How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, hcrof said:

Most things people consider AI right now, from self driving cars to chatGPT is almost as hard to understand as giving someone a brain scan to ask why they like the colour pink. The code is simpler than you would think, but the "thought process" is almost totally opaque. A major area of AI research right now is trying to get it to explain why it did stuff in a way we understand 

Most modern technology (computers, factories and otherwise) is beyond most people. I would submit that basic algebra, physics, etc. are also beyond 90% of the population. A decent amount of the population could figure how to bang some rocks together, if it came down to that.

[Kinophile]

23 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Add in one further caveat...any society must by definition pick relative winners and losers in resource allocation, rights, etc even in the most benign scenario possible. The politics of that by definition end up in a Butlerian Jihad every time.

As Banks noted - Money Implies Poverty. 

Poverty Implies Violence. 

 

 

 

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

As Banks noted - Money Implies Poverty. 

Poverty Implies Violence. 

 

 

 

Banks gone way too soon. Had absolutely stellar opinions on uisce na beatha too. 

[OBJ]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Banks gone way too soon. Had absolutely stellar opinions on uisce na beatha too. 

Well...he was Scotch..tish  

[The_Capt]

Are we the biggest bunch of nerds or what?

[OBJ]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

It is from Harari (I think).  I argue that warfare (and economies) might be a 3rd level chaotic system - a system that reacts to imagined predictions about it.  This in essence is the human ability to remember the future in a meta-awareness way.  Another spin is the human ability to hold two diametrically opposed concepts in tension as "true." - e.g. God loves us, but made hell etc.

If you're referring to Yuval Noah Harari, I've read three of his works and thoroughly enjoyed all three, definitely a world class thinker and prognosticator. Highly recommended for those with an interest in such things, has the genius of presenting complex ideas in understandable ways.

https://www.amazon.com/Sapiens-Humankind-Yuval-Noah-Harari/dp/0062316095

https://www.amazon.com/Homo-Deus-Brief-History-Tomorrow/dp/0062464310

https://www.amazon.com/Lessons-21st-Century-Yuval-Harari/dp/0525512179

"In the book Sapiens, Yuval Noah Harari talks about two types of chaotic systems: Level 1 = does not react to predictions about it, e.g. the weather. Level 2 = reacts to predictions about it, e.g. markets, politics."

As I recall his two big worries were/are biotech and AI.

[OBJ]

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Are we the biggest bunch of nerds or what?

'fraid so, 'if not us, then who?'

[Fenris]

Wasn't there another Asimov story about the world being managed by AI, everything had been going great but then things started going wrong in a big way, famine etc. The main character investigates and discovers it's corrupt humans feeding incorrect data to the AI that's the problem. Might have been one of the Robot short stories, this human computer can't remember.

[Vacillator]

Seems like I clicked on the wrong thread .  Interesting nevertheless...

Edited February 2 by Vacillator

[zinz]

https://v.redd.it/ud6kcx0m8tfc1/DASH_720.mp4?source=fallback

(Ai) image recognition in a lancet prefers hole in a wall more than ifv next to it. 

To add some Ukraine context 

[chris talpas]

12 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And we are back to human irrationality.  You are correct, we would rather cling to the chaos and uncertainty of "freedom."  If an AI economy could guarantee an end to poverty and unpredictable recessions/depressions, completely predictable growth and wealth distribution that made sure we never saw class friction (we are basically talking Star Trek) - I have zero doubt we would march in the street to reject it completely...now that is irrational (or perhaps relatively rational is a better term)

We are such an odd species.  Uncertainty can become a certainty we cling onto and will fight for.  But here is the thing...no one out there is crying for "electricity freedom!!".  We have already shifted enormous level infrastructure management to autonomous AI - you know, the stuff that really freakin matters?  So we are comfortable with that, but "God help you if you touch my money". 

It is a miracle we made it this far.... 

Isn’t a sizeable amount of trading in the market driven by AI trading algorithms?
 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, chris talpas said:

Isn’t a sizeable amount of trading in the market driven by AI trading algorithms?
 

Yes, and even over a decade ago things like this happened...

Quote

 

https://dougseven.com/2014/04/17/knightmare-a-devops-cautionary-tale/

This is the story of how a company with nearly $400 million in assets went bankrupt in 45-minutes because of a failed deployment.

