How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Lethaface]

On 9/25/2024 at 12:55 PM, Beleg85 said:

Not really; I am fully aware of dirt (and low quality of it) that Poroshenko camp is throwing at president. Most of my Ukrainian contacts are rather apolytical, some even Maidan participants. Two are completelly cynical at literally everyone in UA politcial class (they did respect only Zaluzhny), claiming they all betrayed original idea of Revolution of Dignity. Both Zelensky's and Poroshenko's parties alike.

Also most insightful observers of internal UA politics seem to support this view that power there is not wielded by one guy and his personal sympathies/antypathies. Zelensky is not a puppet (he also get more matured over course of this war...but also more tired) but neither he is single player.

My only point here is to be aware that Ukrainian political decision making is not as monolitical as headlines in many western newspapers assume. It's not only about Z's and his ideas/actions. We can agree though that recent stance in US elections is considered quite risky. Just on principles, nobody likes if other country meddles in his own election process; many in Ukraine get that even if they hate Trump and his stance regarding Ukraine.

There is almost no regime where 1 person makes all decisions, not in a dictatorship let alone a democratic country. The prime minister/president is responsible and has the final call (in theory), but that's not to say it's a one man show.
Media might paint pictures in certain ways, one should be able to see through the framing. 

Even Trump has his advisors

Edited Friday at 03:36 PM by Lethaface

[Lethaface]

On 9/25/2024 at 3:18 PM, The_Capt said:

Zeleban had a different pattern but same goal - build some credibility and then switch to pro-Russian defeatism. Posing as a Ukrainian gave this more weight to outside readers "if a Ukrainian thinks it is that bad..." Zeleban was far more ham handed about it - the war was supposed to be a complete loss by now- so maybe tactics are evolving. We will see Eug85 brushed up on all out defeatism last week - Ukrainian officers etc, but then pulled back once called out.  Moved onto "West Sux" etc. Regardless, the news is never good "always bad" is the primary theme to watch out for. 

 

In the beginning he was/seemed different, he even took it up for Kraze against my righteous conclusions  and later he seemed rather stressed out. Quite a while after that he became the defeatist. 
There could be many explanations, compromised account being one of them.

[Lethaface]

On 9/25/2024 at 3:37 PM, Eug85 said:

News is not good or bad. It is objective.

LoL, that depends. 

Anyway I have felt, since I called your posts fishy, that you are withholding something from us. You never post what it is you actually want to bring forward. You are only fishing for certain reactions.

[Lethaface]

On 9/25/2024 at 4:25 PM, The_Capt said:

I would argue that exploring whether we are looking at a pro-Russian Info Op on this thread is directly relevant to this war. It speaks to the fact that the "front line" of this thing extends into the information domain. Even right here, right now. The primary vehicle of influence coming out of Russia is to sew disunity. Unity in the West has stopped Russia cold in this war. It was the last thing Putin expected. We are supposed to be lazy, weak and divided. Whoops. 

We are not perfect but unity happened. Losing that hill, Russia is falling back on Resolve. Attack our resolve in this war directly - it is too hard, too long, a lost cause...just like Iraq and Afghanistan. From this position Russia can try to re-attack that unity. This is not new, people have written books about the Russian way of hybrid warfare since the Revolution:

https://www.amazon.com/Russian-Hybrid-Warfare-Resurgence-Politicization/dp/0190877375

The trouble here is that observation is not inherently a good or bad thing (I think you said that), but that is not where it stops. Analysis and Assessment it where the influence happens. We can both observe something - A Canadian Film, Finnish trade trends, Ukrainian military leadership. But once you offer opinions, which is a post-processing action, we enter into conation spaces. If your analysis and opinions are genuine, and backed up by facts, then we should all be able to see that. If they are skewed and promoting biased...well that is bad.

So What? Well Russian information operations are very well developed. We have seen plenty of evidence of that. They also happen in layers. First circle are actual Russian agents - working in national security/intelligence. They have legal frameworks and do strategic stuff. Second degree are paid assets, normally developed by agents from the first circle. Third circle are organizations and affiliations that receive Russian money but indirectly, often through various convoluted means. Fourth circle are really spontaneous volunteers with no real direct connections but are out pushing pro-Russian narratives in support of a larger cause. They lack any real training but have mass. Thousands of kids with internet accounts pounding drums across the information space. 

I have zero doubts we have seen 4th circle players on this thread. They are everywhere. But 3rd? Hmm. Why this matters so much is that Putin has got one thing right, war is still largely a mental game. He knows the West is tired of trying to solve the Worlds problems for 30+ years. He can still try and salvage this car crash if resolve fails. I am convinced the continuous offensive slaughters the RA are doing are pretty much a show for Western consumption. "Dear God, they are willing to just keep coming." Watch enough of that and just about anyone is going to start to wonder. He promotes and reinforces this because he really has very few options left. He is losing this thing so badly that his only real option is to "hope" we get tired and quit. 

