How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

First time I've heard about it, recently opened special anti drone school in the US military.

Although this is only for 1000 soldiers /year. 

 

Edited January 3 by Kraft

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

 2024's funniest put-down so far. The threshold has been raised... 

Sorry @dan/california, but... 

I admit it, it is very funny...  

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/lands-ukraine-must-liberate

The January 2022 Lines Are Far Easier to Defend Efficiently than the December 2023 Lines

Ukraine’s borders and the line of contact between Ukraine and Russia before the full-scale invasion of 2022 were long—about 3,120 kilometers—but included large areas offering considerable defensive depth, especially in the northeast. Ukraine will always need to defend its northern border, opposite Belarus and then Russia, very close to the border itself on a west-to-east line extending from the Polish border to around Chernihiv. Kyiv is only about 100 kilometers from the border, and essential ground lines of communication run through Rivne and Lutsk at about the same distance. Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, is even closer to the international border and affords no depth at all. The Russian occupation in 2014 of eastern Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and Crimea brought several other important Ukrainian cities under permanent threat. Mariupol was almost right on the line of contact in 2022.

 

 

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-2-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin identified the West as Russia’s “enemy” and implied that Russia is fighting in Ukraine in order to defeat the West.
• Putin’s framing of his war in Ukraine as a Russian struggle against the West – and not Ukraine – indicates that he does not intend to negotiate in good faith with Ukraine and is setting information conditions aimed at convincing the West to betray Ukraine through negotiations.
• Putin may be expanding his war aims in Ukraine to include confrontation with the West in an effort to set conditions for permanent Russian military buildup and to justify high battlefield sacrifices.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed Ukraine’s need for urgent Western support to protect both Ukraine and the rest of Europe in an interview with the Economist published on January 1.
• Russian forces conducted another massive series of drone and missile strikes against deep rear areas in Ukraine between December 31 and January 2, one of which used a strike package similar to that used on December 29, and to which Ukrainian forces appear to be adapting.
• Western provision of air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine remains crucial for Ukraine as Russian forces will likely attempt to adapt to Ukrainian air defense capabilities.
• Russian officials publicly defined the goals for Russia’s 2024 chairmanship of both BRICS and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), articulating how the Kremlin may intend to use these organizations to fulfill its foreign policy objectives this year.
• The Norwegian government announced on January 1 that it is permitting Norwegian defense companies to sell weapons and defense-related products directly to the Ukrainian government.
• The Turkish government announced on January 2 that it will not allow the United Kingdom (UK) to transport two mine hunting ships to Ukraine via the Turkish Straits “as long as the war continues.”
• Russian society continues to reckon with the impacts of increasing anti-migrant sentiment amid Russian authorities’ ongoing efforts to systematically disenfranchise migrant communities within Russia.
• Russian forces made marginal confirmed advances along the Svatove-Kreminna line, northwest and southwest of Bakhmut, northwest of Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City.
• The Russian military command may be seeking avenues to re-pardon recidivists who previously fought in the war in Ukraine in an apparent effort to maintain Russia's ability to leverage convict recruits as a manpower resource.
• Russian occupation authorities are restricting and likely monitoring internet communications ahead of the March 2024 presidential elections.

 

• ISW is spooling up like they mean it after the Holidays, two major pieces on the Ukraine war. They seem to think Putin is going double down on a losing bet AGAIN. 

[Carolus]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

• ISW is spooling up like they mean it after the Holidays, two major pieces on the Ukraine war. They seem to think Putin is going double down on a losing bet AGAIN. 

Such excellent analyses, to be ignored by 99% of Western policy makers. 

Who knew military experts would become the next climatologists. 

[Yet]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I think the major strategic mistake, and it was entirely foreseeable, was thinking that if we built the UA to look like a western military that it would prevail.  First off I am not even sure a western military would prevail.  Second trying to bolt the UA into one, while it is fighting a war is a major rookie mistake.  I was very concerned when everyone got scope eye on tanks and IFV which all cost money and take up weight.  Artillery, AD, unmanned was in the mix but it wasn’t politically high profile so we pushed the heavy stuff.  And of course we did it in a mixed up mess.  There was no centralized control of coord of the support mission.