 

Nobody watns to be the goat in a military version of that disaster. The problem at the moment is figuring out whether your force is more at risk due to moving to slowly to hand stuff over to AI, or to quickly. The seems to be ever more from being wrong in either direction.

Edited February 3 by dan/california

[chris talpas]

9 hours ago, Tux said:

I just mean the code (not to diminish how complicated that is), not step-by-step following the rationale behind each actual decision it has made.  But point well taken - emergent AI may be emerging as we speak.

It isn’t code in the classical sense.  You have the mathematical construct of a neuron which you code for and then have a vast interconnected web of these.  You then train it where the strength of those interconnections is adjusted during training.  It is analogous to our own brain where as we learn certain neural pathways are strengthened while others are pared away. It is almost a black box.

The rate of improvement in AI both in narrow and broad applications is nothing short of astounding.  I just worry the we are racing to develop the tools of our own demise with autonomous kill drones coupled with LLM AI that are becoming increasingly capable and  closer to sentience.  
I would rather hope for Kurzweil symbiosis instead.

[CAZmaj]

The Fearsome Tanks That Fought Saddam Hussein May Soon Come for Vladimir Putin

A report on Balkan media claims that Kuwait may have begun transferring some or all of the 149 M-84AB tanks it purchased from the former Yugoslavia back to the Croatian Djuro Djakovic factory where they were first assembled in the 1980s. There, they’ll supposedly receive refurbishing—and possibly upgrades—before going to battle against Russian forces invading Ukraine.

Reports of the arrangement appeared in Serbian media, and six of the tan-colored Kuwaiti M-84ABs have reportedly been seen transported on trailer trucks through Slovenia to Croatia. However, the alleged transfer has not been confirmed by the involved parties.

It is also reported that 6 M-84/T-72 tanks were spotted at the Barje transfer point in the Slovenian city of Ljubljana about 4 days ago.

It is worth noting the desert camouflage of the tank, which most likely alludes to Kuwait, which, according to recent rumors, was supposed… pic.twitter.com/e8HAxrfTtp

— Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) January 30, 2024

If the report is accurate, that will be these tanks’ second war to liberate territory from an invading army bent on conquest. In 1991, they were used by exiled Kuwaiti troops to help liberate their country from Iraqi occupation.

The M-84 was Yugoslavia’s license-built take on the Soviet Union’s mainstay T-72 tank. That means it would be relatively easy for Ukraine to integrate into service, as it already operates many different T-72 variants.

A major M-84 transfer could be a shot in the arm for Ukraine’s forces, as deliveries of Western tanks slow down entering the third year of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Furthermore, Kuwait’s M-84AB variant boasts a significantly more powerful engine, tougher armor, and a superior fire control system as compared to early T-72s.

Ironically, in the mid-2010s, Kuwait planned to replace the M-84s (70 of which remained in active units, with the remainder in storage) with new Russian T-90MS tanks. But in 2019, Kuwait “indefinitely postponed” the purchase. For now, Kuwait’s 218 M1A2 Abrams tanks can hold the line, should it sell off the M-84s.

Supposedly, Croatia’s upgrading and donation of the Kuwaiti M-84s will be paid back in kind by Germany, which may transfer 24 Panzer 87 tanks (newly purchased from Switzerland) to Croatia.

Croatia’s Air Force, meanwhile, has also reportedly transferred two Antonov An-32 light cargo planes to Ukraine, which have been in storage at Zagreb’s airport since 2014.

One of two Croatian Air Force An-32Bs acquired in 1995 landing in Prague in 2006. Used to transport humanitarian aid, paratroopers and peacekeeping forces, both were grounded in Zagreb in 2014 due to funding shortfalls, leaving Croatia reliant on NATO partners for air transport. These two aircraft have now reportedly been given to Ukraine.Alan Lebeda (GNU FDL v1.2) - Wikimedia CommonsMore
Ukraine’s State Emergency Service was known to operate at least three An-32s. These have likely been busily ferrying aid to Ukraine—and, on one occasion, Turkey, which required earthquake aid in February of 2023. Ukraine will definitely find uses for more of these machines.

Early in the Cold War, neutral Yugoslavia imported hundreds of Sherman, M47 Patton, T-34/85, and T-55 tanks from both sides of the Iron Curtain. But by the 1970s, Belgrade wanted modern tanks that it could manufacture domestically.

