How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vanir Ausf B]

12 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So maybe 5k, not 50k.  Well then this really was more RA leg humping to prove some sort of point.

Yes, and given that this is where the Freedom of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps have been running incursions into Belgorod this could be a counter-leg humping leg-humping exercise.

Edited May 18 by Vanir Ausf B

[Nastypastie]

New Binkov

 

[kimbosbread]

Combo drone attacks; one can very well imagine how these work against an APS: Attack from two directions at once with two drones each, first drones deploys a cloud of chaff/aluminum powder, second drone punches through. 

 

[Astrophel]

2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Yest, and given that this is where the Freedom of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps have been running incursions into Belgorod this could be a counter-leg humping leg-humping exercise.

From a distance it is difficult to see who is conning who.  There have been provocative attacks into russian territory which Putin must have found provocative.  Then again Putin and his entire "family" is visiting China right now and a "second front"  is a handy diversion from the failure of his troops to make much progress in the last two years.  Ukraine too is PR savvy and want to step up pressure in the West to maximise contributions.  By the way did those Spanish Patriots ever get donated?

Standard Soviet doctrine is to give up some territory for strategic advantage. Otherwise known as writing history afterwards.  Or as a friend of mind said, "the best strategic plans are written after the event".  Ukrainians are also educated in the soviet way, for better or worse, and they have a huge amount of territory and many small settlements.  At my distance I readily confess I don't know what is going on.

What seems to be indisputably true is that russians are gaining ground slowly but surely and at great cost in seemingly unimportant lives.  Personally I am glad to see Ukraine learning the disciplines of retreat and valuing Ukrainian lives above territory.

Now we have to figure out how to win this war.  My view has always been that the russians have to stop wanting to fight.  It is beyond my comprehension to understand why people want to sacrifice their lives in an unjust cause and for the benefit of a mafia clan to which they will never belong.  OK, russians have been lied to all their lives and by their mothers too.  Can't we find some way to wake these guys up with a dose of truth?

A lot of energy is going into to making better drones.  I would like to see us blowing the minds of the front line russian soldiers so they turn around and go home.  This is the only way to win this war.

Edited May 17 by Astrophel

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

A lot of energy is going into to making better drones.  I would like to see us blowing the minds of the front line russian soldiers so they turn around and go home.  This is the only way to win this war.

The time tested method is convincing them they will die if they stay. 

[Kraft]

Quote

Hit the tank shed with your homing drone!

We have our own countermeasure against the enemy

Where ordinary drones cannot cope due to the work of EW, the new development works successfully.

Thanks Ivanhoe and friends for a great job!

AI drone hitting the assault shed tank

 

 

Edited May 17 by Kraft

[Jiggathebauce]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The time tested method is convincing them they will die if they stay. 

There's not enough political dissidents and members of revolutionary parties in the ranks to organize the soldiers st the moment. 

 

As a side comment, I wonder why there is still a Leningrad military district, given that it's been st Petersburg for a long time now and the Mafia clan running Russia has openly insulted the memory of VI Lenin, even blaming him for Ukraine's existence.

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, Astrophel said:

A lot of energy is going into to making better drones.  I would like to see us blowing the minds of the front line russian soldiers so they turn around and go home.

What about a small drone with a shaped charge, that can burn through a helmet and thus “blow the mind”?

EDIT: I still think less-than-death, or alternatively horribly painful death is better: Eunuch-make drones, or aiming for legs and feet deliberately to cripple.

Edited May 17 by kimbosbread

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Combo drone attacks; one can very well imagine how these work against an APS: Attack from two directions at once with two drones each, first drones deploys a cloud of chaff/aluminum powder, second drone punches through. 

 

This may be standard practice now.  The K-2 videos posted a few pages ago spoke of similar tactics being used.

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

So instead of one drone with tandem warhead you have tandem drones with single warheads. I guess that works.

