How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

Yes, for now. But has Russia has played its winter missile campaign card yet? The Patriots can always be redeployed again. 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yes, for now. But has Russia has played its winter missile campaign card yet? The Patriots can always be redeployed again. 

Like you said, the Patriot can be moved very easily.  It could already be redeployed already, so not a problem for Ukraine to have it in place for some other threat coming up.

Steve

[Eddy]

13 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

But has Russia has played its winter missile campaign card yet?

If there even is a winter missile campaign card. We are deep into winter and there has been nothing like last years onslaught. Maybe they are waiting for the weather to turn really cold or something, but it's not like so far we've seen any evidence of Russia waiting patiently, building up its capability until everything is in place.

I wonder whether they've got the ability left for another winter missile campaign. At least on the same scale as last winter. If they haven't that will be very instructive.

Of course it goes without saying that the people on the receiving end couldn't give a stuff if it's a single Shaheed or full blown winter campaign. I wouldn't want to appear to be belittling the suffering going on.

[Kinophile]

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Like you said, the Patriot can be moved very easily.  It could already be redeployed already, so not a problem for Ukraine to have it in place for some other threat coming up.

Steve

Yup, true.

Still, the pattern of the campaign could point to the Black Sea grain corridor, with the partial dismantling of Crimea's defenses as a means to an end rather than the end in itself.

[Lethaface]

8 hours ago, Eddy said:

I've been thinking about the Storm Shadow/SCALP attack on the ship in Feodosia. That is right on the edge of Storm Shadow/SCALP's range which means that the SU24 either went over the Black Sea or very near to Russian controlled air space in order to deliver those weapons. Either way, normally that would put them at risk of Russian fighters and the Ukrainians don't have enough SU24s to take many risks. And they need those SU24s.

However, with the downing of 5 Russian jets (from whatever source), the Russian have to pull back before they work out what the hell happened, thus creating gaps. 

So, for me, this a planned operation. First shoot down the Russian fighters and then exploit those gaps created with a Storm Shadow/SCALP attack as part of the same operation. I can't see it being an opportunistic attack. The timescales are too tight. 

Secondly, it creates a dilemma for the VVS. Do they go back to employing their fighters the same way prior to the shooting down and risk further losses. Or do they protect the fighters but leave themselves open to further Strom Shadow/SCALP attacks? 

 

Another factor could be that F-16 are also able to fire these munitions, lessening the weight of potentially losing an SU-24.

[Letter from Prague]

I'm not sure about Meteor, since that is pretty much state of the art, but Ukraine should already have piles of AMRAAM because they are used in NASAMS - the whole point of NASAMS is "let's build ground based air defense system that uses NATO air-to-air missiles to simplify the supply chain", and that is why it was given to Ukraine as well, since NATO was literally running out of surface to air missiles.

Ukraine could mount some of the on F-16 for sure.

But I feel Patriot is better for "sniping" airplanes because it doesn't really lock things until the last possible moment (according to this explanatory video anyway) so it's like "all is fine, all is fine, oh no, boom" (this is very technical description, I know).

 

1 hour ago, Eddy said:

If there even is a winter missile campaign card. We are deep into winter and there has been nothing like last years onslaught. Maybe they are waiting for the weather to turn really cold or something, but it's not like so far we've seen any evidence of Russia waiting patiently, building up its capability until everything is in place.

I wonder whether they've got the ability left for another winter missile campaign. At least on the same scale as last winter. If they haven't that will be very instructive.

Of course it goes without saying that the people on the receiving end couldn't give a stuff if it's a single Shaheed or full blown winter campaign. I wouldn't want to appear to be belittling the suffering going on.

Ukraine also promised that if Russia tries hitting energy infrastructure again, they will retaliate by attacking oil and gas, which is the only way how Russia stays afloat financially. Now normally I would say Russians are too dumb to be convinced by something like this, but it is possible it worked.

If they are just stockpiling for a one or two big strikes so they can say "we can do this whole winter, surrender" that would of course backfire hilariously if as a response half their refineries will go boom.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Letter from Prague

[hcrof]

4 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I'm not sure about Meteor, since that is pretty much state of the art, but Ukraine should already have piles of AMRAAM because they are used in NASAMS - the whole point of NASAMS is "let's build ground based air defense system that uses NATO air-to-air missiles to simplify the supply chain", and that is why it was given to Ukraine as well, since NATO was literally running out of surface to air missiles.

Ukraine could mount some of the on F-16 for sure.

But I feel Patriot is better for "sniping" airplanes because it doesn't really lock things until the last possible moment (according to this explanatory video anyway) so it's like "all is fine, all is fine, oh no, boom" (this is very technical description, I know).

