How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

Quote

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday suggested that the US was deliberately attempting to prolong the Ukraine war in order to preserve its power. His remarks ignored the fact that he could call Russian troops home whenever he wants. 

"They need conflicts to retain their hegemony," Putin said of the US during remarks at a security conference in Moscow, per the Associated Press. "That's why they have turned the Ukrainian people into cannon fodder.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-blamed-the-us-for-dragging-the-war-in-ukraine-out-even-though-he-could-call-russian-troops-home-at-any-moment/ar-AA10JH8z?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1722cd07b5d44e419ff7f1e722967650
 

waaaahhhh!  Sounds like crying to me.  Somebody's folks are cannon fodder, but I don't think they are Ukrainian.

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

“So Russia has kind of taught everybody that a counteroffensive requires huge amounts of manpower like a giant fist and just go in one direction,” he said, but “a Ukrainian counteroffensive looks very different. We don’t use the tactics of the 60s and 70s, of the last century.”

This is very interesting.  The Ukrainian defence at the beginning of this war did not look like a traditional conventional defensive, and it worked brilliantly.  This sounds a lot like they have solved for offensive as well, but it also will not be traditional or conventional.

Could just be disinformation to keep the RA guessing, or maybe the UA is going to do something to melt our doctrine.  Many have long suspected that something was up - a lot of ideas back and forth.  The UA feels like it is building towards something.

[Harmon Rabb]

28 minutes ago, sburke said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-blamed-the-us-for-dragging-the-war-in-ukraine-out-even-though-he-could-call-russian-troops-home-at-any-moment/ar-AA10JH8z?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1722cd07b5d44e419ff7f1e722967650
 

waaaahhhh!  Sounds like crying to me.  Somebody's folks are cannon fodder, but I don't think they are Ukrainian.

That Putin is such a humanitarian always looking out for the welfare the Ukrainian people, as he invades their country and kills tens of thousands of people in a war that is about cynically grabbing territory.

Yes this war will be "dragged on" by the U.S. until Russia learns the errors of their ways and ends this illegal invasion.

[dan/california]

New Jomni, He seems to think the Ukrainians are the ones with most of the options.

[AlsatianFelix]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wq1tjy/multiple_russian_soldiers_are_hit_by_a_drone/

Nonexistent unit cohesion, none. Zero attempt to help casualties. 

The first guy was already carrying one guy with a fireman carry. He can't carry them all.

[Artkin]

39 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

The first guy was already carrying one guy with a fireman carry. He can't carry them all.

Good eye, obviously 4 men having explosives dropped on their heads wouldn't speak for any military anyway. 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, AlsatianFelix said:

The first guy was already carrying one guy with a fireman carry. He can't carry them all.

I admit I couldn't figure out what he was carrying. But I stopped giving the Russians credit when they didn't take the just kidding option after week one.

[dan/california]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wpt21c/ukrainian_artillery_strike_on_russian_infantry/

Tank Round, IED, or really good artillery shooting? It could be a TRP? they were walking right down the middle of the road.

[Aragorn2002]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

Poland is gearing up to have the second or third strongest land army in the world. Triply so when you consider it will all be new top grade stuff that can hit what it aims at. Although I rather expect half of the first few graduating classes from that shiny new school to be from just a bit further east.

Another good reason for the Bundeswehr to drastically increase and modernize it's forces.

[Butschi]

11 hours ago, FancyCat said:

October 2021, the U.S knew that Russia was going to conduct a full scale invasion with multiple axis of attack with the intent to annex most or all of Ukraine.

Do they provide actual proof or is it just a claim after the fact?

It is sad if the CIA or whoever had real proof and nobody believed them but I have to admit I highly doubt everything that comes from a US government saying we know X because of intelligence agency Y. In the past we have been lied to in this way just a little bit too often.

Also, according to members of the former German government not even the Ukrainians believed in a full scale invasion.

[kraze]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

Do they provide actual proof or is it just a claim after the fact?

It is sad if the CIA or whoever had real proof and nobody believed them but I have to admit I highly doubt everything that comes from a US government saying we know X because of intelligence agency Y. In the past we have been lied to in this way just a little bit too often.

Also, according to members of the former German government not even the Ukrainians believed in a full scale invasion.

Any sane Ukrainian knew that Russia was planning a full scale invasion as early as spring 2021 (and anyone with a historic background knew they were planning that invasion since 1991). In fact it was pretty huge - russians have pulled nearly 90000 troops to our borders under the classic guise of "doing exercises". But in May 2021 they decided 90k rapists probably wouldn't be enough to do a 3 day war, so decided to double that number over the next half of a year.

Of course I have my view on why nobody listened to Americans in autumn 2021, but I'll keep it to myself until after the victory when heads of the responsible will hopefully fly en masse, so to speak.

Edited August 17, 2022 by kraze

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

Also, according to members of the former German government not even the Ukrainians believed in a full scale invasion.

Quite frankly, nobody in the western world did.

[Grey_Fox]

34 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Quite frankly, nobody in the western world did.

The US did. Biden was announcing to the world that the invasion was coming.

