How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3771984/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
 

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The capabilities in this announcement include:

• Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
• Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
• Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
•  Equipment to integrate Western launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine's systems;
• Additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems(HIMARS) and ammunition;
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
• Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
• M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
• Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles;
• Trailers to transport heavy equipment;
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• Precision aerial munitions;
• High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
• Small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
• Demolitions munitions and equipment for obstacle clearing;
• Coastal and riverine patrol boats;
• Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment; and
• Spare parts, training munitions, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.

 

[poesel]

3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Are they really? I thought that in order to be a legally recognised refugee one has to apply for the refugee status in the first safe country on the way, and there is no way to travel directly from the Ukraine to Germany

Yes, they are legal. Although, you are not wrong: what you describe is the normal procedure for asylum seekers. But Germany and other countries have decided to grant asylum to Ukrainians even though they came through another EU country.

Btw, this EU asylum system has been silly from day one. If you can only apply for asylum in the first EU state you enter, then all refugees will end up in the border states (Italy, Spain, Malta & Greece mostly). I have no idea how they were strong-armed or bribed into agreeing to that.
There are some rules changes in the works to evenly spread those refugees over the EU, but this is strongly opposed by some member states *cough* Poland Hungary *cough*, so I'm not sure where we are at right now.

[dan/california]

 

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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/from-the-crows-nest/id1561252894?i=1000653485072

A very informative podcasts on software defined radio. It a good rundown of how it actually works. The even more interesting part though an extensive discussion about how the biggest roadblocks to fully employing it are regulatory issues. A massive piece of the cost of a new system is certifying that it won't screw up civilian systems. This is obviously a good thing in peacetime. I understand Verizon likes to actually use the spectrum it is paying for. I am really hoping that someone has plan for. real war though, because it is laughable to think the that the Russians, the Chinese, or any of their proxies care about any interference issues.

[Letter from Prague]

54 minutes ago, poesel said:

There are some rules changes in the works to evenly spread those refugees over the EU, but this is strongly opposed by some member states *cough* Poland Hungary *cough*, so I'm not sure where we are at right now.

I always found that hilarious, because the states that least want the refugees are also the states that the refugees least want to go to. As a refugee, would you rather go to (relatively) poorer and more xenophobic place like Hungary or would you rather end up in (relatively) richer and more cosmopolitan place like Germany or France?

Maybe it's a "you can't fire me if I quit" or "you can't leave me if I break up with you first" situation, I dunno.

(my other hypothesis is that the rules are holdover from times when most asylum seekers would be small number of political dissidents arriving by planes from all over the world and not millions of war refugees from wars started and supported by Russia in almost walking distance of EU borders)

Edited May 10 by Letter from Prague

[danfrodo]

Anyone got any news on the new RU attack toward Kharkiv?  

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

There are some rules changes in the works to evenly spread those refugees over the EU, but this is strongly opposed by some member states *cough* Poland Hungary *cough*, so I'm not sure where we are at right now.

No, as long as the current govt is in charge I don't think the words "European Commission", "Poland" and "strongly oppose" will ever again be seen in the same sentence. They agreed to the draft legislation already. As this is an unpopular measure domestically, Tusk appeared on TV and tweeted, heavily implying that through his excellent connections and general snake charming skills the legislation will theoretically be in force but will never be used against Poland as long as he is in power (so vote for me, nudge nudge, wink wink). That is just pure hot air, of course.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

I always found that hilarious, because the states that least want the refugees are also the states that the refugees least want to go to. As a refugee, would you rather go to (relatively) poorer and more xenophobic place like Hungary or would you rather end up in (relatively) richer and more cosmopolitan place like Germany or France?

Is it not the new rule, that the relocated immigrants will be sent to the countries which have not fulfilled their immigrant quota without regard for where they want to go? Otherwise the whole quota system would not make sense. 

[FancyCat]

On 5/9/2024 at 7:02 PM, danfrodo said:

I keep thinking that.  They'll run out of arty tubes, IFVs & tanks, we think, based on the loss rates.  But I also keep questioning whether we are being the german general staff circa 1941/2, where we continually think they are running out of everything but turns out.....

