How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[White2Golf]

18 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Uh, could someone translate, please?

Appreciate all the assists on the translation.   Apologies for not being more clear.      

[Astrophel]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

UKR servicemen warn that Russians more and more use newest night FPV drones with cheap NV cameras, which allow to operate in dusk or night on 10-15 km behind frontline. For example on Bakhmut direction on the one of frontline section each night there are reports about 1-2 night FPV attacks. But several days ago Russians conducted "NV swarm drone attack" on one of directions and they could take out about dozen our soldiers and four pick-ups. This is very dangerous tendency - we also use night FPVs, but this is mostly Mavics with thermal cameras and they are too expensive for such single usage, when Russia already ordered direrctly in Chima dozen thousands of cheap FPV with NV cameres, much more cheaper, than thermal. And since some time this can cause huge problem for out logistic, because most of movements in close rear is conducting in darkness. So, our soldiers demand from officials immediately to find solution for quick development and mass production of EW assets, capable to supress video channel of drones.

We already have some working models, but not all of them showed itself good, and all of them developed for some particular tasks. ANd both we and Russians already try to pass on new control frequensies, so this race can be endless.

More universal solution will have bigger dimensions and development of suchg things demand many money, qualified developers, IT-specialists etc. But I have met more than once stories like this: "You came to enlistment center - by free-will or being mobilized and say - I xxxx specialist, I know English, I have experience in YYYY, I will be effective in ZZZZZ. Enlistmet officer says, oh, that good. You come to training center and became usual riflelman to assault next tree-plant since a month" 

Here is diagram, from where Russia imports spare parts for own drones production (it's unknown either assembled drones included or not)

China - 54.29 %

Taiwan - 20 %

Honkong - 5.71 %

UK - 4.29 %

Turkey - 4.29 %

USA - 2.86 % (special thanks to NVIDIA for their AI video chips for Lancets)

Canada - 2.86 %

Chili - 1.43 %

Bulgaria - 1.43 %

Uzbekistan - 1.43 %

So, China is a growing monster of drones production and spare parts and I afraid, western countries one time can encounter with painful reality...

When China plays this game, Taiwan will not be far behind and likely better at it.

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

AFU HIMARS doing its thing. Filmed by a RU drone.

@The_Capt

This is video of Feb 2023. Kherson oblast

[Haiduk]

This BTR-82A tried to cross the field on full speed, but got into the shell crater. After the driver couldn't free the vehicle from the trap, crew abandoned BTR and soon it was destroyed by UKR FPVs.

Edited December 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

38 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

When China plays this game, Taiwan will not be far behind and likely better at it.

Well, the numbers say Taiwan is already not far behind (in supplying Russia). But why should Taiwan be better at scaling production than China?

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

 

 

The one beside Donestk City? There are like five of them...

 

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

@The_Capt

This is video of Feb 2023. Kherson oblast

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Video kinda makes me nervous instead of confident.  RA should not be capable of rapid CB fires at this point due to attrition.  And what in the sweet seven hells is a HIMAR doing within range of CB in the first place?!  GMLRS has a min range of 70kms and should be well back.  I am pretty sure US has supplied the ER versions at 150kms…so what is that system doing 10-15 kms from the front?

I am sure the editors had something else in mind but that video is not really good news story.

Well, the Ukrainians have been screaming for even longer range assets from the beginning of the war essentially, When we don''t give them, they have to take risks like this. And if the Russians weren't capable of hitting the broad side of the barn occasionally Ukraine would be on the sea of Azov shooting GMLRS -ER at the Kerch Bridge. As Zaluzny made very clear the Russian CSISR/fires complex is good enough to prevent Ukraine from attacking at scale, and it is going to take more, or better, something to break that capability.

Edited December 9, 2023 by dan/california

[Chibot Mk IX]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 And what in the sweet seven hells is a HIMAR doing within range of CB in the first place?!  GMLRS has a min range of 70kms and should be well back.  I am pretty sure US has supplied the ER versions at 150kms…so what is that system doing 10-15 kms from the front?