I'm out of likes, don't have much too add but I think you hit an interesting and valid topic here. 

[Lethaface]

On 9/25/2024 at 6:20 PM, Kraft said:

Man, and someone claimed I am the person poisioning the wells in this thread

Beware, the russian niche 15 reocurring user gaming forum thread psyop.

But movie from russian military embedded, RT employed ethnic russian directors only showing rus POV? Lets not jump to conclusions, might be anti-war 

Don't be surprised. For what it's worth, there are known small destabilization campaigns on social media with specific targeting. A niche gaming forum is indeed a less probable target for destabilization on large scale, but given the reach / views of this thread and the contributors it could very well be a target in some way shape or form. If only to get more info about people which can be exploited further with other means. '4th' grade / hasbarah type agents are not to be neglected either, they exist.

[hcrof]

I'm not sure why I have to read walls of text piling on Eug85? Nothing he is posting is against the rules of this forum and the pushback is frankly inane. People here are intelligent enough to make their own minds up after nearly three years of analysis so please if you don't have something intelligent or interesting to say then don't say it. 

"I don't like what you say and therefore you are a russian troll" is not an argument. The only person who can make that judgement is Steve so if you are not Steve please post thoughtful arguements or genuinely new information rather than pages and pages of spam. 

[hcrof]

The Russians seem to be improving their drone game. This looks like a prototype that may develop into something effective. Although I'm not sure how it is better than a simple FPV - maybe they think it can shoot from outside the jamming bubble around a tank?

Overall I think that it took over 18 months but the Russians are slowly developing a system to develop and deploy drones that is actually effective. Not as effective as the Ukrainians but definitely more worrying than cratering empty fields with 152, especially since a combination of artillery, glide bombs and drones is more than the sum of it's parts. 

[Lethaface]

On 9/26/2024 at 12:37 AM, Vet 0369 said:

I have to agree with and support LLF in this. I personally can’t stand either one and won’t be giving my vote to either one! I think Trump is a Tyrant and I’m terrified that Kamala will ignore the text of the U.S. Constitution even though she has to swear the save oath to “Preserve and Protect the Constitution from all enemies both foreign and Domestic” that all Federal employees have to swear. I am a Constitutional Originalist. Does that put me in in the MAGA camp also?

No, but not knowing much about Harris how did you come to the conclusion that she will ignore the US Constitution? From a foreign, NL, perspective the likelihood of Trump ignoring your constitution is much higher.

[Artkin]

17 minutes ago, hcrof said:

The Russians seem to be improving their drone game. This looks like a prototype that may develop into something effective. Although I'm not sure how it is better than a simple FPV - maybe they think it can shoot from outside the jamming bubble around a tank?

Overall I think that it took over 18 months but the Russians are slowly developing a system to develop and deploy drones that is actually effective. Not as effective as the Ukrainians but definitely more worrying than cratering empty fields with 152, especially since a combination of artillery, glide bombs and drones is more than the sum of it's parts. 

Lmao, Google lens is what they used to translate the second picture. Its so good that it can translate russian cursive from ww2 documents. 

[Lethaface]

On 9/26/2024 at 4:14 AM, Battlefront.com said:

Let's not forget the Danes.  I posted an interview with the PM and she was talking explicitly about NATO needing to have its own red lines.

Me thinks there's some coordination here!  Perhaps based on some intel that Russia might be signalling a specific means of escalation.

Steve

Another one, for what it is worth. This has been posted about by the regular media here. Without going into what my take on it is, I think it's best to just translate the origin:

https://www.liga.net/ua/politics/interview/zsu-naisylnisha-armiia-yevropy-shcho-na-zakhodi-dumaiut-pro-viinu-ta-chervoni-linii-putina

[Jiggathebauce]

As far as the Ukrainian diaspora, would it not be a good idea to get them enlisted remotely as drone operators? If US drones can bomb people in the Middle East from a trailer in Nevada, why can't properly vetted Ukrainians in Western Europe do the same to contribute? They would probably be more useful as drone pilots than they would as meat puppets

[sburke]

49 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

No, but not knowing much about Harris how did you come to the conclusion that she will ignore the US Constitution? From a foreign, NL, perspective the likelihood of Trump ignoring your constitution is much higher.

likelihood?  He freakin tried a fake elector scheme then organized a mob to assault congress to overturn an election- the very core of the democracy and Constitution he swore to uphold.   "It is gonna be wild!".  It is like saying Kamala might shoplift while Trump was caught robbing a bank.

