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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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Interesting. A group of Ukrainian soldiers surrounded for 70 days, they say:
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/19862
 

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Soldiers of 225 OSHB and 223 OB 126 OBr TrO 30 KMP spent 70 days in complete surroundings

📋Such a situation arose due to the enemy's bypassing of the positions and their subsequent retention. We spoke with one of the officers of the 225th battalion. The battalion was the longest of all, and the first 42nd OMBr, then the 67th OMBr, then the 41st OMBr, and now the 24th OMBr were in the lane. With the support of the latter, they managed to get the boys out.

🤝Special thanks to the brigade commander of the "Royal" brigade and his boys. Former prisoners, who defend the country as part of 225 OSHB, showed themselves in these battles.

🏚Despite the withdrawal of the Defense Forces from the "Canal" micro-district, on the other side of the canal in the forests, fighters of the 225th OSHB and NGU are still defending. The enemy has been carrying out assaults there for about a month, but cannot achieve complete success in the forest.

 

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https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/07/09/joint-statement-on-strengthening-ukraines-air-defenses-by-u-s-president-joseph-r-biden-dutch-prime-minister-dick-schoof-german-chancellor-olaf-scholz-italian-prime-minister-giorgia-melon/

 

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Today, we are announcing that, collectively, we are providing Ukraine with additional strategic air defense systems, including additional Patriot batteries donated by the United States, Germany, and Romania; Patriot components donated by the Netherlands and other partners to enable the operation of an additional Patriot battery; and an additional SAMP-T system donated by Italy. These five strategic air defense systems will help to protect Ukrainian cities, civilians, and soldiers, and we are coordinating closely with the Ukrainian government so that these systems can be utilized rapidly. We are working on a further announcement this year of additional strategic air defense systems for Ukraine. 

In addition, in the coming months, the United States and partners intend to provide Ukraine with dozens of tactical air defense systems, including NASAMS, HAWKs, IRIS T-SLM, IRIS T-SLS, and Gepard systems. These systems will further expand and strengthen Ukraine’s air defense coverage. Several Allies – including Canada, Norway, Spain, and the United Kingdom – will continue to play an integral role in the provision of these systems, and many other supporters of Ukraine will assist in the provision of interceptors. For its part, the United States will re-sequence planned deliveries of Foreign Military Sales of critical air defense interceptors in coordination with partners so they are delivered to Ukraine, providing Ukraine with hundreds of additional air defense interceptors over the next year. 

 

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56 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Actually, the last post was yesterday:
https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2024/07/08/would-it-work-sure/

Yeah, I still follow him.

Quite right.  Well he definitely rambles like an old man, so that part is realistic:

Being the boor I am, I forced my way into their conversation, and eventually got an invite from one of them. It was on a 130 ft. Italian-made yacht owned by an arms dealer. I went to a tailor on Hamra Street and ended-up paying a premium to get a white suit made fast. I had some hassle getting on the boat, but had a business card that was given to me that cleared things up fast. I felt like ****ing James Bond.

I did not know anyone, and never found the woman who gave me the invite. I ended-up sitting at a round bar on one of the stern decks talking to an elder Brit with false teeth that kept falling loose, and his girlfriend, a blonde Palestinian who could not have been much over 16. What struck me was the incredible diversity of people, from every corner of the world….colors, nationalities, religions, all drinking, partying like hell, and likely planning to get ****ed before the night was over. A robust United Nations.

The Brit guy lived in Beirut, and seemed to have an insight into who was who. He pointed to one tall black girl on the dance floor…”She is a high-end prostitute Based out of Hamra. She is Somalian, and has pubic hair up to her navel.” He was probably bull****ting me about everything, but it was an entertaining conversation.

In the end, I went back to the hotel with a bottle of gin and laid in bed and watched an Arabic drama with French subtitles on TV. If that would have been a movie, I would have likely had a menage-a-trois with the slightly chubby Kuwaiti women and the 6 foot Somalian, and killed a few bad guys during breaks with my silenced automatic. Sigh. But, no. The next day I flew to London with a massive hangover and a ****ing useless white suit I paid a fortune for.