During a 1978 visit to Moscow, Yugoslav President Josip Broz Tito convinced Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev to sell a license that would allow for the manufacture of the latest Soviet mass-production tank—the T-72—for $39 million. But the legal permissions and schematics still left a lot of legwork for the Yugoslavians to figure out, with their smaller industrial sector.

Ultimately, over 250 companies spread across the Yugoslav Republic contributed components, with final assembly taking place at the Djuro Djakovic factory in Slavonski Brod, Croatia. A prototype T-72MJ vehicle completed in 1983 was followed by 10 pre-production vehicles and mass-production in 1985.

The first series of 370 M-84 tanks had most of the same basic characteristics as the T-72M export tank: a low-profile (2.18 meters high) tank with a three-man crew, a 760-horsepower V46-6 diesel engine, and a powerful (if not especially accurate) 2A46 125-millimeter gun fed by a rotating carousel-style autoloader with 20 rounds and 22 more spares in the crew compartment. All of this was backed up by coaxial and turret-top machine guns, and a 12-shot smoke grenade discharger. While the M-84’s hull used composite materials for enhanced protection, its turret was pure cast steel.

Serbian M-84A tank during the 2020 exercise in Pešter in October 2020. Note the thermal jacket on the 2A46 gun, and the top-turret 12.7-millimeter heavy machine gun, use of which proved unpopular in Balkan wars due to need for the tank commander to expose himself to enemy fire while operating.Srdjan Popovic
However, the M-84 differed from the original in one critical regard: its superior indigenously developed sensor and fire control system. The gunner’s DNNS-2 sight had a 7x day magnification and 8.5x magnification night vision, and the commander had an independent night sight that could also engage the main gun. The M-84’s fire control computer, meanwhile, was rife with features for its time: a meteorological sensor to account for windspeed and humidity, and computers designed to account for both the movement of the tank and its target.

Adjustments to the improved M-84A model, however, reduced the parts shared with the T-72 to just 40 percent. Protection was significantly enhanced, thanks to the addition of layers of spaced steel and textolite spaced armor, with quartz sand filling the gap between them. That increased the effectiveness of the front armor from the original 380 to 450 millimeters (the higher figure represents defense against shaped charge warheads) to over 700 millimeters RHA equivalent in places. RHA stands for “Rolled Homogenous Armor steel,” and its an effective or equivalent measure of thickness, rather than a literal one.

A more powerful 1,000-horsepower V46-TK engine was also swapped in, bumping maximum speed up from 37 to 45 miles per hour.

Kuwait’s Army was intrigued by the M-84A, and pitted one against an American M1A1 Abrams in desert trials. The Abram’s fuel system broke down, leaving Yugoslavia to win the contract for 200 tanks (including 15 recovery tanks and 15 command tanks) at $1.58 million apiece. Kuwait’s customized M-84ABs had 200 small changes, including different radios, an added searchlight, desert adaptations, and an auxiliary power unit fitted to the M-84ABK command tanks.

Depending on how you look at, the Kuwaiti order was either tragically or fortunately too late. Only a handful of M-84As had arrived when Iraq invaded and overran Kuwait in two days, and subsequently paraded the captured factory-fresh tanks.

However, Kuwaiti troops in exile continued to receive dozens of the remaining M-84s. These equipped Kuwait’s 35th Shahid (“Martyrs”) Brigade, which famously held the line against Iraqi tanks in the Battle of the Bridges before withdrawing over the Saudi border. The 35th’s soldiers were trained to operate M-84s by U.S. special forces, as well as Yugoslavian trainers, and fought alongside the U.S. and Saudi troops that liberated Kuwait in the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Two tanks were knocked out, but later repaired. Due to fears they’d be mistaken for Iraqi T-72s, these M-84ABs had three white stripes painted on their side armor as an identification measure, and were employed conservatively.

Kuwait Army M-84AB tank advances down a lane cleared of mines during Operation Desert Storm on March 1, 1991.Staff Sgt. Dean M. Fox/U.S. Army - Wikimedia Commons
Just a few months after Kuwait’s liberation, ethnic separatism resulted in the violent dissolution of Yugoslavia—interrupting the Kuwaiti order at 150 tanks delivered. The Yugoslav People's Army (usually abbreviated JNA) had seven brigades with M-84s when the war began: three based in Serbia, and one each in Bosnia, Croatia, Slovenia, and North Macedonia. These were soon snatched up by the separating parties alongside older, more numerous T-34s and T-55s.