 

On the other hand we must recall the Afghan-Soviet War, if it was purely based on manpower, equipment, a lot of things that occurred would have ended differently.

[ASL Veteran]

Just hit the CC button to get English subtitles if you don't already know that.  Possibly already posted, but it's new to me.

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[panzermartin]

So, they probably plan to gradually encircle and cut off Kharkiv. I'm wondering how much longer will Ukraine be able to supply the defenders of this sector so exposed to Russian artillery /air assets next to the borders. 

There is no clear picture what assets Ukraine has in the city and if it is fortified. I guess no Abrams and Leopards that far away. 

[Holien]

6 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

So, they probably plan to gradually encircle and cut off Kharkiv. I'm wondering how much longer will Ukraine be able to supply the defenders of this sector so exposed to Russian artillery /air assets next to the borders. 

There is no clear picture what assets Ukraine has in the city and if it is fortified. I guess no Abrams and Leopards that far away. 

Oh dear Ukraine is doomed Kharkiv is about to fall...

Let's look at recent past history.

Has Russia been able to mount an attack that has taken and held any sizeable amount of territory in the last year?

Has anything changed that will mean they can?

Has Ukraine annoyed the Kremlin by launching attacks across the border?

Has the Kremlin issued orders to say stop those annoying attacks on our territory?

Has Russia launched attacks on this area before especially if as you say it is so exposed to Russia?

If it was an easy place to attack why has Russia not done so in the last year?

As for your "No clear picture of what's in the city or how it's defended" are you for real? Why would we know, why would you know?

But hey let's look at recent past history...

Has Ukraine been able to make decent defensive positions?

Did they know the attack was coming? Yes they did...

So I would counter your usual doom and gloom with Ukraine will be able to handle it.

Of course I could be wrong but I am happy to bet a stack of donuts on my view that they will handle it.

Russia might be able to create a buffer zone but that's about it. 

Why don't you ask some questions about if Russia can keep sustaining all their losses for sod all territorial gains...

[cesmonkey]

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, panzermartin said:

So, they probably plan to gradually encircle and cut off Kharkiv. I'm wondering how much longer will Ukraine be able to supply the defenders of this sector so exposed to Russian artillery /air assets next to the borders. 

There is no clear picture what assets Ukraine has in the city and if it is fortified. I guess no Abrams and Leopards that far away. 

These comments do not make any sense:

First off the RA would need to push an encirclement nearly 200kms long.  That is being attacked from without while trying to take a city of 1.4 million and 350 sq kms of urban terrain.  For reference, Mariupol was 166 sq kms and the Russian were controlling it for hundreds of kms both land and water side...and it still took them over 3 months and an ungodly number of losses to take.  In fact there are some theories that Mariupol tied down so many RA forces that their summer '22 failed and it set the conditions for the losses in Fall '22.  Kharkiv is 3-4 times the problem, and the UA was nowhere near as well armed and experienced back in '22. "Encircling Kharkiv" is so militarily stupid that the Russian's might even try it but it may cost them so much as to create conditions for operational collapse elsewhere.

As to LOCs, one need only look at the map to see all of the interior lines that are still open. There is both MSRs and rail.  As to terrain, a quick look shows that the terrain to the west of the city is the same rolling tank country we have come to suspect...with no tank play likely.  To the east there is a major water obstacle that will tie in a right flank tightly.

I mean unless the UA collapses completely this is a major operation to pull off...think a couple hundred thousand troops and air superiority.

Finally, this is the double standard.  The UA establish a bridgehead south of Kherson and it is "a minor raid".  The RA make some minor bridgehead gains on the border and "they are encircling Kharkiv!" In reality this is a secondary front that the RA is trying to open up, likely in the hopes it can take some pressure off the south.  But like everything else, RA offensive-wise, these will likely be nips and bites.  Unless the UA collapses completely, at which point this is all pretty academic in the entirety of Eastern Ukraine.  Of course we have no indications of impending UA collapse, but hey why let that stand in the way?