[FancyCat]

Drone this, drone that.....how about more artillery? More long range missiles? The ability to actually attack Russia proper with them? Gah, part of the reason drones are in such demand is lack of artillery ammunition and forced idleness of artillery. Surely a freaking artillery shell is cheaper and easier to make than a drone? (Assuming the cheap commercial Chinese ones still have a lifespan of a few days according to the last info and therefore more expensive drones are needed.) tho considering the silliness of the EU debating purchasing non-Western artillery shells maybe not cheaper until the Czechs knocked some sense into everyone.

[FancyCat]

From february by Jack Watling at RUSI so I'm probably reposting old stuff, still good to review and compare to now, luckily it's good to see that the artillery ammunition situation is improving now in May.

Quote

Artillery has accounted for about 80% of casualties on both sides.

But Ukraine is having to ration its units to fire only 2,000 rounds a day across a 750 mi. front. Ukraine fields around 350 artillery pieces, so that in many areas of the front Ukraine has no artillery at all.

Russia has more than 4,000 artillery pieces in Ukraine, and is firing around 10,000 rounds a day across the front.

Russia understands the importance of artillery in a war of attrition. While Russian artillery use has been crude and has underperformed, the sheer volume of shells it is expending has given Moscow a decisive battlefield edge today. The country is set to produce another 1.3 million rounds of 152 mm caliber ammunition in 2024, along with around 800,000 rounds of 122 mm caliber ammunition. Alongside a remaining stockpile of around 3 million rounds, the delivery of over 1 million rounds from North Korea, and production contracts signed with North Korea, Belarus, Iran, and Syria, Russia will continue to have firepower dominance throughout the year.

https://time.com/6694885/ukraine-russia-ammunition/

 

[Sojourner]

Zelensky: No reports of artillery shortages for first time in full-scale war

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-progress-made-on-artillery-shortage/

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Surely a freaking artillery shell is cheaper and easier to make than a drone?

Nope.  The cost of production of a dumb 155mm shell is about EUR 3k, a smart one EUR 100k.  FPV drones are somewhere around EUR 2k-3k and they are precision.  Then there's the expense of transportation, handling, and storage to consider, which adds to the cost of the shell by the time it gets fired.

Which gets back to the point about why there's so much talk about drones.  They are cheap and highly flexible precision weapons that have an outsized influence on the battlefield compared to the same number of dumb artillery shells.

I'd rather have 800 drones and 200 artillery rounds than 800 artillery rounds and 200 drones.  But really, I'd rather have 800 drones and 800 artillery rounds

Steve

[Anthony P.]

I wouldn't think it's a question of "this one or that one" though? It's two different tools with largely completely different uses.

You can't take an artillery shell off on an excursion behind Russian lines to do recon and/or explode a very, very specific target with a single hit. Neither can you really use FPV drones barrage a large target. You can't send an artillery shell to a friendly position... well, you can, but apart from making you very unpopular, it won't help your guys there find out if there's a Russian squad sneaking up on them through the deadground. You can't use an FPV drone if the Russians are managing their ECM well today. Etc., etc.

[hcrof]

59 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nope.  The cost of production of a dumb 155mm shell is about EUR 3k, a smart one EUR 100k.  FPV drones are somewhere around EUR 2k-3k and they are precision.  Then there's the expense of transportation, handling, and storage to consider, which adds to the cost of the shell by the time it gets fired.

Which gets back to the point about why there's so much talk about drones.  They are cheap and highly flexible precision weapons that have an outsized influence on the battlefield compared to the same number of dumb artillery shells.

I'd rather have 800 drones and 200 artillery rounds than 800 artillery rounds and 200 drones.  But really, I'd rather have 800 drones and 800 artillery rounds

Steve

I think both those numbers are too expensive. I heard a dumb 155 round is $3000 now due to supply issues but normally $1200. A fpv drone is as low as $300 but it is unclear if that includes the munition. If not add maybe $150 for a PG7 round

Edited May 17 by hcrof

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

But really, I'd rather have 800 drones and 800 artillery rounds

 

It is the new combined arms.

