How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

The downside for Putin is when you make it illegal to do anything without serious consequences, you drive people to do more serious stuff.  Enacting this law also reflects fear on Russia's part.  They wouldn't take this step if they didn't think there was potential for more protests.  We keep wondering just where Russia's breaking point is.  This seems to indicate Putin is also concerned about that.

 

Quote

 

Quote of the Day: November 14: "What's the Penalty for Being Late?" "Death." "What's the Penalty for Treason?" "Death." "I Have News for You: We're Late."

"The reign of terror imploded almost the moment the First Emperor died. One day in 209 BCE, the story runs, heavy rain prevented two lowly officials from delivering conscripts to a garrison on time. The penalty for lateness was, of course, death. 'As things stand, we face death whether we stay or run away', Sima Qian reports one of them saying, 'while if we were to start a revolt…'"

 

You are sort of agreeing with me, and there is a reason I quote this Chinese joke/story about once a week.

 

[Sojourner]

Ten to fifteen years in a Russian gulag, yeah big deal. Navalny was sentenced to an additional 19 years in a "special regime" colony last August, he got out in less than 7 months.

[Grigb]

8 hours ago, panzermartin said:

But the Ukrainians can? 

UKR are losing a lot less.

[Grigb]

Agent Murz published a new post. The most interesting is the number of losses that is being discussed in RU Nats TG channels.  

Quote

You 're laughing . And precisely over what makes me feel so f*cked up. Over the fact that Syrsky skillfully pulled out of the "pocket" in Avdiivka, which was "taken for a long time and with difficulty," even that small part of the Ukrainian troops that could still be "smashed" there...

It sucks for me because they told me the numbers a couple of hours ago, which I will take out of the comments from the Philologist...

Since October.
From Nevelsky to Novoselovka.
16 thousand unreturnable losses on our part.
And about 300 knocked-out armored vehicles.
[end quote from the source]...

And the enemy, having conducted a defensive battle and suffered, in the best case (for us), unreturnable losses of 5-7 thousand during the same time (this is my approximate estimate, and not known data), says "Goodbye!" and leaves to new, pre-prepared positions.

Unreturnable 16 000 are KIA, MIA (mostly dead as well), and gravely wounded (had to be medically discharged). That gives as plus around 32,000 wounded and total losses around 48,000.

[chrisl]

9 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

this is an escalation by the Russians but all the coverage does a lousy job of pointing out that this is not a technical breakthrough of some sort. It is just just a violation of a fifty year old treaty. The treaty is fifty years old because the technology to do it has been around for at least that long. The U.S. should be very clear that the first two things we will do if the Russian were set actually set thing off is kill every Russian soldier in Ukraine, and their entire surface navy.

I'm sure there are Russians who want to talk about doing that, but China has a substantial amount of stuff in space that would be just as thoroughly effed as the US stuff, if not more so.  Which would leave Iran as Putin's remaining friend, and maybe North Korea.

And separate from that, unless they're going to make it go "bang" right away, it's not *that* hard to render a satellite inoperable, push it into a higher orbit, or bring it into the Pacific without making a big mess of LEO.  What are they going to do?  Lodge a public complaint that someone moved their nuke from the orbit they parked it in?  

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, panzermartin said:

I get a feeling that whatever territory is being taken by Russia at this stage of the war, will remain to russia for a long time.

Putting aside your assumption that Russia's resources are unlimited and Ukraine's are about to run out...

Of course Ukraine isn't going to take back all of its stolen territory.  This has been true since this stupid war started.  Those who pictured Ukrainian troops driving through active Russian forces to Kerch and retaking Luhansk and Donetsk from the "rebels" were either smoking something strong or made the mistake of mixing alcohol with prescription medications.  It was never realistic.

The only realistic way for Ukraine to get back the pre-2022 stolen territories is if Russia collapses into civil war.  And even then, I'm not so sure Ukraine will either want to or be able to take all of it back.

So what about the remaining post-2022 territory lost?  It was always difficult to see how anything significant would be retaken without an operational collapse (or near enough to one), such as happened in the Kharkiv and Kherson counter-offensives.  And even then without a strategic collapse (i.e. Russia imploding into civil war) the gains would still be limited.  The best realistic case scenario for the Summer 2023 counter-offensive was down to Melitopol and some of the Black Sea coast.  It was never marching into Crimea, taking back Mariupol, or any other such wishful thinking.  Unfortunately, not even that happened.

So yeah, Russia is getting Avdiivka and they will likely keep it.  Big deal.  It's a tiny patch of land that is utterly destroyed and nobody living there.  It's only value to Ukraine is part of a larger return of DPR territory to its control.  And that's not going to happen until Russia collapses.

