How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

 

The merchant ship found the belongings of sailors from the cruiser Moskva.

[FancyCat]

19 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Not a great video but friendly fire, accidents, happen especially in wartime. Rest in peace.

I'm cautious about subscribing any broad picture of the war to specific individual incidents like this Wagner vet getting beat up. Might just be a drunken dude getting too deep, certainly a common scenario for any soldier or person really anywhere.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Sounds like they need some kind of "intervention" by China and India. Not the normal state-like intervention, mind you, but one where Putin comes into the conference room one day and everyone is there going "It is about the invasions." and then they all read out their statements one by one etc.

A good analogy!  Yes, I think that is very much what Xi and Modi just did.  Still diplomatic, but I think the message they sent was pretty clear that Russia is the one that has to end this war, not Ukraine and not the West.  Again, I don't know how much impact this will have on Putin's thinking because his concerns are what happens when he even starts discussing anything other than the maximal goals he started the war with.

The report that Putin rejected Ukrainian offers in the first week of the war shows that he had already calculated that this was an "all or nothing" war.  Because he should have seen, even in the first week, that he could have gotten most of what he said he wanted without risking a military calamity.  A younger Putin would have likely accepted it and then plotted a way to get more later.  But this older Putin, who is obviously not in great health, decided now was the only chance to get everything he wanted.  Hence the all or nothing position.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

20 minute report from the Kherson front. Again with hromadske they show the human experience of the Ukrainian soldier. Lost of interviews.

Subtitled. 

[Huba]

 

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

damn taht looks like an entire carton went up,

[Huba]

Another geolocation with a map on the eastern side of Oskil. IMO what will happen next is UA will establish itself along the whole eastern bank, connecting various crossings, and will keep probing and taking ground east of it, until reaching more determined RU resistance, perhaps along the Troitske - Svatovo - Kreminna line (or if RU are lucky, along some forward line a bit west to it). Meaning that there might not be a big offensive immediately, but UA will gradually take over indefensible swath of land while RU established some defenses further east.

More news:

 

Edited September 16, 2022 by Huba

[danfrodo]

41 minutes ago, Huba said:

Another geolocation with a map on the eastern side of Oskil. IMO what will happen next is UA will establish itself along the whole eastern bank, connecting various crossings, and will keep probing and taking ground east of it, until reaching more determined RU resistance, perhaps along the Troitske - Svatovo - Kreminna line (or if RU are lucky, along some forward line a bit west to it). Meaning that there might not be a big offensive immediately, but UA will gradually take over indefensible swath of land while RU established some defenses further east.

More news:

 

This remind anyone of anything from WW2?  Germans think they can hold Dnieper line but simply don't have enough men.  Soviets get a couple bridgeheads which hold out and then expand.  yep, if RU thought the river would save them they seem to be greatly mistaken.  And there's that lovely rail line not too far away.  If RU loses that then they are well and truly messed up.  

"non-linear" was mentioned in posts above.  When I use that, I mean anything that re-directs current trajectories.  We tend to look at current trends and extrapolate on those vectors.  So if on the losing side of those vectors one needs to move off where those lines go.  Right now everything is trending down for RU.  So will need events to change that, like big radiation spill or something?  AKA flipping the chessboard.

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, hcrof said:

Can anyone comment on this Twitter thread? Seems to imply the Kherson front is reaching a breaking point, but the maps are not nearly as good as Grigb's:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1570740207892434946

I do not make maps for Kherson for a time being because there are no much progress and/or info. As soon as there is clear progress, I will make new ones. So far it is grinding match will little progress here and there.

But few things I would like to comment

Unfortunately, Oleksandrivka is not liberated. We know it becasue RU published a video from there recently. Here is geolocation from UKR.

 

 

Here he says this week UKR overran several position toward Soldatske (for example Pravdine) but Soldatske was captured some time ago and Pravdine was attacked today with Rybar claimed UKR attack was sort of defeated. So, we are waiting for tomorrow to see what's going on there. 

 

Here he says RU forces retreated for Kisilevka but around 14-15 of September RU were still there with no sign of retreat. 

 

Here Bridgehead is too shallow - UKR are pushing to Chkalove and beyond (bottom of the map). But Bruskinse is neither captured nor contested. So far it seems RU controls it. 

So, I see too many questionable statements that are not aligned with what I see myself. Sorry.