 

Ukraine also promised that if Russia tries hitting energy infrastructure again, they will retaliate by attacking oil and gas, which is the only way how Russia stays afloat financially. Now normally I would say Russians are too dumb to be convinced by something like this, but it is possible it worked.

If they are just stockpiling for a one or two big strikes so they can say "we can do this whole winter, surrender" that would of course backfire hilariously if as a response half their refineries will go boom.

I really don't think Russia is dissuaded by threats like that. A combination of poor information supplied to decision makers and hubris would means the threat has to be almost nuclear before they will be dissuaded. 

I just think the whole infrastructure campaign didn't work well last year and the defences in Ukraine only got better, so they are trying to rebuild their stockpiles of missiles for something else. 

[Zeleban]

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

And I recall cadres of Christmas party for Russian POWs three days ago. Maybe we must stop to wear a mask of "humanism and civilization" when we have a deal with beasts? They just lost a right to call themselves human beings and deserve of any conventions.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, hcrof said:

I really don't think Russia is dissuaded by threats like that. A combination of poor information supplied to decision makers and hubris would means the threat has to be almost nuclear before they will be dissuaded. 

I just think the whole infrastructure campaign didn't work well last year and the defences in Ukraine only got better, so they are trying to rebuild their stockpiles of missiles for something else. 

I don't know.  Russia has shown a distinct "If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try again instead of thinking up something new".

Ukraine's attacks on Russian infrastructure, in particular the oil and gas port capacity at Novorossiysk, show that Ukraine can back up its threats with action.  It's also been pretty vocal about production of UAVs that can hit that far out.  Even the dumbest of Russian leadership understand that the threat is real.

So if Russia does call off the terror campaign for this winter, I strongly suspect it is because they don't want to pay the price Ukraine promises it will cost them, not because they determined they should do something else.

Steve

[hcrof]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't know.  Russia has shown a distinct "If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try again instead of thinking up something new".

Ukraine's attacks on Russian infrastructure, in particular the oil and gas port capacity at Novorossiysk, show that Ukraine can back up its threats with action.  It's also been pretty vocal about production of UAVs that can hit that far out.  Even the dumbest of Russian leadership understand that the threat is real.

So if Russia does call off the terror campaign for this winter, I strongly suspect it is because they don't want to pay the price Ukraine promises it will cost them, not because they determined they should do something else.

Steve

Do we/Russia know for sure Ukraine can follow through on those threats? I have seen lots of talk about Ukrainian shahed equivalents but not a lot of hard numbers and effectiveness.

[cesmonkey]

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1. Shoot and scoot, Ukrainian style.

2. The chance to begin again, in a golden land of opportunity and adventure!

3. Here ya go, brother @Haiduk. Not murder, but a massacre....

4. Good old fashioned wire entanglements. Haven't seen many of these in this war.

 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Sojourner]

6 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Second ship was old training ship UTS-150, Russian media reported it is partially flooded, which I take to mean the masts are sticking out of the water.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/strike-on-feodosia-media-identified-another-1703632350.html

 

[Sojourner]

7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Shoot and scoot, Ukrainian style.

If they can do that with T-64s imagine what they can do with M-1s.

[Eddy]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

So if Russia does call off the terror campaign for this winter, I strongly suspect it is because they don't want to pay the price Ukraine promises it will cost them, not because they determined they should do something else.

Not so sure about this tbh. Russia has not been deterred up to now and even today the Guardian is reporting that 70% of Kherson is without electricity due to shelling. And Shaheed attacks on civilian areas are still ongoing nightly, which also doesn't look like Russian being deterred.

I wonder whether if we don't see a cruise/hyper-sonic/ballistic missile campaign like last winter it's because the Russian no longer have the capability, not by choice. The only production numbers we have seen come from Ukraine, which is understandably incentivised to err on the side of caution. Maybe the Russian's just can't produce that many anymore and the estimates from Ukraine are wrong. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

Do we/Russia know for sure Ukraine can follow through on those threats? I have seen lots of talk about Ukrainian shahed equivalents but not a lot of hard numbers and effectiveness.