Since this has been the reality for most of the war, I don't see any significance to it we haven't already debated 1000 times since the war started.

Steve

[panzermartin]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The only realistic way for Ukraine to get back the pre-2022 stolen territories is if Russia collapses into civil war.  And even then, I'm not so sure Ukraine will either want to or be able to take all of it back.

And yet how realistic that civil war scenario still is? I can see Russians in social media reacting but (obviously) in an indirect way (metaphors, black profile pictures) since the war started and now with Navalnys death but we can't see a concrete opposition forming. 

Navalny, who was the big hope when alive, didn't have much impact on Russian public, we are taking about less than 10%.

The last big crack with Wagners mutiny ended within 24h and I still can't understand what happened. 

So looks like Russia is past its big crises, the big defeats in the start etc , and looks like forming a homogeny politically/militarily entirely focused to win the war no matter the cost. 

This can go on until the last memories of glorious Soviet union and the great patriotic war fade away, along with Putin and Co. 

I rather expect a slow transition of Russia to younger generations of less autocratic leaders, within the same system, that will one day bring the first signs of peace and interaction between West and East. That the system will die slowly and not in a sudden way. 

But until then I think we will see more (slow) advances of the russian army and more integration of ukrainian land. 

 

 

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

UKR are losing a lot less.

Can we find accurate reliable numbers anymore? I doubt. This could be true in earlier stages but since the summer offensive Ukrainians are losing a lot too. 

Gliding bombs, drones etc have inflicted big damage to their forces, which repeatedly are being cut off in big cauldrons and get hammered until very last minute withdrawal. 

Another hint is that we don't see any mass mobilization from Russia this time yet Ukraine seems rather eager to gather personnel even asking/forcing people to return from abroad. 

Lastly, they keep losing ground every day. Even the little gains of summer offensive in Zaporizhia front. There are also no signs of any new Ukrainian offensive plan, unless it's being prepared in complete darkness for maximum surprise. But it's very unlikely. 

[Carolus]

17 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Another hint is that we don't see any mass mobilization from Russia this time yet Ukraine seems rather eager to gather personnel even asking/forcing people to return from abroad. 

We don't see "mass mobilisation" in Russia because the political system is fragile and they are afraid that pushing too hard could make the whole thing topple down. Despite the rethorics of fighting the entirety of NATO in Ukraine at the moment (which makes me wonder what the regime will say when they actually pick a fight with NATO).

Besides, 20.000 men per month is not a significant mobilisation for you?

We are watching a war that is being fought with the utmost brutality and determination yet at the same time is being "cooked on a small flame" by political leadership in order to keep the civil economy from being affected as much as possible.

Same is true for Ukraine's supporters. It's a localised conventional war and a global hybrid war that is supposed to not get noticed and cost less than a COINS operation for the West - where most people refuse to even acknowledge that they are under attack.

So I don't think that not seeing mass mobilisation is a positive hint for Russia. I think it is very characteristic for this war.

Imagine if the USA had to draft 20.000 men per month for 20 months, and it has almost triple the population of Russia. It would be considered a scandal. In Russia less so, yet still they rely on Africans, Arabs and Asians to bolster that number and keep the war as much under the radar for the average Russian as possible.

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[Kraft]

Navalny could've been the spark that ignites the powder keg, had it existed.

Reality: a handful of women and dainty men getting dragged away by 100kg police troopers in riot gear. No mass protests. No escalating violence.

Meanwhile, the russians at the front living among piles of uncollected, rotting orc corpses rather die fighting to the last man or kill themselfs or their captors with grenades before surrendering. 

 

41 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

There are also no signs of any new Ukrainian offensive plan, unless it's being prepared in complete darkness for maximum surprise. But it's very unlikely. 

I agree that 2024 will be a year of giving ground and attempting to hold the line BUT the future development beyond that hinges on the US election and Europes ability to scale its production up.

If Biden wins and the reps decide to bail on their designated loser, support could turn the tide.

If Biden loses, Europe may still be able to catch up. The politicians seem to have understood it'll be their people next at last.

Edited February 18 by Kraft

[Rokko]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Agent Murz published a new post. The most interesting is the number of losses that is being discussed in RU Nats TG channels.  

Unreturnable 16 000 are KIA, MIA (mostly dead as well), and gravely wounded (had to be medically discharged). That gives as plus around 32,000 wounded and total losses around 48,000.

As a ballpark estimate this seems not totally unreasonable. But its been 19 weeks, which would mean they suffered an average of ~2500 casualties per week. Thinking back to the estimates I made a couple days back this seems a little too low, when compared to previous timeframes of comparable intensity. Particularly, at least for 10/23, their losses were probably a good 1/3 higher than that.