It could be move forward to reach target further behind the line.

 

it could also be the case that shooting the HIMARS at a close range target. Shooting at 2/3 or 1/3 of the max range has some advantages.

* less bleed of speed from air drag, more terminal speed make interception harder.

* high angle trajectory will bring the missiles beyond the radar vertical scan angle limits. Many of the SAM systems have the scan/tracking angle limits at 45-60 degree. Only those optimized for BM interception can handle the target coming at higher angle.

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

It could be move forward to reach target further behind the line.

 

it could also be the case that shooting the HIMARS at a close range target. Shooting at 2/3 or 1/3 of the max range has some advantages.

* less bleed of speed from air drag, more terminal speed make interception harder.

* high angle trajectory will bring the missiles beyond the radar vertical scan angle limits. Many of the SAM systems have the scan/tracking angle limits at 45-60 degree. Only those optimized for BM interception can handle the target coming at higher angle.

Possibly but 1/3 max range of the ER is 50 kms, that is well back from RA CB.  If one has a target that the HIMARs need to come within 10kms of the front line so it could get range it would have to be a very high value target.  And to do it in daylight is even riskier.  Whole point of HIMARs is that they put range artillery systems.

Now if this was Feb 23 the Russian artillery had not been fully mauled.  The speed of that CB is hard to tell but it was likely in minutes.  Ukraine needs to continue to have a layered deep strike system linked into an integrated C4ISR system.  They lose that and Zalaban nightmares do become possible.

[Twisk]

The Russian army is quite large so there might be some undue extrapolation from this video. if 95% of the Russian artillery arm is crap they could probably still scrap together a few good batteries and perhaps give them some sort of mandate to hunt high value targets.

Like this clip tells us that Russia has one battery that is linked up to a drone and able to bring fast fires. But it doesn't tell us about the rest of the Russian Army.

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Well, the numbers say Taiwan is already not far behind (in supplying Russia). But why should Taiwan be better at scaling production than China?

Because China is ROC x 1000 at manufacturing. Infiray can presumably outproduce FLIR by several orders of magnitude just for thermal modules alone, let alone the rest of China’s excellent small drone industry.

God it grinds my gears that we essentially gave Russia enough time to figure out what works, while cutting support to Ukraine.

[Haiduk]

During several previous days Russian 104th air-assault division lost in attempts to push UKR torops from Krynky bridgehead about company set of BMDs. At least half of them were BMD-4M. According to Russian TG four vehicles were lost because of remotely mined ways.

Just several pictures, taken from "Magyar birds" videos (indeed on their videos number of hit BMDs slaightly more)

This BMD-4M stuck on road embankment for unknown reasons and was hit by ATGM. Further on the road inthe forest destroyed BTR-82A is seen.

Completely disassembled BMDs on the road in Krynky

Russian TGs sharply criticized methods of general Teplinskiy in Krynky. 

This one say that contrary to official propaganda and posts of some milbloggers, "six-weeks Teplinskiy's battle for Krynky" turned out as a "cauldron" not for Ukrainians, but more for Russians, because during this time Ukrianian garrison in Krynky, which maximum at one time had 2.5 companies forced Russian troops to withraw for replenishment 70th motor-rifle division, 61st naval infantry brigade was replenished by three companies of new personnel, 104th air-assault division was thrown to the battle, but has significan losses in vehicles.

   

Several Russian TG channels claim Teplinskiy has been establishing so-called "shock officers detachments" - the same assault units, like "Storm", but of officers. 

The scale of this phenomena is so significant, that even milbloggers write about this so far. Everybody, who at least in general makes sense in military affairs understand this is catastrophe. This is a collaps of control system and command vertical in troops groupment "Dnepr" 

[Butschi]

38 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Because China is ROC x 1000 at manufacturing. Infiray can presumably outproduce FLIR by several orders of magnitude just for thermal modules alone, let alone the rest of China’s excellent small drone industry.