JNA M-84s were first deployed in the 10 Day War of June/July, 1991—unsuccessfully attempting to stamp out Slovenian independence. Then, from August to November, JNA M-84s battled Croatian national guardsmen in the brutal, three-month-long urban battle of Vukovar. Though the JNA ultimately prevailed, it lost an estimated 100 tanks to ambushing anti-tank teams and mines. Those included around 20 M-84s, four of which were knocked out in a single ambush on Trpinjska Road. However, entrenched JNA M-84s did defeat a counterattack by Croatian T-55 tanks, knocking out three.

M-84s were also used in the Krajina region by Croatia, and in the Siege of Sarajevo by both Serbian Srpska troops and (in smaller numbers) Bosnian forces. In that theater, with its mountainous terrain, its insufficient gun elevation/depression proved problematic. Chinese HJ-8 anti-tank missiles supplied by Pakistan to Bosnia also proved a threat.

Nonetheless, according to an article by Nikola Isidorovic, the M-84’s front armor was “never penetrated” during the war. Instead, munitions hitting the lower-side armor and mines penetrating the belly armor caused fatal detonations of ammunition stored in the crew compartment, often leading to turret pop-offs—an infamous vulnerability of the T-72 family of tanks. Isidorovic estimates that roughly 40 M-84s were lost by all sides during the five-year civil war, though some proved repairable.

Serbian M-84s latter battled Kosovar separatists from 1998-1999, with nine M-84s lost to the subsequent NATO air campaign. Serbia’s M-84s last saw combat in 2001 in the battle of Oraovice, during the Presevo Valley campaign against Albanian insurgents.

There have been several attempts to market further-upgraded M-84s—most notably, the Croatian M-84D and Serbian M-84AS series, featuring much of the equipment of the Russian T-90A tank (the Shtora active protection system, French Catherine FC thermal sight, and Kontakt explosive reactive armor).

The M-84 Tank and Ukraine
While photographic evidence shows that Russian tank losses outstrip those of Ukraine by a more than 3 to 1 ratio, Russian factories produce several hundred new tanks annually. Presently, Ukraine’s cannot. Thus, sourcing more tanks from abroad is vital to Ukraine—especially those that it can easily integrate into its existing training and maintenance systems. Thus, M-84s from Kuwait—or elsewhere—are undoubtedly of interest to Ukraine and its allies.

Serbia retains roughly 200 M-84s tank in four battalions, and has plans to upgrade at least 40 to the new M-84AS2 model. Meanwhile, Slovenia and Croatia both retain 46 and 74 M-84A4 Snajper (“Sniper”) tanks outfitted with improved Slovenian Omega-84 fire control systems, including improved gun stabilization, better night sights, and new laser range finders. Bosnia and North Macedonia may also have dozens of M-84s in storage.

While Serbia is politically unlikely to export tanks for use against Russia, in 2022, it seemed that Ukraine might obtain some or all Slovenia’s M-84A4s (all but 14 of which are in storage). But that fell through, as Slovenia’s leadership was dissatisfied with the promised compensation from Germany.

That could change now that Germany is acquiring Swiss Panzer 87s (ie. Leopard 2A4s) that it could potentially shuffle over to Slovenia or Croatia to compensate for donated vehicles.

If Kuwait’s M-84s are indeed being overhauled in Croatia prior to delivery in Ukraine, it’s worth considering the extent of that process. On the low end, these efforts may simply involve restoring the tanks to useable condition—particularly as 75 of Kuwait’s tanks are reportedly no longer in service. But on the higher end, it’s possible that the M-84ABs could be refitted with the further enhanced fire control systems that were introduced on the M-84A4 Snajper.

Any M-84s entering Ukrainian service will also surely receive explosive reactive armor (ERA) tiles to improve their survivability against shaped-charge armor-piercing weapons (including nearly all infantry anti-tank weapons).