6 dead, 174 police officers assaulted, Extensive physical damage; offices and chambers vandalized and ransacked; property stolen; more than $30 million for repairs and security measures.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

I'm not sure why I have to read walls of text piling on Eug85? Nothing he is posting is against the rules of this forum and the pushback is frankly inane. People here are intelligent enough to make their own minds up after nearly three years of analysis so please if you don't have something intelligent or interesting to say then don't say it. 

"I don't like what you say and therefore you are a russian troll" is not an argument. The only person who can make that judgement is Steve so if you are not Steve please post thoughtful arguements or genuinely new information rather than pages and pages of spam. 

Wait a minute. Aren't you doing exactly what you are telling everyone else not to do? You are telling people what to post and what not to post...and you are not Steve either. 

Steve has brought this up before. There is a responsibility to challenge here if someone posts something flagrantly wrong or propaganda. Eug85 has demonstrated a pretty consistent trend that needed to be called out. This is not "I don't like what they say" it is "they are only saying partial truths and sometimes outright lies." 

Awfully sorry if all that proof distracted you. 

Edited Friday at 05:43 PM by The_Capt

[Ts4EVER]

37 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

As far as the Ukrainian diaspora, would it not be a good idea to get them enlisted remotely as drone operators? If US drones can bomb people in the Middle East from a trailer in Nevada, why can't properly vetted Ukrainians in Western Europe do the same to contribute? They would probably be more useful as drone pilots than they would as meat puppets

Yeah, really looking forward to the Ukrainian student in my school class being even more tired in the morning because he spent the night blasting Russians...

[Carolus]

Video of Ukrainian SSO about the Krynky beachhead. English subtitles are good.

Quote

The Road to Krynky" is the story of the titanic work of the soldiers of one of the units of the SSO, who, through the islands and floats, cleared the passage for the Marine Corps to the left bank of the Dnieper, overcame the enemy's fortifications and mine barriers.

The details of the large-scale and lengthy operation, told by the operators of the Subdivision, are full of human emotions and memories. Everyone knows the story of the heroic assault and holding by the Defense Forces of Ukraine of the bridgehead in Krynk.

It's time to hear a story about the role of the SSO in the battle for the left bank.
 

 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

As far as the Ukrainian diaspora, would it not be a good idea to get them enlisted remotely as drone operators? If US drones can bomb people in the Middle East from a trailer in Nevada, why can't properly vetted Ukrainians in Western Europe do the same to contribute? They would probably be more useful as drone pilots than they would as meat puppets

How is that even supposed to work? Ukraine can't force them, I guess we can't either and we won't, anyway. They'd have to volunteer and it is anyone's guess how likely that would be, given that they fled from the war in the first place.

What's more, if Ukrainian drones were operated from our territory, that would technically make us a direct party in the war - not going to happen.

Thirdly, let's assume we could get that to work somehow: Wouldn't it be detrimental to moral at the frontline when people who dodged being drafted get "rewarded" by giving them some of the better posts compared to having to sit in a trench?

Edited Friday at 06:28 PM by Butschi

[Kraft]

A little, not so ground breaking insight into russias recruitment efforts for Europeans to sabotage/murder internally.

Mostly boils down to using street criminals / impoverished, not specifically pro-russians, although those of course are a little more inclined to risk murder for 10000 euro (that must be below black market hitman contract value, anyone with experience here?)

It seems they are not expected to be very disruptive or successful in scale to affect the military in a significant way but to cause headlines and create instability.

https://www.occrp.org/en/investigation/make-a-molotov-cocktail-how-europeans-are-recruited-through-telegram-to-commit-sabotage-arson-and-murder

 

Fun fact: The mentioned grey zone channel (admin) had an unfortunate end and is currently drying out in the desert

Edited Friday at 06:45 PM by Kraft

[Battlefront.com]

I banned Eug85 and I'm going to be very clear about why.

There is a zero tolerance policy for people who get caught working around a ban.  I don't care if someone comes back a saint and somehow stays off my radar for years... banned is banned.  Period.  Which is why I give lots of warnings and/or "vacations" before going that route.

From the start I suspected it was the 3rd return of the banned Zeleban.  The secret admin techno info data mumbo jumbo I have available to me is imperfect, but there was cause for suspicion from the start.  Since then I've been waiting until Eug85 convinced me one way or another.  For the last week or so I've finally decided it's Zeleban, but decided to give it a little more time.  I now feel I've seen enough to make the call and so Eug85 is banned.