As I mentioned, Ukraine has already scored several successes against critical Russian infrastructure very, very far away from the front.  They've also put drones into specific offices in Moscow and of course the various successes against oil storage in places like Kursk and Belgorod.  The threat can definitely be backed up, though we don't know how widespread or sustainable the attacks might be.  However, smashing the gas terminals in Novorossiysk is an obvious one to concentrate on.  Their first attacks were quite successful, but not followed up upon.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/safety/ukraine-drone-attacks-russian-refinery-near-crude-export-terminal/2-1-1544096

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

In other news... Ukraine sentences Pushilin to 15 years in prison.  I don't know why it took so long to do this, and of course they have to catch the bastard first, but it is still nice to see:
 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/donetsk-people-s-republic-leader-pushilin-sentenced-to-15-years-in-prison/ar-AA1m6m7C?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=e8adf774f2424f0eae268b70d61debac&ei=33

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Not so sure about this tbh. Russia has not been deterred up to now and even today the Guardian is reporting that 70% of Kherson is without electricity due to shelling. And Shaheed attacks on civilian areas are still ongoing nightly, which also doesn't look like Russian being deterred.

I wonder whether if we don't see a cruise/hyper-sonic/ballistic missile campaign like last winter it's because the Russian no longer have the capability, not by choice. The only production numbers we have seen come from Ukraine, which is understandably incentivised to err on the side of caution. Maybe the Russian's just can't produce that many anymore and the estimates from Ukraine are wrong. 

I wouldn't expect to see Russia shut off the terror campaign completely.  I don't think Russia is capable of switching that off for anything other than a cease fire (and even then...).  This is now even more important in terms of keeping Patriot batteries pinned down because they've seen what happens when they aren't.

Speculation for many months has been that Russia's been holding back on its monthly expenditures in order to build up stocks of missiles/drones to use en mas.  They did this last year and so it seems reasonable they would do it again.

I don't doubt they are running low on certain types of weapons, but they should have enough for at least a couple of months of massive increases in attacks.  We have not seen those attacks yet, which seems to me indication that there's a deliberate reason we haven't.  The most likely explanation is they believe Ukraine's threats of retaliation can be backed up with action.

Steve

[OBJ]

On 12/24/2023 at 1:23 PM, poesel said:

My wish for Christmas is 'Swan Lake' on Russian TV on repeat.

Hmmm, I thought most folks here agreed a coup that deposed Putin would end up worse for everyone, Russians, Ukrainians, Europeans, RoW? Did I misunderstand that the people in Russia that could pull off a coup would be worse than Putin in every way meaningful to everyone not already aligned with Russia?

[Astrophel]

Dumb questions for you military experts:

1) It appears from my own rumour mill that there is a lot of money washing around to buy msm journalists and influencers.  None coming my way so far.  Anybody have the same inputs?

2) And now a really stupid question.  I had a christmas dinner with a marine who is just back from parachute training in Arizona - because the weather is optimal for training apparently.  I thought "why not parachute over the mines"??. I said it was a stupid question but I would love to know the answer?

[Letter from Prague]

32 minutes ago, OBJ said:

Hmmm, I thought most folks here agreed a coup that deposed Putin would end up worse for everyone, Russians, Ukrainians, Europeans, RoW? Did I misunderstand that the people in Russia that could pull off a coup would be worse than Putin in every way meaningful to everyone not already aligned with Russia?

Worse for whom?

If the coup generated enough chaos in Russian lines Ukraine might have Ukraine roll all the way to Russian border, including Kerch. On the other hand, coup that does nothing to the lines but brings smart "I'm calling ceasefire now (while not moving an inch) and will give you all oil and gas for free" might seen Ukraine in a worse situation than it is now.

15 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

2) And now a really stupid question.  I had a christmas dinner with a marine who is just back from parachute training in Arizona - because the weather is optimal for training apparently.  I thought "why not parachute over the mines"??. I said it was a stupid question but I would love to know the answer?

And how are they getting there without being shot down?

[Seedorf81]

15 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

Dumb questions for you military experts:

1) It appears from my own rumour mill that there is a lot of money washing around to buy msm journalists and influencers.  None coming my way so far.  Anybody have the same inputs?

2) And now a really stupid question.  I had a christmas dinner with a marine who is just back from parachute training in Arizona - because the weather is optimal for training apparently.  I thought "why not parachute over the mines"??. I said it was a stupid question but I would love to know the answer?

On question number two:

Any plane that wants to drop paratroopers gets blown out of the sky before they even reach dropzones.

[poesel]

27 minutes ago, OBJ said:

Hmmm, I thought most folks here agreed a coup that deposed Putin would end up worse for everyone, Russians, Ukrainians, Europeans, RoW? Did I misunderstand that the people in Russia that could pull off a coup would be worse than Putin in every way meaningful to everyone not already aligned with Russia?

Worst case scenario is that Russia falls apart, and the nukes end up in the hand of criminals (who know how to use them).

Apart from that, any coup would weaken Russia in some way, even if not successful (see Prig). Which would be a good thing.

A group of people who could pull it off and have a reason to do so do not currently exist in Russia. If they existed, we would have a coup.

[Seedorf81]

Ninja'd by letter from Prague..