How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Probus]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Down the middle of this entire mess is a very small window of “just enough, just in time” which I suspect we are really aiming at.

But why? Why is the EU and USA doing that? Don't they know how important this conflict is? Do they not want to see Russia collapse (even at the risk it may cause a major power vacuum)? Why did we 'fight' the Cold War? The hard right was all behind defeating the USSR. Now they've flip-flopped. I just don't get it. All we have to do is provide arms to the Ukrainians. That supports our defense industry. No US servicemen (or women) are being asked to risk their lives. This should be a no-brainer. Is it because of the election year?

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Probus said:

But why? Why is the EU and USA doing that? Don't they know how important this conflict is? Do they not want to see Russia collapse (even at the risk it may cause a major power vacuum)? Why did we 'fight' the Cold War? The hard right was all behind defeating the USSR. Now they've flip-flopped. I just don't get it. All we have to do is provide arms to the Ukrainians. That supports our defense industry. No US servicemen (or women) are being asked to risk their lives. This should be a no-brainer. Is it because of the election year?

To many people that matter are convinced that the world can be reset to the day before the Russian full scale invasion. The reluctance to admit that long term trajectories have changed permanently has still not been overcome. Defense spending is going to have to have higher for multiple decades, globalization is going to slowed, and perhaps reversed for decades. The secular cult of share holder value being the ONLY thing that matters is needs to be staked in the heart, permanently. Boeing being exhibit A on that one. Hopefully it won't take Ukraine falling, and Russia invading the Baltics to get the point across. Or maybe Trump wins and civilization takes a multi-century wrong turn into a dystopian nightmare.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-24-2024

ISW has a nice executive summary of the whole war if anybody is looking for one to hand out to people paying less attention.

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

To many people that matter are convinced that the world can be reset to the day before the Russian full scale invasion.

Pretty much this. It’s really a “peace in our time” moment, while everybody else is arming up and preparing for the inevitable.

[Aragorn2002]

16 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Yeah, no way it was West.

I think this really really shows the disconnect in thinking between Russia and the West.

Putin is already saying this is existential war for Russia, he is already saying his objective is to destroy the West, and his people - whether random Russians or weirdos and traitors and useful idiots everwhere in the world - are already believing it. He is already doing everything in his power to do that too - from propaganda to interfering with elections to financing fascist parties to helping Hamas to working with Iran and China to assassinating people in other countries to attacking food to cause famine in Africa because refugee crisis empower Western Fascist to whatever else I have lost track.

Russia already escalated as high as they dared. If they could do worse, if they could do something more despicable, if they could do something more monstrous, they would have done it years ago.

I remember all these red lines - nuclear war if West gives Ukraine Javelins, nuclear war if West gives Ukraine tanks, nuclear war if West gives Ukraine planes, nuclear West gives Ukraine gets HIMARS, nuclear war if Ukraine attacks Russian warships, nuclear war if Ukraine fires missiles into Russia ... So really I think if West shot down Russian plane they would do nothing like every time before.

At the same time, the Western decision makers think (or behave as if they thought) that Russia is a country and not a mafia, and that they are not actually at (hybrid) war with us, and that they can be reasoned with and that keeping some kind of "civilized behavior" with Russia is something that makes sense. This is of course wrong - Russia only understands strength and considers humanity a weakness to be exploited - being civilized or nice only makes you hurt.

So no way it really was West - if West had balls to engage Russia directly, our current conversation topic on this forum would be "do you think the warlord Ivanov will also take south of Moscow?" and not "it's not good that Ukraine is losing ground and people because West decided to not supply them with enough ammo but what can you do, it could be worse".

...

Anyway, one thing I wanted to say: This actually is an existential war for Russia in a way. It is existential for Putin, sure, but as we came to understood during the war and as we discussed a few times, the common (but by no means only) mindset in common Russians is "things are ****, they used to get better and now they don't, but you know what, at least we are a badass empire". They might be even deluding themselves into thinking that things being bad is a voluntary sacrifice for that badass empire. Lot of people are willing to suffer a lot for being part of something they consider greater than themselves.

