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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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On 1/15/2024 at 8:32 PM, Chibot Mk IX said:

 

They are targeting T-80BVM's Ammo rack, 

This trick probably doesn't work on T-72s

 

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It's hard to say. Here two more the same attacks from top-back with the same result - tanks were nuked. 

First... T-72B3 is nuked

Second... I can't recognize the type. Fiers drone likely hit the turet protected by ERA, the secong drone hit top-back zone and tank turned out to fireball

 

Edited by Haiduk
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Usual strike on Russian SA-8 "Osa" SAM near Radensk, Kherson oblast day ago...

... But from Russian TG became knowingly in this vehcile occasionally sat commander of 2nd AD regiment of 104th air-assault division lt. colonel Ruslan Atanov. He was kileld in this strike. Next stupid death of high-ranked VDV officer there. 10 days ago a chief of VDV armor service in rank of colonel was killed, when tried personally to deliver a rope for evacuation of disabled BTR. 

 image.png.e3ffa30f2796912bb0ee1ff1cdb2e70c.png

Edited by Haiduk
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42 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's hard to say. Here two more the same attacks from top-back with the same result - tanks were nuked. 

First... Author claims this is T-90M, but I've seen the same video, where this tank was pointed like T-72B3M

https://twitter.com/Getty776/status/1747179773091344878

Second... I can't recognize the type. Fiers drone likely hit the turet protected by ERA, the secong drone hit top-back zone and tank turned out to fireball

 

Pretty much everything the Russians built after 1970 has that autoloading carousel hanging under the turret. That seems to pretty much make all of them bombs on treads if something penetrates in the general direction of the center of mass of the vehicle. Hitting the back of the turret in a dive is pretty much a bullseye in that regard.

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It's hard video, but need to avoid "echo chamber effect". The price of our bridgehead holding and expanding in Krynky. Video of Russian propagandist account, shows result of failed attempts of river crossing and evacuation of fallen comrades (in black bags). Episodes lilkely filmed during late autumn or in early December.

Those, who fight there say too much "missed in Krynky", because not always it's possible to find and evacuate bodies, especially if enemy sank boats.  

 

Edited by Haiduk
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Southern Sudanian (??? he says unitelligibly) in Russian army. Russian chaplain says Richard on the eve was baptised in Orthodox faith and take communion, so he is great guy - come from Africa to fight for "Russian world", so Christ with us and victory will be ours.

Well... all routines to meat assault are passed. 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's hard video, but need to avoid "echo chamber effect". The price of our bridgehead holding and expanding in Krynky. Video of Russian propagandist account, shows result of failed attempts of river crossing and evacuation of fallen comrades (in black bags). Episodes lilkely filmed during late autumn or in early December.

Those, who fight there say too much "missed in Krynky", because not always it's possible to find and evacuate bodies, especially if enemy sank boats.  

 

Haiduk, I have so much respect for you because you are always balanced in your opinion and share even horrible videos showing your countrymen getting killed, no matter how bad it must feel. That's very unique. I hope the best for you and your country.

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6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Haiduk, I have so much respect for you because you are always balanced in your opinion and share even horrible videos showing your countrymen getting killed, no matter how bad it must feel. That's very unique. I hope the best for you and your country.

Ten years in historical re-enactment taught me to have balanced point of view, cutting off obviuos propaganda and lie.

Since years this war will become a heritage of history. And researchers will discover many hard things about which shouldn't talk officially right now.   

Edited by Haiduk
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13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ten years in historical re-enactment taught me to have balanced point of view, cutting off obviuos propaganda and lie.

Since years this war will become a heritage of history. And researchers will discover many hard things about which shouldn't talk officially right now.   

True, but to be critical of the propaganda of even your own side is rare. I appreciate your comments here.

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12 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

True, but to be critical of the propaganda of even your own side is rare. I appreciate your comments here.

I wouldn't be name our media efforts as "propaganda" in negative sense, like in Russia. During WWII US news or war chronic in cinema before movies told the same as now in Ukraine and in any country at the war - "our brave soldiers fight hard, but they are crashing the enemy". Very rare about retreats, losses, burned columns etc. And this is quite justified for public morale reasons. But this have own back side...

Ordinary Ukrianian people, who track the war from time to time from TV or from internet rumors are very sensitive and can be easy affected by Russian PsyOps. When our army goes forward, they take it for granted. But if we lost some piece of field or a tiny village or OMG a town - that's all - internet is filling with a panic and defeatism.  

