How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

The other thought floating around my head is that everything to do an attack like this could be put on any random cargo ship and the whole show taken to Vladivostok or somewhere else. The port in Syria would be VERY amusing.

[Huba]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The other thought floating around my head is that everything to do an attack like this could be put on any random cargo ship and the whole show taken to Vladivostok or somewhere else. The port in Syria would be VERY amusing.

Naval strike at Vladivostok by Ukraine, a nation with no navy at all would drop some jaws, I give you that

Another amusing idea would be to have this UUVs creep up to the shore and launch a swarm of Switchblade 600/ Warmate drones, against say an airbase, or any other vulnerable installation close to the shore. I bet a 40ft craft could easily carry a dozen or more.

[dan/california]

This whole attack has also just changed base security requirements for every navy in the world. There are a lot of countries out there that could pull this off. We have been warned.

[RockinHarry]

8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Yes but the explosion was above the road. 

whatever, but they could do probably. That´s what I meant.

After all it´s not a new concept. Spiced up with latest tech I´d not underrate these things.

[RockinHarry]

8 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

There's very little detailed information, other than they're apparently working well against drones and the Ukrainians are urgently asking for more ammo. A few days ago, there was a video from Odessa that apparently shows some Gepard fire in the night sky. 

Thanks. Guess the few that got delivered are only used at key areas protecting key UKR installations anyway. Who´s delivering ammo btw? IIRC the swiss refused.

[dan/california]

This requires immediate in game testing.

[RockinHarry]

4 hours ago, chrisl said:

The Kerch bridge pylons aren’t set into bedrock like they’re supposed to be.  Which means they’re just sitting on/in silty bottom.    Displace a bunch of that silt from underneath one of the tall ones, or put some cracks in it, and the lever arm of the load might help it find a lower energy state. 75 kg probably won’t do it, but 500 kg might.  Doesn’t take a very big kayak to carry that.

Exactly. What do we know of UKR latest suicide boat UVs? Very little I´d say. A spiced up bigger version with some stealth tech, half submersed and bigger payload might likely exist already. As long as it´s in UKR hands, I don´t wanna know more. Just tip of the iceberg, once the f....g war ended and more info becomes available. Or not.

[dan/california]

Ukraine may be slow rolling Kherson just to kill as many Russians, and as much Russian artillery, as possible. As long as the Russians are stupid enough to feed meat to grinder AFU just cheerfully stands there and turns the handle.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

I am curious if Ukrainians prepared for this move planning Sevastopol attack. I hope so.

Ages ago (i.e. several weeks) I argued that Ukraine needs to think long and hard about taking back pre-2022 territory, especially Crimea.  I never said they shouldn't do it, I just said that they have to be super careful to take into consideration what Russia might do in response.  Which will be nearly impossible to do, but it has to be at least attempted.  If Ukraine didn't think Russia would do something to retaliate against this particular attack then they hopefully will learn a lesson from it.  If they did anticipate Russia's next move, then I hope they guessed correctly.  If they did, then I expect they have something else planned.

Steve

[Vergeltungswaffe]

20 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

 

PS I promise not to do this again. Honest. Unless in the truly unlikely and bizarre event that they actually win the Series itself.

 

Thankfully, we won't have to worry about that.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ages ago (i.e. several weeks) I argued that Ukraine needs to think long and hard about taking back pre-2022 territory, especially Crimea.  I never said they shouldn't do it, I just said that they have to be super careful to take into consideration what Russia might do in response.  Which will be nearly impossible to do, but it has to be at least attempted.  If Ukraine didn't think Russia would do something to retaliate against this particular attack then they hopefully will learn a lesson from it.  If they did anticipate Russia's next move, then I hope they guessed correctly.  If they did, then I expect they have something else planned.

Steve

Russia was threatening to pull out of the grain deal days ago, and for that matter weeks ago. If they hadn't pulled out this week over the USV strike, they would have pulled out next week over a Himarsed convoy of hapless mobiks, or something. Putin is losing, and he has realized time isn't on his side after all. That winter is going to push Russian KIA from 500 a day to 1000. He is desperate to kick the the chessboard over. So what NATO needs to do is say fine and give Ukraine the hardware to make Russia's casualties 2000 KIA a day. It is a war, you have to kill them until THEY know they are beaten. I can't remember who I stole that from, but it is true. Boiling the frog slowly is just running up the body count on both sides. We need to blow pot out of the kitchen and three houses over, and send the Russian army HOME.

