How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

What are your predictions for the war in Ukraine in 2024?

Here are mine:

Increasing Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian towns and cities.

Russia will take Avdiivka before spring, and also close the Robotyne pocket. Then the frontlines will not move much more before summer.

Ukraine will attempt a new offensive in early summer, and it will be in the north, east of Kharkiv, where Russian defensive lines seem less strong. The aim will not be to liberate key territory but to cause maximum losses and for the political objective to show Western sponsors that the war can still be won.

The drone war will enter a new stage where the off-the-shelves commercial drones are replaced with mass produced purpose built drones, and the numbers of drone attacks will increase massively. Instead of single drone attacks, we might see several working in cooperation. Increased use of drone-dropped tear gas.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[chuckdyke]

Massive increase of fake propaganda You Tube movies.

[billbindc]

16 hours ago, Carolus said:

If some politically savy Chinese expats are to be believed, the view of Chinese leadership on Russia is actually very different than what we in the West would believe based on rational parameters.

Despite the incredibly obvious massive power difference in favour of China, the CCP sees Russia still as their big daddy, in terms of ideological tradition. They yearn for father's approval and present him what they drew in kindergarten today. They cower when uncle Putin stomps his foot and feel relieved when he bestows them with a kind word.

It is strange, but it is apparently a thing. Something something communist psychoanalysis and fatherlessness.

That *is* strange given that China’s disenchantment with Soviet tutelage began in the 50’s and was fully formed by 1960. 

[Butschi]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Every time we discuss this I bring up Serbia because that's the best example there is.  Serbian resolve to keep genocide going was not as strong as it was to keep their country from being knocked back into the 19th Century.

It is the best example because it is not an example of indiscriminate bombing, I think. Precision strikes on infrastructure allow people to make the rational decision to stop or pay the costs.

By contrast, having their livelihood destroyed and their loved ones killed rarely makes people weigh costs against gains. They just want revenge.

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

What are your predictions for the war in Ukraine in 2024?

Here are mine:

Increasing Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian towns and cities.

Russia will take Avdiivka before spring, and also close the Robotyne pocket. Then the frontlines will not move much more before summer.

Ukraine will attempt a new offensive in early summer, and it will be in the north, east of Kharkiv, where Russian defensive lines seem less strong. The aim will not be to liberate key territory but to cause maximum losses and for the political objective to show Western sponsors that the war can still be won.

The drone war will enter a new stage where the off-the-shelves commercial drones are replaced with mass produced purpose built drones, and the numbers of drone attacks will increase massively. Instead of single drone attacks, we might see several working in cooperation. Increased use of drone-dropped tear gas.

No predictions, I'll leave those for the tarot card layers ;-). But I hope for renewed, stable, support for the Ukrainian effort on both military, economical and political level. 

Although I guess we'll indeed see more advanced on the UAS field, hopefully with the advantage to the Ukr side. 

I wish everyone here a happy and healthy 2024!

[chuckdyke]

32 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

I wish everyone here a happy and healthy 2024!

Same to you, end of the month we say goodbye to Australia. A healthy 2024 for us. 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

It is the best example because it is not an example of indiscriminate bombing, I think. Precision strikes on infrastructure allow people to make the rational decision to stop or pay the costs.

By contrast, having their livelihood destroyed and their loved ones killed rarely makes people weigh costs against gains. They just want revenge

Yep. 

Also, ref Rotterdam, who the only reason it worked was that Belgium had no useful defense or means of striking back. 

If a nation feels it can defend or at least improve its defences then it will do so and the morale impact is lost. Germany, Canada Britain in WW2, QED. 

Russia absolutely can absorb and defend, so zero chance of any morale impact. Ukraine now has the defences and has the will. But it's dependent on western supply. 

So Russia is trying use up that supply with increased and sustained rate of fire.

But even that is not doing much because Russia doesn't seem to have enough missiles itself, nor does it seem to have the ISR to hit western supplies as they land/transport in. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Kinophile

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

That *is* strange given that China’s disenchantment with Soviet tutelage began in the 50’s and was fully formed by 1960. 