Edited by Haiduk
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3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I wouldn't be name our media efforts as "propaganda" in negative sense, like in Russia. During WWII US news or war chronic in cinema before movies told the same as now in Ukraine and in any country at the war - "our brave soldiers fight hard, but they are crashing the enemy". Very rare about retreats, losses, burned columns etc. And this is quite justified for public morale reasons. But this have own back side...

Ordinary Ukrianian people, who track the war from time to time from TV or from internet rumors are very sensitive and can be easy affected by Russian PsyOps. When our army goes forward, they take it for granted. But if we lost some piece of field or a tiny village or OMG a town - that's all - internet is filling with a panic and defeatism.  

We are all subject to propaganda. Showing our own side winning. You got my respect by also showing when your side is losing, even though I am sure it feels terrible for you to see. That must hurt like hell. I salute you for that.

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1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

We are all subject to propaganda. Showing our own side winning. You got my respect by also showing when your side is losing, even though I am sure it feels terrible for you to see. That must hurt like hell. I salute you for that.

The war is not always victories. The enemy is strong, cruel and learn on own failures. It was big mistake of our state-propaganda to describe Russians so-long as "pathetic chmobiks", "alcoholics" and "stupid". Yes, they have stupid command, but Russian capabilities to survive in aggressive and deadly environment, their savvy, directed to survival, their natural aggression, fatalism and fanaticism make them very dangerous enemy. 

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1 hour ago, IanL said:

If you are already operating at the air field just hit them taxiing or hell parked even.

The better part of hitting them taking off is that they're fully loaded and fueled, they're far from ER teams; also they are close to the ground so no room to maneuver and pilot surprise /distraction can easily snot them into the tarmac even if you don't hit. 

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5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The war is not always victories. The enemy is strong, cruel and learn on own failures. It was big mistake of our state-propaganda to describe Russians so-long as "pathetic chmobiks", "alcoholics" and "stupid". Yes, they have stupid command, but Russian capabilities to survive in aggressive and deadly environment, their savvy, directed to survival, their natural aggression, fatalism and fanaticism make them very dangerous enemy. 

I completely agree. And I think many people in Europe and the USA are now thinking: If those Russians are so stupid and incompetent, why haven't they lost yet? And why do we have to keep funding this war?

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3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

And why do we have to keep funding this war?

I'm not a fan of our UK government, but I am a fan of their support for Ukraine and I don't think there's any call in the country for that to change.  For example see PM Sunak's speech today in Parliament, and the agreement of the opposition leader Starmer.  They both mentioned a hope that renewed UK support will become a model for other countries...

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China Deals Major Blow to Russian Economy (msn.com)

For those who insist sanctions aren't helping 

Quote

 

China's state-owned banks are tightening curbs on funding to Russian clients as they fear being subjected to secondary sanctions from the U.S., according to a Tuesday report by Bloomberg.

At least two banks have ordered a review of their Russian businesses in recent weeks and plan to sever ties with clients on the U.S. sanction list. The banks will also stop providing financial services to the Russian military sector, according to sources familiar with the matter, and review companies including non-Russian clients doing business in Russia or sending critical goods to Russia through a third country.

The move comes after the U.S. Treasury Department announced last month that it would impose secondary sanctions on overseas financial firms and banks helping Moscow's war effort in Ukraine and processing Russia's transactions to buy equipment for its military.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described the issue as a highly sensitive matter for the companies involved, but not for the Russian government.

"This is a very, very sensitive area and it is unlikely that anyone will undertake to talk about it—you shouldn't expect that," Peskov said, according to Reuters. "We continue to develop relations with China. It's our very important strategic partner."

Peskov added that trade relationships between the two countries are still strong, with Russia reporting a higher-than-expected volume of bilateral trade with China.

"We have confidently surpassed $200 billion and continue to grow," Peskov said.

Chinese lenders stepped into the Russian banking sector at the same time as Western banks pulled out following Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, filling a gap that would have left the country's economy much weaker than it is now. China is now the biggest importer of fossil fuel from Russia, having more than doubled its coal shipments since 2020.

Their exodus might be painful for Russia and for the Kremlin, especially as Beijing's alleged fear of Western sanctions would signal that even leaders who have remained close to Moscow after the start of the war in Ukraine are wary of the likely financial cost of standing by the Kremlin.

But the move would also reflect China's ambivalence toward Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. Despite offering diplomatic support to Russian President Vladimir Putin and promising to expand trade between the two countries, Beijing has kept from fully supporting the war in Ukraine and has not offered significant military assistance to Moscow.