Being decisively shown that Russia is not in fact a cool badass empire they be proud of even if they don't themselves have indoor toilets might really break their worlds. Whatever comes out of that would not be Russia as we know it anymore. This is not existential war for Russia because they will end up in mass graves or enslaved if they lose (like it is for Ukrainians), but it is existential for the Russian imperial mindset.

Well said! Especially the bold part.

[panzermartin]

11 hours ago, Grigb said:

Let's look at detection and early warning ranges.

New sketch based on UKR Mashovets post

Here are detection ranges from A-50 Old Patrolling Route.

Some info

 

Thanks, It's going to hurt indeed, probably to the point they have to delay or redesign any offensive operations. 

What I'm not sure is how good was its radar in detecting incoming missiles or even drones. I think the UKR SU 24 stayed on the edge of the detection zone/AAA before launching their storm shadows. 

[Letter from Prague]

44 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

What I'm not sure is how good was its radar in detecting incoming missiles or even drones. I think the UKR SU 24 stayed on the edge of the detection zone/AAA before launching their storm shadows. 

I think a lot of it is just matter of height. Horizon is hundreds of kilometers away if you're few kilometers up. And that's just the ground, planes can see planes (or at least have line of sight) from really far, compared to ground stations.

...

There's news on Transnistria declaring itself part of Russia soon. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/02/22/7180220/ I'm not sure what impact that has, other than further destabilization of everything.

[Grigb]

3 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Thanks, It's going to hurt indeed, probably to the point they have to delay or redesign any offensive operations. 

What I'm not sure is how good was its radar in detecting incoming missiles or even drones. I think the UKR SU 24 stayed on the edge of the detection zone/AAA before launching their storm shadows. 

RU Rybar gave following most probable description of UKR attack on BDK Novorossysk.

1. RU did not detect neither take off nor flight of UKR Su-24 from Starokostyantynyv airfield toward Feodosia (target location)
2. At 3 AM RU detected missile launch from direction of Snihurivka (direction is not equal to near, usually it means closer to target but on the same axis)
3. RU did not detect flight to Kanatovo airfield
4. at 4 AM RU detected take off and flight of two planes from Kanatovo airfield to Starokostyantynyv airfield

Analysis

Given Rybar said truth, from the old patrolling area:

• RU could detect air targets at medium (and high) altitudes throughout Central Ukraine
• RU could detect air targets at low altitudes only at the Storm Shadow detection line
• UKR planes could operate at low altitudes undetected during attacks, but for routine operations, they prefer to operate at medium altitudes, even if it means being detected (probably because low flying operations reduce range and are dangerous)
• Monitoring UKR air activity makes it simpler for RU to establish the approximate present location of UKR planes for missile attacks that UKR has minimal possibility of countering

Conclusion

First, Pushing A-50 further away reduces the risk of RU missile attacks on UKR airfields, that UKR cannot defend against. Given the arrival of the F-16 (HVT for RU), it is likely that UKR are providing a "safe space" for the F-16 to operate. Interesting, but it appears that the delay in sending F-16s might be due to the risk of operating them while the A-50 is near, rather than a lack of political will.

Second, pushing A-50 further east brings missile detection range directly to the frontline. It allows UKR planes to fly at low altitude to the front lines undetected, providing support for troops at a considerably lower risk.

Edited February 25 by Grigb

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Probus said:

But why? Why is the EU and USA doing that? Don't they know how important this conflict is? Do they not want to see Russia collapse (even at the risk it may cause a major power vacuum)? Why did we 'fight' the Cold War? The hard right was all behind defeating the USSR. Now they've flip-flopped. I just don't get it. All we have to do is provide arms to the Ukrainians. That supports our defense industry. No US servicemen (or women) are being asked to risk their lives. This should be a no-brainer. Is it because of the election year?

I don’t think anyone of serious power in the West wants a full Russian collapse.  The overall Western grand strategy since the end of the Cold War has been “stable status quo”.  We have spent the last 33 years pretty much working on all fronts to sustain “the system”.  We toss scarfs and hats on it but at its core is a central unchanging stability.  Why?  Because stability is good business.  The West, with the US at the centre built the scheme that “won” the Cold War and want that party to keep going because we get very rich off it.  The rest of the world makes our stuff for cheap, while also buying our other stuff.  

