Butschi Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 hours ago, Zeleban said: I wonder what they call the desire to get along with someone who dreams of destroying you and has repeatedly directly stated this "Get along" doesn't mean BFFs and it doesn't mean rolling over and giving up. It means, in case Mr. Trump gets elected and restarts his "deal making" (aka economic warfare) we can't fight on all fronts at once. Not USA, Russia and China at the same time. It doesn't have to mean appeasing Putin, either. Instead it may mean making shady deals with China, which IMHO is way more probable. Anyway, last attempt at having a meaningful discussion from my side. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Butschi said: "Get along" doesn't mean BFFs and it doesn't mean rolling over and giving up. It means, in case Mr. Trump gets elected and restarts his "deal making" (aka economic warfare) we can't fight on all fronts at once. Not USA, Russia and China at the same time. It doesn't have to mean appeasing Putin, either. Instead it may mean making shady deals with China, which IMHO is way more probable. Anyway, last attempt at having a meaningful discussion from my side. If Trump gets back in power he will be full-on pro-Putin. I am saying this based on nothing more concrete than all of Trump's actions and words to this point. Oh, and the fact that he knows how much RU-funded propaganda helps him. I am always confused when people think Trump would do otherwise, when the evidence for him helping Putin is so overwhelming. Note: this not at all directed at you Butschi. Your post just reminded me of this rather odd thing where folks think somehow Trump would keep supporting UKR. Edited January 5 by danfrodo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
photon Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 51 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Amateurs talk stuff, professionals talk systems, masters talk options I really like this. I'd add that in the debate between the sequentialists and cumulativists, it looks like the balance has shifted way towards the cumulativists. If there's going to a way to solve for offense in the current environment, it's going to be the cumulative degradation of the opponent's strategic option space faster than it can regenerate. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 2 hours ago, The_Capt said: If you had read that wall of text I did and it contained exactly the same bullet points what the article I posted summarised. Quote In the actual transcript of the release, Miller did not even hint at any of this. You read as far as "support won't be at same levels as 22-23" and ran around the thread like your hair was on fire. The talking head at State did not signal a complete end to US support. He is signaling: - Pressure being put on US Congress to sh#t or get off the pot on this because it is becoming un-funny. Would you expect him to say anything of the sort? "Fact" is, support is ending, very much uncertain is what this long term strategic shift will envision and how that will be achieved within presidential election time while republicans shift further down the Putin hole. This started with a few unreasonable unimportant noise makers that made Ukraine their talking point, it has spread to the whole party, elections will make it worse not easier to get funding through and if you want to build up factories and send the AD to protect them, its going to cost a lot more than hand-me-downs and write-offs of vehicles already leaving service. Which is why conclusion to this stated "goal" is pessimistic. But we will see, maybe tomorrow republicans will wake up and finance the greatest Ukrainian MIC the world has ever seen, that not only burns money through produced tanks blowing up but also makes itself self sufficient by selling.. something! Quote So if you honestly thought that the US was looking to push another $100B in tanks so the UA could somehow magically drive Russia off every inch of Ukraine soil...well, ya that ship has likely sailed I expected more than 31 Abrams but $100B sounds much better, a crazy unit price though. Evidently, it will be a natural number <31, the range of possibilities is thus not endless when evaluting this lowered support. As I said, all the combined effort and storage cleaning of the last 2 years amounted to a stalemate, spooling down will not lead to winning when russia is now putting 30% of its GDP into the military. Should we compare this with Ukraines GDP to see how far free market deals would get us? Quote business...now that is commitment. - That the longer term strategy is not to keep pumping tactical aid endlessly into Ukraine for the next 10 years. But instead create a sustainable longer term strategic solution. This is something Putin should actually be worried about. Tanks come and go, but business...now that is commitment. And Business hates risks, what would help business? Government commitment to a clear definable goal, which hasnt been offered for 2 years, as politicans stay far away from anything definable so they can hedge their bets and drop out if stuff moves sideways. This new vote of confidence in a self sufficient Ukraine without its largest assistance provider will surely help quell investors fears that their capital investments wont be devalued by cruise missiles or unfavorable peace treaties. Quote Good news...there is an entire community of folks here who do. So next time a Ukrainian newspaper declares "AN END TO ALL UKRIANIAN SUPPORT!!!" Maybe come here and ask "hey guys what is this all about?" As opposed to Chicken Little-ing all over the place and freaking the f#ck out. Ah okay Edited January 5 by Kraft 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: German managed to produce thousands of tanks despite the USAF and RAF literally razing entire cities to the ground. Russia's campaign in Ukraine is more like German's bombings of London... more terror than practical. WWII analogies have its limits. One missed factor here is that during WWII continent was literally shut deaf along warring sides lines. One could find an industrial target worth to bomb in Germany or occupied Europe in two ways: - Air reconaissance - HUMINT, usually local resistance- which was risky and not 100% accurate. Even then, given lack of precision of WWII bombers, it was difficult to actually hit smaller workshops; one of reasons why dispersion was generally successfull in Germany and partially Japan. Now if Ukraine will try to disperse its industry, it will face much harder task. Keeping security is way more difficult in the era of Iphones, social media and internet. It is damn difficult to cut usage of cellpones by soldiers in actual trenches alone; infinitelly more so behind frontiles. Also, there is little doubt muscovites have many eyes in Ukraine itself- SBU can crush traitors constantly, but the more smaller production places ones have = more probability they will be discovered. It takes a text message or small chat on myriad different media (which are not regulated nor cut off between UA/RU citizens) and 2 min surf on Google Maps for Russians to find exact location...then coordinates can go to muscovite military directly, almost in real time. Add that modern missiles, even crappy ones from Soviet times, still have way more likehood of accuratelly hitting their small targets than Allied planes from WWII ever had. Than there are economic and strategic issues we discussed previously. I would like very much if Europe would manage to fund long-term, dispersed and almost self-sufficent industry in Ukraine itself, but frankly doubt it will be possible on levels of WWII. Different circumstances. Note it does not apply to drones and their parts, which are novelty enough to not even being registered as military help. Edited January 5 by Beleg85 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 51 minutes ago, danfrodo said: If Trump gets back in power he will be full-on pro-Putin. I am saying this based on nothing more concrete than all of Trump's actions and words to this point. Oh, and the fact that he knows how much RU-funded propaganda helps him. I am always confused when people think Trump would do otherwise, when the evidence for him helping Putin is so overwhelming. Note: this not at all directed at you Butschi. Your post just reminded me of this rather odd thing where folks think somehow Trump would keep supporting UKR. Hell we could be seeing another speakership vote in a few weeks so Trump may not be the primary concern so much as continued dysfunction in congress. Edited January 5 by sburke 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 24 minutes ago, sburke said: Hell we could be seeing another speakership vote in a few weeks so Trump may not be the primary concern so much as continued dysfunction in congress. Hopefully we'll get another person of reason and sound judgement who also thinks earth is 6000 years, amongst the many wise beliefs of mike johnston. But maybe we'll get an improvement as the current speaker is somewhat flawed as he thinks the earth is round and goes around the sun. American taliban. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Kraft said: And Business hates risks, what would help business? Government commitment to a clear definable goal, which hasnt been offered for 2 years, as politicans stay far away from anything definable so they can hedge their bets and drop out if stuff moves sideways. This new vote of confidence in a self sufficient Ukraine without its largest assistance provider will surely help quell investors fears that their capital investments wont be devalued by cruise missiles or unfavorable peace treaties. Just going to pull on this one because frankly this is becoming a waste of time - we sent one dooms day cultist on vaycay and we get another right behind him. But let’s unpack your expertise on reconstruction business for just as second. Hmm, now I wonder just how scared US and western businesses were in Iraq and Afghanistan. We poured hundreds of billions into those two countries and western companies lined up to get in on it…saw em with my own eyes. But for “reasons” cruise missiles are somehow scarier than getting one’s head sliced off by insurgents or IED’d. Let me as blunt as I can be - you do not know what you are talking about. Nothing in what the US just said points to abandonment of Ukraine. Nor would a shift toward self-sustainment somehow chase off all support. Why? Because money talks. It actually makes a lot of sense and has been the long term playbook for partners globally since the 90’s. But clearly you are in the Zeleban camp where everything is falling apart and the end is inevitable. I strongly support what we are doing in this war. I support a free independent and secure Ukraine. Ukrainian resistance and then defence will go down in history as one of the great military actions. But every time someone from your end of things comes in here and plays this same old song - I do not want to call my MP and demand greater support for Ukraine. I want to call them and say we should “cut and run” because if this is what Ukrainian steadfast resolve looks like we are likely backing another bad partner. Now, I know that you, nor Zeleban represent your people. For some reason we are collecting these types but I see Ukraine fighting and defending itself under extreme duress everyday. I see people make sacrifices and staring into that abyss with resolve and determination. Pull yourself together and honour what they are doing. You do them no service coming here and pushing this sort of outright disinformation. I honestly miss kraze at this point. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sojourner Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) This looks like someone had fun - mine-laying in Russia. "HUR said it had received intelligence that Russian commanders planned to inspect military positions in the Gayvoron district of Belgorod Oblast, some 80 kilometers west of the city of Belgorod and the location of the May 2023 incursions. The inspections were allegedly due to complaints from Russian soldiers about poor conditions in the area, according to the report. HUR said it mined the only road in the area and attacked a Russian platoon, sharing a video of parts of the assault. The number of casualties inflicted is still being determined, the HUR said." https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-january-5-2024/ Heard a rumor earlier that Gerasimov was killed/injured, but probably just that (a rumor). Edited January 6 by Sojourner Found video of incursion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing 88's Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) 10 hours ago, The_Capt said: So "what have you done for me lately"....that is what you are going to go with? The US is somehow your own personal war valet. What is it with you and the taglines straight out of a Russian IO playbook? Let me just say that from the beginning of his posting in this thread, his style has been just a wee bit suspicious. I have handed him some likes previously too. However, I have finally placed this person on my ignore list. Although other valued posters quoting his posts makes it almost a useless feature to use. It does help a bit though. Oh well, it feels good to use it when I think it is required. Edited January 6 by Blazing 88's 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing 88's Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 hours ago, Tux said: ...To be blunt, people in Western Europe don't give a solitary, flying **** about Russia. They don't. No-one talks about Russia, worries about Russia or even less considers Russia's strength when they go to the ballot box. Ask people in the UK about Russia and they will talk about Salisbury, the World Cup and the ongoing war with Ukraine. Some of them might remember 2014. A few more will remember the Kursk tragedy because the Russians turned down British help to rescue the crew. Beyond that it's probably all Yeltsin and pre-90s stuff. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Operating one of these is approaching the same level of suicidality associated with a TOS-1. I suspect that may be because TOS-1s are more or less extinct, and these are the next highest priority. Or perhaps the Russians are pushing them forward to do the same basic job of reducing strongpoints, which almost amounts to ther same thing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 hours ago, Beleg85 said: WWII analogies have its limits. One missed factor here is that during WWII continent was literally shut deaf along warring sides lines. One could find an industrial target worth to bomb in Germany or occupied Europe in two ways: - Air reconaissance - HUMINT, usually local resistance- which was risky and not 100% accurate. Even then, given lack of precision of WWII bombers, it was difficult to actually hit smaller workshops; one of reasons why dispersion was generally successfull in Germany and partially Japan. Now if Ukraine will try to disperse its industry, it will face much harder task. Keeping security is way more difficult in the era of Iphones, social media and internet. It is damn difficult to cut usage of cellpones by soldiers in actual trenches alone; infinitelly more so behind frontiles. Also, there is little doubt muscovites have many eyes in Ukraine itself- SBU can crush traitors constantly, but the more smaller production places ones have = more probability they will be discovered. It takes a text message or small chat on myriad different media (which are not regulated nor cut off between UA/RU citizens) and 2 min surf on Google Maps for Russians to find exact location...then coordinates can go to muscovite military directly, almost in real time. Add that modern missiles, even crappy ones from Soviet times, still have way more likehood of accuratelly hitting their small targets than Allied planes from WWII ever had. Than there are economic and strategic issues we discussed previously. I would like very much if Europe would manage to fund long-term, dispersed and almost self-sufficent industry in Ukraine itself, but frankly doubt it will be possible on levels of WWII. Different circumstances. Note it does not apply to drones and their parts, which are novelty enough to not even being registered as military help. Yup, I am painfully aware of the shortcomings of analogies back to WW2. Doesn't stop me from doing it though Everything you said is true, and yet it doesn't contradict my primary point. And that is Russia has had the opportunity to cause significant damage to Ukraine's defense