How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Good lord, did they really just try to fire a damn ballistic missile at a tank?

They are clearly desperate enough to throw virtually anything into this in the hopes of being able to stop it before they have to start pulling real combat power out of Donetsk. But given that previous analysis of Russian missile parts in Ukraine implies things are going from the factory to expended in a month it seems like the are at great risk of completely depleting their supply. That might be realy good for the Ukrainian power system come winter, among other things.

Also this tape does not make it at all clear they got the tank. It is one thing to shoot at a whole platoon that has parked to do whatever. Shooting this kind of missile at a tank that is rapidly maneuvering just doesn't seem like a high percentage shot. They probably hit the road the tank had been on, it is not at all clear it was still there.

[ArmouredTopHat]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They are clearly desperate enough to throw virtually anything into this in the hopes of being able to stop it before they have to start pulling real combat power out of Donetsk. But given that previous analysis of Russian missile parts in Ukraine implies things are going from the factory to expended in a month it seems like the are at great risk of completely depleting their supply. That might be realy good for the Ukrainian power system come winter, among other things.

Also this tape does not make it at all clear they got the tank. It is one thing to shoot at a whole platoon that has parked to do whatever. Shooting this kind of missile at a tank that is rapidly maneuvering just doesn't seem like a high percentage shot. They probably hit the road the tank had been on, it is not at all clear it was still there.

I highly doubt the tank was there, there is no reason for it to hang around that space only a few hundred metres from where it was firing. I would wager it was in fact long gone by the time that missile arrived. (Probably why the drone in question had nothing burning to film afterwards, hence the cut)

Speaking of missiles, its been a while since we saw concerted efforts to hit UA infrastructure with mass missile attacks. Has there been increased tactical usage of these weapons instead?

[ArmouredTopHat]

 

[Sequoia]

48 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Has there EVER been a fair trial in Russia? Once in the last thousand years?

The horse jump-off across the ravine trial in Taras Bulba? I suppose that was in Ukraine though.

[Haiduk]

Who did this? )))

 

[Centurian52]

40 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Speaking of missiles, its been a while since we saw concerted efforts to hit UA infrastructure with mass missile attacks. Has there been increased tactical usage of these weapons instead?

They're continuing to strike Ukrainian infrastructure with missiles and Shahed drones every day. But they can only produce so many missiles per month. Not enough to have a large strike every day. So they have to moderate the scale of most strikes so they can build up their missile stockpiles enough to launch a large strike every once in a while.

edit: From the August 14th ISW report it looks like the strike on the night of August 13th to 14th consisted of two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 23 Shahed drones.

Edited August 15 by Centurian52

[Carolus]

Re ukrainian infrastructure: There is currently a huge demand for high voltage transformer parts from Ukraine. I got involved only by chance - high voltage is not my usual branch but the requirement documents passed over my desk. The pieces are huge - more than 1 ton of weight for 324kV transformers components.

I know some components will come from Germany, but because production here is expensive, there are plans to import them from China and re-export to Ukraine. Chinese companies are happy to sell to European companies, no matter whether the parts end up in Ukraine or not. Plan is to get the Ukrainian plants back running before winter.

Edited August 15 by Carolus

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

Vlad vexler is pessimistic about the political impact of the incursion, and no let up in pressure from the East so far.

Not saying the Ukrainians made a mistake but it is looking like more of a gamble than it did a week ago. Prisoner numbers aside, I hope we get some good news in the east to justify the reduced resources being sent there. 

 

Holy crow, anybody that thinks what Ukraine did was a mistake needs to be taken out to the woodshed and punished.  I'll even provide the belt!

Judging this action by pegging all hopes and dreams upon it is really dumb.  I mean, by that measure the Kharkiv counter offensive wasn't worth doing, or taking back Snake Island, or obligating the Russians to withdraw from half of what they took in early 2022.

Nuts, I say

Steve

[ArmouredTopHat]

 

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crow, anybody that thinks what Ukraine did was a mistake needs to be taken out to the woodshed and punished.  I'll even provide the belt!

Judging this action by pegging all hopes and dreams upon it is really dumb.  I mean, by that measure the Kharkiv counter offensive wasn't worth doing, or taking back Snake Island, or obligating the Russians to withdraw from half of what they took in early 2022.