 

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I think both those numbers are too expensive. I heard a dumb 155 round is $3000 now due to supply issues but normally $1200. A fpv drone is as low as $300 but it is unclear if that includes the munition. If not add maybe $150 for a PG7 round

Not according to this article:

https://www.technology.org/2023/01/05/how-much-do-155-mm-artillery-rounds-cost-now-and-how-many-are-fired-in-ukraine/

For sure the rounds were cheaper before the war when demand outstripped supply.  But it's still about double what you're thinking it was.

As for a good quality FPV with an explosive on it, I did not say $300 as that's not the sort we're talking about.  In my post I put in a price of EUR 2k to EUR 3k for a good quality FPV drone, which is about $3000 to $3500.  Roughly the same acquisition cost as a new production dumb 155 round. 

However, the total cost of that 155mm round delivered to the breach block of a cannon is way higher than its acquisition cost.  How much?  I have no way to estimate it, but it's not cheap.  An FPV drone, on the other hand, can literally be brought to the battlefield in a backpack.  Whatever the cumulative costs are for the FPV, it will be dramatically lower than the 155mm shell.

So even if we presumed a dumb 155mm shell was the combat equivalent of a FPV drone, the FPV drone is cheaper.  But because the FPV is a precision weapon it should be considered superior to a dumb 155mm shell.  Perhaps as effective as a smart round that costs 30x more.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Sojourner said:

Zelensky: No reports of artillery shortages for first time in full-scale war

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-progress-made-on-artillery-shortage/

If this is true, and Ukrainian gunners are back to the volume of fire they actually need? It presents at least the possibility of a couple of new factors involved in the Kharkiv push by Russia. Either they made the whole plan assuming their minions in Congress would actually be able to keep the aid blocked? Or could have been a last throw of the dice before trainloads of new ammo worked there way through the supply system. Perhaps with a force/plan that they really wanted to let wait for six more weeks.

[danfrodo]

good stuff on the war today, w videos of the big UKR drone attack on RU.  Plus tanks going bavovna.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/17/2241190/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Mass-Ukrainian-drone-attack-meets-little-resistance?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

 

[FancyCat]

A drone can't get thru ECM, artillery can tho, the Time article link broadly states that they are complementary as a result. We have had several months of Ukraine relying on drones and the universal demand has been artillery shells, not more drones and from what I can read, artillery can do counter battery in a way drones can't. Obviously 800 of both is best but effectively Ukraine has been stuck with 0 artillery and 200 drones and their response has been more artillery.

I mean sure maybe in a future conflict I would prefer 800 drones but right now it's 800 artillery shells. Evolution is occurring but it's still 800 shells > drones.

[zinz]

52 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not according to this article:

https://www.technology.org/2023/01/05/how-much-do-155-mm-artillery-rounds-cost-now-and-how-many-are-fired-in-ukraine/

For sure the rounds were cheaper before the war when demand outstripped supply.  But it's still about double what you're thinking it was.

As for a good quality FPV with an explosive on it, I did not say $300 as that's not the sort we're talking about.  In my post I put in a price of EUR 2k to EUR 3k for a good quality FPV drone, which is about $3000 to $3500.  Roughly the same acquisition cost as a new production dumb 155 round. 

However, the total cost of that 155mm round delivered to the breach block of a cannon is way higher than its acquisition cost.  How much?  I have no way to estimate it, but it's not cheap.  An FPV drone, on the other hand, can literally be brought to the battlefield in a backpack.  Whatever the cumulative costs are for the FPV, it will be dramatically lower than the 155mm shell.

So even if we presumed a dumb 155mm shell was the combat equivalent of a FPV drone, the FPV drone is cheaper.  But because the FPV is a precision weapon it should be considered superior to a dumb 155mm shell.  Perhaps as effective as a smart round that costs 30x more.