So rather than focusing on game changers and cheap disposable systems, like UAS and self-loitering, we spent billions in sending tanks and IFVs that while useful and better than nothing, were  not deterministic on a modern battlefield.  We compounded the problem by sending complex and logistically heavy stuff, in mixed fleets, which made the UAs job harder.  We should have seen that fast, light, cheap, dispersed and many were what we needed in this war.  Ammo for PGM was doing more than a freakin tank ever could.

Now we are playing catch-up.  The good news is that the stuff we sent looks like it can do defence fine.  But we wanted rapid offence and we sent exactly the wrong hardware for this war to make that happen.

Very true from a military punt of view.

on the other hand... (from a lobbyist point of view). Western nations got dedicated to the UA war by sending their own stuff. France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, all got dedicated into this war by sending their high end stuff. if they would have sent only money or some cartboard for drones, these nations would never feel so attached to the war. Ofc if summer offensive would have been very succesfull.. think about what stories would be up to pull all these nations head deep inside.

 

[Butschi]

35 minutes ago, Yet said:

Very true from a military punt of view.

on the other hand... (from a lobbyist point of view). Western nations got dedicated to the UA war by sending their own stuff. France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, all got dedicated into this war by sending their high end stuff. if they would have sent only money or some cartboard for drones, these nations would never feel so attached to the war. Ofc if summer offensive would have been very succesfull.. think about what stories would be up to pull all these nations head deep inside.

 

I don't think that is entirely true, not for Germany, at least. Sure, the yellow press tried stories like "How our Leopards are going to win the war" but the majority of people was against sending tanks for a variety of reasons and it took quite some time to convince them. While we are generally proud that our industry is capable of producing some of the best weapons in the world (much like we are proud that we produce the best cars, of course), weapons exports are usually frowned upon.

Nah, I think we would have been happy with letting the US send Abrams and paying part of the bill. And then send more Iris-T while watching reports on TV of children who can now safely go to school.

We still hear comments that, after all, civilians suffer most in the war, mainstream media still prefer to interview random people in a pedestrian zone instead of reporting more detailed than "Russians are intensifying their attacks". And almost nobody cares how our Leopards are performing.

[Yet]

14 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I don't think that is entirely true, not for Germany, at least. Sure, the yellow press tried stories like "How our Leopards are going to win the war" but the majority of people was against sending tanks for a variety of reasons and it took quite some time to convince them. While we are generally proud that our industry is capable of producing some of the best weapons in the world (much like we are proud that we produce the best cars, of course), weapons exports are usually frowned upon.

Nah, I think we would have been happy with letting the US send Abrams and paying part of the bill. And then send more Iris-T while watching reports on TV of children who can now safely go to school.

We still hear comments that, after all, civilians suffer most in the war, mainstream media still prefer to interview random people in a pedestrian zone instead of reporting more detailed than "Russians are intensifying their attacks". And almost nobody cares how our Leopards are performing.

I never spoke of Leopards, nor of the average German citizen. We might (wanna) think that politicians do everything for the perception of its inhabitants... but that is wildly untrue. 

Its a game of politicians and lobbyists, where politicians want to hear a good story and want to feel good and strong.  Where they (often wrongly) assume looking good might reap future benefits and where the most powerful people are reduced to weak humans of flesh, blood with all their flaws exploited, while it makes them feel like the Terminator. They dont always act for the people... they mostly act out of their gut feeling which is highly influencable, covered by a mild fear for negative media (or action group) outings which is a main weapon. 

There are different types of politicians on how they best can be influenced. But with your silverware on the table the poker games gets a lot more interesting, and it gets a lot harder to fold when youre not losing. 

[Kinophile]

 

Edited January 3 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

17 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Ukrainian outdoor, strikeball and military gears brand M-TAC officially claimed one of Russian missiles today hit their storage and one of workshops. 

M-TAC is exellent "self-made" brand rised since 2014, when was critical lack of modern military gears... These guys, many of which were strikeball players in short terms could launch a productions of wide assortment of different around-military stuff of own design. They have been leraning and year-to-year enhancing quality of own goods. Of course, they are not 5.11, but if you want to buy in Ukraine any element of military or outdoor clothes, footwear, accessories of good quality and not for cosmic money - this is M-TAC. Dozen thousands soldiers were equipped by them for these 9 years. 