Followed by this minor tussle:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict

 

[cesmonkey]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

What are your predictions for the war in Ukraine in 2024?

Here are mine:

Increasing Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian towns and cities.

Russia will take Avdiivka before spring, and also close the Robotyne pocket. Then the frontlines will not move much more before summer.

Ukraine will attempt a new offensive in early summer, and it will be in the north, east of Kharkiv, where Russian defensive lines seem less strong. The aim will not be to liberate key territory but to cause maximum losses and for the political objective to show Western sponsors that the war can still be won.

The drone war will enter a new stage where the off-the-shelves commercial drones are replaced with mass produced purpose built drones, and the numbers of drone attacks will increase massively. Instead of single drone attacks, we might see several working in cooperation. Increased use of drone-dropped tear gas.

I predict the F-16's will turn out to helpful for Ukraine's defense this year, but not as much as some may have hoped.

[poesel]

Sorry, the forum is acting weird.

Edited December 31, 2023 by poesel

[Beleg85]

Guys do you also have this problem when trying to post? Some captcha menu pops out.

[poesel]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Guys do you also have this problem when trying to post? Some captcha menu pops out.

Yes, already wrote Steve. He's got probably nothing better to do today anyway

[Beleg85]

7 minutes ago, poesel said:

Yes, already wrote Steve. He's got probably nothing better to do today anyway

Mischievous spirit of New Year.

Now it seems ok.

 

About recent mysterious GPS jams.

 

[OBJ]

Happy New Year everyone, the best to you, your family, and all those you care for.

I've prognosticated enough for this year and next year. Let's see how things turn out. 

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

What are your predictions for the war in Ukraine in 2024?

I have absolutely none.  This war is hard enough to understand what is happening on a given day, let alone try to predict an entire year.  There are too many factors- internal and external- play to make a valid attempt.

We can say with some confidence that there will be pressure on Ukraine to deliver an operational victory next spring summer but whether or not they will or if it will be successful is impossible to determine.  Is the RA going to finally buckle?  Are they going to rally?  Is western support going to continue at 2023 levels?  Is there a technology game changer that will be introduced?  Will Russian political will falter? Will Ukrainian will falter?  Will western will falter?  Will someone solve for offence?  Will Jebus return on a fiery chariot to a Black Sabbath soundtrack and really mess with our heads?

I have no idea.

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I have absolutely none.  This war is hard enough to understand what is happening on a given day, let alone try to predict an entire year.  There are too many factors- internal and external- play to make a valid attempt.

We can say with some confidence that there will be pressure on Ukraine to deliver an operational victory next spring summer but whether or not they will or if it will be successful is impossible to determine.  Is the RA going to finally buckle?  Are they going to rally?  Is western support going to continue at 2023 levels?  Is there a technology game changer that will be introduced?  Will Russian political will falter? Will Ukrainian will falter?  Will western will falter?  Will someone solve for offence?  Will Jebus return on a fiery chariot to a Black Sabbath soundtrack and really mess with our heads?

I have no idea.

Max points for honesty.

My predictions are of course also with the disclaimer that I have no idea and am just a layman observing this war, but I like to think along.

Anyone here is welcome to poke fun of me next year when my predictions turn out to be completely wrong

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Is the RA going to finally buckle?

No. They are growing stronger by the day, despite the losses. The idea of Russian collapse is pie in the sky.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Are they going to rally?

No. But they are going to be fed into the grinder as usual.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

 Is western support going to continue at 2023 levels?

No. The average politician in the West is a weatherwane that is very sensitive to the sentiments of the voter base. And the voter base changed opinion about this war when the 2023 Ukraine offensive failed.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Is there a technology game changer that will be introduced?

I doubt it. But I think both sides are feverishly trying to solve the drone problem, while also pumping out as many drones as possible. We might see more anti drone countermeasures, but then also anti-anti countermeasures. I think drones are here to stay.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Will Russian political will falter?