God it grinds my gears that we essentially gave Russia enough time to figure out what works, while cutting support to Ukraine.

I guess you misread my post? I asked why Taiwan should be better at mass producing drone (parts) than China (which is what the post I answered to suggested, I think?). You are arguing why China is better at this - to which I agree.

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

it could also be the case that shooting the HIMARS at a close range target. Shooting at 2/3 or 1/3 of the max range has some advantages.

* less bleed of speed from air drag, more terminal speed make interception harder.

* high angle trajectory will bring the missiles beyond the radar vertical scan angle limits. Many of the SAM systems have the scan/tracking angle limits at 45-60 degree. Only those optimized for BM interception can handle the target coming at higher angle.

It's true but is it even relevant? Have we seen GMLRS intercepted at all?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

It's true but is it even relevant? Have we seen GMLRS intercepted at all?

Only Russian claims, but no video of real interceptions

And here Russian post about EW effectiveness on guided ammunition like HIMARS and Excalibur

It's a BS has been written. Total (answer on claims about effectiveness of EW against western guidd wepaon)

Excaliburs have not bad inertial navigation system. In addition to satellite navigation system. The highest point of Excalibur trajectory is on the altitude 8-10 km. Any of our "supressors" begin to have effect only on last 1-3 km of trajectory. To this time inertial system already ajusted itself exellent. On several last seconds of flight it has enough accuracy with a spare. 

The same about сhimeras (HIMARS in Russian slang). All this I cheked personally. On my own. As far as on Kherson bridgehead, when we tried to cover Antonovskiy bridge with EW. We could do nothing. EW doesn't affect Excaliburs and HIMARS in the area of target 

 In comments some our commentattors assumed, that enough big deviation from the tarhet (but no more 10-15 m) can be not because of EW workm but because of instrumental error in coordinates and further calculations as well as outdated topogeodetic data  

Edited December 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

Am I the only one who is getting a weird sense of Deja vu?

[danfrodo]

40 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Am I the only one who is getting a weird sense of Deja vu?

From which thing, pray tell?  

@haiduk showed some really interesting bits from Krynky.  I wonder if UKR had secondary/backup plan of using their bridgehead to kill lots of RU, assuming primary plan was for more territorial gain on left bank to get Kherson City out of RU artillery range.  RU doing nice job of attacking and failing so far.   

[Haiduk]

Russians could recapture most of own strongpoint south from Robotyne

 

Edited December 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Krynky results for today from "Magyar birds"

Also UKR soldiers write, Russians now try to use new tactic - their BMDs and BTRs on full speed breakthrough from flanks and disembark infantry al;most in our rear - our positions in Krynky are too disperse, so often we can't react immediately. After disembarking enemy vehicles make smoke and run away, leaving infantry to deal with our troops. But due to drones and artillery most of these vehicles we hit on their way back. Infantry than wipe out in skirmishes, artillery fire and FPV strikes.

Edited December 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kraft]

Fortifications are being built on the quieter sections, this here is in Sumy

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Also UKR soldiers write, Russians now try to use new tactic - their BMDs and BTRs on full speed breakthrough from flanks and disembark infantry al;most in our rear - our positions in Krynky are too disperse, so often we can't react immediately. After disembarking enemy vehicles make smoke and run away, leaving infantry to deal with our troops. But due to drones and artillery most of these vehicles we hit on their way back. Infantry than wipe out in skirmishes, artillery fire and FPV strikes.

I wonder how much fuel it takes to deliver a tank or ifv or truck of soldiers to Kherson for the Russians? That’s pretty much the farthest point on their logisitics chain, right?

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Video kinda makes me nervous instead of confident.  RA should not be capable of rapid CB fires at this point due to attrition.  And what in the sweet seven hells is a HIMAR doing within range of CB in the first place?!  GMLRS has a min range of 70kms and should be well back.  I am pretty sure US has supplied the ER versions at 150kms…so what is that system doing 10-15 kms from the front?