I also buy something of their civil clothes and boots and always found its very suitable. Fortunately, most of their production are made on Chineese factories, but some in Ukraine too. I hope, this incident can't seriously hit their business

 

Huh, I have m-tac pants, for on set. Great gear. Didn't realize they were UKR! 

Edited January 3 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

Really? 

 

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Yet said:

Very true from a military punt of view.

on the other hand... (from a lobbyist point of view). Western nations got dedicated to the UA war by sending their own stuff. France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, all got dedicated into this war by sending their high end stuff. if they would have sent only money or some cartboard for drones, these nations would never feel so attached to the war. Ofc if summer offensive would have been very succesfull.. think about what stories would be up to pull all these nations head deep inside.

 

I am not sure this theory works to be honest.  Maybe for the US who have recognizable military brands based on manufacturing.  But for a lot of nations like Canada the average citizen cannot tell what is “ours” or some other nations - we sent US M777 and German Leopards,  Swedish ATGs and a bunch of gear we did not manufacture or even hold.  A lot of nations are in the same boat.  Unlike the US a lot of nations do not feel their military equipment as an extension of identity.

Of course even if they do feel it an extension of their identity this cuts both ways.  The summer offensive did not go as planned so now “Ukraine is screwing it up with our stuff.”  This turns the public opinion against the war while similar failures in Soviet equipment create less of an impact.

Finally, it is a war after all and the military point of view should have primacy if one wants to win.  If some political spin doctor is pushing for a freakin car club afternoon parking lot of military gear just so nations can feel “invested”, they are programming in failure that is simply going to bite them badly later - and the military advice should reflect that.

[Kraft]

Some good news from me for a change

Quote

Did Ukrainians actually start donating less in 2023?

The thesis that " Ukrainians are tired, support the Armed Forces of Ukraine less and so on" was promoted very actively, not without the help of pro-Moscow throw-ins. Simple narratives that target "society's despair."

 

But is it really so?

According to the research of the Charities Aid Foundation, which forms a "charity rating", in 2022 Ukraine took "10th place" among 119 countries, and in 2023 it was already "2nd place" .

According to researchers, at least once in 2023 , 78% of adult Ukrainians helped strangers , 70% donated money, 37% volunteered (this is not only "military volunteerism"). Now skeptics will say, yes, that these studies, everyone complains that the meetings are not closed. Then to the other numbers

According to a study by Monobank, in 2023 Ukrainians donated 27.4 billion hryvnias through the bank. This is 3 times more than what Ukrainians donated in 2022 , when the amount was 8.5 billion hryvnias. The data were taken from the banking of funds and individuals, where there were more than 2 donors. There is still a percentage of unverified fees, so the number is even higher.

Moreover, according to Monobank data , the number of benefactors increased from 3 million in 2022 to 5.7 million in 2023. The size of the average donation also increased from UAH 258 to UAH 349 . The average size of the donation grew more than the percentage of inflation in the country, which is also important.

And according to data from Opendatabot, June 2023 (the beginning of the offensive of our troops) became a record among donations . This month alone, Ukrainians transferred UAH 8.4 billion to the three largest Funds.

That is, the thesis, which was actively promoted by the enemy and our short-sighted media/politicians/"experts", that "Ukrainians relaxed and waited on the sofa for the success of the Armed Forces" in the financial dimension is not true . These statements were either a method of IPSO to divide society, or a method of individual fools to catch hype through negativity for their popularity.

So probably a problem of trust in specific meeting organizers? But fasting is not a reason to relax in 2024. Wars are won not only by the army, but by society

 

[LongLeftFlank]

I've backed off posting a little cuz work, probably to the relief of some here.

But this piece, while not directly war related, is interesting, as China's ability to innovate, refine and mass-manufacture/export is a key megatrend to keep tracking soberly (i.e. without either exaggerating or dismissing):

https://tphuang.substack.com/p/ai-approach-differences-between-china

People often comment that China has turned to mature chip fabs as a result of October sanctions. I would say they always had plans to massively expand mature chip productions. The market for these “mature chips” in future AI controlled consumer electronics product and machines are enormous...