Steve

Any source for the FPV pricing? Hell a Mavic 3 costs 2000€ of the shelf and that is miles too fancy for a FPV drone. The correct price for the front line FPV drones that take out tanks and Infanterie which we all have seen so many times is most likely around 500€ if it's not sold by the military industrial complex. 

[Offshoot]

On 5/17/2024 at 3:56 AM, Battlefront.com said:

What I would love to know is how much terrain Russia thought it might be able to take before the lines firmed up.  Did they get everything they were looking for?  Were they hoping for more and aren't going to get it?

Some interviews with Russians captured in the Kharkiv region (captions not great but good enough to get the gist) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4klaEw9tvg

The first, who signed a contact in March, claims it was his battalion's task to capture Vovchansk in two days. Just the word of a lowly private but funny in light of the three-day SMO. The second was transferred out of his original unit because the commander didn't like his tattoo saying "Russian occupier".

A lot has been said here about what the Kharkiv offensive will mean for Ukraine and what Russia's goals are, but what effect will it have on the wider war for Russia? I had the impression from the Freedom Legion et al.'s raids that the Russian border was also very lightly defended. Now Russia has supposedly 50,000 troops on the border with the Kharkiv rather than stationed elsewhere. If the number of 500,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine is correct, that is 10% of their entire force. I suppose Russia could pull them out and say it was just a raid in revenge for the raids into Russia but it would be an expensive demonstration.

[Offshoot]

A machine gun Baba Yaga in what appears like actual combat and not just testing (couldn't find the original so Reddit link). It looks pretty stable while firing but the FPV view is a bit janky for aiming - https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1cugo35/thats_new_ukrainian_baba_yaga_drone_engaging/

[cesmonkey]

https://t.me/osirskiy/692

Quote

In connection with the complication of the situation in the east of Ukraine, I have been working for several days in a row in the units that are conducting combat operations in the Kharkiv region.

The enemy expanded the zone of active hostilities by almost 70 kilometers, thus trying to force us to use an additional number of brigades from the reserve.

The main efforts of the enemy were concentrated in the direction of Strylech - Lypka and on the captured Vovchansk, with further access to Bily Kolodyaz and the deployment of the offensive in the rear of our troops.

For this purpose, the enemy created and significantly strengthened the Sevier operational-tactical grouping of the enemy's troops, which included combat units of the 6th Army, 11th and 44th Army Corps.

The enemy launched an offensive well ahead of schedule when he noticed the overturning of our troops, however, he failed to break through our defenses.

However, we understand that there will be tough battles ahead and the enemy is preparing for it.

Under such circumstances, we must prevent the further advance of the enemy troops by steadily maintaining the occupied lines and positions, inflicting maximum losses on him with air strikes, missile systems, artillery and tank fire, and also create conditions for defeat by the actions of mobile assault groups and units with attacks to the flank and rear from different directions.

Of course, we must make the most of our advantage in attack UAVs in combination with the use of EW and accurate artillery fire.

My work was devoted to these questions, as well as to the regrouping of troops and the simplification of the system of comprehensive support.

He worked in all the brigades conducting combat operations in the Kharkiv region, was in one of the battalions defending Vovchansk, and made all the necessary decisions on the spot to ensure the stability and efficiency of the defense.

He went around and checked all the units that are preparing for defense in the Sumy direction.

I regularly report to the President of Ukraine on the situation and the progress of the specified tasks.

It is felt that the leadership of regional military administrations provides maximum assistance to commanders and commanders of units in solving all problematic issues.

Kharkiv residents and residents of the Kharkiv region are actively involved and help the Defense Forces in whatever way they can.

I thank each and every one of the Defense Forces, Kharkiv residents individually and all our citizens in general for their courage and resilience.

Let's defeat the enemy!
We believe and bring Victory closer together!
Glory to Ukraine!