How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[mosuri]

22 hours ago, Fenris said:

This clip is from a civilian ship that was nearby.  They spot one of the drones trailing the patrol boat before the clip ends.

Another clip, this time it shows what I'm guessing is the first impact

Apologies if this has been posted up thread.

Seeing the tail chase etc makes me wonder whether the ye olde smoke dischargers would help.  If the crew has been alerted, at least to make more difficult for the drone pilot to see what/where he's hitting, or don't modern boats have smoke anymore?  Have wondered the same with AFV's, the T series can dump smoke can't it?  Dump smoke and hide inside, at least make it more difficult for an FPV to hit the rear turret.

 

 

These are some funny (as in strange) vids. Well, it's true that people act in funny ways when in an unexpected situations, if they act at all, but still -- they clearly see the drone close by, they see and hear traces flying relatively close, and think nothing of it. And it seems more sloth and stupidity than sang froid. No seeking of cover until sparks really start flying, no alarming anyone on the boat they are on that there are explosives swimming in the waters around them, not to even mention doing something active like finding a spotlight to illuminate the drone with... well, good for Ukraine. As is the absolutely pathetic defense the target put up.

[mosuri]

Footage claimed to be from onboard tsezar kunikov that was submarine-converted last month:

 

[A Canadian Cat]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am honestly amazed that anything I write causes anyone to think about anything “all day”, but that must be the pressure of Canadian culture.

Yeah, it must be because that post is going to have me thinking all day too.

Dude you have to write a book at some point.

[sburke]

58 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

They don't do toilets yet?  Or do they? 

Japanese have a lock on that.  If you don't have one of these you don't know what you are missing.  

UltraMax® II 1G One-Piece Toilet, Elongated Bowl - 1.0 GPF - WASHLET+ Connection (totousa.com)

 

When the Russians invade Japan, they'll be shooting each other to send one of these home.

[Carolus]

47 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/two-years-later-lac-and-russias-war-ukraine
Two Years Later: LAC and Russia’s War in Ukraine

I had a sorrow look through the obituaries of the International Legion.

A lot of Colombians as of late. They must be a significant portion. 

It reminded me of the volunteers who went to the Spanish Civil War, which also roused many emotions in Europe at the time.

I am in awe of these volunteers (and all other who stand shoulder to shoulder with them, whichever function they serve).

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

what about EW tho? the last RUSI stated drones were dropping like flies due to EW, what prevents just the proliferation of EW anti-drone platforms? Aside from expensive missiles that strike them of course. But at that point, its egg and chicken. 

Also, a key issue for non-manned platforms is of course, the ability for the enemy to take over, seen on one hand with EW, once they lose connection, they generally fall to the ground, sure, the ability for self-contained instructions can occur, but at that point, its just a missile sorta, networking them together into a cohesive unit requires connecting them to talk to one another. And we aren't near enough to AI to deploy independent robots and definitely not near enough for them to back fire on the deployer. 

EW is very effective against commercial drones (unshielded, no redundancies), somewhat effective against military drones (shielded, some redundancies), and not at all effective against autonomous drones with terrain scanning navigation (shielded, inherently doesn't need redundancies).  So if I had a billion Dollars to invest into something to defeat drones, I would not be focused upon EW.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

LOL, true.

 

[Vacillator]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Japanese have a lock on that.  If you don't have one of these you don't know what you are missing.  

UltraMax® II 1G One-Piece Toilet, Elongated Bowl - 1.0 GPF - WASHLET+ Connection (totousa.com)

 

When the Russians invade Japan, they'll be shooting each other to send one of these home.

LOL.  Just realised I was a bit unclear.  I meant Ikea don't have toilets for sale, although I read that some display items have actually been used .  I did not mean that Sweden as a country does not have toilets (of course).

And with that I'd better go.   From this forum thread...

[JonS]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am honestly amazed that anything I write causes anyone to think about anything

Frankly, I'm as shocked about this development as anybody.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 and not at all effective against autonomous drones with terrain scanning navigation (shielded, inherently doesn't need redundancies).  So if I had a billion Dollars to invest into something to defeat drones, I would not be focused upon EW.

Is this quite accurate? Microwave emitters are a form of EW. Broader than lasers,  more of a zone/volume effect weapon, correct? Depending on the power, modulation and sustainment of the effect you can sweep the skies in a certain arc to fry all UAV, or focus on individual units to scramble and drop them. 

Would Autonomy not be just as vulnerable to fried electronics as it is "invulnerable" to classic radio attack?