Nuts, I say

Steve

I think people really underestimate the morale impact for the Ukrainians, its been shared before but this successful attack has happened after months of hard defence and the notion that that would be how it play out for the rest of the war. This operation has showed that Ukraine can attack, and do it well. 

Russian morale meanwhile seems to be actively going between coping and telling us how its all part of the plan to actively dooming that Russian sovereign territory is now under occupation. This attack is perfect for making it clear to the Russians that they really do need to go home. If Ukraine can take a large chunk of territory then they could quite literally push for a settlement that involves exchange. An increasingly war weary Russia, Putin or not might just take that. 

Its a shift in the right direction for sure and an excellent use of well equipped brigades that can practise mobile, high tempo operations without running into concentrated minefields. To me its so much more efficient. 

Edited August 15 by ArmouredTopHat

[Centurian52]

2 hours ago, hcrof said:

Vlad vexler is pessimistic about the political impact of the incursion, and no let up in pressure from the East so far.

Not saying the Ukrainians made a mistake but it is looking like more of a gamble than it did a week ago. Prisoner numbers aside, I hope we get some good news in the east to justify the reduced resources being sent there. 

 

If anything it looks, to me at least, like much less of a gamble than it did a week ago. A week ago I was concerned that the Russians might not divert significant forces to respond to it, that the informational effects of it might be negative, and that Ukraine may have diverted significant strength from more important areas to conduct the operation. Now I know that the Russians have diverted significant forces to respond, the informational effects have been mostly positive, and it looks like the Ukrainians are only using a handful of brigades for this operation.

Obviously this operation isn't going to be decisive. But no single operation is in a war this large.

Edited August 15 by Centurian52

[ArmouredTopHat]

 

[Centurian52]

I can see the fighting in Kursk clearly on the NASA FIRMS map

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:7days;@32.8,48.2,7.1z

[FancyCat]

Warmer.

Quote

The DOD just announced a $130 million contract for Lockheed Martin to increase JASSM and LRASM missile production.

This comes hours after Politico reported that the US is "open" to supplying Ukraine with JASSM air launched cruise missiles.

Quoted: The US is reportedly “open” to supplying Ukraine with AGM-158 JASSM air launched stealth cruise missiles, and is already working on upgrading Ukrainian F-16s to fire them, per Politico.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract/Article/3875437/

 

[sross112]

1 hour ago, Centurian52 said:

I can see the fighting in Kursk clearly on the NASA FIRMS map

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:7days;@32.8,48.2,7.1z

I'd love to see a second phase initiate with a couple brigades slamming out of that salient to the northeast headed for Rylsk. I'd bet it wouldn't take much of an advance at all to panic the RA units between there and the border into a full scale rout. They seem to have a huge aversion to being surrounded. 

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crow, anybody that thinks what Ukraine did was a mistake needs to be taken out to the woodshed and punished.  I'll even provide the belt!

Judging this action by pegging all hopes and dreams upon it is really dumb.  I mean, by that measure the Kharkiv counter offensive wasn't worth doing, or taking back Snake Island, or obligating the Russians to withdraw from half of what they took in early 2022.

Nuts, I say

Steve

Just to be clear, at no point does Vexler say that the invasion was a mistake. In a previous video (The Meaning of Ukraine’s Kursk Invasion) also on the invasion he even says he has stayed out of speculating about Ukraine's purposes. What he does do is critique the narrative in some circles that the invasion will bring about the downfall of Putin. The videos mainly cover the political effects on Russia and Putin and their responses to it as well as possible ramifications.

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Just to be clear, at no point does Vexler say that the invasion was a mistake. In a previous video (The Meaning of Ukraine’s Kursk Invasion) also on the invasion he even says he has stayed out of speculating about Ukraine's purposes. What he does do is critique the narrative in some circles that the invasion will bring about the downfall of Putin. The videos mainly cover the political effects on Russia and Putin and their responses to it as well as possible ramifications.

Sure, that's fair.  But I'll stick to my point even though it wasn't intended to be aimed at Vexler specifically.  And that is, this incursion into Russia was not intended to topple Putin, but it is too soon to say what will happen.  Regime collapse always has a trail of events leading too it.  If/when Putin's regime collapses, this may be determined to have been the tipping point.  Or not.  We won't now until after it happens and even then there will likely be decades of debate about what exactly happened.

