needed for a real push. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by dan/california

[Huba]

Polish Institute of International Affairs prepared a 70 page long analysis of Ukraine's situation and perspectives regarding the major types of weapons it fields. It is not groundbreaking, but does a great job summarizing both what was already sent, and what the possibilities are.

For example:

Edited December 20, 2022 by Huba

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Reading Murz's piece and coming across his bit describing the Russians as a cargo cult made my day. If you'll excuse me, I will be doing Sarah Chalke's "Told you so" dance from Scrubs.

 

His whole piece just confirms it. They are too often doing what they are doing for the sake of doing it. Shelling the Ukrainians because that is what you do in a war, without understanding fully what you are really meant to be doing with it. A bit of a problem if you are running out of shells and tubes.

Full frontal infantry attacks, because they are supposed to be winning and winners can attack directly to the front and we need the headlines about us winning. If it was good enough for Zhukov, it's good enough for us now.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Some details were providing on the expanded US training program for Ukraine in the Pentagon's December 15th briefing:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3248297/pentagon-press-secretary-air-force-brig-gen-pat-ryder-holds-an-on-camera-press/

 

 

Soooooo basically a good ol fashioned, batt-level CMBS LAN weekend, but for months.... 

[Kinophile]

On 12/15/2022 at 7:23 AM, Zeleban said:

Warehouses and headquarters are destroyed, after which the Russian army gets a temporary knockout and the Ukrainian army has a window of opportunity to break through the Russian defense. After that, Russia withdraws warehouses and headquarters beyond the range of the new superweapon and a new expansion of the range of Ukrainian weapons is required.

If Ukraine, for example, receives ATACMS, the warehouses, headquarters and airfields will again be within the reach of Ukrainian troops, which will again sharply worsen the condition of Russian troops and again lead to defeat.

The days of glorious defeats of huge Russian columns are over, the war has changed a lot. Russia has shown the ability to adapt to new conditions. The only way for Ukraine to win this war is not to lose heart.

Whoever is able to take a hit gets a window of opportunity for success.

Plus,  I Guarantee Russian logistics has settled into its usual corrupt complacency and I doubt has a Plan B if an ATACAMS Long Range Snotting campaign starts up. 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

I ran across an hour long interview with Perun, of the UA themed PP presentations fame.

 

More Perun content is always good! Great find thank you

[Huba]

CNN confirms that JDAMs are going to Ukraine, and very soon:

 

[Taranis]

New French arms deliveries to Ukraine

Quote

 

France recently delivered Crotale rocket launchers and missile batteries to Ukraine and will continue its arms deliveries in early 2023, Emmanuel Macron announced in an interview with TF1 and LCI broadcast on Tuesday.

"In recent days, France has delivered additional weapons, rocket launchers, Crotales, equipment beyond what we had already done," said the French president, from the aircraft carrier Charles-de-Gaulle , off Egypt. "We are also working with the Minister of the Armed Forces [Sébastien Lecornu] so that in the first quarter we can again deliver useful weapons and ammunition, so that the Ukrainians can defend themselves against the bombings", added the head of the State, who was in Jordan on Tuesday for a regional summit.

Among the deliveries envisaged are those of new Caesar guns. Mr. Macron has not advanced on any figures; "it depends on the ongoing discussions" with Denmark, he said.

Since the start of the conflict in February, France has notably provided eighteen 155 mm Caesar guns with a range of 40 kilometers, mounted on trucks, anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles as well as forward armored vehicles. Paris now plans to supply kyiv between six and twelve additional Caesar guns, taken from an order intended for Denmark.

 

Source : Le Monde

[poesel]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

High of 31F, Low of 29F, in case the whole thing isn't displaying...

That is about 0 °C in non-retarded units.

[Holien]

Snake Island tour

[Huba]

This is interesting - it would be the first time he left Ukraine since the war broke out. He wouldn't be doing that if there wasn't a good enough reason, so we might expect some big announcements I guess.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Huba

[kevinkin]

In "HARMs" way?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1711586/Ukraine-live-war-Russia-Vladimir-Putin-US-missiles-border

[womble]

14 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

In "HARMs" way?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1711586/Ukraine-live-war-Russia-Vladimir-Putin-US-missiles-border

Can anyone shed light on whether this is a likely eventuation? The H stands for high-speed, I gather; is that speed fast enough to make them difficult targets to prosecute over their (relatively, for missiles) short range? Is it likely that UKR flyers would be launching HARM within range of the Russian border, or across it? What sort of system shoots down Anti-radar missiles? Presumably not one that's using radar...

Edit: or perhaps "shot down" is Russian optimism for "we pulled the fragments out of the wreckage of an S-400 complex..."

Edited December 20, 2022 by womble

[Huba]

Even more interesting news, what a day!

Edit:

@womble IIRC US only banned Ukraine from firing GMLRS across the RU border, rest of the munitions is fair game. There were multiple accounts, including pictures, of RU downing HARMs, most notably in Kherson. These missiles are fast, but rather large - something like TOR or Pantsir, that was specifically designed to protect larger SAMs shouldn't have that much problem with shooting them down - though I imagine that any failing brings sudden and harsh consequences

Edited December 20, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

42 minutes ago, Huba said:

This is interesting - it would be the first time he left Ukraine since the war broke out. He wouldn't be doing that if there wasn't a good enough reason, so we might expect some big announcements I guess.

Patriots have not been formally announced so I expect that to be it. Very smart move, a visit to the front lines and then a trip to the biggest sponsor of Ukraine. Good way PR wise.

[Huba]

Just now, FancyCat said:

Patriots have not been formally announced so I expect that to be it. Very smart move, a visit to the front lines and then a trip to the biggest sponsor of Ukraine. Good way PR wise.

I wonder if there will be something more. I read that US is retiring 2 squadrons of F15s that were based in Japan few years earlier than planned. 

[billbindc]

58 minutes ago, Huba said:

This is interesting - it would be the first time he left Ukraine since the war broke out. He wouldn't be doing that if there wasn't a good enough reason, so we might expect some big announcements I guess.

It’s quite a big moment in a lot of ways.

First, it’s an undeniable statement about the security of Ukrainian state that the Russian media will be unable to stop themselves from splashing onto every television between Donetsk and Vladivostok. The message will be that it’s evidence of American perfidy with Azov Nazis but what every Russian will still see is that things are going so well for Kyiv that Zelensky can take day trips to Washington. 

It also is having an effect in DC. Zelensky has real charisma and the ability to see and touch him will have a real effect on the politics of Ukraine aid. As above, it also provides tangible proof that aid to Ukraine is working. Americans will see him, see something that our aid has accomplished.

Don’t sleep on this. It’s a big moment for Ukraine and humiliating as hell for Russia.

[fireship4]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

JDAMs are going to Ukraine

Hope they get these: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ground-launched-small-diameter-bomb-would-double-ukraines-precision-strike-range

[Huba]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Don’t sleep on this. It’s a big moment for Ukraine and humiliating as hell for Russia.

There's 6 hour time difference between where I live and DC, but scratch that, I'm not gonna