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

For reference, Mariupol was 166 sq kms and the Russian were controlling it for hundreds of kms both land and water side...and it still took them over 3 months and an ungodly number of losses to take

Meh... why not compare it to something more relevant, like Kharkiv 2022?   Russia, at the height of its military advantage against Ukraine, with some degree of surprise on their side, launched a major portion of their forces straight at Kharkiv.  They even got recon units into the downtown area.  And what was the result for the Russians?  MASSIVE losses and a gradual loss of territory before the Kharkiv counter offensive pushed the Russians all the way back to their side of the pre-war border.

The simply question that should be asked is... if Russia wasn't able to surround Kharkiv, not to mention take it, in 2022... what on Earth makes one think they can do it now?  ISW doesn't even think they are even trying to do it.

As for the artillery on Kharkiv itself, the city suffered from terror artillery strikes for the better part of a year and yet Ukrainian forces still kicked the Russians back to the border.

Steve

[panzermartin]

2 hours ago, Holien said:

Oh dear Ukraine is doomed Kharkiv is about to fall...

Let's look at recent past history.

Has Russia been able to mount an attack that has taken and held any sizeable amount of territory in the last year?

Has anything changed that will mean they can?

Has Ukraine annoyed the Kremlin by launching attacks across the border?

Has the Kremlin issued orders to say stop those annoying attacks on our territory?

Has Russia launched attacks on this area before especially if as you say it is so exposed to Russia?

If it was an easy place to attack why has Russia not done so in the last year?

As for your "No clear picture of what's in the city or how it's defended" are you for real? Why would we know, why would you know?

But hey let's look at recent past history...

Has Ukraine been able to make decent defensive positions?

Did they know the attack was coming? Yes they did...

So I would counter your usual doom and gloom with Ukraine will be able to handle it.

Of course I could be wrong but I am happy to bet a stack of donuts on my view that they will handle it.

Russia might be able to create a buffer zone but that's about it. 

Why don't you ask some questions about if Russia can keep sustaining all their losses for sod all territorial gains...

Well I have been wondering and asking these questions about Russian casualties. They seemed too heavy to be sustainable. 

But the last year their answers are more positive for RU. They can keep going and slowly grab land and settlements that Ukraine hasn't been able to challenge back. 

Yes Ukraine can defend. But RU has the advantage in massive firepower to dislodge defenders while UKR is unable to, due to practical reasons. Artillery losses and lack of airforce. They are practically an FPV army at the moment with some long range rocket ability for targets of opportunity. 

Kharkiv can slowly be encircled. Why they didn't attack so far , I don't really know but I guess it's a very big operation that can't go forward unless some conditions are met. Successes in the south /east that keep UKR reserves busy could be one of them. 

I know the cost of this war is insane for Russia and I do wonder what is going on and they are still well in the game. But I think it's clear even to the most naive how essential parts of Ukraine are for them. 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Kharkiv can slowly be encircled.

No, it can't.  That's the point you need to focus on.  Can Russia re-establish a foothold on the Ukrainian side of the border?  Yes, but unless Ukraine's defenses completely collapse there won't be more than that.  Period.

Steve

[panzermartin]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Meh... why not compare it to something more relevant, like Kharkiv 2022?

I think every operation in Feb 2022 was a shock and awe bad copy, aimed to cause chaos in the UKR C&C and minimize casualties and destruction. It failed badly. But there was no chance these scattered fast disoriantated moving units would be able to "occupy" and defeat an opponent that had still very much will to fight. 

The war now is "redesigned" in the traditional Russian bloody chess style. It's still very problematic but it somehow achieves steady gains. 

Still not sure these will be enough to win the war or whatever winning this war means anymore. 

[danfrodo]

Well, hopefully the Kharkiv offensive will somehow turn to UKR's favor.  Hopefully more RU assets lost at a much greater rate than can be replaced.  Maybe some kind of mutiny starts.  But this is just me hoping & praying.  Maybe some larger RU units advance and actually get fully and completely cut off, that would be a nice treat.