 

The frog needs to be part of that smear on the ceiling.

Edited October 30, 2022 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

Just finishing this one up...

On 10/28/2022 at 3:11 PM, IanL said:

I do love the idea of Ianstan and being an all powerful dictator.

Of course you do!  We Americans know the polite, considerate public face of Canada is just a mask to hide your true power hunger nature.

On 10/28/2022 at 3:11 PM, IanL said:

I think a lot of what you and @The_Capt are writing is in violent agreement with just a slightly different point of view.

It actually makes him wilfully uninformed.

And here we get into "willfully" problems as well as "delusional" issues.

No dictator stets up his state to uninformed or misinformed to him, the glorious leader.  That results from side effects of standard autocratic practices.  Since dictators don't seem to understand that, they constantly make the same mistakes over and over again.  Eventually. 

Earlier on in his tenure as Russia's autocrat he didn't purge his inner and slightly outer circles of smart and capable people.  That happened over time as a fairly routine process of dictatorships under stress over time.  Therefore, Putin did not willfully create a system that fed him delusional information from which to make critical decisions.  That was merely a side effect of Putin doing certain things to maintain his power.

I think Putin has figured this out to some extent and is attempting to correct for it.  See below.

On 10/28/2022 at 3:11 PM, IanL said:

I think this is important. Putin isn't just a victim of becoming isolated he designed his regime that way. He chose to operate that way. Putin is supposed to be a bright guy, I have no doubt he is. But in his younger years he must have watched dictator after dictator fall because they did exactly what he did. Heck leaders in democratic countries get disconnected and do dumb stuff too (just not as dramatic - mostly because they get tossed before they get that far). He must have / should have know that is a side effect of taking power and running a dictatorship. And yet he made the exact same mistakes himself...

Putin watchers have pointed out, for a long time, that Putin is not a student of history.  Yes he saw how autocratic systems failed, but he might have taken the wrong lessons from it.  Ego and self assurance are traits that are necessary for autocratic leaders in the first place, so not surprisingly many look at the historical record and think "they got overthrown because they weren't ruthless enough".

 

OK, so WHY is all of this hair splitting important?  Because of what TheCapt has been banging on and on about in his polite Canadian way... we have to be very careful to not presume that Russia is predetermined to Suck or at least Suck as badly as it has been so far.

We all agree that Putin has made some horribly bad decisions and we think horribly bad information was a big part of it.  If those decisions were simply "delusional", then it's probable that this aspect of the war will continue.  Delusional people tend to become more delusional, not less, in stressful situations.

However, if Putin is not delusional, but merely poorly informed, there's a chance he'll figure this out and take steps to secure better information to base decisions on.  If that happens it is logical to presume it will make the war more difficult to fight as Russia should then make fewer mistakes or at least lessen the severity of the mistakes. 

In fact, I think we're already seeing this happening.  My tea leaf reading concludes that Russia's catastrophic losses and limitations are being presented to Putin fairly accurately.  I also suspect someone is telling him a reasonable picture of Ukraine's capabilities, militarily and as a nation of people.  This was likely achieved by putting the fear of windows and lead poisoning into people who previously reported crap info to him.  Which means things like Bakhmut attacks and partial mobilization are the result of informed decisions, not delusions.  The difference is important because it may mean Bakhmut and cannon fodder are knowingly part of a larger strategy which we aren't aware of yet, not the product of abject stupidity and/or egos.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

From ISW's Oct 28th report:

Quote

Russian military mobilization is likely significantly increasing labor scarcity in Russia’s labor market. Some Russian federal subjects are sending college students as replacement workers to offset the economic impacts of military mobilization. Kemerovo Oblast Governor Sergei Tsivilev announced a “labor mobilization” of final year university and technical college students on October 21 to work at industrial enterprises to replace workers who were mobilized for the war in Ukraine.[62] Russian business newspaper RBK reported on October 27 that regional authorities in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug and in the Kaluga, Kurgan, Kursk, Leningrad, and Chelyabinsk oblasts are considering undertaking similar ”labor mobilization” of fourth-year students.[63] Mobilization has directly removed at least 300,000 men from the labor pool, and at least 700,000 Russian citizens have fled Russia since mobilization began.[64]