infrastructure over the past 2 years (including starting with a lot of HUMINT) and yet... they are still cranking out BTR-4s and other things. Clearly Russia does not have the capability to do as much damage to Ukraine's industry as it does hapless civilians. For sure operating a defense factory in Ukraine is riskier than operating it in Poland. GIven. But what are the real chances of any one particular facility being successful struck by Russian missiles/drones? Very low. The next question to ask is if this is likely to change. Maybe yes, maybe no. And the maybe yes is not necessarily a change for the worse for Ukraine. Therefore, the notion that building a military factory in Ukraine is an assured insurance claim and corporate asset writedown is not supported by the facts. As the old Capitalist philosophy goes, reward is proportional to risk. Someone who gets into Ukraine this year could stand to reap benefits for decades. Even if something crashed through the roof and blows stuff up. It's a risk some companies will take, especially if underwritten by public sector funds. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sojourner Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) Ukraine is now using drones to teach Russians how to fly. Meet ‘Johnny,’ A Special Fuze That Helps Ukraine’s Drones Drop Mines Behind Russian Lines Meet ‘Johnny,’ A Special Fuze That Helps Ukraine’s Drones Drop Mines Behind Russian Lines (msn.com) ...drones are doing the delicate work that, before, was the responsibility of human scouts who would sneak toward Russian lines—usually under the cover of darkness—and seed minefields by hand. Minelaying is dangerous work when the objective is to lay a minefield between Russian positions and nearby Ukrainian positions. It’s practically suicidal work when the objective is to lay a minefield behind Russian lines. But not for a drone. ...the munition-of-choice for drone minelaying is the Soviet-vintage PTM-3 anti-tank mine, which features an unusual boxy shape and four pounds of explosives. The Ukrainians modify the PTM-3s with custom fuzes they reportedly call “johnnies.” “These fuzes are equipped with a gyroscope, accelerometer and magnetometer that activate the mine when it is hit or moved,” CIT explained. “They can also trigger when armored vehicles, or even soldiers carrying weapons or body armor, pass nearby.” Edited January 6 by Sojourner 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Quote https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-5-2024 Russian forces may intensify efforts to capture Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, in the coming weeks and have a grouping of forces in the area that appears to be less degraded than Russian groupings responsible for offensive efforts elsewhere in eastern Ukraine. Looks like the Russians are psyching up to what breaks for who if they start another push. I see mobik corpsicles in quantity. https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/c081912b042b8088e20a39bcd8cc184162d68b6f701c5fdeb55684cf8029d98f#detailIndex5 Highs there not predicted to break zero degrees celsius for the foreseeable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/chinatalk/id1289062927?i=1000640696885 Interview with the Pentagon's AI person. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sojourner Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Gee, what can't Ukraine do with a drone? Previously we saw them use drones to take prisoners, now they're using them to free prisoners. Pasting the text here since the site is a quagmire of ads. A prisoner of war tied up in Russian trenches believed this was the end as he was dragged to enemy territory – until a drone came to save him. Footage shared by Volodymyr Zelensky’s air assault forces shows the incredible rescue of the soldier. In a video published on Telegram on Tuesday, he can be seen in a dugout, with his legs and arms wrapped in rope. Ukraine’s 95th brigade had deployed three crews of drones to help neighbouring units being stormed by Russians. As one of the operators approached the area, he spotted the captured soldier and began flashing his lights at him, trying to get his attention. It was a miracle he had survived at all as the Ukrainian forces had just bombed the trenches, the military said. As soon as the PoW realised the drone was Ukrainian’s, he began following it as it led him to safety. ‘The paratroopers were working in an area controlled by the enemy,’ a statement from the 95th brigade said. Many invaders were successfully eliminated. When the Russians were destroyed, they noticed a Ukrainian serviceman tied up in the trench. It was a fighter from another brigade. ‘Our drone operator with the call sign Kevin began to attract the attention of that captive – flashing lights on the Mavic drone. ‘The guy on the ground got his bearings, realised that it was his own and started following our drone.’ Running away from the scene, the PoW was faced with another Russian soldier, but the drone dropped its last grenade, killing him on the spot. Video of the rescue: https://metro.co.uk/video/captured-ukrainian-soldier-details-unbelievable-escape-russian-trenches-using-drone-3093593/?ito=vjs-link 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Kadyrov is just too f'n weird. Kadyrov Begs US to Lift Sanctions on His Horses, Offers Kyiv POWs in Return (msn.com) Russia's Ramzan Kadyrov once again demanded that the United States lift sanctions against members of his family—and his horses—this time offering Ukrainian prisoners of war in exchange, Russian state media reported on Friday. Kadyrov, the head of Chechnya and Russian President Vladimir Putin's loyal ally, made the offer via former American intelligence officer Scott Ritter, who was visiting Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. It is not immediately clear why Kadyrov decided to reach out to U.S. authorities via Ritter, a disgraced former UN weapons inspector and Marine Corps analyst, who is also a convicted sex offender. Ritter was guilty in 2011 of unlawful contact with a minor, among other charges, and served a year and a half in a U.S. prison between 2012 and 2014. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Sojourner said: Gee, what can't Ukraine do with a drone? Previously we saw them use drones to take prisoners, now they're using them to free prisoners. Pasting the text here since the site is a quagmire of ads. A prisoner of war tied up in Russian trenches believed this was the end as he was dragged to enemy territory – until a drone came to save him. Footage shared by Volodymyr Zelensky’s air assault forces shows the incredible rescue of the soldier. In a video published on Telegram on Tuesday, he can be seen in a dugout, with his legs and arms wrapped in rope. Ukraine’s 95th brigade had deployed three crews of drones to help neighbouring units being stormed by Russians. As one of the operators approached the area, he spotted the captured soldier and began flashing his lights at him, trying to get his attention. It was a miracle he had survived at all as the Ukrainian forces had just bombed the trenches, the military said. As soon as the PoW realised the drone was Ukrainian’s, he began following it as it led him to safety. ‘The paratroopers were working in an area controlled by the enemy,’ a statement from the 95th brigade said. Many invaders were successfully eliminated. When the Russians were destroyed, they noticed a Ukrainian serviceman tied up in the trench. It was a fighter from another brigade. ‘Our drone operator with the call sign Kevin began to attract the attention of that captive – flashing lights on the Mavic drone. ‘The guy on the ground got his bearings, realised that it was his own and started following our drone.’ Running away from the scene, the PoW was faced with another Russian soldier, but the drone dropped its last grenade, killing him on the spot. Video of the rescue: https://metro.co.uk/video/captured-ukrainian-soldier-details-unbelievable-escape-russian-trenches-using-drone-3093593/?ito=vjs-link Amazing 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67659275 Ukraine war: Atesh, the group spying on Russians in occupied Crimea Operatives say their information has aided high-profile Ukrainian strikes on Crimea, such as hits on a Russian landing ship and submarine - the Minsk and Rostov-on-Don - and an attack on the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in September 2023... Edited January 6 by Kinophile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Expenditure rates past and present. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tux Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 59 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said: Expenditure rates past and present. What I find astonishing about this is that Ukraine have got anywhere near matching Russian use rates (when on the attack, at least). I mean, this is the Russian Armed Forces we’re talking about: Fire-hosing artillery shells at the enemy is pretty much the bedrock of their entire military philosophy. I’d love to know more about how Ukraine are using their artillery. Are they trying to use it as bluntly as the Russians or are they being more surgical with their fires and the near-parity in offensive use rates is more about successful CB and attrition of the Russian system generally? If the former, is that due to a conservative regression to their familiar Soviet doctrine or is it rationally justified as the best way to fight this war? How is tube availability affecting fire rates vs ammunition supply? I wonder how low Russian use rates would be without North Korean ammunition? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 https://www.berlingske.dk/politik/dansk-f-16-donation-bliver-flere-maaneder-forsinket-ukrainerne-er-ikke 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBJ Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18 hours ago, Kraft said: I am not knowledgeable on internal US politics Agree I try hard not to assume I know more about a country and it's politics than the people that live there. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBJ Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 hours ago, Kinophile said: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67659275 Ukraine war: Atesh, the group spying on Russians in occupied Crimea Operatives say their information has aided high-profile Ukrainian strikes on Crimea, such as hits on a Russian landing ship and submarine - the Minsk and Rostov-on-Don - and an attack on the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in September 2023... You beat me to it @Kinophile 'Viva La Resistance!' or however you say that in Ukrainian. What caught my attention, and will cause me to dig a little more, were: 1. Description of resistance operations in Crimea 2. The assertion Russians are a majority in Crimea 3. The ethnic aspect, Crimean Tartars as resistors 4. The synergy between Atesh and Ukrainian SOF operations 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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