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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm very interested to see if these guys intend on staying on Russian territory or if they are going to withdraw as they did with the previous raids.

I really hope so, and I hope they mine the absolute hell out of the area too. Create a nice mine belt and give ukraine a few sqkm of russian DMZ.

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11 hours ago, Kinophile said:

 

 

 

 

UKR drones, attacked Ryazan' oil refinery were UKR developed "Lyutyi" ("Fury") drones (the second from above in right column). They very similar to Chineese Mugin-5, also used by Ukriane in strikes. By rumors this drone can fly on 1000 km and carry up to 75 kg of warhead. But real data unknown. 

Reportedly during the strike on Ryazan refinery were taken out two from four fractioning columns AVT-4 and AT-6, different by year outpit. Because of this Ryazan refinery lost 70 % of own output capabilities. Most of production of this refinery have been sending to Moscow oblast. Intersting that today was claimed about death of top-manager of "Lukoil" company Vitaliy Robertus - the fourth, since the war began. There are rumors he was kileld diring drone strike, but no confirmation yet 

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UKR drones attacked oil refinery in Novoshakhtinskiy, Rostov oblast. Local authorities wrote two drones fell down on territory of enetrprise, сausing a fire. Alas, no details and video

Today also light long-range UAV hit FSB building in Belgorod, but just broke windows and damaged facade

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Dead Russian soldiers near border village Nezhegol' of Belgorod oblast. According to ASTRA during clashes in this area Russian forces lost 4 Rosgvardiya servicemen and 4 were wounded, were destroyed one "Ural" track and D-20 howitzer. 

"Liberty of Russia Legion" showed FPV strikes on Russian BMD-2 in Kursk oblast

Free-Russia fighters warned citizens of Kursk and Belgorod to leave their cities immediately, because they will be forced to strike on Russian army objects in these cities and they want to avoid civilian deaths.

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Edited by Haiduk
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22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Dead Russian soldiers near border village Nezhegol' of Belgorod oblast. According to ASTRA during clashes in this area Russian forces lost 4 Rosgvardiya servicemen and 4 were wounded, were destroyed one "Ural" track and D-20 howitzer. 

"Liberty of Russia Legion" showed FPV strikes on Russian BMD-2 in Kursk oblast

Free-Russia fighters warned citizens of Kursk and Belgorod to leave their cities immediately, because they will be forced to strike on Russian army objects in these cities and they want to avoid civilian deaths.

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Good tactic to scare the Hell out of the locals, causing a ripple effect of spreading the chaos inward.  Those people who do flee will stop for gas, food, flat tires, etc. and speak of their experiences to anybody that will listen, who will then spread it to others.  No amount of clamping down on social media is going to keep this under wraps.

Obviously the impact of this raid is unknowable.  On its own it has no chance of influencing anything.  However, sometimes a swift kick to a rotten structure has pretty impressive results!  So nothing should be ruled out, no matter how unlikely.

Steve

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16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good tactic to scare the Hell out of the locals, causing a ripple effect of spreading the chaos inward.  Those people who do flee will stop for gas, food, flat tires, etc. and speak of their experiences to anybody that will listen, who will then spread it to others.  No amount of clamping down on social media is going to keep this under wraps.

Obviously the impact of this raid is unknowable.  On its own it has no chance of influencing anything.  However, sometimes a swift kick to a rotten structure has pretty impressive results!  So nothing should be ruled out, no matter how unlikely.

Steve

Unfortunate choice, in relation to invasions of Russia... 😛

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6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Hard to really say what is going to happen but I am getting a strange sense that something is going to give one way or the other soon.

(Eddy beat me to thisreport a page ago - just catching up with news and the forum. But better ISR, C4 may be behind Patriot losses. The Bear may be old, and slow and woozy like coming out of hibernation…but it is still a big freaking bear. All of We just need to make the big push to get Ukraine to the Finish Line. Like, now. I really hope that what has been done is not the best we can do. Because nothing good can come from letting a major war in Europe drag on and on. )
 

Well, this might qualify as a bright flashing sign that we have waited too long to do sooner the things that we dilly dallied about too long. And still are. In the USA, even blocking entirely any new funding at all because Big Nurse (men are nurses, too) hates Ukraine and loves Putin.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/russian-shahed-136-with-camera-cellular-modem-could-be-a-big-problem-for-ukraine  The latest Russian development involving the Iranian-designed Shahed long-range one-way attack drone reportedly comprises a pan/tilt video camera mounted on the UAV, allowing it to operate in a visual reconnaissance capacity. It is further claimed that the modified drone, seen in an image of a crashed example, uses Ukrainian wireless networks to transmit its imagery back to a control station. While this may look like a crude installation, it is potentially a solution to a very big problem Russia has faced since the beginning of the war and it could have major consequences for Ukraine, which we may already be seeing on the battlefield

 

Edited by NamEndedAllen
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Pretty sure it's for realz.

