Kinophile Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said: My God, this is like tenth time someone killed a high ranking Russian and bunch of soldiers because they showed up in strike range and someone organized a parade. Why would you keep making the same stupid mistake again and again and again and again. It's stupidity like this that makes me hopeful that Ukraine will win. DOLBOYEBIZM! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I don't think anyone reasonable considered the F-16s magical weapons. They are replacements for MiGs and SUs - planes wear down, especially when used in combat conditions and Ukraine has gotten all the spare parts and replacements for their MiGs and SUs that they ever will - there are barely any more in the world and Russia will for sure not make more. The F-16s are reasonable and cost effective way to get Ukraine replacements, to make sure Ukraine even has an airforce because the current planes are probably falling apart as we speak. It would also allow Ukraine to use modern NATO weapons without crazy hacking like getting MiG-29 to launch HARM which is cool but probably lot of bull to handle and to keep it working. While it is very possible the F-16s will change the situation - because for example, the Russians using glide bombs seems to have lot of impact so Ukraine getting easy access to those as well could be expected to push the needle - I think it's disingenuous to claim there's hosts of people who claim they will definitely change everything. Where are those people? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Quote https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/science/satellites-albedo-privacy.html Albedo aims to leap ahead by imaging objects as small as 10 centimeters, or four inches. That became possible because the Trump administration in 2018 took steps to relax the regulations that govern civil satellite resolution. “Soon,” Technology Review, an M.I.T. magazine, warned in 2019, “satellites will be able to watch you everywhere all the time.” The unblinking eye will be with you shortly... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Oh, look. Theres one of them now, right on schedule. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Whoa, everybody settle down. I don’t think anyone believes in war winning platforms anymore. If we can inject them into the UA to sustain current capabilities that is a great idea. But as we have seen with numerous platforms and equipment, none really changed the course of the war. Together they ensured the US stayed in the fight and frankly right now that is what they really need. The closest things we have seen to game changers are HIMARs and UAS. HIMARs were able to go that last mile - UA C4ISR could see (being linked into western ISR) but could not reach. HIMARs and other deep strike allowed for targeting much deeper than before. This did cause operational effects as the RA scrambled to shift logistics and C2 nodes, while getting hit. One could argue the RA failure of Summer ‘22 followed by massive gains that fall were enabled greatly by these systems. But then the RA adapted, and although has to live with this new constraint, have continued to operate. No point in getting all worked up. F16s are not a bad idea but what we don’t want are F16s but no artillery ammunition. Many of us have been saying - C4ISR, Precision/Fires, Unmanned and Infantry. Try everything and anything else but do not get those four wrong. And right now we are starting to fail on that Fires pillar. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFCElvis Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 @The_Captis right, as usual. EVERYONE settle down with the personal shots and sniping. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) EDIT: Sorry, @BFCElvis saw your post too late. Deleted my reply. Edited February 22 by Butschi 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, JonS said: See: hostomel airport Edit: wait, not hostomel. What was that airport near Kherson that the Russians just *kept* deploying helos to? Chornobaivka - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Chornobaivka_attacks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 hours ago, chrisl said: You have to do it all in realtime, probably with an underpowered computer (even if it's pretty powerful by 2 years ago standards). Drone cameras are primarily intended for drone operations and there's not a lot of reason to constrain them for sensor fusion if it doesn't have to be realtime. Slurp it all up, send it all to a data store, and some combination of people and computers can chew on it at their leisure. Realtime is a rather vague concept... anything between a few milliseconds per cycle and several seconds, depending on whom you ask. But yes, that is another fundamental difference in that regard. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, Letter from Prague said: My God, this is like tenth time someone killed a high ranking Russian and bunch of soldiers because they showed up in strike range and someone organized a parade. Why would you keep making the same stupid mistake again and again and again and again. It's stupidity like this that makes me hopeful that Ukraine will win. Darwin had a theory about that. I believe it is now the basis for an award. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Offshoot said: Chornobaivka - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Chornobaivka_attacks Theres not just one, not just two, theres three catchy songs about it Edited February 22 by Kraft 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, dan/california said: or four inches Uh oh... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Captain Pletenchuk shares some information on the BSF having issues using Caliber missiles. Quote They have big problems": the spokesman of the Navy explained why the Russians almost do not use "Caliber" for strikes on Ukraine The main ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, carriers of cruise missiles, are still afloat and can still fire on the territory of Ukraine. However, they no longer use Caliber for strikes. Spokesman of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Captain 3rd Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk https://uatv.ua/uk/korabli-ne-maye-sensu-popovnyuvaty-pletenchuk-rozpoviv-pro-stan-chornomorskogo-flotu-rf-i-sytuatsiyu-iz-zavantazhennyam-kalibriv/ believes that the Russian Federation has problems with "Kalibra" due to military logistics. Carriers can be loaded with such missiles in Crimea, but the occupiers have recently been trying to avoid the peninsula. Details As we can see, they have not used cruise missile carriers for a long time. The only confirmed salvo, four missiles from the Admiral Makarov frigate, was after the destruction of the Caesar Kunikov. This is such an act of desperation, they could not remain silent in this situation. But having there are theoretically eight missiles on board, he used only four. This also says a lot," says Pletenchuk. The fact is that their Novorossiysk military base is not designed to load Kalibr missiles; the Russian Federation can equip its ships with such ballistics only at the Sevastopol base. "And it still remains a problem for them," remarked the captain of the 3rd rank. "The aggressor perfectly understands the situation for a long