But pretty much from Day 1 “the others” pushed back.  First was the intra-war years, interventions and then terrorism.  Now this has upscaled to “revisionist states” and “power competition”.  Russia invaded Ukraine for several reasons but one of them definitely was to demonstrate that they are not going to be bound by western rules (Hell, Putin said exactly this in that speech back in Sep ‘22).  This puts the West in a dilemma, they can either do too little and Russia threatens the system, or they crush Russia…and it threatens the system.  So they appear to have chosen the middle path, which of course is getting hijacked by the internal movements who want to…wait for it…change the system.  MAGA, alt-right, nationalists, whatever, all disagree with “the system” even though it has made everyone richer.  The reality is that it did not make everyone equally rich so discontent is natural.  Worse, power spheres exploit this so they can get more powerful (and richer).  So Rust-Belt yokels eat this stuff up and start to dismantle “the system”, which includes democracy apparently.  The reality is Trump is a symptom, not a cause and I am not sure even they realize how dangerous this game they are playing is.

So Ukraine happens and becomes a symbol of a “war for, and against, the system.”  It isn’t about the fact that killing innocent Ukrainians is wrong - hell if morales like human life mattered we wouldn’t have Gaza.  No, Ukraine is all about “the system” and both sides appear to be waging it viewed through that lens.  Russia needs to show that they are going to play by their own rules, but not completely break themselves.  One could ask “why is Russia fighting this war by half measures?”  Do they enjoy a quagmire?  No, Putin understands what he has gotten himself into and is adopting a slow burn strategy, hoping we will get distracted and caught up in our own nonsense…and he might be right.

The rest of the West is trying to step up, but frankly we have grown awfully fat, dumb and happy on the back of the US - who now is having a bipolar fit.  In the end, we can live with a fallen Ukraine.  We can shore up the borders and lock Russia out.  We can live with a partial victory in Ukraine, do we really care about Crimea, LNR and DNR?  No, we did not in ‘14 and we don’t now.  We can’t live with a completely imploded Russia.  Those are where the real risks lie.  Too many unknowns that could really break the system.  So we wind up with a half hearted war designed to punish Russia for challenging the system but not destroy them.  Ukraine is, and I am being brutally honest here, is almost secondary to the entire conversation.  It was simply a very unfortunate country where both sides could try and prove a point.  We love Ukraine all of a sudden because they are an opportunity to show that 1) Russia was wrong to challenge the system, and 2) the system still works.  

I strongly suspect this is why this war is also so muddled in military circles.  We are watching a war to defend the system..that is demonstrating the weaknesses of our own military system at the same time.  So we put blinders on and try to pretend it isn’t happening.  Our military power has to still be relevant…otherwise how can we defend the system?

So to answer your question, “yes, the US and the West know exactly how important Ukraine really is and are fighting this war based on that calculus.”  The answer however is “somewhat important”.  We care and feel bad, but care much more about our own issues.  Putin read the short game about as wrong as one can.  He may have read the long game extremely well.  The way to beat the West is not outright confrontation, it is apathy.  2 years is forever for a culture addicted to clicks and flashing lights.  Putin’s off ramp is being able to draw a victory line somewhere of his choosing and he is shooting for that.  And we might just let him get there.

Now I would not start freaking out and worry about a second attack on Kyiv.  Something that dramatic might actually get our attention again.  No, this needs to become a boring war - I am starting to think Putin’s Tucker Carlson interview was smarter than we thought.  What better way to get Western audiences to yawn and start to change the channel than a history lesson?

Edited February 25 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU Rybar gave following most probable description of UKR attack on BDK Novorossysk.

