How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Kharkiv - direct hit of S-300 missile at the multistorey building. One section is collapsed. Rescue works is ongoing

 

I'm glad you're OK and I'm sorry for those who are not.

On a slightly positive note, last night I was thinking about Russia's terror strikes in the context of Ukraine's increasing ability to hit real targets deep into Russia.  Including the information Ukraine received from the recent data hacking of Russian MoD information.

I find it odd that after two years of war Russia is still not conducting meaningful strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure related to the war.  We know it can hit specific targets if it wants to, such as the grain infrastructure and occasionally a military installation or factory.  But it seems to me that 90% of what it does is purely aimed at civilian or low value infrastructure.  Even last year when its obvious goal was to freeze Ukraine's people, power plants and other easily struck targets weren't even attacked.

Sure, sure, sure... I know all the possible explanations for this.  Incompetence, cruelty, institutional failures, weapons shortcomings, etc.  I'm sure there's some of all of this going on.  And yet I still can't quite reconcile Russia's behavior with these explanations.  I feel like there's something missing from the explanation, even if it is a fairly small part of the whole.

Steve

[Holien]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

find it odd that after two years of war Russia is still not conducting meaningful strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure related to the war. 

Hmm I am not so sure we would know as I think Ukraine is pretty good at keeping quiet about Russian success.

I do think the AD is holding up but they are slipping some missiles through and we don't get reports on what they hit.

So not sure this is still true?

[Harmon Rabb]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crap!  I can't believe I missed this post.  Our old buddy Scott Ritter is making it clear he's a paid Russian shill.  That's fun!  What next, Douglas Macgregor showing up in Uralvagonzavod to cheer on Russian workers?

Steve

Scott Ritter is a perfect example of how low a once respected military officer can sink in life.

A shame how he uses his background as a Marine Officer to promote his rubbish. A lot of people don't bother looking into his background and just trust him because of the uniform he used to wear. Guessing him being placed on a sex offender registry limited his ability to find respectable work like he used to have.

Here is another shameful place one can unfortunately find Ritter's face besides Kadyrov's rallies, for those who maybe don't know. 

 

Edited January 23 by Harmon Rabb

[kimbosbread]

Has to be a combination of several factors:

• Russia’s weapons aren’t that precise
• They don’t have the ISR assets available for finding large numbers of targets and confirming they are hit (how many optical spy satellites do they have? 2?)
• A lot of Russia’s behavior is performative and top-down, that is, send a bunch of mobiks over the hill, or fire your quota of artillery rounds. If Puting orders a big strike, just shoot all your missiles.
• Ukraine won’t publicize any success

Sure, Russia has certainly destroyed some strategic targets (Hrim components, training camps, power plants), but simply doesn’t have the precision and quantity and ISR to really knock out for example all power stations in Ukraine. They tried last year, and they couldn’t do it.

EDIT: They’ve lost tons of assets on the ground, thanks to SBU, using SF as regular infantry, losing most of their pre-war professional military. That has to play a role too.

Edited January 23 by kimbosbread

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm glad you're OK and I'm sorry for those who are not.

On a slightly positive note, last night I was thinking about Russia's terror strikes in the context of Ukraine's increasing ability to hit real targets deep into Russia.  Including the information Ukraine received from the recent data hacking of Russian MoD information.

I find it odd that after two years of war Russia is still not conducting meaningful strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure related to the war.  We know it can hit specific targets if it wants to, such as the grain infrastructure and occasionally a military installation or factory.  But it seems to me that 90% of what it does is purely aimed at civilian or low value infrastructure.  Even last year when its obvious goal was to freeze Ukraine's people, power plants and other easily struck targets weren't even attacked.

Sure, sure, sure... I know all the possible explanations for this.  Incompetence, cruelty, institutional failures, weapons shortcomings, etc.  I'm sure there's some of all of this going on.  And yet I still can't quite reconcile Russia's behavior with these explanations.  I feel like there's something missing from the explanation, even if it is a fairly small part of the whole.

Steve

The one explanation I can come up with is that it is not really about hitting civilians but about forcing Ukraine to defend the cities. Those highly capable long range systems like Patriot and Iris-T could otherwise be used at the front and probably prevent Russian aviation from using gliding bombs etc.

[Harmon Rabb]

AFU FPV drone in action.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Holien said:

Hmm I am not so sure we would know as I think Ukraine is pretty good at keeping quiet about Russian success.

I do think the AD is holding up but they are slipping some missiles through and we don't get reports on what they hit.

So not sure this is still true?

I think so.

