How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MikeyD]

10 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

EDIT: I’m willing to make a bet that a head of state will be killed by kamikaze drone within 3 years.

Go back 5-6ish years, some US-backed terrorist group tried to kill the president of Venezuela with a kamikaze drone at a rally.

[Joe982]

7 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

 

Hilarious!

[Joe982]

I read somewhere that Russians founda tunnel and used it to come up behind a Ukranian line causing the loss of that district.

Next we hear that North Koreans are sending engineer soldiers to Russia. The thinking is that the North Koreans will dig tunnels and come up behind the Ukranians.

Has anybody heard anything on this?

 

[Offshoot]

5 minutes ago, Joe982 said:

I read somewhere that Russians founda tunnel and used it to come up behind a Ukranian line causing the loss of that district.

Next we hear that North Koreans are sending engineer soldiers to Russia. The thinking is that the North Koreans will dig tunnels and come up behind the Ukranians.

Has anybody heard anything on this?

 

It was around New York - video should start at the appropriate place

https://youtu.be/uisGLgxPpL0?si=u0fX-6M5bSchj5gw&t=268

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Interesting to see how artillery has evolved in terms of operating practise. I imagine tanks are used in similar ways. Go out, shoot and then scuttle back to safety. Mobility is useful, but ultimately having shelter matters more. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

While we have to be cautious about these sorts of data points, its clear some real workhorses in the Russian military are about to be severely curtailed. 

[Battlefront.com]

58 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Interesting to see how artillery has evolved in terms of operating practise. I imagine tanks are used in similar ways. Go out, shoot and then scuttle back to safety. Mobility is useful, but ultimately having shelter matters more. 

This reminds me of Germans doing similar thing with StuGs on the open steppes of Russia in the winter.  In their case they were trying to avoid being spotted in the wide open areas.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

What is interesting about this one is lack of shell craters.  I can see a few but no where near enough to explain the line of scrap metal.

That and it appears to be a newly made path (I hesitate to call it a road), so pre-placed mines probably weren't the cause of those destroyed vehicles.  If not artillery and mines, I think it's safe to conclude UAS.

Steve

[The_Capt]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That and it appears to be a newly made path (I hesitate to call it a road), so pre-placed mines probably weren't the cause of those destroyed vehicles.  If not artillery and mines, I think it's safe to conclude UAS.

Steve

Only other options are ATGMs and DF.  But we have not seen a lot of either of these for awhile.

[ArmouredTopHat]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1e2h3rf/bradley_and_his_crew_surviving_multiple_fpv_drone/

Bradleys really are earning a reputation for durability. Impressive survivability for an IFV. 

[Vet 0369]

9 hours ago, keas66 said:

I mean I think folks  assume the worst in the next US elections just because . But as  single minuscule counter example . I got myself Naturalized this year finally after living and working in the US for the last 20 years ... and I have absolutely no intention of voting for the Republican Candidate .

Congratulations! Welcome! I am a moderate conservative Republican, but for the last two elections, I couldn’t in conscience vote for either party so I voted Libertarian. In a nutshell, the Libertarians espouse a philosophy of “I don’t care what you do as long as it is legal and doesn’t hurt another.Just keep out of my face!”

[Seedorf81]

Trump has been shot during rally.

Wounded, not lethal.

Shooter dead, 1 spectator dead, Trump except for wound on ear ok, very close call.

Looks like secret service/security fu#^ked up big time, people warned minutes before the shooting for guy with gun on a roof, nobody acted, it seems.

Edited July 14 by Seedorf81
update

[Letter from Prague]

If I were US I would totally release the targeting restriction and send as much support to Ukraine as I can now, while I still can. So Ukraine can get one last hurrah before the support stops. But I have a feeling that won't happen.

edit: sadly, I don't have the savings or skill to go open an European cruise missile factory.

Edited July 14 by Letter from Prague

[poesel]

Could I ask everyone to please NOT comment on the Trump shooting?

Media outlets will run this story 24/7 for the next week, and I don't think anyone here can add any new information.

Although this may or may not have an impact on the election, I don't think this event will have any influence on the stance of the winner wrt to Ukraine.

This thread is about the war in Ukraine, so please keep it there.

[Letter from Prague]

34 minutes ago, poesel said:

Although this may or may not have an impact on the election, I don't think this event will have any influence on the stance of the winner wrt to Ukraine.

I agree that getting into US politics is a bad idea, but I don't think this statement is true at all.

Many many many times we have agreed that it is NATO's and specifically US's intelligence and targeting data that allows Ukraine to stay in the fight and perform as well as they have. US's support is not just Bradleys and missiles Ukraine is forbidden to use to hit anything important, it's also ISR and nobody else in NATO can provide that, because nobody else in NATO has that network.

That support going away (and possibly going to Russians instead) has huge impact on the war.

If non-US NATO countries and Ukraine were smart, they have started looking into where they rely on US months ago and scrambling to enable domestic alternatives. Somehow I feel we are taking the ostrich approach instead.

And I think it's a good lesson too - wars aren't won and lost just at the battlefield - social media manipulation sponsored coup at major countries is also works pretty well a way it seems.

edit: also, with the sanctions gone, Russia can get a lot more weapons manufactured and its economy will recover, making Russians leave Ukraine by economical collapse impossible.