No. In the West, we are horrified when we see the casualties the Russians are taking. But it would take millions of dead Russians before Putin's authority starts to get challenged.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Will western will falter?

No, but it is waning. Western political will depends a lot on where the front line goes. Currently, Western leaders (and the public) are not too unhappy about where it runs.

We do care somewhat about the fate of Ukraine as a whole, but we care much less about Crimea and the extreme eastern Ukraine than the Ukrainians do.

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[sburke]

My prediction - China will release Godzilla or some other mega monster and all of humanity will unite for our very survival.

China’s ocean drilling ship Mengxiang aims to be first to reach Earth’s mantle, opening ‘gate to hell’ (msn.com)

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

No. They are growing stronger by the day, despite the losses. The idea of Russian collapse is pie in the sky.

They really aren't.  They want you all to believe they are getting stronger but that is simply not true.  Now whether they get weak enough to buckle under the limited pressure the UA can project is another story.  As to "pie in the sky"...why does everyone seem to forget the RA collapsed operationally 3 times in this war?  Now strategic collapse is debatable but setting up another operational one is by no means a pipe dream.

[Bulletpoint]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

They really aren't.  They want you all to believe they are getting stronger but that is simply not true.  Now whether they get weak enough to buckle under the limited pressure the UA can project is another story.  As to "pie in the sky"...why does everyone seem to forget the RA collapsed operationally 3 times in this war?  Now strategic collapse is debatable but setting up another operational one is by no means a pipe dream.

First collapse was a result of a complete mess of an invasion plan... second was around Kharkiv, I think that was supposed to be a withdrawal but yes, it turned into a collapse with many losses of important assets. But what was the third one? I consider the Kherson episode a pretty orderly withdrawal.

But if they collapse operationally again in this war, I have a fresh crow here, all plucked and ready to eat

 

[Bulletpoint]

One more prediction:

If the winter turns into heavy frost, I think Ukraine might consider a frozen river crossing from Dudchany. If deepstatemap is correct, there are no fortified lines there, and nearly no enemy forces.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/31/world/europe/ukraine-russia-train-sabotage.html

Ukraine, Stalled on the Front, Steps Up Sabotage, Targeting Trains

As conventional forces struggle to break through defensive lines, both sides are increasingly turning to guerrilla tactics.

 

Both sides are clawing at each other anyway they can. My only prediction for next year is that things that can't last forever, don't. 

Happy new year....

[Beleg85]

So far only sign of Russian collapse is acute lack of eggs...but it's better than nothing I guess. Sometimes a pebble can start an avalanche.

Happy New Year to everyone.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

First collapse was a result of a complete mess of an invasion plan... second was around Kharkiv, I think that was supposed to be a withdrawal but yes, it turned into a collapse with many losses of important assets. But what was the third one? I consider the Kherson episode a pretty orderly withdrawal.

I am sure The_Capt meant Kherson for the third.  That's a more complicated one compared to the others.  It absolutely was an orderly retreat (an impressive one, in fact), however indications were that if they waited much longer there would have been a collapse.  This was similar to the removal of all Russian forces from northern Ukraine in that the Russians were obligated to retreat because collapse was imminent.  Kharkiv, on the other hand, was a classic straight forward collapse.

On a smaller scale I'd say the Russian defenses south of Bakhmut collapsed.  Unfortunately Ukraine was not able to fully exploit that because it was fully committed to the much larger fighting in the south.

And I fully agree with The_Capt's sentiment that Russia is not becoming stronger.  At the most it is recovering to a point it was at several months ago.  That's like saying the Black Knight somehow managed to get one of his legs back.

The question nobody can answer is how many times can Russia replace large scale losses.  It is absolutely not infinite.  Whether or not Ukraine is finally able to push Russia over the line, I think we'll see that tested in 2024 mostly by Russia continuing to heavily invest in meat assaults.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

 A different form of warfare. Undermining discipline and morale always works.

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by chuckdyke