time. Therefore, he takes appropriate measures, such as dispersal of ships and boats, change of base points, periodic redeployment of ships between base points, primarily Novorossiysk, Sochi, Tuapse," Pletenchuk explained. According to him, the Russian Federation has already lost a third of its fleet in the waters of the Black Sea. "It makes no sense to replenish (ammunition), because even those ships that are available now, they do not fully fulfill the tasks for which they are there," the military officer added In the morning of February 14, people woke up to powerful explosions in the temporarily occupied Crimea . Later it became known that the GUR and ZSU attacked the Russian large amphibious assault ship "Cesar Kunikov" with naval drones. He found a hole in the port side, lay on his side, and then went to the bottom in the Alupka area. https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/pishov-na-dno-u-chornomu-mori-urazheno-rosijskij-vdk-tsezar-kunikov-okupanti-pidnyali-v-povitrya-ka-27-zmi.htm Meanwhile, the experts told how many VDK remained with the occupiers in the Black Sea after the loss of "Caesar Kunikov". https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/skilki-vdk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) 4 hours ago, Haiduk said: dolboyebizm [I can't translate this in Englisg equivalent - it means "enormously fu...g stupid way of decision making or a deed]. Perhaps: "Delboyism"? Derrick "Del-boy" Trotter, British classic sitcom icon, cockney who sells stolen goods: EDIT: He even claims to support Chelsea. Edited February 22 by fireship4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) Ahh Delboy. So damn funny. Still, I think Clusterf**k is the closest English version, to wit: Quote A [sudden] and disastrously mishandled situation or undertaking. Seems accurate. Edited February 22 by Kinophile 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said: Captain Pletenchuk shares some information on the BSF having issues using Caliber missiles. Well, that's an interesting problem I didn't know to look for. It makes sense that loading such missiles onto a ship involves specialized services. Silly them for having the entire BSF serviced by just one location that is now a really bad idea to be using on a regular basis. Reloading must take long enough to make the ship a sitting duck. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, Kinophile said: Ahh Delboy. So damn funny. Still, I think Clusterf**k is the closest English version, to wit: Seems accurate. As a minor aside, I've started abbreviating that now as C9K, as a play on IT world abbreviations like I18N, L11N 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NamEndedAllen Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Saw this posted by Garry Kasparov 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 13 hours ago, The_Capt said: So a complete withdrawal to pre-2014 lines and a lasting peace agreement that allows Ukraine to enter NATO. You are on and I earnestly hope I lose this bet. So, the bet is on. Thank you. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I want to discuss that RU DOLBOYEBIZM with formations of troops on a training ground within HIMARs range. I was reading the RU Nat conversations and came across an interesting comment. As usual, RU Nats were arguing that RU generals should be executed. Then one man added, "Don't make blind claims about generals. These formations are common. They [training ground officers] do it regularly, and not only for generals". I began to wonder why they did it (if it was true). The explanation is actually rather simple: an AWOL problem. There is minimal transportation on the front lines, thus little opportunity to go AWOL. The training grounds are different. It is several dozens of kilometers behind the front line. There are many more possibilities for transportation, including civilian cars. So, how do you know if somebody is missing? You regularly arrange soldiers in formation and count them. Why can't subordinate commanders count soldiers in small groups and report back to you? Because that is the RU army. Your subordinate commander is full of BS; they take bribes and declare that everyone is present. The only accurate method is to count soldiers oneself. Dolboyoby. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 hours ago, Kinophile said: hh Delboy. So damn funny. Still, I think Clusterf**k is the closest English version, to wit: Quote A [sudden] and disastrously mishandled situation or undertaking. Seems accurate. Translating dolboyebism is a complex task. You need to include several steps First, Dolboyebism - the suffix "-ism" suggests that this is a word denoting things related to another word, in this context it would probably mean "something that a dolbayeb would do" (a hypothesis confirmed by meaningful conclusion of step 2). Second, "dolbayeb" is a compound word, where two parts may be distinguished: "do lba" (to the head) and "yeb". Given that we are dealing with a swear word, it may be safely assumed that "yeb" pertains to "yebat", to have sex (rude). Thus we arrive at "dolbayeb" - man, with whose head someone had sex (presumably damaging it in the process) - and "dolbayebism" - "a thing so stupid, that it could be done by a man, with whose head someone had sex, damaging it in the process". On the Internet I found someone's translation of "dolbayeb" as "****head", which I like as it is both correct as to the meaning and the closest ethymologically. Dolboyebism thus could be translated as "****headery" or "****headism". 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) 56 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said: On the Internet I found someone's translation of "dolbayeb" as "****head", which I like as it is both correct as to the meaning and the closest ethymologically. Dolboyebism thus could be translated as "****headery" or "****headism". English has ****headedness but although it can mean stupidity or being obnoxious, it doesn't really convey the idea of deliberately making decisions that are stupid. I had suggested cock up but a cock up could happen by accident rather than being a deliberate act of stupidity. There is another compound word that includes elements of the direct translation and according to the Urban Dictionary means "an extreme degree of nonsense, especially when coming from an authoritative figure" (so pretty bang on in the case of officers lining soldiers up near the front line) - s**tf**kery. Edited February 22 by Offshoot 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sojourner Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Surprisingly good article in WaPo today… What the Pentagon has learned from two years of war in Ukraine With hundreds of thousands dead or wounded and still no end in sight, the conflict has revealed that U.S. battlefield calculations must evolve https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/02/22/ukraine-war-pentagon-lessons-learned/ Pretty much the same conclusions as reached here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 ISW's longer analysis report yesterday was not particularly encouraging: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-winter-spring-2024-offensive-operation-kharkiv-luhansk-axis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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