China is at the forefront of consumer electronics and robotics product, so its focus on LLMs are driven by how to make its consumer electronics and robotics product smarter. So, making hard tech better.

American tech companies are the leaders of search, e-commerce, social media and apps. So, its focus on LLMs are focused on how to make these soft tech products better...

As many have observed here, the Ukraine war already has the makings of a test-bed and laboratory for next generation miltech, much like the Spanish Civil War (albeit without the Condor Legion/Italian CTV).

PS: I'm not suggesting 'glorified autocomplete' (LLM) extrapolates directly to fully autonomous drones or slaughterdogs. But the general focus of Chinese industry on using AI programming to enhance the performance of physical devices was an interesting insight to me.

Edited January 3 by LongLeftFlank

[Beleg85]

It seems muscovites revived Smersh...or somebody just made a happening.

Also, record of clearing the trenches:

 

Edited January 3 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

58 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

It seems muscovites revived Smersh...or somebody just made a happening.

 

SMERSH in 2024? Good god, I wish Ian Fleming was around to see this.

Maybe we could get some new James Bond novels.

 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I've backed off posting a little cuz work, probably to the relief of some here.

But this piece, while not directly war related, is interesting, as China's ability to innovate, refine and mass-manufacture/export is a key megatrend to keep tracking soberly (i.e. without either exaggerating or dismissing):

https://tphuang.substack.com/p/ai-approach-differences-between-china

People often comment that China has turned to mature chip fabs as a result of October sanctions. I would say they always had plans to massively expand mature chip productions. The market for these “mature chips” in future AI controlled consumer electronics product and machines are enormous...

China is at the forefront of consumer electronics and robotics product, so its focus on LLMs are driven by how to make its consumer electronics and robotics product smarter. So, making hard tech better.

American tech companies are the leaders of search, e-commerce, social media and apps. So, its focus on LLMs are focused on how to make these soft tech products better...

As many have observed here, the Ukraine war already has the makings of a test-bed and laboratory for next generation miltech, much like the Spanish Civil War (albeit without the Condor Legion/Italian CTV).

PS: I'm not suggesting 'glorified autocomplete' (LLM) extrapolates directly to fully autonomous drones or slaughterdogs. But the general focus of Chinese industry on using AI programming to enhance the performance of physical devices was an interesting insight to me.

I am not sure the distinction between Chinese and US focus on AI development is correct.

LLMs are hip and trendy (for very good reasons) and so everyone who does anything AI looks for ways to leverage LLMs for whatever products they have. One main driver of AI development is autonomous driving where Waymo (Google) and Cruise (GM) are top players and US based. Google smartphones use AI for a lot of stuff, too. On the other hand, China doesn't only do consumer electronics and hardware. They have huge social media platforms (that just aren't used widely outside of China), and of course they use AI for social scoring (in other words, spying on their people).

Btw, no idea if LLMs specifically are useful for drone operations. As the first L in LLM implies, those models have billions of parameters and are therefore quite resource hungry. So I guess you either use stripped down versions or edge computing (meaning that your computation heavy stuff runs in a computing center and only data collection is done on the device itself).

[danfrodo]

6 hours ago, Kinophile said:

 

OK, I'll just admit I don't get it.  This indicates UKR makes new BTR4 w some kind of new turret on top?  

[Harmon Rabb]

Ukrainian fighter pilots will begin their training in Denmark with Norwegian F-16`s (regjeringen.no)

Quote

Defence minister Bjørn Arild Gram visited the airfield in Bodø this week, where the remaining preparations for the F-16s are being conducted before a mission. Norway is presenting two F-16 fighter jets that will train and educate Ukrainian personnel in Denmark. Norway is also sending down ten instructors that will aid in the training and education.

The contribution of F-16 from the military sector is nothing more than impressive, states the defence minister.