When you travel a lot abroad things happen, some good, some bad. But, always interesting.

One a flight from Seattle to Phoenix, I sat next to a Filipina woman who was an agent for hiring overseas workers. She insisted when I flew back to Singapore I stop by Vegas, on her dime. Well, she was a pretty good looking old lady, and I am basically a heathen, so why not?

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5 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Well said. The West is more ok with Russia hitting Ukrainian children hospitals than with Ukraine hitting Russian military bases.

Or the IDF doing anything at all.  Sorry, I couldn't resist.

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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Quite right.  Well he definitely rambles like an old man, so that part is realistic:

 

Being the boor I am, I forced my way into their conversation, and eventually got an invite from one of them. It was on a 130 ft. Italian-made yacht owned by an arms dealer. I went to a tailor on Hamra Street and ended-up paying a premium to get a white suit made fast. I had some hassle getting on the boat, but had a business card that was given to me that cleared things up fast. I felt like ****ing James Bond.

I did not know anyone, and never found the woman who gave me the invite. I ended-up sitting at a round bar on one of the stern decks talking to an elder Brit with false teeth that kept falling loose, and his girlfriend, a blonde Palestinian who could not have been much over 16. What struck me was the incredible diversity of people, from every corner of the world….colors, nationalities, religions, all drinking, partying like hell, and likely planning to get ****ed before the night was over. A robust United Nations.

The Brit guy lived in Beirut, and seemed to have an insight into who was who. He pointed to one tall black girl on the dance floor…”She is a high-end prostitute Based out of Hamra. She is Somalian, and has pubic hair up to her navel.” He was probably bull****ting me about everything, but it was an entertaining conversation.

In the end, I went back to the hotel with a bottle of gin and laid in bed and watched an Arabic drama with French subtitles on TV. If that would have been a movie, I would have likely had a menage-a-trois with the slightly chubby Kuwaiti women and the 6 foot Somalian, and killed a few bad guys during breaks with my silenced automatic. Sigh. But, no. The next day I flew to London with a massive hangover and a ****ing useless white suit I paid a fortune for.

When you travel a lot abroad things happen, some good, some bad. But, always interesting.

One a flight from Seattle to Phoenix, I sat next to a Filipina woman who was an agent for hiring overseas workers. She insisted when I flew back to Singapore I stop by Vegas, on her dime. Well, she was a pretty good looking old lady, and I am basically a heathen, so why not?

Reads like a “write like Hemingway in Ukraine “ contest entry.  Did a better job than when I asked ChatGPT for a Hemingway essay about ducks.

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This is what I mean about needing to call the Russian bluff and smack them hard. They will just get more and more emboldened as their desperation increases. It needs to be made clear that if so much as a whiff of responsibility is found that something valuable of theirs is going to explode. 

Edited by ArmouredTopHat
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not sure if this is legit... but I hope so! 😎

'Sudden' Death: High-Ranking Russian General Set to Testify in Kremlin Corruption Case Pronounced Dead (msn.com)

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A 61-year-old general slated to testify in a high-profile Kremlin corruption trial has died under suspicious circumstances.

Knewz.com has learned that Magomed Khandayev who served as the chief of the State Expertise Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense, was expected to be a key witness in an upcoming court case involving another Moscow higher-up.

Said judicial process is directed against Timur Ivanov, a politician who filled the role of Deputy Defence Minister of Russia from 2016 to 2024.

In April the news leaked that Ivanov, known to be part of the Kremlin elite, was taken into custody after being accused of accepting large bribes.

Ivanov denied the charges, while speculations suggested that the real reason for the war cabinet senior’s arrest was suspected treason.

 

 

Edited by sburke
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1 hour ago, sburke said:

Why would anybody in Russia think they would ever live to testify against someone senior?  If I were that general, and the FSB came to me and said I would be testifying, I'd nod my head and as soon as they were out of eyeshot I'd put on women's clothing and a nice wig, maybe some lipstick, and head for the border.  If I were caught people would just assume I was just being a general and let me pass.