And from their 29th report:

Quote

Damage to Black Sea Fleet vessels is unclear at this time. The Russian MoD claimed that the attack inflicted minor damage against BSF minesweeper Ivan Golubets and a protective barrier in the south bay.[5] Russian officials did not acknowledge any damage to a Grigorovich-class frigate, similar to how the Russian MoD denied any damage to the cruiser Moskva when Ukrainian forces sunk it on April 14. Ukrainian officials have not claimed responsibility for the attack as of this publication.

...

The Black Sea Fleet has three Grigorovich-class frigates, all of which are capable of firing Kalibr cruise missiles. A Ukrainian decision to target Kalibr-capable frigate at this time makes sense given the intensified Russian drone and missile strike campaign targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. If Kyiv ordered this attack, it would have been a proportionate, even restrained, response to the extensive Russian strategic bombing campaign attacking civilian targets throughout Ukraine over the past few weeks.

We've been speculating about what damage Ukraine managed to do and not do based on various OSINT.  I think we should presume whatever damage Russia says was done to its ships is an understatement.  In addition to Moskva, Russia's official information about the Saki airbase strike and the bridge attacks on Kherson and Kerch were all wildly off the mark.

Based on what we know about these USVs of Ukraine, the damage Russia is reporting seems to me very inconsistent.  These things are designed to rip a hole in the hull at the waterline, not damage radar systems or what not.  To me it seems the boats hit at least two ships.  If so, I think it's probable the more serious reports of damage are closer to the truth than the official story.

Steve

[dan/california]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just finishing this one up...

Of course you do!  We Americans know the polite, considerate public face of Canada is just a mask to hide your true power hunger nature.

And here we get into "willfully" problems as well as "delusional" issues.

No dictator stets up his state to uninformed or misinformed to him, the glorious leader.  That results from side effects of standard autocratic practices.  Since dictators don't seem to understand that, they constantly make the same mistakes over and over again.  Eventually. 

Earlier on in his tenure as Russia's autocrat he didn't purge his inner and slightly outer circles of smart and capable people.  That happened over time as a fairly routine process of dictatorships under stress over time.  Therefore, Putin did not willfully create a system that fed him delusional information from which to make critical decisions.  That was merely a side effect of Putin doing certain things to maintain his power.

I think Putin has figured this out to some extent and is attempting to correct for it.  See below.

Putin watchers have pointed out, for a long time, that Putin is not a student of history.  Yes he saw how autocratic systems failed, but he might have taken the wrong lessons from it.  Ego and self assurance are traits that are necessary for autocratic leaders in the first place, so not surprisingly many look at the historical record and think "they got overthrown because they weren't ruthless enough".

 

OK, so WHY is all of this hair splitting important?  Because of what TheCapt has been banging on and on about in his polite Canadian way... we have to be very careful to not presume that Russia is predetermined to Suck or at least Suck as badly as it has been so far.

We all agree that Putin has made some horribly bad decisions and we think horribly bad information was a big part of it.  If those decisions were simply "delusional", then it's probable that this aspect of the war will continue.  Delusional people tend to become more delusional, not less, in stressful situations.

However, if Putin is not delusional, but merely poorly informed, there's a chance he'll figure this out and take steps to secure better information to base decisions on.  If that happens it is logical to presume it will make the war more difficult to fight as Russia should then make fewer mistakes or at least lessen the severity of the mistakes. 

In fact, I think we're already seeing this happening.  My tea leaf reading concludes that Russia's catastrophic losses and limitations are being presented to Putin fairly accurately.  I also suspect someone is telling him a reasonable picture of Ukraine's capabilities, militarily and as a nation of people.  This was likely achieved by putting the fear of windows and lead poisoning into people who previously reported crap info to him.  Which means things like Bakhmut attacks and partial mobilization are the result of informed decisions, not delusions.  The difference is important because it may mean Bakhmut and cannon fodder are knowingly part of a larger strategy which we aren't aware of yet, not the product of abject stupidity and/or egos.

Steve

Which is why Ukraine needs to win this fast, and not give Putin time to reorganize around competent people. 