Steve

[Fenris]

russia complaining at the UN.  It's galling.  The Japanese diplomat sums things up nicely.

 

[Kraft]

I would appreciate some context to 2 videos I saw.

Not to post the Videos here, the soldier with a gasmask was checking up on one of these rus underground Bunkers.

The floor was littered with decomposing russians in combat gear. I mean piles of them. The guy was walking not over but on them through the corridor because the entire floor was covered. 

My best guess would be this is connected to the mass surrender of the encircled conscripts/fsb/whatever, one of the videos showed the SBU in 'combat' with someone inside for a brief moment.

What Im wondering is how did they die, the rest of the place looked mostly undamaged so I doubt there was fighting. Either they were smoked out and suffocated (without the whole wood interior burning down somehow)? No rifles present but they may have been collected before the video was shot.

 

[Blazing 88's]

Ukraine Matters
Georgie discusses Mick Ryan's and Agil Rustamzade articles about the Kursk operation:

 

Edited August 16 by Blazing 88's

[kimbosbread]

13 minutes ago, Kraft said:

What Im wondering is how did they die, the rest of the place looked mostly undamaged so I doubt there was fighting. Either they were smoked out and suffocated (without the whole wood interior burning down somehow)? No rifles present but they may have been collected before the video was shot.

Smoke grenades will kill people in enclosed spaces by suffocating them.

[FancyCat]

Crimean bridge has a busy night, anti-air and explosions around the bridge and nearby regions.

Quote

Ukrainian missile attack near the Crimean Bridge tonight. Local channels report multiple explosions and air defense engagements, visible from the Russian-occupied city of Kerch.

Multiple explosions reported in Simferopol, at least one explosion reported on Mount Mithridat, near Kerch.

https://t.me/Crimeanwind/65593

 

[sburke]

40 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I would appreciate some context to 2 videos I saw.

Not to post the Videos here, the soldier with a gasmask was checking up on one of these rus underground Bunkers.

The floor was littered with decomposing russians in combat gear. I mean piles of them. The guy was walking not over but on them through the corridor because the entire floor was covered. 

My best guess would be this is connected to the mass surrender of the encircled conscripts/fsb/whatever, one of the videos showed the SBU in 'combat' with someone inside for a brief moment.

Maybe they died of fear.  Either of the UA or of their own officers killing them.  Yeah I am being sarcastic.   Wonder if maybe the bunker is just being used to store the dead.  What else is the UA going to do with them?

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, sburke said:

Maybe they died of fear.  Either of the UA or of their own officers killing them.  Yeah I am being sarcastic.   Wonder if maybe the bunker is just being used to store the dead.  What else is the UA going to do with them?

That could be.  To Kraft... did the bodies look like they were naturally in the same position as they died or did they look moved?

Another possibility is even easier and would not be surprising... CO poisoning from bad heating appliance, a generator, or something like that.  The insidious thing about CO poisoning is if it happens at night there's a very good chance nobody would notice until too late.

Where I live a couple people die every winter from CO poisoning, such as running a generator from inside their house or a poorly maintained propane heater.  I had a very old propane appliance that used to set off a CO detector every so often.  A cleaning would fix it for a while, then I converted it to electricity and that fixed it for good

Who here thinks that Russians would routinely follow good safety and maintenance protocols and/or provide proper ventilation and/or install CO detectors?

Steve

[FancyCat]

The bodies of the fallen are also exchanged regularly with Red Cross mediation. I have no idea if its the same sort of horse-trading as relating to PoWs, but i assume that is why they were gathered. That or something happened to them before the incursion by Ukraine and Ukraine just happened to seize the area before whatever arrangements Russia would have undertaken. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-swap-bodies-soldiers-one-of-biggest-exchanges-of-its-kind/

[dan/california]

 

I am pretty sure this thing would go through both sides of any battle ship ever built. 

 

Quote

An enormous payload for a drone made by UA volunteers. The shaped charge weighs nearly 43kg/95 lbs. It generates an explosively formed projectile that cuts through tanks like butter. The drone is there just for comparison. It can't cary that load.

Edited August 16 by dan/california