Steve

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Ukraine setting up a unit for overseas Ukrainians to volunteer for the armed forces. Sounds like training and equipping will be in Poland.

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The formation of the unit is provided for in the security agreement signed in Warsaw on July 8, 2024.  The security agreement also provides for the training of this unit in Poland.

Zelensky added that this unit is being formed based on the positive experience of the Ukrainian-Polish-Lithuanian brigade.  In 2014, the goal of creating a joint Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade was to increase mutual trust and cooperation between the countries and to train the military.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/new-ukrainian-legion-to-be-formed-and-trained-in-poland/

 

Edited by FancyCat
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1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Ukraine setting up a unit for overseas Ukrainians to volunteer for the armed forces. Sounds like training and equipping will be in Poland.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/new-ukrainian-legion-to-be-formed-and-trained-in-poland/

 

All those last incentives are part of building diplomatic pressure before NATO summit and should not be viewed as milesteps that change dynamics by themselves, unfortunatelly. White House already slapped Warsaw for even puting this entire idea with air defence; also here public is a little bit confused what it really meant in practice. None of these documents signed tell about concrete solutions, only that sides should "strive towards" or "search for options" toward goals. Perhaps it is also effect of anticipation of changes with air defence assets replacements within NATO itself- we know at the summit some countries will donate them to Ukraine so gaps on Eastern Flank may appear.

"Ukrainian Legion" idea in turn supposedly was an effect of stalled negotiations to do something about reluctance of Ukrainian diaspora to come back. Conditions of service and command chain are unknown for now, we only know it could be trained here in PL. Theoretically it could attract some limited number of people who are not afraid of going into combat zone but do not like conditions of service in (most of) current Ukrainian army units. Even one of government advisors today in interview did not seem very convinced it will work that well and framed it more like it would be skeleton military formation for possible future cooperation between NATO and Ukraine to exchange experiences- which actually could be a good idea if taken seriously by NATO.

So no breakhroughs here I am afraid.

 

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7 hours ago, chris talpas said:

At what point are we going to realize that we can’t only shoot down arrows but need to go after the archers?

Getting more Patriots is not going to guarantee that capability, unfortunately. The attack profile of Russian glide bombs is such, that in order to shoot down delivery aircraft, Patriots would have to be really close to the front, and vulnerable to Lancets, Iskanders, Orkans -  in fact all kinds of stuff. They could do some damage in ambush mode, but at a very significant risk.

Therefore I think that additional Patriot batteries are intended for another purpose, i.e  to protect more of Ukraine's interior, and they would be shooting down more arrows, just directed at other cities that Kiev or Odessa.

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15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's the question that we keep asking and it's why the TankIsDead™ topic quickly resurfaces.

"What issue is actually on the table" is probably best boiled down to "the ability to conduct offensive ground operations".  Not just "maneuver warfare", but any form of warfare that leads to seizing territory.  So "attritional warfare", "combined arms", "full spectrum", etc. are all having a tough time showing viability right now.

The TankIsDead™ comes up fast because the manueverists argue that there is a way to restore the tank's traditional role and once that is accomplished maneuver warfare is viable again.  The side that thinks that isn't realistic have concluded there isn't anything to restore it's role and therefore the whole concept of maneuver warfare needs to be revised into something else.  Furthermore, the TankIsDead™ discussion gets at the other doctrines being in trouble because if one can't revive the accepted primary offensive doctrine of the past 80+ years, most of the other doctrines are in trouble since they are generally based on some assumptions of maneuver warfare.  Attritional warfare kinda does too, but not necessarily and is in big trouble for a bunch of reasons, some of which are the same as the challenge of maneuver warfare.

Steve

Aside: you should trademark it and do merch 😉

'How can we retain/regain "the ability to conduct offensive (ground) operations" in a future environment against a near-peer force, with ISTAR & weaponized (autonomous) drone capabilities assumed to be equal to or better than what is available on either side in the current Ukr-Rus conflict?' 

Those extra nuances are important imo and sometimes where the discussions seem to veer off into various directions. 