1. RU did not detect neither take off nor flight of UKR Su-24 from Starokostyantynyv airfield toward Feodosia (target location)
2. At 3 AM RU detected missile launch from direction of Snihurivka (direction is not equal to near, usually it means closer to target but on the same axis)
3. RU did not detect flight to Kanatovo airfield
4. at 4 AM RU detected take off of and flight of two planes from Kanatovo airfield and Starokostyantynyv airfield

Analysis

Given Rybar said truth, from the old patrolling area:

• RU could detect air targets at medium (and high) altitudes throughout Central Ukraine
• RU could detect air targets at low altitudes only at the Storm Shadow detection line
• UKR planes could operate at low altitudes undetected during attacks, but for routine operations, they prefer to operate at middle latitudes, even if it means being detected (probably because low flying operations reduce range and are dangerous)
• Monitoring UKR air activity makes it simpler for RU to establish the approximate present location of UKR planes for missile attacks that UKR has minimal possibility of countering

Conclusion

First, Pushing A-50 further away reduces the risk of RU missile attacks on UKR airfields, that UKR cannot defend against. Given the arrival of the F-16 (HVT for RU), it is likely that UKR are providing a "safe space" for the F-16 to operate. Interesting, but it appears that the delay in sending F-16s might be due to the risk of operating them while the A-50 is near, rather than a lack of political will.

Second, pushing A-50 further east brings missile detection range directly to the frontline. It allows UKR planes to fly at low altitude to the front lines undetected, providing support for troops at a considerably lower risk.

Now that is interesting.  This was a c-C4ISR move, clearly.  Russia does not have the same space based capabilities.   Now what else will Ukraine do to blind and numb-out Russian command and control?  One A50 is a start.  And what is the endgame here?  Make space for Ukrainian local air superiority?  Oh my, wouldn’t that break minds?

[Kraft]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And what is the endgame here?  Make space for Ukrainian local air superiority?

Or rather, be able to support and gtfo without getting swarmed by russian CAP, which outnumbers greatly - especially since the F-16s and their pilots will likely arrive piecemeal.

[Grigb]

36 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now that is interesting.  This was a c-C4ISR move, clearly.  Russia does not have the same space based capabilities.   Now what else will Ukraine do to blind and numb-out Russian command and control?  One A50 is a start.  And what is the endgame here?  Make space for Ukrainian local air superiority?  Oh my, wouldn’t that break minds?

I think it would permit UKR AF to begin hammering RU Kherson direction troops with JDAMs. The RU Kherson troops are not in very good shape already. The JDAM campaign has the potential to tilt the balance in favor of UKR. And once it is done the overall RU situation in the whole southern operational zone is quite perilous.

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I think it would permit UKR AF to begin hammering RU Kherson direction troops with JDAMs. The RU Kherson troops are not in very good shape already. The JDAM campaign has the potential to tilt the balance in favor of UKR. And once it is done the overall RU situation in the whole southern operational zone is quite perilous.

I have always had an eye on the Kherson sector.  I thought those river crossings last year could be the start of something…here is hoping for this year.

[evilcommie]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 I thought those river crossings last year could be the start of something…here is hoping for this year.

I just don't see how Ukraine will be launching any more offensives given the disparity in Artillery Ammunition supply vs the Russians. 

[Ales Dvorak]

Nord Stream part IV...

https://nordictimes.com/world/independent-investigator-elements-of-uk-government-behind-nord-stream-attacks/

[Haiduk]

Oleksandr Kamyshyn (on the photo below), the minister of strategic branches of industry has made a statement, that in past year Ukrainian military began to work on Russian territory with a missiles of Ukrainian production. In particular, Ukrainian missile hit a target on the range in 700 km.

This is a misisle program, but I don't tell more about this, than president. But now we have long-range missile system, which capable to strike on 700 km. 

In past year The Defense Forces began to work on strategical targets on Russian territory with Ukrainian produced weapon. You have seen drones in the air and on the sea, working on these targets. This year will become a year, when we will see them on the ground [means we will see targets being hit from the ground] -  said minister.

