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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

I believe you are misremembering. Ron Weasley had a hand-me-down familiar that was a rat named Scabbers. It turned out that was a wizard named Pettigrew who gave the location of Harry Potter’s parents to Voldemort who killed them.

No, Kraft had it right. He said that rat of Ron's , not that rat Ron. I made the same mistake myself at first.

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48 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

There's more than a little theatre going on here

A bit TOO MUCH theater for even a charade of a commitment to the oath they took to serve. Consider that just about half of the country voted for the Party in charge now - by a *5*seat majority out of *435* seats. And, half the country voted for the other Party. But the Speaker insists as per the (made up)  “Hastert Rule”, that only bills that will pass with *only* Republican votes will be brought to the Floor for a vote. Although both parties in the House indulge in this defiance of the full nation’s voters, only this Party enshrines the practice as a Rule. 

All students of the USA political system must remember this: No legislation is enacted without passing both the Senate and the House. So these 5 seats, out of the entire 435, control the entire federal legislative functioning of the United States of America. 5 individuals, no matter how wacko they maybe. And they are. That is, unless the Speaker acts as Speaker of the entire House, which formally he is. And his Party can boot him out if he does, like they did to his predecessor. Takes some guts to do the right thing…

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I think we both agree that far too many politicians have and continue to put their own ambition and status above the good of the country. I strongly suspect a strong streak of vanity and desire for power are necessary qualities one needs to enter into politics.

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2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

It's official.

 

The withdrawal must have been well underway, even to the point of being mostly complete, prior to this announcement.  It's the only reason I can think of for there to be an announcement like this.

Ironic that critics of Syrskyi try to paint him as a brainless general who cares about prestige instead of the lives of his men, and then just a week after taking command he withdraws from one of the bloodiest battles Ukraine has ever fought.

As I suspected, the characterizations of Syrskyi by some appears to be off the mark.

Steve

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45 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We were doing so well with calming down on the US politics stuff, then how quickly it changed.

We have Avdiivka and other things that should be occupying our attention more than rehashing the obvious problems with the US political system (generally and ESPECIALLY at the moment).

Steve

And This why we can't have nice things. 

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Pentagon: Deliveries of some equipment to Ukraine continue in accordance with previously concluded contracts
https://www.holosameryky.com/a/pentagon-zbroja/7490055.html

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Despite the absence of a congressional decision on additional funding for Ukraine, the production and some deliveries of military equipment and ammunition to Ukraine continue in accordance with previously concluded contracts. The Ukrainian service of the Voice of America was informed about this in the Pentagon.

This includes artillery shells, missiles for HIMARS, air defense capabilities and other military equipment. However, in order to provide new aid to Ukraine, the Pentagon needs additional funding from Congress.

The last package of weapons for Ukraine was announced on December 27 last year. However, the US Department of Defense can fulfill some of its previous obligations to Kyiv thanks to already existing contracts under the USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) program, for which funding was allocated even earlier.

Unlike the Presidential Authorization Program (PDA), which allows the United States to quickly supply weapons to Ukraine directly from its own warehouses, USAI involves ordering equipment from manufacturers. This program was used to support the Armed Forces in the long term. However, currently all funding for it has been exhausted, and there are no funds left for new purchases in the Pentagon until they are approved by Congress.

According to Defense Department spokesman Jeff Jurgensen, each USAI contract has a specific performance period, production and delivery dates.

For security reasons, the Pentagon did not provide more precise information about the amount of equipment or specific terms of their delivery to Ukraine.

Artillery shells have become one of the most urgent needs of the Armed Forces in recent months. Kyiv has repeatedly warned about the shortage of critical ammunition. The American government also recognizes this.

On February 15, White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby stated that there is a risk that Avdiyivka could fall under Russian control. "To a large extent, this is due to the fact that the Ukrainian military is running out of artillery shells in the field," Kirby said during a White House briefing. additional funding, we cannot provide Ukraine with the artillery shells it desperately needs to repel these Russian attacks."

Currently, the US produces approximately 28,000 155-mm shells per month, and by the end of 2024, they plan to increase production to 70,000-80,000 per month, Pentagon spokesman Jeff Jurgensen told Voice of America. According to him, USAI funding also helps in the production of such projectiles.

At the same time, Jurgensen noted that Congress has not yet approved the administration's request for additional funding. Such uncertainty has "devastating consequences" for the Defense Department, including the ability to provide aid to Ukraine and other US allies and partners, according to a Pentagon spokesman.