[panzermartin]

52 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

These comments do not make any sense:

First off the RA would need to push an encirclement nearly 200kms long.  That is being attacked from without while trying to take a city of 1.4 million and 350 sq kms of urban terrain.  For reference, Mariupol was 166 sq kms and the Russian were controlling it for hundreds of kms both land and water side...and it still took them over 3 months and an ungodly number of losses to take.  In fact there are some theories that Mariupol tied down so many RA forces that their summer '22 failed and it set the conditions for the losses in Fall '22.  Kharkiv is 3-4 times the problem, and the UA was nowhere near as well armed and experienced back in '22. "Encircling Kharkiv" is so militarily stupid that the Russian's might even try it but it may cost them so much as to create conditions for operational collapse elsewhere.

As to LOCs, one need only look at the map to see all of the interior lines that are still open. There is both MSRs and rail.  As to terrain, a quick look shows that the terrain to the west of the city is the same rolling tank country we have come to suspect...with no tank play likely.  To the east there is a major water obstacle that will tie in a right flank tightly.

I mean unless the UA collapses completely this is a major operation to pull off...think a couple hundred thousand troops and air superiority.

Finally, this is the double standard.  The UA establish a bridgehead south of Kherson and it is "a minor raid".  The RA make some minor bridgehead gains on the border and "they are encircling Kharkiv!" In reality this is a secondary front that the RA is trying to open up, likely in the hopes it can take some pressure off the south.  But like everything else, RA offensive-wise, these will likely be nips and bites.  Unless the UA collapses completely, at which point this is all pretty academic in the entirety of Eastern Ukraine.  Of course we have no indications of impending UA collapse, but hey why let that stand in the way?

Yeah, the numbers and the data seem impossible at the moment. Bear in mind at the same time the size and the many corridors make this city hard to defend also for Ukraine (that has numerical disadvantage) . 

I don't think a complete encirclement will be ever possible. But semi encirclement, control of critical junctions, the northern buffer zone and constant harrasment of supply routes are possible and will make the situation difficult for the defender. 

[ASL Veteran]

 

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The ubiquity of FPV drones has complicated the life of frontline infantry. I've half-joked that it may be time to give each squad a semi-automatic shotgun. The Russians have taken this in a slightly different direction. They've developed a subcaliber insert for a grenade launcher letting it shoot what looks like 12-gauge (or whatever the Euros use) shotgun rounds.

Perhaps it's time to bring back the buckshot round for our 40mm grenade launcher?

 

 

[kimbosbread]

If I were the Russians, I’d do my best to make Kharkiv not worth holding for Ukraine. Completely level it a la Grozny. I don’t know if they have enough KABs or artillery within range to do it, but I guess if they were able to hit power and water and take it offline reliably, that would go some towards achieving the effect.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

I think every operation in Feb 2022 was a shock and awe bad copy, aimed to cause chaos in the UKR C&C and minimize casualties and destruction. It failed badly. But there was no chance these scattered fast disoriantated moving units would be able to "occupy" and defeat an opponent that had still very much will to fight. 

The war now is "redesigned" in the traditional Russian bloody chess style. It's still very problematic but it somehow achieves steady gains. 

Still not sure these will be enough to win the war or whatever winning this war means anymore. 

The fact remains that Russia had MASSIVE combat power dedicated to taking Kharkiv in 2022, a city that was only a few 10s of KMs away from their start positions.  They continually reinvested resources into taking Kharkiv after the initial push failed.  Those failed.  They terror bombarded Kharkiv daily, and that failed.

Russia failed under far more favorable circumstances than it has now.  It was beaten back so badly that it took TWO YEARS for them to try something fresh.

Seriously, this isn't a very difficult thing to asses.  Short of Ukraine having a theater wide collapse, Russia won't be doing anything significant here.  It seems they aren't even trying to.

Steve

[ASL Veteran]

 

 

 

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Rheinmetall supplying a 100 km-range 155mm artillery shell is interesting. Longer range than your typical rocket-propelled artillery shell (70-85 km). Nammo is working on a ramjet-propelled 155 mm shell with a range of 150 km. I don't think it's something similar though.

 

 

 

 

 

[panzermartin]

5 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

If I were the Russians, I’d do my best to make Kharkiv not worth holding for Ukraine. Completely level it a la Grozny. I don’t know if they have enough KABs or artillery within range to do it, but I guess if they were able to hit power and water and take it offline reliably, that would go some towards achieving the effect.

I don't think they will like "their" Kharkik in total ruins