The_Capt Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 hours ago, dan/california said: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-2-2024 Open-source investigations indicate that Russian forces are benefitting from Ukraine’s ammunition shortage and inability to conduct sufficient counterbattery warfare. Ukraine-based open-source organization Frontelligence Insight stated on February 1 that Russian forces previously established stationary artillery firing positions for long periods of time from late 2022 to early 2023 when ammunition shortages limited Ukrainian counterbattery warfare capabilities.[20] Frontelligence stated that Russian forces began to concentrate their artillery in a similar way in January 2024, suggesting that Ukrainian forces are again running low on artillery ammunition. Frontelligence stated that Ukrainian forces can sometimes strike Russian artillery but overall lack adequate ammunition for effective counterbattery fire. Frontelligence stated that the lack of Ukrainian counterbattery fire allows Russian artillery to largely destroy settlements, making it nearly impossible for Ukrainian forces to defend the settlements. Frontelligence stated that many of Ukraine’s FPV drones lack the range to strike the numerous Russian artillery pieces deployed 15 to 24 kilometers from the frontline. My sense is that the entire planet is running low an artillery ammunition - Russia is buying from NK FFS. So 1) what is the production rate and cost of an FPV vs a decent artillery shell? And 2) why can’t we make longer range FPVs? The Swtichblade 600 has something like an 80 km range. The Spike NLOS LR, similar range. So we know we can do long range tac strike (hell, what is “tactical” even mean anymore?). Clearly we have the technology. Challenge is to make it cheaper and with enough mass to push out to 25-30 kms. Why I am a fan of FPVs/loitering is the much lower military overhead costs. Lower logistical (fuel, maint and weight), lower training (FPV drivers vs gun crews, OP crews etc) and signature (eg exposure or enemy c-battery). 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBJ Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Thanks for this Hapless. https://community.battlefront.com/topic/140931-how-hot-is-ukraine-gonna-get/?do=findComment&comment=2025149 It took me a while but I got it all in and enjoyed it. Silly me, I hadn't run across Antal before. If I had a criticism, and I always do, just part of who I am, at command level he offers a lot of what to do without much how to do. For instance, his thoughts on CP survivability in major power war all seem spot on, but it's all focused on survivability and there's little detail on how to maintain and sustain same level of unit C4ISR as in the old way while being more survivable in the new way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBJ Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) 11 hours ago, chris talpas said: It isn’t code in the classical sense. You have the mathematical construct of a neuron which you code for and then have a vast interconnected web of these. You then train it where the strength of those interconnections is adjusted during training. It is analogous to our own brain where as we learn certain neural pathways are strengthened while others are pared away. It is almost a black box. The rate of improvement in AI both in narrow and broad applications is nothing short of astounding. I just worry the we are racing to develop the tools of our own demise with autonomous kill drones coupled with LLM AI that are becoming increasingly capable and closer to sentience. I would rather hope for Kurzweil symbiosis instead. Kurzweil symbiosis - Had to look this up too, nice to be part of a community that is both broadly and deeply educated. Relevance to this thread is this maybe where both Ukrainian and Russian staff work is headed. Emphasis added. https://www.thekurzweillibrary.com/man-computer-symbiosis Man-computer symbiosis is an expected development in cooperative interaction between men and electronic computers. It will involve very close coupling between the human and the electronic members of the partnership. The main aims are 1) to let computers facilitate formulative thinking as they now facilitate the solution of formulated problems, and 2) to enable men and computers to cooperate in making decisions and controlling complex situations without inflexible dependence on predetermined programs. In the anticipated symbiotic partnership, men will set the goals, formulate the hypotheses, determine the criteria, and perform the evaluations. Computing machines will do the routinizable work that must be done to prepare the way for insights and decisions in technical and scientific thinking. Edited February 3 by OBJ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) I wanted to link to this guy's yt channel. I think he is part of a Territorial Defense unit? He seems legit. He makes commentary videos on various weapons his squad got supplied or found or traded for. Obviously the scope of this forum is much bigger than squad-level tactics, but I still thought it is pretty interesting to hear someone give commentary from a place of more... rough field testing, so to say. Maybe there is even something in there that might change the pixeltruppen behaviour of the next game? Edited February 3 by Carolus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBJ Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) 9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: And thank you CAZmaj and dan/california for getting us back on topic Let's give the abstract AI stuff a rest, shall we? Steve Ooops, OK, got to this after my previous post. Edited February 3 by OBJ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) SBU hit next Russian oil refinery in Volgograd. Russian sources as usually say "all four drones were shot down, just fragments of one of them fell down on the territory of the refinery, causing a fire on 300 sq.m, then fire was extingushed, no casaualties". But video shows, at least one (SBU says two) drone hit technologucal equipment. This may cause reducing up to 15 % of refinery output capability