We get enough reports about how many were launched and intercepted to know most don't get through.  The ones that do are often reported on because it's residential or some farmer's field.  Assume some of those getting through and not reported are hitting something militarily useful, how many are we talking as a percentage?  It's got to be massively low.

On the Ukrainian side we don't know how many strikes don't make it, but it doesn't seem to be that many.  Russians report on strikes and interceptions pretty openly, though obviously official sources lie about the circumstances.

For sure Ukraine's defensive capabilities are largely due to Western equipment, but offensive weaponry is mostly home grown.  Western ISR and intel sharing certainly helps with target selection, though not likely actually hitting the target.

The comparative results are pretty obviously in favor of Ukraine. 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

The one explanation I can come up with is that it is not really about hitting civilians but about forcing Ukraine to defend the cities. Those highly capable long range systems like Patriot and Iris-T could otherwise be used at the front and probably prevent Russian aviation from using gliding bombs etc.

Perhaps.  But keep in mind that these Western systems are there BECAUSE of the Russian terror strikes.  If Russia had never engaged in these terror strikes there would be a lot fewer Western AD systems in Ukraine now.

Steve

[Holien]

On 1/13/2024 at 5:31 PM, Haiduk said:

This morning Russia again conducted missile strike on Ukraine and again most of missiles were either ballistic or high-speed super-sonic. There were impacts in Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv and Kharkiv oblast, Shostka (Sumy oblast - there was a military factory, but unknown eithr it works now or not, because this cit is close to the border), western Ukraine

Total were launched:

3 Shaheds (0 shot down)

7 S-300 (0)

6 Kh-47 Kinzhal (0, but only 3 hit targets or close to them)

12 Kh-101 (7 + 13th missile crashed in Krasnodar region of Russia)

6 Kh-22 (0)

4 Kh-59 (1)

2 Kh-31P (0)

Air Force Command claimed despite only 8 taghets of 40 were intercepted, but 20 aerial attack assets didn't reach own targets due to EW systems work (I veeery doubt) and due to bad quality of missile assembling on Russian factories  

 

This attack on the 13th how do we know of the ones that got through did they not hit military valid targets? 

Not many reports of residential areas being hit? 

26 missiles hit something that they were aimed at?

I think the Russians are getting smarter and we won't necessarily be told (rightly so) how better they are getting.

Just my 2p.

I would certainly support giving Ukraine even more modern AD and especially Patriot systems and ammo but alas that seems unlikely at the moment as world tensions rise.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

AFU FPV drone in action.

Did it literally fly in the open hatch?

[FancyCat]

One clear feature i hope NATO and EU and our non-NATO allies take from this, military production must be localized again, less relying on American ammo. Gah, where the hell is the American military industrial complex when you need their overarching influence on American politics....

[The_Capt]

45 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Did it literally fly in the open hatch?

I think it did.  Well crew felt no pain....

[LongLeftFlank]

8 hours ago, poesel said:

DW has a longer article (in German) about the situation in Baschkortostan.

TL;DR: will it topple Russia? - no, but it is a sign.

https://www.dw.com/de/was-es-mit-den-protesten-in-russland-auf-sich-hat/a-68026361

Galeev backgrounder (short thread)

Punchline: 

1. This has nothing to do with "Russians protesting against Putin".

2. These are protests in an ethnic Turkic & Muslim region largely motivated by the disregard to local sacred places & ecology

3. And, to a certain degree, by the local nationalist sentiment

****

While I'm looking at Galeev:

 

Edited January 23 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Galeev backgrounder (short thread)

Punchline: 

1. This has nothing to do with "Russians protesting against Putin".

2. These are protests in an ethnic Turkic & Muslim region largely motivated by the disregard to local sacred places & ecology

3. And, to a certain degree, by the local nationalist sentiment

****

While I'm looking at Galeev:

 

I am very curious who knocks on your door if you order one of these inside China? And you are ever seen again?

[cesmonkey]

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[dan/california]

He will sitting at the high table in Valhalla.

Peace to his family. 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Latest on Avdiivka and Helicopters Operations.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1749922739467477072

1/ By late 2023, Frontelligence Insight noted a stabilized situation in Avdiivka. However, recent developments have worsened the situation for Ukrainian troops, especially in the southern residential area.

2/ While the northern part of Avdiivka is shielded by the AKHZ (industrial buildings), the southern area is comprised of one to two-story houses susceptible to artillery fire. If unable to capture the area, russians erase it with artillery, deploy infantry, and seize the rubble.

3/ The visible artillery strikes, moving from the outskirts to residential areas, indicate the shift. Eventually, the damage makes defense challenging. The same problem extends to nearby multi-story apartment buildings targeted by previous Russian FAB hits.