I am sure the editors had something else in mind but that video is not really good news story.

Ah, but is the video of the incoming Russian artillery even in the same area?  I'm not sure that it is.  As I said, this was something the Russians loved doing earlier in the war... show something real, then edit in something fake, then claim the two were linked. 

Even if the observation and the response were in the same area, there is no timescale.  We do know from the first portion of the video that the HIMARS were on the move, therefore wherever the artillery landed it wasn't likely where the HIMARS were at the time.

From what I see this only confirms that Russia had a far ranging drone that likely had some tipoff of HIMARS activity.  That is concerning even if the artillery wasn't even close to harming them.

Steve

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

Fortifications are being built on the quieter sections, this here is in Sumy

A great example of the insane waste or war.  These are, of course, necessary defensive works.  But what if the same levels of work were instead being spent on infrastructure like roads, water & sewage systems, schools, hospitals, etc.  One of those days where i just want someone to kill Putin.  Or some kind of local RU mutiny to spread.

Speaking of mutiny, I still hope against hope that some kind of small, company level mutiny could grow and spread to some kind of sector collapse.  We've seen how in Prig mutiny most RU units just stood aside to see what would happen.  I'd love to see this on the front.  Don't need whole front to break, just a significant area that leads to other areas becoming untenable once UKR moves into the abandoned areas.  RU soldiers at some point might realize they've got better survival chance by killing their officers and threatening anyone that comes at them.  But then again, then they won't get paid.  Of course, they don't get paid dead, either.  And in many areas of the front they are most likely gonna be dead, and soon.

[Vet 0369]

19 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Thank goodness no one was hurt.

Sad thing is forget the right procedure for clearing a weapon. Some people don't even know that ejecting a magazine is not enough to clear a semi-automatic pistol. I have heard stories of some people killing themselves because of this mistake.

I own a few firearms and I support civilian ownership of firearms, but this all reminds me of how important firearms education is.

Sometimes it isn’t a simple matter of “forgetting.” I must ashamedly admit that even I, a former USMC Rifle Platoon Sgt. and Weapons Section Leader screwed up royally a few years ago when I was on the range at my local Fish and Game Club. I was target shooting with my Ruger Mini-14. I fired a shot and my bolt locked, so I assumed my magazine was empty. At the same time, the “ceasefire”alarm sounded, and we went down-range to inspect our targets. When I got back to my shooting bench, the Range Officer was standing next to my ench and said “Is that your rifle?” I looked down and realized that I had not only left the magazine in the rifle, there were rounds to the magazine because I had a malfunction that locked the bolt back. He said “Never do that again!” I was absolutely mortified! I have been clearing weapons for almost 60 years, and that f..k-up I have ever done in all that time. You can be VERY SURE that it will never happen again.

[JonS]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Completely disassembled BMDs on the road in Krynky

It looks like an Airfix kitset.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ah, but is the video of the incoming Russian artillery even in the same area?  I'm not sure that it is.  As I said, this was something the Russians loved doing earlier in the war... show something real, then edit in something fake, then claim the two were linked. 

Even if the observation and the response were in the same area, there is no timescale.  We do know from the first portion of the video that the HIMARS were on the move, therefore wherever the artillery landed it wasn't likely where the HIMARS were at the time.

From what I see this only confirms that Russia had a far ranging drone that likely had some tipoff of HIMARS activity.  That is concerning even if the artillery wasn't even close to harming them.

Steve

Ya, no doubt doctored.  Of course if that was an RA UAS then that HIMARs was still too close for my comfort.  One of the limiting factors in this war is the range of tac UAS (well most of them).  HIMARs were not designed to be in tac ISR range.  Unless the video was shot from another platform.

This is no doubt the most filmed war in history but a lot of it is either skewed or incoherent.