 

[Huba]

RU media report fighting whole divisions made up exclusively of Americans, British and Poles. Looks like NATO arrived in Ukraine in force, but they are holding up heroically

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Well now that Russia is "officially" fighting NATO in Ukraine can we start providing Ukraine some F-16s, tanks and ATACMS?

Yeah I know this is propaganda for an internal audience but wow is it sad that people in Russia actually believe it.

 

Edited September 16, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

I'm trying to keep track of the progress there the best I can, using the few RU Telegram channels, as UA hardly reports anything. So from what I gathered:

More or less agreed on everything you wrote. Just a little addition - According to Mashkovets for unknow reason RU command is holding teeth and nails to the line Davidiv Brid -Arkhangelske (or rather Arkhangelse outskirts). So, UKR pushing from Visokopillya is trying to
squeeze out RU out of there.  

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

More or less agreed on everything you wrote. Just a little addition - According to Mashkovets for unknow reason RU command is holding teeth and nails to the line Davidiv Brid -Arkhangelske (or rather Arkhangelse outskirts). So, UKR pushing from Visokopillya is trying to
squeeze out RU out of there.  

Right, there seems to be quite a lot of fighting there too, but not a lot ground changed hands recently.
In my opinion RU has to keep the Inhulets line. If they abandon it, especially Davidyv Brid, UA will widen it's bridgehead and will be able to move artillery in, and then it's game over for the whole northern grouping.

Edited September 16, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

Good Washington Post article (might be paywalled) reporting from Izyum:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/15/letters-left-behind-by-demoralized-russian-soldiers-they-fled/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37f07f1%2F632497aef3d9003c58db65b2%2F5b6a1f5bade4e277958a3cb5%2F15%2F72%2F632497aef3d9003c58db65b2&wp_cu=e17d566bfc90044414eb36edd5675ce3|72E0F70E3B4B42CEE0530100007F2E01

From our perspective here, the most important element is the letters that Russian soldiers wrote and left behind.  It was reported a bunch of pages ago as well.  The letters detail how exhausted, mentally and physically, the Russian soldiers are.  In particular that they haven't had any meaningful leave from duty.  And why is that?  Because Russia doesn't have the soldiers needed for rotation.  Even individual rotations add up to a significant loss of manpower at the front.

Another element in the article was detailing Russian soldiers breaking into Ukrainian homes and stealing civilian clothes in a state of panic.  Aside from the stories of this happening I've seen pictures of Russian soldiers rounded up by Ukrainian forces in civilian clothing.

Not directly related to the military topic of this thread is the disturbing mention of Russia's inviting Ukrainian kids to come to "summer camps" in Russia.  Obviously this is to depopulate Ukraine of young people and, potentially, increase the population of Russia.  We've seen countless examples of this with the filtration camps.  But this one is, in my mind, particularly evil.

Steve

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, Huba said:

Right, there seems to be quite a lot of fighting there too, but not a lot ground changed hands recently.
In my opinion RU has to keep the Inhulets line. If they abandon it, especially Davidyv Brid, UA will widen it's bridgehead and be able to move artillery in it, and the it's game over of the whole northern grouping.

The entire game is the northern half of the Kherson pocket is 155 range of Nova Khahovka. When a steady rain of air burst starts on the portion of the bridge built on the dam everything north of the Inhulets is DONE. In rare moment of clarity the Russians seem to actually realize this and are 100% committed to hold it off as long as possible.

Edited September 16, 2022 by dan/california

[RandomCommenter]

31 minutes ago, Huba said:

RU media report fighting whole divisions made up exclusively of Americans, British and Poles. Looks like NATO arrived in Ukraine in force, but they are holding up heroically

 

The casual racism in this video is disgusting.

It makes me wonder if NATO could not give the Ukrainians a precision guided cruise missile to take out this studio during a live broadcast. Now that would be TV worth watching!

 

(I jest of course. Well, half jest).

 

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, Grigb said:

So, I see too many questionable statements that are not aligned with what I see myself. Sorry.

Yeah, the lack of reliable information out of Kherson is frustrating for sure.  I've seen too many reports of this or that happening only to see a few days later that it wasn't true or is at least contested.

However, it is clear that Russians are conducting a pretty competent defense.  The quality of these units seems to be decent and the months of preparation reasonably well done.