4/ The situation on the flanks remains more stable, enabling Ukrainian forces to defend Avdiivka. Sattelite imagery shows a continued shift of artillery fire north of Avdiivka, targeting areas near Stepove, Berdychi, Novobakhmutivka, and Novokalynivka.

5/ In summary, Avdiivka's situation has worsened due to limited artillery ammo, a decrease in counter-battery fire, and a lack of reinforcements. Russia exploits these gaps, leveraging its personnel and ammo numbers advantage.

6/ Resurgence of Helicopter Operations

Our team previously identified a FARP (Forward Arming and Refueling Point) helicopter base in Strilkove. Following Ukraine's ATACMS strikes on airfields in Luhansk and Berdyansk, the base was abandoned and remained unused until recently.

7/ Recent imagery from January 2024 reveals the presence of Russian helicopters at the base. Analysis over multiple days indicates that Russians keep no more than 3-4 helicopters at a time. Additionally, the helicopters appear to be more dispersed.

[Carolus]

An article about Russian economics - a very scalding one.

[Sgt Joch]

Quote

A) Contrary to the last year/season (2022-2023), when the primary target of Russian missile strikes on Ukraine was the Ukrainian power grid and power supply system (i.e. ‘energy sector’), this year - or at least: ‘since 23 December 2023’ and ‘so far’ (see: in period 23 December 2023 - 2 January 2024) - they seem to be primarily targeting Ukrainian defence industry. 

B Secondary targets appear to be major command facilities (or ‘nodes’) of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ZSU) and air bases of the Ukrainian Air Force (PSU).

Hi, so as to what the Russians seem to be targeting, Tom Cooper came up with some plausible conclusions based on available facts (see above). Last winter, the Russians seemed to be targeting the Ukrainian energy grid and this year, they seem to be targeting UKR defence industries, command facilities and UKR air bases.

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-4-january-2024-q-and?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

The problem in trying to make sense of what is actually going on is that the Ukrainians, quite rightly, keep a tight lid on what info is released and, of course, tend to highlight the Russian strikes which cause civilian casualties.

Edited January 24 by Sgt Joch

[Tux]

Another confusing event reported on the beeb:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-68079336

 

tldr; Russian Defence Ministry claims that 65 Ukrainian POWs, 6 crew members and 3 escorts were on board an Il-76 shot down “by Ukraine”, 70km NE of Belgorod.

No real evidence yet but, combined with the strikes on Donetsk a couple of days ago there are definitely some odd noises coming out of the background these days.

Or I guess it’s probably all just normal FOW stuff and the inevitable result of lots of shells and missiles being lobbed around the place.

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, Tux said:

Another confusing event reported on the beeb:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-68079336

 

tldr; Russian Defence Ministry claims that 65 Ukrainian POWs, 6 crew members and 3 escorts were on board an Il-76 shot down “by Ukraine”, 70km NE of Belgorod.

No real evidence yet but, combined with the strikes on Donetsk a couple of days ago there are definitely some odd noises coming out of the background these days.

Or I guess it’s probably all just normal FOW stuff and the inevitable result of lots of shells and missiles being lobbed around the place.

Video from incident; note smoke on the left of the screen, likely coming from AA:

 

New theory is that there was other plane with prisoners for swap in vicinity, but it wasn't this one. A lot of fakes and disinfo are flying so we will need to wait till it clarify. For now it is highly likely somebody's AA was involved, so it is not accident. Russian Duma now reportedly prepares appeal to USA to stop supplying missiles to Ukraine.

[Tux]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Video from incident; note smoke on the left of the screen, likely coming from AA:

 

New theory is that there was other plane with prisoners for swap in vicinity, but it wasn't this one. A lot of fakes and disinfo are flying so we will need to wait till it clarify. For now it is highly likely somebody's AA was involved, so it is not accident. Russian Duma now reportedly prepares appeal to USA to stop supplying missiles to Ukraine.

Thanks.

“Russian Duma now reportedly prepares appeal to USA to stop supplying missiles to Ukraine.”  Interested in what form this takes.  We’ve heard basic calls to stop arming Ukraine before but something more formal begins to sound a lot like asking for de-escalation…

[Letter from Prague]

18 hours ago, FancyCat said:

One clear feature i hope NATO and EU and our non-NATO allies take from this, military production must be localized again, less relying on American ammo. Gah, where the hell is the American military industrial complex when you need their overarching influence on American politics....

Yeah, where is shadowy cabal in control of politics when you need one?

[Letter from Prague]

Someone is claiming it was a flight from Iran, so probably Iranian ammo or drones or something - I don't think they would be exactly taking POWs to Red Sea resorts or whatever.