Eg

From The Crows Nest, podcast ep Feb 14th

From The Crows Best, ep. Feb 28

No shielding is perfect or invulnerable. Everything has a finite quality and bell curve of effectiveness., no? 

As I always say, and my wife hates to hear:

There's more than one way to skin a cat. 

Of course, there's also this:

 

 

Edited March 7 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

Good

BUUUUT.... 

 

Edited March 7 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

 

 

 

Edited March 7 by Kinophile

[Fenris]

A good rebuttal of RU's alternate world view by a Polish minister at the UN

 

[Kinophile]

Hmmm. 

 

[Kinophile]

 

[Kinophile]

 

[Kinophile]

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Is this quite accurate? Microwave emitters are a form of EW. Broader than lasers,  more of a zone/volume effect weapon, correct?

AFAIK microwave weapons are considered "directed energy" and not EW.  EW is designed to interfere, directed energy is designed to destroy.  This is the difference between jamming someone's radar and frying everything that makes the radar work.  Two different types of capabilities.

Or better still, think of an EMP blast.  Electrons, but not EW.

Steve

[sross112]

EW question. There have been several references to the RA not being able to use their own drones due to their own EW. Is this a hazard of EW that it shuts everything, including your own stuff, down? Or is it able to be directed at a certain range of signals and if your stuff is different from the enemy's yours will be fine? I'm assuming that both sides are using a large array of commercial drones and military drones that operate on a plethora of signals and due to that the RA is just jamming everything? Seriously don't know much about this, so any clarification is appreciated. Thanks in advance.

[paxromana]

48 minutes ago, sross112 said:

EW question. There have been several references to the RA not being able to use their own drones due to their own EW. Is this a hazard of EW that it shuts everything, including your own stuff, down? Or is it able to be directed at a certain range of signals and if your stuff is different from the enemy's yours will be fine? I'm assuming that both sides are using a large array of commercial drones and military drones that operate on a plethora of signals and due to that the RA is just jamming everything? Seriously don't know much about this, so any clarification is appreciated. Thanks in advance.

I'm guessing, but AIUI Radio (and TV) Jamming is done on targetted frequencies because a wide spectrum Jammer would simply require too much power ... I suspect the current problem is that a lot of drones are commercial, and use the same narrow band of frequencies, and that even the militarised ones do as well.

I suppose that Drones could be equipped to do Frequency Hopping, but that would, presumably, add to their cost to some degree.

[Kinophile]

"Over £100 million of the package will reportedly be spent to procure "maritime capabilities"."

Really hope the RN and SBS are all over the Slow Death of the BSF. 

 

[chris talpas]

The one thing I worry about as we march towards autonomous systems is that we could be sowing the seeds of our destruction by our AI overlords.  I’m sure they will thank us for the proof of concept.

Of course one would be foolish to not develop this technology while one’s enemies do.

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, paxromana said:

I'm guessing, but AIUI Radio (and TV) Jamming is done on targetted frequencies because a wide spectrum Jammer would simply require too much power ... I suspect the current problem is that a lot of drones are commercial, and use the same narrow band of frequencies, and that even the militarised ones do as well.

Yes, the problem is common frequencies for practical reasons are shared between Ukrainian and Russian drones.  EW "friendly fire" has been a problem since 2022 and almost certainly before (but with the frozen war fairly calm it was easier to work around and less problematic if you couldn't).

2 hours ago, paxromana said:

I suppose that Drones could be equipped to do Frequency Hopping, but that would, presumably, add to their cost to some degree.

This is combated by powerful systems which can jam multiple frequency ranges concurrently.  Say a drone has 10 frequencies it can hop between, you try to jam all 10.  Which means you're right back to where you were without hopping.

I suspect some of the Russian problems are the result of a lack of internal coordination and Russia's well earned reputation for using a hammer to drive a screw.  In this case, instead of delicately tuning their EW strategy they just dial it up to 11 and mission accomplished.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

Frequency hopping is great, but all the sudden you the benefits of all the ICs and antennas for the normal frequencies used this stuff and you start needing custom silicon. At scale, not horribly expensive, but starting out, there’s a serious investment needed. Software defined radios aren’t cheap or easy across wider frequency bands, and especially not in higher frequencies.

Basic autonomy is likely much easier, cheaper and more effective in every way. You can’t jam it, there’s no last mile guidance interference, you don’t need a transmitter, and your machine learning training can immediately be applied across the entire fleet.