 

In own turn, Mykhailo Fedorov (on the photo above), the minister of digital transformation claimed from a million of drones, which will be produced by state program, 90 % will be produced in Ukraine. Also he told now Ukraine actively develops own manufacturing of drone components, to avoid dependense from China. About 70 % of parts for state progtrm drones already produce in Ukraine

    

Edited February 25 by Haiduk

[Kraft]

28 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Nord Stream part IV...

https://nordictimes.com/world/independent-investigator-elements-of-uk-government-behind-nord-stream-attacks/

What a source

we have a Ukrainian boat, a US Soldiers diving boot, a UK Sub with a tarp on top and in another article they claim Norway was also involved? must've been a busy diving spot!

Edited February 25 by Kraft

[Eddy]

18 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Nord Stream part IV...

https://nordictimes.com/world/independent-investigator-elements-of-uk-government-behind-nord-stream-attacks/

Fellow forum readers, you only have one life (probably). Do not waste any of it reading this absolute bollocks.. I will summarise:

Premises:

• A minister went to HMS Clyde on a super secret mission, taking a reporter with him!
• The UK has a submarine called HMS Ambush that the minister visited
• The submarine had a tarp on it
• The UK has trained underwater bomb disposal divers
• Liz Truss said something    

Conclusion: The UK blew up Nord Stream.

[hcrof]

28 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Nord Stream part IV...

https://nordictimes.com/world/independent-investigator-elements-of-uk-government-behind-nord-stream-attacks/

Literally the only "evidence" they have is a picture of a submarine with a tarpaulin on top. That's it. The best part is that "Liz Truss disappeared for three days" like she personally swam over and blew up the pipe. This is getting desperate...

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Supposedly Il 22 is still a possibility? 

 

Osint Technical isn't often wrong, but I'm not buying yet... 

There was no Il-22 in this time. The story about it was shot down too was shared through social media because of confused information issue from Air Force Command. They meant incident of Jan 14, when first A-50 was destroyed and Il-22 damaged, but this has sounded like incident of Feb 23, especially on background of reports from locals, that two planes fell down (but this turned out A-50, teared off on two burning parts). Officially UKR claimed only one A-50U in that day   

[The_Capt]

46 minutes ago, evilcommie said:

I just don't see how Ukraine will be launching any more offensives given the disparity in Artillery Ammunition supply vs the Russians. 

Well they would need to field an offset, which would be FPVs or some such.  No one has ever achieved firepower superiority (let alone dominance) using UAS but if it is going to happen anytime soon it will be in this war.  It will be a test of “massed precision beats everything” if the UA can create and project the mass.

Or we could stop with the jerking around and simply send more boom-boom.  Or, crazy idea, we do both and really light a fire under this thing.

[Haiduk]

58 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I thought those river crossings last year could be the start of something…here is hoping for this year.

Especailly interesting, knowing that Sweden is handing over 10 Stridsbåt 90 armored assault landing boats

... and 20 Gruppbåt

By the way Stridsbåt 90 was a specimen for Russian Raptor class and BK-16 class boats of different purpose - assault landing, patrol, anti-sabateur. Probably Sweden gave production license, or Russia bought a boat to develop own project on its base.  

 

[Harmon Rabb]

New message from Budanov.

[Haiduk]

Yesterday I posted Russian video, how Russians of 70th MRR disembark infantry from two BMP-3 near ruined post office in Robotyne. 

Many people became to share a panic "Robotyne is lost" (Julian Roepke in the first flight as always)

But morning is coming and here UKR video of aftermath of this disembarking (first part of video is Russian, then - Ukrainian with backround song "I'm Russian" as a mockery)

Serviceman of probably 65th mech.brigade writes from there:

Robotyne is under AFU control

We drove out pidors at the morning

Edited February 25 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Now that is interesting.  This was a c-C4ISR move, clearly.  Russia does not have the same space based capabilities.   Now what else will Ukraine do to blind and numb-out Russian command and control?  One A50 is a start.  And what is the endgame here?  Make space for Ukrainian local air superiority?  Oh my, wouldn’t that break minds?

Budanov said today the operation planning of A-50 hunting has took about two weeks. If Russia lost the third A-50 they will be forced to stop 24 hours flights, when one plane substitute other in the air. Thus, we can make conclusion, next step will be hunting for the third A-50.