After UKR drones taken out technology equipment of LNG terminal, refinery near St.Peterburg and refinery in Tuapse, casusing reducing of output capabilities or even full halt for weeks (LNG terminal and Tuapse refinery), according to traders data Russian export of gasoline and diesel has reduced in January on 37 % and 23 % respectively. The map of strikes or strike attempts for last months on Russian refineries (red marks) Edited February 3 by Haiduk 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 12 minutes ago, Haiduk said: SBU hit next Russian oil refinery in Volgograd. Russian sources as usually say "all four drones were shot down, just fragments of one of them feel down on the territory of the refinery, causing a fire on 300 sq.m, then fire was extingushed, no casaualties". But video shows, at least one (SBU says two) drone hit technologucal equipment. This may cause reducing up to 15 % of refinery output capability After UKR drones taken out technology equipment of LNG terminal, refinery near St.Peterburg and refinery in Tuapse, casusing reducing of output capabilities or even full halt for weeks (LNG terminal and Tuapse refinery), according to traders data Russian export of gasoline and diesel has reduced in January on 37 % and 23 % respectively. The map of strikes or strike attempts for last months on Russian refineries (red marks) I am so happy to see successful strikes on the refining and transportation machinery of Russia's oil/gas exporting capacity. Hitting storage tanks is good too, but they can either be bypassed or fixed relatively quickly and not expensively. The core infrastructure, though, is a very different story. It cracks me up to see Russian sources contradict themselves. It happens often and yet I still manage to get a laugh out of it! The Lukoil video of the hit to their facility does not support the official claim of "debris". I mean, if debris puts up that sort of fireball, I wonder what a direct it would look like! Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Oil refinery a day leads the russian economy astray. (stolen from reddit) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, Haiduk said: SBU hit next Russian oil refinery in Volgograd. Russian sources as usually say "all four drones were shot down, just fragments of one of them fell down on the territory of the refinery, causing a fire on 300 sq.m, then fire was extingushed, no casaualties". But video shows, at least one (SBU says two) drone hit technologucal equipment. This may cause reducing up to 15 % of refinery output capability After UKR drones taken out technology equipment of LNG terminal, refinery near St.Peterburg and refinery in Tuapse, casusing reducing of output capabilities or even full halt for weeks (LNG terminal and Tuapse refinery), according to traders data Russian export of gasoline and diesel has reduced in January on 37 % and 23 % respectively. The map of strikes or strike attempts for last months on Russian refineries (red marks) Good lord. Any one think we would ever live to see flames of war in Stalingrad again? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) GUR reported in Engels city Tu-95 bomber commander major Oleg Stegachov was shot out in own car. Currently unknown either he was wounded or killed. This officer with own aircraft participated in missile strikes on Ukraine. UPD. According to Fighterbomber TG this was "domestic conflict", in which "hooligans made several shots with traumatic pistol. Officer is alive and hospitalized with non-lethal wounds" Edited February 3 by Haiduk 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Historical cadres - UKR MLRS Uragan launches rockets from the barge to Zmiinyi island in spring 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) Sattelite images appeared with consequences of SCALP strike on Belbek airfield. Radar unit command center building was destroyed Edited February 3 by Haiduk 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Putin Goes After Scientists Behind 'Unique' Hypersonic Missiles (msn.com) At least 12 scientists in Russia have been detained in politically motivated arrests linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin's much-touted hypersonic missile program, it has been reported. Three have died since their arrests. Yevgeny Smirnov, a lawyer who represented the defendants, told news outlet BBC Russian that FSB sources told him every accusation was reported to Putin, and the arrests were to demonstrate that Russian missile technology is being hunted down. The cases aimed "to show that Russian missiles are the best and that they are trying to steal them," Smirnov told the outlet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 4 hours ago, The_Capt said: My sense is that the entire planet is running low an artillery ammunition - Russia is buying from NK FFS. So 1) what is the production rate and cost of an FPV vs a decent artillery shell? And 2) why can’t we make longer range FPVs? The Swtichblade 600 has something like an 80 km range. The Spike NLOS LR, similar range. So we know we can do long range tac strike (hell, what is “tactical” even mean anymore?). Clearly we have the technology. Challenge is to make it cheaper and with enough mass to push out to 25-30 kms. Much faster, in theory. Frame is one piece, can be injection molded plastic or carbon fiber at large scale. Motors just drop in, same with compute module and cameras and warhead. Balancing it is a thing. Assuming sufficient supply of these components, an assembly line of a few people should be able to crank out a hundred per day. Transmitter range from base station (send control signals) , and transmitter range on drone (send video and diagnostics back). So if you have mast at the base station, you can get a few more km, and if you have a repeater drone, some more. But you figure these drones have 20-40m endurance at 60-100kmh speed, so there’s more possible range than is capable with a small, low transmitter. Autonomy is how you solve it. My personal opinion is repeater drones are probably the best option as they protect the operators better. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, kimbosbread said: Much faster, in theory. Frame is one piece, can be injection molded plastic or carbon fiber at large scale. Motors just drop in, same with compute module and cameras and warhead. Balancing it is a thing. Assuming sufficient supply of these components, an assembly line of a few people should be able to crank out a hundred per day. Transmitter range from base station (send control signals) , and transmitter range on drone (send video and diagnostics back). So if you have mast at the base station, you can get a few more km, and if you have a repeater drone, some more. But you figure these drones have 20-40m endurance at 60-100kmh speed, so there’s more possible range than is capable with a small, low transmitter. Autonomy is how you solve it. My personal opinion is repeater drones are probably the best option as they protect the operators better. Now there is something cheap industrial balloons can do. Put them up all over the place with plenty of decoys. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 25 minutes ago, sburke said: Putin Goes After Scientists Behind 'Unique' Hypersonic Missiles (msn.com) At least 12 scientists in Russia have been detained in politically motivated arrests linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin's much-touted hypersonic missile program, it has been reported. Three have died since their arrests. Yevgeny Smirnov, a lawyer who represented the defendants, told news outlet BBC Russian that FSB sources told him every accusation was reported to Putin, and the arrests were to demonstrate that Russian missile technology is being hunted down. The cases aimed "to show that Russian missiles are the best and that they are trying to steal them," Smirnov told the outlet. Is it just me or does Russia sound more and more like NK everyday? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) New Zeland fighters, probably from UKR Foreign legion makes haka ) Tough guys %) Edited February 3 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, Haiduk said: GUR reported in Engels city Tu-95 bomber commander major Oleg Stegachov was shot out in own car. Currently unknown either he was wounded or killed. This officer with own aircraft participated in missile strikes on Ukraine. This is yet another way Ukraine can even the playing field... assassination of critical military personnel. If you can't shoot them out of the sky, then shoot them out of their cars. Been a while since we've seen one of these actions. My feeling is it won't be too long before we see another. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBJ Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: This is yet another way Ukraine can even the playing field... assassination of critical military personnel. If you can't shoot them out of the sky, then shoot them out of their cars. Been a while since we've seen one of these actions. My feeling is it won't be too long before we see another. Steve Oct 23 CIA ties going back to 2014, direct intell support leading to string of assassinations in Russia https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/23/ukraine-cia-shadow-war-russia/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 45 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: This is yet another way Ukraine can even the playing field... assassination of critical military personnel. If you can't shoot them out of the sky, then shoot them out of their cars. Been a while since we've seen one of these actions. My feeling is it won't be too long before we see another. Steve Fighterbomber TG claimed this was domestic conflict and hooligans just shot him several times from traumatic pistol. The officer is alive, but got some non-lethal injuries and hospitalized. But who knows. Initially Fighterbober has wriiten accordng his information this officer was retired two years ago %) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 14 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Fighterbomber TG claimed this was domestic conflict and hooligans just shot him several times from traumatic pistol. The officer is alive, but got some non-lethal injuries and hospitalized. But who knows. Initially Fighterbober has wriiten accordng his information this officer was retired two years ago %) We saw similar denials when the submarine commander was assassinated on his morning run. This was later confirmed to be GUR's work. But of course this is Russia so there's always more than one plausible explanations for a violent death. Sometimes more than one explanation for a non-violent death too! Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 4 hours ago, Haiduk said: SBU hit next Russian oil refinery in Volgograd. Russian sources as usually say "all four drones were shot down, just fragments of one of them fell down on the territory of the refinery, causing a fire on 300 sq.m, then fire was extingushed, no casaualties". But video shows, at least one (SBU says two) drone hit technologucal equipment. This may cause reducing up to 15 % of refinery output capability After UKR drones taken out technology equipment of LNG terminal, refinery near St.Peterburg and refinery in Tuapse, casusing reducing of output capabilities or even full halt for weeks (LNG terminal and Tuapse refinery), according to traders data Russian export of gasoline and diesel has reduced in January on 37 % and 23 % respectively. How long the productions remains interrupted depends on what part of the equipment was hit - probably hard to hit a precise part of the complex purely with GPS programming over such massive distances. But I hope UA has some oil and gas refinery grognards in their target selection chain. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) 7 hours ago, The_Capt said: My sense is that the entire planet is running low an artillery ammunition - Russia is buying from NK FFS. So 1) what is the production rate and cost of an FPV vs a decent artillery shell? And 2) why can’t we make longer range FPVs? The Swtichblade 600 has something like an 80 km range. The Spike NLOS LR, similar range. So we know we can do long range tac strike (hell, what is “tactical” even mean anymore?). Clearly we have the technology. Challenge is to make it cheaper and with enough mass to push out to 25-30 kms. Why I am a fan of FPVs/loitering is the much lower military overhead costs. Lower logistical (fuel, maint and weight), lower training (FPV drivers vs gun crews, OP crews etc) and signature (eg exposure or enemy c-battery). 