Edited by Vanir Ausf B
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Quite a few are missing engines and it’s a sure bet they’ve all been stripped of electronics. 

... and I suspect some radar technician's wives have some pretty powerful microwave ovens.

Edited by Sojourner
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9 hours ago, FancyCat said:

For all the gripping about Europe, at least they are holding strong after some tepidness. Sure Germany isn't giving Tartus the fools but by God, artillery shells are flowing. France, God bless Macron, when we have Putin and co spouting bull**** about concessions needed for peace, rhetoric it may be, warnings about NATO in Ukraine, a line where Ukraine will always remain free, meanwhile in action, in rhetoric, we have a Republican Party doing this ****.

Nice to see France supporting another fledgling democracy as they fight for their independence.

 

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10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I get the need to vent and all, but you are kinda yelling at the church choir here.  Steve either banned or we chased off the right wing twits (and I mean MAGA-types, not honest Republicans who's biggest crime is simply losing control of their party).

To paraphrase Kofman, Ukraine will never run out of ammunition, they can simply chose to "fire less" (The_Capt rolls his eyes).

This war is in an odd place right now.  Ukraine is under strain and suffering but also appear to have upped their strategic strike game significantly.  Russia, is also suffering but is showing improvements in some disturbing areas, like ISR.  No one has solved for the operational stalemate that has evolved.  Hard to really say what is going to happen but I am getting a strange sense that something is going to give one way or the other soon.

I would love to see our country up their game in the Czechia ammunition initiative.  Our $30M CDN (22M US) looks a bit anemic against Norway’s 143 M €.  Although I realize their finances are in better order.
 

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16 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

It would take years to make these carcasses fly, let alone function. 

 

Yeah, this isn't a mothballed T-62 that can perform its intended function after some refurbishment of the metal bits.  The function of these aircraft is not to fly, it's to detect and direct air operations.  There's a big difference between mothballing a chunk of metal with some rubber bits and mothballing sensitive electronics.  Anybody want to guess how many rodents have been nibbling at cable shielding and making a general mess of the interiors of the electronics?  And even if they were perfectly preserved and are in 100% working order today... so what?  This stuff is so out of date I doubt any of the current crews would know how to operate it effectively without significant retraining.

Nah, they're not in play in this war.

Steve

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Interesting concept put out by Navalny, just before his death, for protesting Putin on a way that can't easily be thwarted by the security forces:

https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-election-alexei-navalnys-final-plan-to-cause-vladimir-putin-maximum-damage/

What it boils down to is everybody opposed to Putin go and vote in the Presidential elections at a singular time (noon).  This shows a visible demonstration of opposition to Putin that the police can't do anything about without also curtailing voting activities and, in doing so, presenting the exact opposite image of the elections that Putin wants to portray.

It will be interesting to see if it develops as hoped for by whatever opposition remains within Russia.  Fear of being hounded AFTER voting is certainly going to keep some people from doing this.

Steve

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Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/world/europe/ukraine-drone-russia-jamming.html

Electronic warfare remains a hidden hand in much of the war, and like Ukraine’s disadvantage in troop numbers and ammunition supplies, Ukraine suffers in this area as well in comparison to Russia. Russia has more jamming equipment capable of overpowering Ukrainian signals by broadcasting on the same frequencies at higher power. It also exhibits better coordination among their units.

 

The part about Russia being better coordinated seems to contradict most of the other information we get. The NYT seems to consistently be talking to the most unhappy Ukrainian it can find.

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8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

This guy (RB&PG) has been continuously maddened by the lack of a Ukrainian campaign against RUS electrical and gas infrastructure. He has a good point. 

 

Yeah, it seems strange. If what he says is true, then Ukraine leadership should reassess their targeting.

 

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5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Anybody want to guess how many rodents have been nibbling at cable shielding and making a general mess of the interiors of the electronics?

Having worked in pest control for over half a year, I'll go out on a limb and guess a lot... ;)

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