The Norwegian government has decided that it will aid Ukraine in developing a modern air force, with the long term goal for Ukraine to establish a lasting defence without the need for international support. This will be of vital importance to European security and stability. This aid will happen trough different frames of international support lead by the US, Denmark and The Netherlands. Norway has decided to follow Denmark, Belgium and The Netherlands and will also be donating F-16s to Ukraine, and the training and education of pilots is an important part of the donation.

Ukrainian pilots have experience with a different fighter jet and will now be trained to use the F-16 systems. At the same time, Ukrainian technicians will be trained in Denmark, USA and Belgium. Allied partners and states will work day and night with the goal of establishing a lasting and modern air force for Ukraine, says Gram.

Training of pilots will be done in Denmark

The Norwegian Air Force has already presented instructors that will take part in the training, which will take place in Skyldstrup. This program is multinational and will be led by Denmark. - The span of this deployment to Denmark will be decided through dialog with the other partners of this program, says the defence minister.

Ukraine has for a considerable period requested support for the establishment of a modern air force. This is necessary for the country to ensure its own security. Such an independent Ukrainian capability will also be crucial for broader European stability and security.

 

[Seedorf81]

A little bit of somewhat positive news:

230 Ukrainian prisoners of war coming home, in exchange for 248 Russians.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67872417

[Vet 0369]

19 hours ago, Sojourner said:

Maybe they need to return to the style of manual used when the M-16 was first issued...

 

Not sure where this fits in, sub-FM perhaps? 

This was exactly the same format that the U.S. Army used for line maintenance “hints” for the gas turbine engines in tanks and Blackhawk helicopters in the 1980s that I referenced above. I don’t remember what her name was. They used two depictions, one black and one white. It’s really disgraceful that they had to use “comics” to train the soldiers to even maintain their weapons!

[Splinty]

11 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

This was exactly the same format that the U.S. Army used for line maintenance “hints” for the gas turbine engines in tanks and Blackhawk helicopters in the 1980s that I referenced above. I don’t remember what her name was. They used two depictions, one black and one white. It’s really disgraceful that they had to use “comics” to train the soldiers to even maintain their weapons!

Those comics are NOT manuals. EVERYTHING the military does has an associated manual for it. Those "comics" merely contained hints on how to use the system better. My Army units would receive a box of them every few months, but we NEVER used them for training or maintenance. We would use the associated Technical or Field Manual.

 

Edited January 3 by Splinty

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

A little bit of somewhat positive news:

230 Ukrainian prisoners of war coming home, in exchange for 248 Russians.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67872417

Whoa, that's the first one in a long time as far as I know.

Looks like Russia is still having to do 1:1 exchange.  That's a good sign that Russia doesn't feel it has leverage to make it more favorable. 

Though on second hand it looks really bad for Russia to get back more than Ukraine.  Gives the impression that Ukraine has a LOT more Russian prisoners and Ukraine feels each one of their soldiers is worth more than a Russian.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

19 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I think the major strategic mistake, and it was entirely foreseeable, was thinking that if we built the UA to look like a western military that it would prevail.  

To be fair, it took even us a good year to figure out mass as a concept was dead.  Russian incompetency and Ukrainian shortages masked that fact for a while.

Either way, the war as it is being fought still requires an insane number of vehicles and artillery to keep things going.  Though the West would likely have to provide less if it provided more drones and deep strike weapons.

Steve

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

To be fair, it took even us a good year to figure out mass as a concept was dead

Everywhere but a spunky little wargame thread in the middle of internet nowhere.  We had a bead on this by Apr ‘22…or at least that is how I remember it.

[kimbosbread]

4 hours ago, Butschi said:

Btw, no idea if LLMs specifically are useful for drone operations. As the first L in LLM implies, those models have billions of parameters and are therefore quite resource hungry. So I guess you either use stripped down versions or edge computing (meaning that your computation heavy stuff runs in a computing center and only data collection is done on the device itself).

The killer application for LLMs is the man-machine interface between increasingly complex systems. If you can order your loitering munitions and UGVs the same way you can other soldiers, and they can communicate back to you, that simplifies a lot of things. Imagine simplifying the targetting for a NLOS weapon: I hear there are some tanks on a road 10km north of here. Go kill them.