4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: I am so happy to see successful strikes on the refining and transportation machinery of Russia's oil/gas exporting capacity. Hitting storage tanks is good too, but they can either be bypassed or fixed relatively quickly and not expensively. The core infrastructure, though, is a very different story. It cracks me up to see Russian sources contradict themselves. It happens often and yet I still manage to get a laugh out of it! The Lukoil video of the hit to their facility does not support the official claim of "debris". I mean, if debris puts up that sort of fireball, I wonder what a direct it would look like! Steve 2 hours ago, kimbosbread said: Much faster, in theory. Frame is one piece, can be injection molded plastic or carbon fiber at large scale. Motors just drop in, same with compute module and cameras and warhead. Balancing it is a thing. Assuming sufficient supply of these components, an assembly line of a few people should be able to crank out a hundred per day. Transmitter range from base station (send control signals) , and transmitter range on drone (send video and diagnostics back). So if you have mast at the base station, you can get a few more km, and if you have a repeater drone, some more. But you figure these drones have 20-40m endurance at 60-100kmh speed, so there’s more possible range than is capable with a small, low transmitter. Autonomy is how you solve it. My personal opinion is repeater drones are probably the best option as they protect the operators better. the problem with artillery ammunition, and barrels, is that they have to withstand absurdly high stress. Quote https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA027025.pdf Above is a very technical article from decades ago proving that a slightly cheaper grade of steel was not going to work. Virtually nothing in the civilian economy operates at the same kind of stress levels. So there is exactly as much capacity out there as the government has been willing to pay for. The single biggest lesson of this war is that we weren't paying for even a fraction of enough. What makes this much worse is that production machinery, and the machines to make the production machinery are just as specialized, and the capacity for all of it has withered with three plus decades of very low demand. Resurrecting all of that is requires serious engineering AFTER we get of our rear ends in gear and write the checks, and contracts to pay for it. We have done an absolutely crap job of doing that in a coherent way, that admits this problem isn't going away next week. Rheinmetal and the various U.S. defense contractors need SIGNED CONTRACTS to even get started. Two years in many of those contracts STILL aren't signed. It is a an epic case study in refusing to admit there is a war on. Quote https://www.baesystems.com/en/product/155mm-artillery-ammunition Next Generation Adaptable Ammunition… Launching 2025 Our Next Generation Adaptable Ammunition is a modular artillery concept. Designed from a requirement to maximise ease of manufacture and minimise cost, delivering a capability which is highly responsive to demand. This 155mm ammunition is customisable, based on tactical requirements, allowing our customer to ‘mix and match’ the various components available. Utilising the innovative technology that we’ve developed, our Next Generation Adaptable Ammunition will be capable of delivering improved performance, enhanced effect and extended range. There is real engineering being done on dragging whole process from 1950s tech up to something modern, but please note the 2025 delivery date for the first new model shells. Drones are pretty much the polar opposite in terms of the difficulty of manufacturing. Every single piece that goes into them is common civilian tech. The actual warheads are usually RPG rounds simply because there are warehouses full of them around. There is nothing particularly complicated about designing warhead for drone use that would be lighter, cheaper and more effective. Because drones do not undergo the enormous stresses that being fired even from a RPG, much less a 155mm artillery barrel impose. Any thin wall tubing would work just fine. Soda cans would probably work just fine. Someone just has to decide to order five million of the bleeping things and it ought to be possible to put together a factory in six months that can make a thousand of them an hour with out ever being touched by a human hand. Somebody just has to make a decision and write a contract. The Ukrainians seem to have been trying to get this underway, but nobody else is trying nearly hard enough. Quote https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1020261.pdf TURNING POINT: A HISTORY OF GERMAN PETROLEUM IN WORLD WAR II AND ITS LESSONS FOR THE ROLE OF OIL IN MODERN AIR WARFARE In regard to the Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil infrastructure, it is has been known since 1945 that attacking oil infrastructure is most effective method of conducting a strategic bombing campaign. Refineries, and chemical factories, are the linchpin of the modern world. They are big, flammable, impossible to hide, and there are not that many of them. Ukraine should focus on them almost exclusively. The strike someone mentioned on a critical factory for Lancet production is the exception that proves the rule. Edited February 3 by dan/california 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 All complaints about pathing in the game will be refrred to this video forevermore. 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, Haiduk said: New Zeland fighters, probably from UKR Foreign legion makes haka ) I suspect that probably one of the training teams in the UK, based on the uniforms and the size of the contingent. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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