Overall, the Balkan take on the T-72 is a bit tougher, faster, and far-sighted than the original. And, most importantly, significant numbers may become available in what could prove a difficult year for Ukraine, as American military assistance remains stymied by political machinations in Congress.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/tech/fearsome-tanks-fought-saddam-hussein-195500712.html

[dan/california]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-2-2024

 

Open-source investigations indicate that Russian forces are benefitting from Ukraine’s ammunition shortage and inability to conduct sufficient counterbattery warfare. Ukraine-based open-source organization Frontelligence Insight stated on February 1 that Russian forces previously established stationary artillery firing positions for long periods of time from late 2022 to early 2023 when ammunition shortages limited Ukrainian counterbattery warfare capabilities.[20] Frontelligence stated that Russian forces began to concentrate their artillery in a similar way in January 2024, suggesting that Ukrainian forces are again running low on artillery ammunition. Frontelligence stated that Ukrainian forces can sometimes strike Russian artillery but overall lack adequate ammunition for effective counterbattery fire. Frontelligence stated that the lack of Ukrainian counterbattery fire allows Russian artillery to largely destroy settlements, making it nearly impossible for Ukrainian forces to defend the settlements. Frontelligence stated that many of Ukraine’s FPV drones lack the range to strike the numerous Russian artillery pieces deployed 15 to 24 kilometers from the frontline.

[Battlefront.com]

And thank you CAZmaj and dan/california for getting us back on topic   Let's give the abstract AI stuff a rest, shall we?

This (probable) deal for M-84s likely shows us is there's a Plan B for delayed/scuttled US support.  In this case it appears that Switzerland is OK with sending its Leo2s (Pz87) to Croatia and having Germany pay for it, which gets around Switzerland's stubbornness regarding neutrality. 

The question here is this... did Ukraine come to the conclusion that Leo2s are too difficult to maintain and requested that more Soviet type tanks be transferred instead?  Or is it that there aren't easy sources for Leo2s to send to Ukraine, so this is the best Germany could do?  My money is on Ukraine wanting something more maintainable.

Steve

[MikeyD]

The US delivered 31 M1A1SA Abrams tanks to Ukraine back last October. Reports claim the DU armor was removed and replaced with Tungsten before shipping. The optics are a generation behind current US standards. Abrams are said to be finnicky beasts and you have to constantly keep ahead of the engine air filters or you'll kill the engine. I would say those converted M84s would be 'workhorse' tanks for Ukraine while Abrams are 'racehorse' tanks. You wouldn't want to try running a race on a workhorse, but by the same token you wouldn't want to try plowing a field with a racehorse.

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[mosuri]

30 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Re the illustration in the article, that toad will never become a prince no matter how many times you kiss it.

But if it took French-Italian diplomacy to get Orban to finally stop blocking the aid, kudos to Meloni and Macron.

[mosuri]

Another equipment counting video, this time on artillery.

Russia has drawn deeply from storage depots, although much still remains.

[zinz]

https://mastodon.social/@Tendar@newsie.social/111866702912127288

Quote

Geolocation of the struck Russian refinery in Volgograd. The coordinates are:

48°29'42"N 44°37'06"E

That part of the facility won’t be operational for some time.

Source of video: t.me/uniannet/124616

Another successful drone interception by a refinery 

[Carolus]

The big problem is that even the grognards in the warroom don't know what it is needed longterm.

Europe and the USA are trying to get their shell production up to 1 million per year, maybe they might want to get their plastic drone production up to 1 million per year as well. 

150 more T-72 family tanks for Ukraine are great, but while tanks are still useful they are looking like they are only moving the needle by the smallest of distances per invested sum.

If anything more, and more reliable, long distance strike capability seems like the only way to make Russia back off. 

Sanctions are slow and still have gaping holes, but they exist and China cannot fill very gap. Ukraine needs to take the tempo out of Russia and let the Moscowites slip more and more into despair. The constant grinding of the RA is costly, but it is also exhausting Ukraine and keeps them from taking the initiative.

If the West knew how modern war worked on a fundamental level, this would all be easier. But in general everyone is still trying to figure stuff out. Even the UA high command most likely doesn't, though they will keep trying new ideas simply because if they don't, they know their children will still fight this war in 10 years.

The only way to project force in a significant way at the moment is to go over, and Russia's air game is not up to snuff.

Edited February 3 by Carolus

[Ales Dvorak]

4 hours ago, MikeyD said:

You wouldn't want to try running a race on a workhorse, but by the same token you wouldn't want to try plowing a field with a racehorse.

Different horses for different courses.