[panzermartin]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Agent Murz published a new post. The most interesting is the number of losses that is being discussed in RU Nats TG channels.  

Unreturnable 16 000 are KIA, MIA (mostly dead as well), and gravely wounded (had to be medically discharged). That gives as plus around 32,000 wounded and total losses around 48,000.

OK just saw these numbers. Yes RU are losing a lot but still seems within the 1:3 defender /attacker ratio, is this correct? 

[hcrof]

16 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

OK just saw these numbers. Yes RU are losing a lot but still seems within the 1:3 defender /attacker ratio, is this correct? 

1:3 is the numbers/combat power required for a successful attack. It is not supposed to be the expected casualties. 

[JonS]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

UKR are losing a lot less.

Given the vastly different population sizes, UKR has to *average* better than 5:1 loss ratios to avoid falling behind.

(All else being equal, which it never is. However, 5:1 still provides a sense of the scale of the problem. Losing 'only' 60% of the Russian cas around Avdivka is great, but it's also not good enough.)

Edited February 18 by JonS

[Bulletpoint]

57 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Michael Clarke is a popular military expert who is often interviewed on TV.

If he squinted a bit, he might read the small letters on the image of the press conference, which was held in January 2023. The news he is commenting on is a year old.

[omae2]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

And yet how realistic that civil war scenario still is? I can see Russians in social media reacting but (obviously) in an indirect way (metaphors, black profile pictures) since the war started and now with Navalnys death but we can't see a concrete opposition forming. 

Navalny, who was the big hope when alive, didn't have much impact on Russian public, we are taking about less than 10%.

The last big crack with Wagners mutiny ended within 24h and I still can't understand what happened. 

So looks like Russia is past its big crises, the big defeats in the start etc , and looks like forming a homogeny politically/militarily entirely focused to win the war no matter the cost. 

This can go on until the last memories of glorious Soviet union and the great patriotic war fade away, along with Putin and Co. 

I rather expect a slow transition of Russia to younger generations of less autocratic leaders, within the same system, that will one day bring the first signs of peace and interaction between West and East. That the system will die slowly and not in a sudden way. 

But until then I think we will see more (slow) advances of the russian army and more integration of ukrainian land. 

 

 

The point of this war from our perspective should be not simply defeating the russians in Ukraine but to bleed them dry and make it an example of why not to get in to this kinda position in the first place.
Russians will not riot on the streets or start a civil war, the majority of the population is powerless even if they want to do something. But the russian system is not effective and don't have infinite resources. They refurbishing old vehicles but after they run dry then they not gonna be able to supply as much as the fighting force need for assaults. Ukraine should wage a defensive war and cause as much damage as possible. That's their only chance.

If Ukraine would throw the towel now the russians would be able to reorganize and than start again with a better suited army for job. This why russian propaganda machine is so keen on peace deals. They want to win time, these type of losses are not sustainable unless you're in war for your existence. Peoples of russia are don't want to die for Ukraine, this is why there is no mass mobilization but volunteers whom are usually have some major issues. Average peoples with no issue would not want to go to Ukraine just to end up with torn leg so they have to throw a grenade in to their vest.

 

So the real breaking point will came when the volunteers will dry up and the russian elite will do another round of mobilization. Probably after the election. Than that force must be bleed out. If the russians will see that they have two chances, dying in Ukraine or using the weapons to change the system than things will change.

Younger generation doesn't matter. They will not change the system that is not meant for them to change. They will be suppressed just like their parents with different methods. Fear is the key for the russian society, its fear that make them so easily controllable so i guess this is what needed to have change in their system.

What the west need to do is not to be gullible to russian psyops. We need to give means to ukraine to destroy russian forces. We need to be united on our goal to defeat russia and make a change in their system. Otherwise thing will look pretty grim in this decade and the next.

[Carolus]

https://www.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/auf-sicherheitskonferenz-erklaert-rheinmetall-will-munition-direkt-in-der-ukraine-produzieren_id_259679723.html

 

Rheinmetall and Ukrainian secretary Kamyschin have signed a letter of intent to build an artillery munitions factory for up to 1 million shells per year in Ukraine under Rheinmetall management.

Since this is just an LoI, it will take unfortunately years to realise.

But what I find interesting is this: Western companies are ready to enter long-term economic agreements with Ukraine and commit to long-term planning with the Ukrainian government.

That is not the behaviour of an industry which expects a Ukrainian collapse.

This is supposed to enable Ukrainian defense - and offense - for years to come.

[Kraft]

Some good news, the 1 million drones program is already underway

Quote

Drones "from Zelenskyi" exist.

On Tuesday there will be a live broadcast with a fighter who uses them.