Inside that 'issue', i think it's wise to assume the 'tankIsDead', at least as a valid contingency if not more;
whatever the outcome of the role of tanks or heavy mech mass & maneuver from the analysis of the current war.

I'd also keep my current shoes for the moment, but maybe delay on replacing them with a new model.

 

Edited by Lethaface
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6 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

the 'tankIsDead

The tanks in the conflict are already 30 years or more years old. The Centurion and M60 had their Swansong during the Yom Kippur war. Something will come up to counter the present challenges. 

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1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Getting more Patriots is not going to guarantee that capability, unfortunately. The attack profile of Russian glide bombs is such, that in order to shoot down delivery aircraft, Patriots would have to be really close to the front, and vulnerable to Lancets, Iskanders, Orkans -  in fact all kinds of stuff. They could do some damage in ambush mode, but at a very significant risk.

This was already tried and it worked pretty well. In fact it worked so well that West got angry and forbid Ukraine from doing it again.

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8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Why would anybody in Russia think they would ever live to testify against someone senior?  If I were that general, and the FSB came to me and said I would be testifying, I'd nod my head and as soon as they were out of eyeshot I'd put on women's clothing and a nice wig, maybe some lipstick, and head for the border.  If I were caught people would just assume I was just being a general and let me pass.

Steve

Why can we not upvote your posts Steve! Why! That is pure gold.

+1

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34 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

The tanks in the conflict are already 30 years or more years old. The Centurion and M60 had their Swansong during the Yom Kippur war. Something will come up to counter the present challenges. 

Yes something will come up, but some people will have to come up with the stuff that counters the future challenges (not only the present ones).

The tank itself is not a goal, it's a tool part of a toolbox which itself is a means to an end.

Edited by Lethaface
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35 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

The tanks in the conflict are already 30 years or more years old. The Centurion and M60 had their Swansong during the Yom Kippur war. Something will come up to counter the present challenges. 

But why.

A tank makes things go boom.

There now many things that go boom which are not as heavy.

Passive armor cannot keep up with the things that penetrate it.

This is just a continuation of a very long historic development that was protracted by the emergence of engines.

It was first abandoned by the people with 2 feet power. Later by people with 1 horsepower. And it will be abandoned by people with 1.000 horsepower as well, and pretty much for the same reasons as their predecessors. 

Their replacements will be smaller, cheaper, lighter, but more numerous.

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2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

"Ukrainian Legion" idea in turn supposedly was an effect of stalled negotiations to do something about reluctance of Ukrainian diaspora to come back. Conditions of service and command chain are unknown for now, we only know it could be trained here in PL.

If the "Ukrainian Legion" was to train in Poland to help defend the Polish border against Russian incursion. 😉

Never to be sent to Ukraine. 😉

Purely to support their Polish ally with at least a 3 month tour of duty. 😉😉

Now if, in the future, they were all to want to go back to Ukraine, who is Poland to say they shouldn't?

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33 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

This was already tried and it worked pretty well. In fact it worked so well that West got angry and forbid Ukraine from doing it again.

I know there has been talk of this but I am skeptical about the American protest being the real reason the Ukrainians dropped their Patriot roving battery stunt. They were also hit by an Iskander strike when displacing and lost at least 2 launchers, possibly the radar as well. I suspected that might have been the more important motive.

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21 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I know there has been talk of this but I am skeptical about the American protest being the real reason the Ukrainians dropped their Patriot roving battery stunt. They were also hit by an Iskander strike when displacing and lost at least 2 launchers, possibly the radar as well. I suspected that might have been the more important motive.

exactly.
I think someone here posted a link about how the Germans trained the Ukrainians for such tactics using their wheeled patriot systems and how the USA found it interesting, they themselves never intended the Patriot for such a role until that moment.

Now whatever of that is true, the Sambushes will definitely come back if Ukraine thought they worked well and has enough systems to do it without neglecting cover of urban area's. I'm quite sure they wouldn't listen to whomever who'd tell them not to do it, rightfully so. 

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