Steve

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

However, it is clear that Russians are conducting a pretty competent defense.  The quality of these units seems to be decent and the months of preparation reasonably well done.

Steve

which will make the defeat of this force all the more devastating.  It is just a matter of time and with what is likely the best of the RA dead, in POW camps or wet from swimming the river with no weapons...  what is Russia going to hold the south with if it doesn't get this force back across the river?  

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, the lack of reliable information out of Kherson is frustrating for sure.  I've seen too many reports of this or that happening only to see a few days later that it wasn't true or is at least contested.

However, it is clear that Russians are conducting a pretty competent defense.  The quality of these units seems to be decent and the months of preparation reasonably well done.

Steve

Committing so many of their best troop to fight in a position with such large and unfixable logistics issues was a grave strategic mistake though. 

[Huba]

They should've withdrawn from the whole right bank Kherson before UA put a significant pressure on it. Right now I don't see how that is possible. At best I think they will be able to evacuate the majority of men from the better unit, but without heavy equipment (well perhaps, they can gradually withdraw the most important pieces starting now, but not en masse). IMO compared to Kharkiv, even including the rapidly incoming withdrawal from the eastern Luhansk oblast, will be nothing compared to defeat in Kherson. I think expecting 10K RU losses there is not overly optimistic.

[dan/california]

For instance the Russians have absolutely nobody to stop the Ukrainians from doing this...and then maybe doing it some more. Still not clear where the Russians are going to be able to hold north of Lugansk. It would be a bit embarrassing if Ukraine can spend the winter pinking with Excalibur rounds at anything in downtown Lugansk.

[Huba]

I'm not this point was made here during our discussions about the future Russian collapse, but as the guy in this tweet mentions, apart from Kadyrow and Prygozhing, the newly raised regional battalion definitely add to a risk of civil war...

Oh, and more fun in the CTFO:

 

Edited September 16, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

The casual racism in this video is disgusting.

Yup, but the last bit really shows the corner they paint themselves into when doing so.  Paraphrasing, "we now know why we're losing.  We're not just fighting Ukraine, an inferior opponent, but also all of NATO and the United States.  We should be comforted by that because it means there's a reason we're losing.  Just look at the black American for evidence!" "Yes, but black people are an inferior race, so should we really feel much better about that?"

Years of Russian propaganda telling the population that Russia could take out NATO in a fight has just gone out the window.  Increasingly we hear/see Russians saying that suddenly, overnight, NATO became competent and well armed with superior weapons.  Logically, someone listening to this crap should think "OK, so we've been lied to about that, what else have we been lied to about?"  Sadly, that's not the way Humans think.  I see it around me all the time with our domestic politics.  Doesn't matter how often it's shown what they hear is a lie, they maintain their loyalty.

7 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

It makes me wonder if NATO could not give the Ukrainians a precision guided cruise missile to take out this studio during a live broadcast. Now that would be TV worth watching!

 

(I jest of course. Well, half jest).

 

You're probably only 1/4 jesting.  Which is fine

Steve

[dan/california]

Just now, Huba said:

I'm not this point was made here during our discussions about the future Russian collapse, but as the guy in this tweet mentions, apart from Kadyrow and Prygozhing, the newly raised regional battalion definitely add to a risk of civil war...

 

I think we brought up ten or so pages ago. The loss of faith in the army is near total, and warlordism might be right around the corner. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of folks.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

This video is extremely interesting

• Wagnerite is clearly gopnik. Gopnik is not just poor youngster. It is poor youngster who decided to follow the career of criminal but who is not a full blown criminal yet (he might not become one at all). It is like proto-urka
• It shows that criminal-urka-prison culture is already spread among Wagnerites. 
• It also shows that there are cool professional Mercs outfits that are being shown to journalists, but there are also cannon fodder outfits consisting of trash like this gopnik.
• Conflict between Wagnerites and RU state forces is inevitable. Gopniks are universally despised by RU society because they love to show off aggressively. They are especially despised by any troops related to law enforcement like Rosguardia. Hence the conflict - drunk Wagnerite gopnik tried to show off aggressively, lost control of himself and hit RG troop and was immediately beaten by angry RG troops who nevertheless were afraid of him.
• Wagnerite gopnik had time to say that he would call his boys - well, well, well, wagnerites already believe they are above the law and can resolve any issues with law enforcing agencies just by threatening them.

Something is extremely rotten in RU already.