According to him, the use of FPV in their direction has increased 4 times thanks to this program.

 

[Carolus]

The attorney general in Germany has announced the beginning of investigations into a partner of the North Stream 2 pipeline project for handing over documents with sensitive NATO information to Russia.

There is no charge yet, but the suspected crime is treason.

I find it quite astonishing: There have been maybe 2 or 3 court cases of treason in Germany since 1949. Now there are 3 or 4 ongoing cases and investigations related to Russia over the last 2 years.

It took the Ukraine War to shake the tree, as tragic as that sounds.

Edited February 18 by Carolus

[Kraft]

Also some very much russian news

Quote

Katsaps shot 6 captured Ukrainian soldiers at the Museum position (on Zenith)

 

  The brothers recognized the fighters from the video, which was recently shared by Muscovites on the Internet. On the footage, shot bodies are lying in the premises of Garage No. 1 .

 

The museum was located on the territory of the former Zenit military base. Due to the fact that the positions were surrounded for several days, everyone who was on foot had to fight their way to the main forces. Unfortunately, there were 4 non-walking boys (wounded) and 2 more walking ones who had no chance to make their way without evacuation.

 

Let's briefly reproduce the chronology of those events.

 

Having broken through to Tsarska Okhota through a pipe , the enemy then used another exit 1,500 meters above the Zenith. And accordingly, he began to establish himself there. Katsap continued the pressure from Opytny, moving towards their fellow freaks there. United, they formed the entourage of Zenit.

 

For a long time, no decision was made to leave, until 13.02 BC and water supplies began to run out. There was an unsuccessful attempt to unblock just the fighters, who were then shot. Already understanding the tragedy and the futility of defense, the command was given to break through the battle in small groups. An unpleasant incident happened here, which was already described by another fighter on Instagram , when the commander said about the wounded "Throw them to the ground and burn everything." The trouble is that it was the wounded fighter who heard it.

 

On February 14, small groups started leaving, and the wounded were promised evacuation, which was to arrive on February 15. One of the surviving fighters remained with 5 wounded. Another Panda fighter will write before his death: " I don't care what will happen to me, but the guys are sorry ." The next day, approximately from 12 o'clock, the Katsaps came to the position, and already at 4:02 PM, footage of the shot soldiers appeared in the Katsap media.

 

Most likely, the boys were shot immediately on February 15. Another one of the fighters managed to write before his death " no bread, no meat, and half a bottle of water left ." In the footage with the bodies, one of the soldiers remained holding that bottle after death.

 

A series of mistakes and procrastination with decisive action led to such a tragedy. And the enemy once again proved that he does not care about all the rules of war.

 

Edited February 18 by Kraft

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Given the vastly different population sizes, UKR has to *average* better than 5:1 loss ratios to avoid falling behind.

(All else being equal, which it never is. However, 5:1 still provides a sense of the scale of the problem. Losing 'only' 60% of the Russian cas around Avdivka is great, but it's also not good enough.)

Good enough for what?  For the entire Russian population to die before the last Ukrainian?  This not really how attrition math works, let alone corrosive math(s).  

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Can we find accurate reliable numbers anymore? I doubt.

I posted recently here information about "Memory Book" initiative, existing since 2014. In November 2023 according to their information from social and official media monitoring, they had about 33000 names of KIA, about 15 000 MIA (by their assumption 60% of them can be dead, rest can be captives), about 3500 are POWs According to later information for January 2024 we have about 6400 POWs - this can be both new captives since November and persons, who recently considered as MIA)

 

PS. Forget about classical 1:3 ratio. In this war this doesn't work in most cases. 

Edited February 18 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Russian telegrammer Fighterbomber denies they lost 3 planes:
https://t.me/fighter_bomber/15737
 

UKR Air Command issued the data of Cospas - SarSat - international satellite system for search&resque, where can be seen four radiobeacons in the allegedle palces of pilots ejecting in that day. The more western mark obviously belonged to Su-35 - Russians recognized it was lost near Shakhtarsk. Pilot was resqued. 

Other two marks are in Diakove (UKR) and south from Millerovo (RUS). Looks like damaged Su-34 tried to make emergence landing on Millerovo airfield, but fell down and only one pilot could eject. 

Second Su-34 with mark near Diakove was allegedly filmed falling down in flame by the settlers of Diakove. Interesting - women, who are filming, speak Ukrainian or mixed RUS-UKR (so-called "surzhyk"). They say the jet feel down directly on the village street.

 

Edited February 18 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Yesterday broad attack was repulsed in Zaporizhia direction- broadly Robotyne area. AFU informed about 18 vehicles destroyed, 70 KIA and 80 wia (probably slightly inflated). Katsaps are trying to probe the line or draw defenders attention.