Edited July 14 by Letter from Prague

[Butschi]

34 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I agree that getting into US politics is a bad idea, but I don't think this statement is true at all.

Many many many times we have agreed that it is NATO's and specifically US's intelligence and targeting data that allows Ukraine to stay in the fight and perform as well as they have. US's support is not just Bradleys and missiles Ukraine is forbidden to use to hit anything important, it's also ISR and nobody else in NATO can provide that, because nobody else in NATO has that network.

That support going away (and possibly going to Russians instead) has huge impact on the war.

If non-US NATO countries and Ukraine were smart, they have started looking into where they rely on US months ago and scrambling to enable domestic alternatives. Somehow I feel we are taking the ostrich approach instead.

And I think it's a good lesson too - wars aren't won and lost just at the battlefield - social media manipulation sponsored coup at major countries is also works pretty well a way it seems.

edit: also, with the sanctions gone, Russia can get a lot more weapons manufactured and its economy will recover, making Russians leave Ukraine by economical collapse impossible.

@poesel only pointed out that neither Trump nor Biden will change their stance on Ukraine because of the attempt so it is doubtful that it will have any significant impact on the war. So it adds no new information in addition to what was discussed as nauseam already.

Edited July 14 by Butschi

[Haiduk]

Russians already reacted

"Khokhols, you will answer for Trump", "For the ear of Trump", "For Trump"

 

Edited July 14 by Haiduk

[panzermartin]

Got to say that the last few years the "democratic" side of the world has been surprisingly proactively violent. 

There have been murder attempts against conservative political figures like the extreme right wingers were practicing in the past. 

As a democratic leaning person, I don't think I like where this is going. 

Too much violence, not enough content. 

Edit : The background /motives of the shooter are not clear yet so my point could be premature. 

Edited July 14 by panzermartin

[Carolus]

https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1811826407674380315

 

Russian improvised anti-drone weapon: 122mm shell filled with nails and other objects

[poesel]

29 minutes ago, Carolus said:

https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1811826407674380315

 

Russian improvised anti-drone weapon: 122mm shell filled with nails and other objects

That is an interesting idea, but I see a lot of problems with execution.

First, you need a good dummy target that won't be identified as such. Then you must not be seen positioning this 'air mine'. Then you need to aim the mine straight upwards - a few degrees off and you'll miss. Then you need to sit and wait for a drone to appear. Then you need to fire the mine only when the drone is exactly above it - usually that is when the drone drops the bomb.

Add to all this that you are screwed if you attracted a kamikaze drone that comes from the side.
Oh, and since the shell isn't rotating and there is no charge in the center of the shrapnel, the cone will be relatively small. Not good for hit probability.

 

Btw, I wonder when we will see automated lobbing of bombs by drones. The sensor side should be doable (the distances are low) and even if drones are dirt cheap - reusable is cheaper.

[Grigb]

38 minutes ago, poesel said:

That is an interesting idea, but I see a lot of problems with execution.

It is against big slow bombers like Baba Yaga. 

You place this mine, then set up a fake weapon position (with ad hoc source of heat) and wait for the bomber to come. Bomber usually stops for couple of seconds during drop. Once it stopped you blow the mine up. Apparently, it works. Not always but often enough.  

 

38 minutes ago, poesel said:

Btw, I wonder when we will see automated lobbing of bombs by drones. The sensor side should be doable (the distances are low) and even if drones are dirt cheap - reusable is cheaper.

According to RU claims most of these big bombers are automated. They follow prescribed routes and bomb in prescribed places making them virtually undetectable and unjammable by EW.  

 

[Letter from Prague]

55 minutes ago, poesel said:

Btw, I wonder when we will see automated lobbing of bombs by drones. The sensor side should be doable (the distances are low) and even if drones are dirt cheap - reusable is cheaper.

But reusable means the drone has to return, so it needs more battery for the same range, meaning higher weight (or smaller payload). So one way has its place.

I think both (reusable) bomber-like drones and (one way) missile-like drone have been seen, including bomber-like drone carrying missile-like drones.

[Grigb]

7 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1e2h3rf/bradley_and_his_crew_surviving_multiple_fpv_drone/

Bradleys really are earning a reputation for durability. Impressive survivability for an IFV. 

Almost all Western armored vehicles will demonstrate exceptional durability. We must remember that the impressive destruction inflicted by FPV drones on RU AFVs is mostly due to the RU AFV are crappy. They are just not built to survive the impacts of infantry-sized HEAT ammunition (which is essentially what FPV drones are).

[Grigb]

9 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Only other options are ATGMs and DF.  But we have not seen a lot of either of these for awhile.

Most of them were undoubtedly hit by drones. Few by mines. And as far as I can tell, the UKR avoid using ATGMs and DF until absolutely necessary (dangerous and expensive - 1 ATGM shot = dozens of drones).

[Grigb]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

That and it appears to be a newly made path (I hesitate to call it a road), so pre-placed mines probably weren't the cause of those destroyed vehicles.  If not artillery and mines, I think it's safe to conclude UAS.

Steve

Few could be hit by mines. One of the UKR's tactics is to promptly drop a mine as soon as they see RU vehicles making a new path. Your lead vehicle moves forward. Reports that everything is normal. The second vehicle tries to catch up following the same path, only to experince a kaboomb from a mine placed by a drone behind the lead vehicle.