 

Edit: Winning fast and making Putin very unhappy are completely coincident geometric spaces. doing one means doing the other. And being mad seems to make him do stupid things, this was never going to be a smooth ride.

Edited October 30, 2022 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

VICE News did a short piece on using Russian military phone info as OSINT to track what's going on within Russia and at the Russian front:

 

Steve

[chuckdyke]

People make decisions based on past experiences. putin makes his decisions on the basis when he was in charge of the disinformation department of the KGB.

 

[dan/california]

Himars and Excalibur being applied systematically to Russian artillery.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ages ago (i.e. several weeks) I argued that Ukraine needs to think long and hard about taking back pre-2022 territory, especially Crimea.  I never said they shouldn't do it, I just said that they have to be super careful to take into consideration what Russia might do in response.  Which will be nearly impossible to do, but it has to be at least attempted.  If Ukraine didn't think Russia would do something to retaliate against this particular attack then they hopefully will learn a lesson from it.  If they did anticipate Russia's next move, then I hope they guessed correctly.  If they did, then I expect they have something else planned.

Steve

Let me come at this one more way. Putin started this war, with as little justification as any conflict in human history. Putin has fought this war with a rather unique combination of barbarity and incompetence, exceptional in both regards.  Putin is LOSING this war, at an accelerating rate in my opinion. If Putin wants to end this war still owning Crimea he needs to fly to Istanbul with a peace offer that gives Ukraine EVERY other thing it could possibly ask for, except maybe his own head. A trillion dollars in reparations, EU and NATO membership, every single deportee and POW or the bodies of same. That woman in charge deporting children delivered to the Hague. Or he can keep doubling down until The Russian empire busts into 10 or 15 pieces, it is on him.

 He could also take a swing at ending civilization, but it needs to be CLEAR to him, and everyone else in the Russian government that the one SURE consequence of that is is that Russian is a deader language than Sumerian in, about 45 minutes.

Edited October 30, 2022 by dan/california

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

This requires immediate in game testing.

Let me introduce you to French tank platoon (in armored formations):

https://youtu.be/aKEBYcDj8Tw

EDIT: and the company:

Edited October 30, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[RockinHarry]

5 hours ago, RockinHarry said:

whatever, but they could do probably. That´s what I meant.

After all it´s not a new concept. Spiced up with latest tech I´d not underrate these things.

Quite an interesting little story btw. (Raid on souda bay 1941)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raid_on_Souda_Bay

[NamEndedAllen]

(deleted)

Edited October 30, 2022 by NamEndedAllen
human error

[Zeleban]

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Site that visualizes the Oryx visually confirmed losses data. With constant updates: https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine

some interesting examples:

[Der Zeitgeist]

6 hours ago, RockinHarry said:

Thanks. Guess the few that got delivered are only used at key areas protecting key UKR installations anyway. Who´s delivering ammo btw? IIRC the swiss refused.

I'm not following this in every detail, but AFAIK, Nammo in Norway was seen a secondary source for ammunition, but they may have some problems producing the FAPDS rounds that the Gepard is apparently most effective with. Now the German government is putting some additional pressure on Switzerland, I guess we'll have to see how that goes. 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Der Zeitgeist

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Let me introduce you to French tank platoon (in armored formations):

https://youtu.be/aKEBYcDj8Tw

EDIT: and the company:

Personaly, the French organization reminds me more the WW2 US Tank Destroyer Bn (M20/M10).

I also think that the Ukrainian use is more oriented as an accompanying infantry than the French version. The VBL is above all a Scout Car (M20 like) and is used to scout the way of the tanks and the scouts can disembark for close security when the tanks are in supply or awaiting progression. The true support infantry role comes from the AIFV section (VBCI) attached to it. I nitpick and it's IMHO.

I can't say that with certainty because I served in an artillery regiment and not a tank regiment. The French army is very focused on low-level inter-arms cooperation by bringing together platoons from different battalions (Regiments in French) within a GTIA/SGTIA (our CM BTG equivalent), as was the case in Afghanistan (However, I saw it with my own eyes). A VBCI company thus found itself with AMX-10RC, VABs with 120mm mortars and engineer vehicles when this is not part of the theoretical organization.