Now a word about the ruckus surrounding Eug85's posts.

I do not believe that Zeleban is anti-Ukrainian or pro-Russian (not exactly the same thing).  I think those who have characterized him as such need more evidence before assigning a specific label like that.  Instead, what I see is someone with a DEFINITE agenda that is not within the normal boundaries of healthy debate.  Sometimes it is a very fine line between that and standard debate, granted, but there is a line.

Anyway, it is important to recognize what we saw happen here.  It's what I think of as the Trojan Horse propagandist.  It's the same thing undercover agents use in law enforcement and regime maintenance.  A smart/gifted person "infiltrates" a group and establishes credibility by mimicking whatever the majority view is.  Then, slowly at first, the person slips in things which are consistent with the agenda, pulling back to safer topics when sensing the need.  Often it seems the person gets bored with the cat and mouse stuff, then starts being pretty obvious about it.  Which is where we got to in recent days.

It is clear that Zeleban has an agenda.  Made even clearer by the fact that he's attempted to reinsert himself into this thread 3 times since his banishment.

To be absolutely clear, Eug85 was banned because I believe him to be someone who has been banned several times before.  He was not banned for posting "uncomfortable" bubble bursting stuff. 

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

59 minutes ago, Kraft said:

A little, not so ground breaking insight into russias recruitment efforts for Europeans to sabotage/murder internally.

Mostly boils down to using street criminals / impoverished, not specifically pro-russians, although those of course are a little more inclined to risk murder for 10000 euro (that must be below black market hitman contract value, anyone with experience here?)

It seems they are not expected to be very disruptive or successful in scale to affect the military in a significant way but to cause headlines and create instability.

https://www.occrp.org/en/investigation/make-a-molotov-cocktail-how-europeans-are-recruited-through-telegram-to-commit-sabotage-arson-and-murder

 

Fun fact: The mentioned grey zone channel (admin) had an unfortunate end and is currently drying out in the desert

And why is it that Russia isn't on the US list of states that sponsor terrorism?  And yes, I'm being very sarcastic.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Quote

“Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon its unofficial price target of $100 a barrel for crude as it prepares to increase output, in a sign that the kingdom is resigned to a period of lower oil prices, according to people familiar with the country’s thinking.”

 

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:

If US drones can bomb people in the Middle East from a trailer in Nevada, why can't properly vetted Ukrainians in Western Europe do the same to contribute?

Because that requires fancy satellite links (and satellites), and the drones Ukraine uses are much smaller. Obviously if Ukraine had big enough drones and permission to use Starlink on them, this would work, but it’s not a good fit for FPV at all. And ol Elon doesn’t want Starlink used in a war, and presumably the US wouldn’t want another government to use Starshield either.

Better to push forward on autonomy all the way.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Because that requires fancy satellite links (and satellites), and the drones Ukraine uses are much smaller. Obviously if Ukraine had big enough drones and permission to use Starlink on them, this would work, but it’s not a good fit for FPV at all. And ol Elon doesn’t want Starlink used in a war, and presumably the US wouldn’t want another government to use Starshield either.

Better to push forward on autonomy all the way.

U.S just needs to buy out Starlink completely. Elon accidentally created the most militarily significant technology of the last twenty years. And we can't trust him as far as I can throw a fully fueled Falcon 9. That is a problem.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

U.S just needs to buy out Starlink completely. Elon accidentally created the most militarily significant technology of the last twenty years. And we can't trust him as far as I can throw a fully fueled Falcon 9. That is a problem.

Careful now. That is a slippery slope and the kind of stunt places like China would pull. I am not sure what the solution is (a US military Starlink?) But forced federal ownership rarely works out well.

[kimbosbread]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

U.S just needs to buy out Starlink completely.

It’s called Starshield, and the US doesn’t have an alternative launcher that can put up the necessary volume of satellites. Everybody else is at least a decade behind (Chinese, Blue Origin, Rocketlab). I don’t think the US government is capable of operating an maintaining a system like Starlink themselves, honestly. So you just gotta pay SpaceX.

Besides, the whole dream of working at SpaceX is being on the bleeding edge and taking humanity to the stars. Starlink.gov would not get those people at all.

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Elon accidentally created the most militarily significant technology of the last twenty years.

Not really accidental, it’s the logical consequence of realizing you have a ton of extra payload room and not enough paying customers. So what can you put in space that will make you money?

[Battlefront.com]

Slight update on the meeting between Trump and Zelensky.  Nothing much, but I didn't expect anything much.  The views of both are pretty clearly laid out, so a meeting like this is almost always about the meeting itself rather than anything of substance.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4903365-zelensky-trump-ukraine-war/

Steve