Previous Western sanctions have made Russia weaker and more reliant on China, as they deprived the country's central bank of access to about half of its international reserves and left it with only gold and yuan. Russian banks have also turned to China's UnionPay after Visa and Mastercard suspended their operations in the country following the invasion.

Chris Weafer, chief executive officer of strategic consultants Macro-Advisory Ltd., which focuses on Russia and the Eurasia region, previously told Newsweek that Russia should be wary of this increased reliance on China.

"While China is eagerly buying energy and materials and selling Chinese-made goods to the Russia market, all of which suits Beijing, there is very little investment coming into Russia, certainly nothing like enough to replace the lost investment from exiting Western companies and investors," he said.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

The war is not always victories. The enemy is strong, cruel and learn on own failures. It was big mistake of our state-propaganda to describe Russians so-long as "pathetic chmobiks", "alcoholics" and "stupid". Yes, they have stupid command, but Russian capabilities to survive in aggressive and deadly environment, their savvy, directed to survival, their natural aggression, fatalism and fanaticism make them very dangerous enemy. 

This not just a Ukrainian problem, it is a problem for any nation with a population that cares about its own losses.  The US forces in Somalia had to withdraw because of one small battle that went badly.  People were in shock that US "elite" forces could be bested by low quality militia.  This one battle had massive impacts on US foreign policy for years to come and was, in part, why Al Qaeda was ignored for so long.  No US politician wanted to see American bodies dragged some distant street.

Steve

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some good bits here today.  RU city steam system pipe breaks, flooding streams w scalding water.  Never seen that before.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/1/16/2217611/-More-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-burning-and-freezing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

So we see all these RU cities w infrastructure breakdowns -- is this just due to the heavy cold snap hitting RU along w bad infrastructure?  Or is there sabotage going on also?  Anyone have any info on this?  Is it just that this cold snap so bad that it brought to the surface failures waiting to happen?  

Meanwhile, RU taking very heavy losses, day after day after day.  Putin must be feeling very confident to do this.  It may be really stupid, I don't know, but it does show a lot of confidence.

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6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

some good bits here today.  RU city steam system pipe breaks, flooding streams w scalding water.  Never seen that before.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/1/16/2217611/-More-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-burning-and-freezing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

So we see all these RU cities w infrastructure breakdowns -- is this just due to the heavy cold snap hitting RU along w bad infrastructure?  Or is there sabotage going on also?  Anyone have any info on this?  Is it just that this cold snap so bad that it brought to the surface failures waiting to happen?  

Meanwhile, RU taking very heavy losses, day after day after day.  Putin must be feeling very confident to do this.  It may be really stupid, I don't know, but it does show a lot of confidence.

And then all that water is going to freeze into a glacier that will be there until May...

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59 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

some good bits here today.  RU city steam system pipe breaks, flooding streams w scalding water.  Never seen that before.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/1/16/2217611/-More-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-burning-and-freezing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

So we see all these RU cities w infrastructure breakdowns -- is this just due to the heavy cold snap hitting RU along w bad infrastructure?  Or is there sabotage going on also?  Anyone have any info on this?  Is it just that this cold snap so bad that it brought to the surface failures waiting to happen?  

Meanwhile, RU taking very heavy losses, day after day after day.  Putin must be feeling very confident to do this.  It may be really stupid, I don't know, but it does show a lot of confidence.

It would take an expert on Russian infrastructure to give us a sense of what this might mean.  However, it's pretty easy to sketch out the possibilities:

1.  Normal for Russia coming from the usual combo of corruption and neglect.  Nothing interesting to see here.

2.  Above and beyond normal Russian problems as a result of increased impact from corruption and/or neglect.  Less public spending means less opportunity for easy graft, which means those who make a living off of graft take proportionally more than they did before.  A $1m job from 3 years ago may have had $200k carved out as graft.  Now because there's fewer jobs to steal from that $1m job may have $300k carved out.  And with everything costing more that may effectively mean even less actual work/product done out of what remains after everybody takes their cut.

3.  Reduced public spending to maintain what already exists.  Aside from the possibility of increased graft, it is fact that the Russian government has been facing increasing demands for public spending while at the same time having less revenue coming in.  That has only gotten worse since the war started.

Here's a report published back in 2019 by an influential European think tank.  It provides a good overview of where the Russian economy was headed before this war and why I maintain part of the reason for attacking Ukraine was economic (even if it was to distract from it):

https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2019RP02/

Steve

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