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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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24 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Wait, I think there might be confusion of which plane where. There's reports of both A-50 and a transport plane. For example, liveuamap places the A-50 near the front and the transport deep in Russia.

Is it one plane or two?

It's possible Ukrainian air defense shot down the A-50 neaby and something else happened with the transport plane.

  • According to the most reliable reports, A-50, which was somewhat deep in Russia (see my drawing above), was hit. There were reports of two planes or one plane and one helicopter hit, however it appears that A-50 been broken into two parts, which were misidentified as two planes.
  • There is a report based on video of broken parts that it was not A-50 but IL-76 transport airplane. I am waiting verification on this one.
  • The UKR AF claims to have downed the A-50 and IL-22 command post. I am waiting verification on this one.
  • Also, there are reports that Su-34 in Kherson negatively gained altitude. 

One thing is certain: the RU Day of the Fatherland Defender was a great success. If you know what I mean.

[EDIT]

  • Rybar's map depicts a crashed A-50 near Mariupol. But it was dated 15.01.24. Probably something like this has caused the misunderstanding.
  • Looks like IL-22 was not confirmed
  • It is still possible that there are two planes. The reports are conflicting and confusing. Nobody seems to know right now.
Edited by Grigb
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49 minutes ago, riptides said:

There were a lot of Russian aircraft greeting the ground this week.

Somethings new and it's not people moving around with MANPADS IMHO.

 

Kinda feels like a deep strike op.  Hitting on multiple levels.  Unless they sent in Starstreak which can hit up to 20k feet.  Or maybe something we haven’t seen yet.

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1 hour ago, Grigb said:

According to the most reliable reports, A-50, which was somewhat deep in Russia (see my drawing above), was hit. There were reports of two planes or one plane and one helicopter hit, however it appears that A-50 been broken into two parts, which were misidentified as two planes.

  1. You're a kinda week or two late with the news.
  2. It was A-50 and Il-22. Seems like A-50 didn't make it and Il-22 was able to survive.
  3. You sure you can a be a reliable and referencable source if you missed these basic things?
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3 hours ago, Grigb said:

Regarding Boat - they managed to do this

f2tdt84xua8j1rc.jpeg?itok=VcU_wpyZ

So, i think Boaty McBoatface with a couple of ASRAAM is possible. The range is around 50 km. And it is infrared homing. 

Speaking of boats, I have just now learned that the French have SAM equipped submarines. Maybe they let Ukraine borrow one 😁

Edited by Letter from Prague
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16 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Easy, tiger...

Why? 😬 People throw around statements thay have no basis for. Moreover those can be refuted by bloody kitchen logic without being privy to how A-50 works. And save for that who post them should have decency to spend 1-2 hrs per day of real intensive job of tracking sources from both sides. When I missed the point in life when people cannot held resposbile at least moreally for the answers they offer?

Edited by IMHO
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Much less interesting than the aircraft news, but it is nice to see that Ukraine does not forget infantry equipment:

 

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/czech-bren-2-will-be-assembled-at-the-facilities-of-ukroboronprom-enterprises/

 

CZ Bren 2 assault rifles will be assembled in Ukroboronprom facilities.

More NATO integration is never wrong, even though Ukraine will continue to struggle with standardisation of its massive equipment collection for the foreseeable time.

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19 minutes ago, IMHO said:
  1. You're a kinda week or two late with the news.
  2. It was A-50 and Il-22. Seems like A-50 didn't make it and Il-22 was able to survive.
  3. You sure you can a be a reliable and referencable source if you missed these basic things?

How can he be a week or two late when the plane came down less than a day ago?

You seem to be referring to the A50 that was shot down in mid-January (and an Il-22 damaged).

This is a second one that has come down and rumors are still swirling.

Talking about missing basic things...

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1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

I don't get why Russians keep claiming FF. It makes them look bad, and it makes it out like the key to defeating the Russian air force is their own air defense. Lmao

What I've picked up is that they can't admit that the Ukrainian "Untermenschen" have the capability to do this so the next best thing is to blame their own AD. I also sorta suspect its the nature of the authoritarian system. You can blame the AD network all day and no one is going to come out swinging about incompetency unless they want to see the inside of a prison and possibly find themselves on the next train to the western front.  However, by crediting Ukraine you are creating a situation where people might start taking actions driven by fear.

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3 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

How can he be a week or two late when the plane came down less than a day ago?

You seem to be referring to the A50 that was shot down in mid-January (and an Il-22 damaged).

This is a second one that has come down and rumors are still swirling.

Talking about missing basic things...

This one?
https://zn.ua/war/rossijskij-samolet-a-50-iz-sovetskoho-zrk-s-200-smi.html

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The simplest explanation is (A) if a plane is somewhere where it hadn't ought at night its liable to attract unwanted friendly attention. The more 'heroic' explanation is (B) a daring infiltration of Ukr AA units on a near-suicide mission. The more sci-fi explanation is (C) new unsuspected technology. My guess is a combination of A and C. The plane got a missile warning alert that caused it to maneuver wildly, which then spooked the local air defense. But what do I know? 🙃

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19 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Yes, that one, where they link to Ukrainian Pravda, which says "on February 23, Ukrainian defense forces shot down a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft" - February 23, not a week or two ago.

  1. Yepp. Seem like it's positively confirmed by both sides it was downed. Sorry I missed it on Fri night :(
  2. S-200 seems to me as like rather dubious option as a (rather creazy) explanation of S-400 downing its own plane as I'm now seeing in Russian propaganda channels.
  3. Let's see how it goes yet I'd vouch for "nomad Patriots". It's unbeatable when one can guide a missile to a terminal stage a  through a platform one can not (theoretecally) down -- RQ or whatever in neutral space.
  4. It'll end up in tactical nukes:( He's crazy. Totally :(
Edited by IMHO
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11 minutes ago, Blazing 88's said:

Comrade, catch it on the ticker here if you don't believe other links:

And what? Some camera feeds from God knows what logistics parks? You wanted to collect my browser fingerprints or what?

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10 minutes ago, Kraft said:

New video, looks like this was local AA

 

By order of Russian MoD, we are tired of not being believed when we say friendly fire downed our planes. Therefore, if you launch AA rockets at target you must video it and upload it to internet so we can prove to decadent and ineffectual west we shot ours down.

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