[DesertFox]

10 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

The US did. Biden was announcing to the world that the invasion was coming.

Sorry, yes you are correct.

US embassy in Ukraine ‘requests staff evacuation’ amid war fears | Ukraine | The Guardian

[Aragorn2002]

55 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Quite frankly, nobody in the western world did.

Except the Baltic people.

[Ts4EVER]

24 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

The US did. Biden was announcing to the world that the invasion was coming.

Yeah but to be fair, the US secret services have a history of screaming about nonsense to justify wars, they shouldn't be to shocked that nobody believes them anymore.

[Beleg85]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/16/creating-chaos-zelenskiys-adviser-outlines-ukraines-military-strategy

Interesting link to interview with Podolyak about Ukrainian aims in this phase of the war.

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Quite frankly, nobody in the western world did.

Oh, plenty of people did, boths experts and commoners. Even some politicians here and there. NATO was preparing contingency plans long before. But most governments were mainly in "OMG I can't believe it" mode.

I would like to think this will be lesson for the future, but knowing how Europeans are unaccustomed to cope with the danger of massive violence I would be pessimistic. It's easier to deny reality or push responsibility for the bloodshed on locals and their "strange ways" (in this case Ukrainians).

Edited August 17, 2022 by Beleg85

[Letter from Prague]

I think it was pretty obvious by the time they 1) moved people right next to Kyiv 2) officially declared they are definitely not going to invade (with thousands trolls and a deluge of posts how they will not invade and it is "western wamongering").

No need to put people next to Kyiv for limited invastion + Russia always lies - by that time who didn't accept it was deluding themselves. Which was a lot of people of course.

But looking at how the pre-war supply of weapons to Ukraine spiked in fall 2021, I'm sure US knew pretty early.

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Quite frankly, nobody in the western world did.

I should amend that to: "Wanted to believe that an invasion would REALLY happen." With hindsight sadly we know better now.

[Kinophile]

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This is very interesting.  The Ukrainian defence at the beginning of this war did not look like a traditional conventional defensive, and it worked brilliantly.  This sounds a lot like they have solved for offensive as well, but it also will not be traditional or conventional.

Could just be disinformation to keep the RA guessing, or maybe the UA is going to do something to melt our doctrine.  Many have long suspected that something was up - a lot of ideas back and forth.  The UA feels like it is building towards something.

It feels like with perceptions of Tsunami - Russia (and many others) expect it to look like this, big,  dramatic, pure cinema:

But the reality is this,  "slower", lower,  but more extesive, coming in multiple  waves and is just as impossible to defend against:

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

Any sane Ukrainian knew that Russia was planning a full scale invasion as early as spring 2021 (and anyone with a historic background knew they were planning that invasion since 1991). In fact it was pretty huge - russians have pulled nearly 90000 troops to our borders under the classic guise of "doing exercises". But in May 2021 they decided 90k rapists probably wouldn't be enough to do a 3 day war, so decided to double that number over the next half of a year.

Of course I have my view on why nobody listened to Americans in autumn 2021, but I'll keep it to myself until after the victory when heads of the responsible will hopefully fly en masse, so to speak.

It's easy to say that in hindsight, I doubt many would have bet money on it before.

[Letter from Prague]

13 minutes ago, Butschi said:

It's easy to say that in hindsight, I doubt many would have bet money on it before.

I think this is just you being German. Everyone in Eastern Europe knew Russian attack is just a matter of time. 2008, 2014, of course they were going to continue.

And not just them, this is Combat Mission: Black Sea forum section after all.

EDIT: especially with Russians spreading anti-nuclear propaganda and building Nord Stream 2. In hindsight, those are just further facets of their plan to subjugate Europe.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Grey_Fox said:

The US did. Biden was announcing to the world that the invasion was coming.

I'm not saying Biden didn't know or believe in an actual invasion but the fact that he announced it to the world is not a proof that he did. It could also have been a bluff to discourage Putin from trying anything more aggressive.

Btw. Scholz also claims to have known already back in winter(?) 2021 and prepared accordingly. 

[Butschi]

1 minute ago, Letter from Prague said:

I think this is just you being German. Everyone in Eastern Europe knew Russian attack is just a matter of time. 2008, 2014, of course they were going to continue.

And not just them, this is Combat Mission: Black Sea forum section after all.

I don't think me being German has much to do with it.

"Everyone in Eastern Europe knew" is an extremely bold statement. "Suspected" or "feared" is probably much closer to the truth. "just a matter of time" is also not the same as "soon" or "in February". The other day I read a comment from a Hungarian colleague (last time I looked Hungary was still Eastern Europe) wo didn't care about Russia and Ukraine at all and just wanted to be left alone and mind his own business. So "everyone" is also not true.

Now, don't get me wrong, I freely admit that the Eastern Europeans were always much more wary about Russia and warned us about too close ties and that Russia wasn't done escalating - and they were right. I personally just find it non-credible that in hindsight now everyone and their dog claim to have known what was going to happen.

[DesertFox]

17 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Btw. Scholz also claims to have known already back in winter(?) 2021 and prepared accordingly. 

Yeah, that´s a running gag many forgot about.