"For example, without additional funding, we cannot achieve our goal of producing 100,000 155-mm shells per month. It also limits the ability of the US Department of Defense to fulfill planned multi-year procurement contracts, including missiles for the Stinger, Javelin and PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot systems," said Jeff Jurgensen.

Earlier this week, the US Senate approved a $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. However, it appears that the bill may face difficulties in the US House of Representatives, where the Republicans hold a majority.

 

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8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The withdrawal must have been well underway, even to the point of being mostly complete, prior to this announcement.  It's the only reason I can think of for there to be an announcement like this.

Ironic that critics of Syrskyi try to paint him as a brainless general who cares about prestige instead of the lives of his men, and then just a week after taking command he withdraws from one of the bloodiest battles Ukraine has ever fought.

As I suspected, the characterizations of Syrskyi by some appears to be off the mark.

Steve

I think the thing we tend to forget is that getting “tied down” cuts both ways.  The RA has been pretty much entirely focused on this one little town for months.  There have been a few sporadic attacks elsewhere but this has been the main show.  This means that the UA has also had time to dig in, mine and rest and refit elsewhere.  So while the RA has been breaking a division on one small town, the UA has bought time and space.

Next question…what can they do with that?

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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I think the thing we tend to forget is that getting “tied down” cuts both ways.  The RA has been pretty much entirely focused on this one little town for months.  There have been a few sporadic attacks elsewhere but this has been the main show.  This means that the UA has also had time to dig in, mine and rest and refit elsewhere.  So while the RA has been breaking a division on one small town, the UA has bought time and space.

Next question…what can they do with that?

Yeah, we shall see.

 

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4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Yeah, we shall see.

 

If Ukrainian will collapses over this one small town, in a slow motion attack that has taken 4 months to culminate, then we are backing the wrong horse in this whole thing.  The US and West cannot supply the Will to Fight - that is all on the Ukrainians.  They have shown incredible resilience for two years and I personally doubt this will break them.  But if it does, or there are serious signs of it collapsing, then stopping aid starts to make sense because it would likely simply fall into the hands of the Russian's.  If the Ukraine are the Government of Afghanistan then it won't matter how much aid we end up sending them, this war is already lost - of course this the narrative being pushed in some camps.

I think that like Bakhmut and Severodontesk, the UA will re-set, new lines will be drawn and the RA will kill itself trying to take the next smallville in the Ukrainian countryside.  My money is that the RA will run out of gas before Ukraine runs out of small towns.

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Ok, so Avdiivka is over, even Coke plant was abandoned by 3rd Brigade. Probably a right decision, it was a mighty position but vulnerable to being cut off.

Interesting post by one of foreign fighters, even if some numbers seem dubious. Also don't forget to open translation of another post by (supposedly, but be aware it may be psyops) Russian colonel  and read his view about their losses, translated by Dmitri.

Next object of Russian attack- Robotyne bulge?

Edited by Beleg85
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13 hours ago, sburke said:

It has to be brought to a vote first though.   I think it is time for another "How does our gov't work" primer from @billbindc

 

Indeed it is. 

A discharge petition is a time consuming process which doesn't start until 218 members physically sign on and actually several votes happen over a couple of weeks so they are hard to sustain because the timing means that leadership has ample opportunity to bear down on the members. In the case of the Israel/Taiwan/Ukraine bill you also won't have perfect unity from Democrats. Several, at least, will object to aid to Israel. So you will need perhaps 6 or 7 Republicans to sustain their position for about 10 days. 

It's worked once that I know of.

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Russian telegrammer Fighterbomber denies they lost 3 planes:
https://t.me/fighter_bomber/15737
 

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The Su-34s are all at home and operating normally. No losses.
It’s unclear about the Su-35. They're sorting it out.

All pilots are at home. Alive and healthy.

Z.Y. We sorted out the 35m. Nothing new. Everything is as usual. There is something unshakable in this world. Unfortunately.😏
Oh, well, crests are pizdobols. This is also unshakable.

While I think this one is implying they probably shot down the Su-35 themselves:
https://t.me/romanov_92/44316
 

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02/17/2024

Information verified:

- about two Su-34s - p#dezh;
- Once again the Su-35 was not shot down by the enemy (as in general about 70% of all time). The pilot is alive.

@romanov_92
t.me/romanov_92/44316

 

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