How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

As The_Capt said a bunch of posts ago, it is important to define the parameters of asessing a Russian victory/loss before making a judgemental statement.

If it's not evident to everybody here already, I think that if we take Russia's stated objectives for this war then there's zero chance that it can legitimately be awarded any form of "victory".  It has lost on every single metric one can possible assess.  Russia never set a land corridor for Crimea as a victory condition, though it was an implicit part of what Russia was trying to do.

If we take a look at Russia's unstated objectives it has also failed.  For example, Russia has not intimidated its neighbors, in fact it has embolden them to oppose Russian hegemony.

What's more, the war isn't over.  Even if it were to freeze tomorrow it will take some time to fully assess how well Russia comes out of this.  For example, if it falls into civil war in a few years largely because of this war, then the costs of this war go up just a tiny, itsy bit   Those additional costs will need to be factored into an assessment of this war.  Much like many have reassessed the WW1 Allies' victories in the wake of it giving major cause for Nazi Germany and all that came from that.

All Russia can do going forward is try to make the best of a horrific situation.  Can it keep what it has?  Can it grab a bit more land?  Can it afford the costs to do either?  Anybody thinking that we can evaluate this right now is incorrect.  The war isn't over yet and therefore assessing Russia's final disposition is not possible.  Well, other than it has utterly lost this war and there's nothing it can do to reverse that.

Steve

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Artkin said:

Low cost, carbon fiber? Wtf lol

 

2 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

And jet engines. Not gonna have a long flight time.

it is obviously on the expensive side, and sort of straddling the line between being a drone, and a missile. But think about the capability is represents. All you have to know is that a helicopter took a shot from XYZ general area, and you send up one or two of these to hunt it down. It would also be very valuable for high end counter-battery targets like Uragan MLRS. It could get to the approximate area fast enough to find it trying to leave, doubly so if it could be launched while radar was still refining the launch location.

[Vet 0369]

On 11/29/2023 at 2:13 PM, Battlefront.com said:

The US, in particular, has built up a capacity to fight and win wars from the air and sea without having to commit ground troops.  How effective this is depends on the specific circumstances, of course.  The biggest factor is how sophisticated the opponent's economy and military are.  Bombing Serbia worked, bombing Afghanistan never would.

Russia and China are complex economies and militaries.  They are highly vulnerable to air and naval interdiction.  There would be no need to commit ground forces except in defense.  And on defense, my money is that the US military would clean the clock of anybody trying to gain ground from it.  The war in Ukraine makes that very clear to me.

In short, Russia and China present exactly the type of war that the US is most ready to fight and best suited to win.  It better be after all those trillions of Dollars in defense spending

Steve

Um, excuse me Steve, but exactly which wars has the U.S. won in the last 100 years without committing ground troops? Perhaps I’m being particularly ignorant today, but I honestly don’t remember any, and I’ve been present for almost three-fourths of that time period.

[Kinophile]

Mmmm

Tatarigami posted a very long interview with a female UKR volunteer, Yana. Her website 

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: A Personal Account of the Battle for Avdiivka by 28-Year-Old Ukrainian Volunteer Yana

Quote

Our team is thrilled to present an incredible interview featuring Yana, a 28-year-old Ukrainian volunteer who has recently returned from Avdiivka. It’s a highly illustrative story showcasing how people, specifically young Ukrainian women, continue to support Ukrainian troops on the most dangerous frontlines. If you're curious about what's happening in Avdiivka and wish to hear a firsthand account from a location typically closed off to journalists and the general public, look no further. We found her answers insightful, so don't miss out!

FI (Frontelligence Insight): Hello! Could you please provide a brief introduction and tell us more about yourself?

Y (Yana): My name is Yana, and I am 28 years old. Before the full-scale invasion, I worked in the construction industry as a manager of construction projects. I dedicated a lot of time to learning English and took additional courses in ArchiCAD and LIRA-SAPR. A significant part of my free time and, in general, my life, was devoted to studying and improving my knowledge in the field of design. However, after February 24, everything changed. All construction projects that were planned for 2022-23 were canceled and frozen. Currently, I am busy in the field related to my economics education.

FI: How and when did the war start for you?

Y: The war began for me in 2014. It was a very challenging period during which I experienced depression. I constantly felt unwell both physically and morally. Of course, this affected the learning process, at times impacting my performance, interaction, and communication with people. I worked with a psychologist. It was a huge blow for me to realize that, 1000 km away from where I was living, studying, and currently residing, the most terrible thing was happening - war. It was surreal for me that while I was performing mundane actions, someone was dying, someone was getting injured, homes were destroyed. It was shocking to see that despite these events, people could calmly attend classes, go to work, cafes, and clubs.

A part of what I loved was forever lost in 2014. It tore me apart to think that while I was attending an accounting class, there were ongoing military actions in the Donbas region. It was also challenging because many people said, "They themselves called for the Russian world," "They wanted Putin," "It's because of them that there's a war." These were people who never knew the history of Eastern Ukraine and never understood it.

FI: When and why did you decide to become a volunteer? (In Ukraine, the term “volunteer" refers to individuals engaged in providing military and humanitarian aid to both military personnel and civilians. These volunteers contribute by fundraising, purchasing, and delivering essential goods to military units and civilians on the frontlines.)

Y: It seems that, like many others, it all started for me with weaving camouflage nets. Yes, there were requests for them, and we were told how important it was and how it helps our defenders. It was enough for me as a second-year student at that time. But, as I shared earlier, I found these events deeply painful, and I wanted to do more. I spent my entire scholarship on supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU). It wasn't about large-scale fundraising; I didn't inquire about who was buying what and why. We had local volunteers and civic organizations in Chernivtsi (which are still active), and I financially supported them. It was important to me. At that time, intense battles were taking place in Donetsk Airport (DAP), Debaltseve, Ilovaisk, and so on. It was heart-wrenching, and I felt the need to be somehow involved in providing assistance.

Later, my mother and I started preparing homemade treats, and I delivered them to the military hospitals in our city. Every Tuesday, I would enter a random ward to visit the soldiers. There was a period when I consistently donated and supported the army without hesitation. Again, my mother always assisted me—whether it was making Easter bread for the soldiers or baking Christmas cookies to send to the front lines.

When the full-scale invasion began, on February 25th, my father and I filled our car with essential items and headed to the Territorial Defense headquarters in our city. We collected items for units that were being prepared and sent to the East. We were also helping civilians - by evacuating people from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kyiv oblast, and evacuating animals, transferring them to Europe. Only when I completed my second higher education in May 2022 did we start going on humanitarian missions directly to the frontlines.

FI: What is the essence of volunteering and who are volunteers?

Y: The essence of volunteering is perhaps in selfless work, in ongoing activities aimed not at gaining profit or any other additional benefits. Volunteering is, above all, the opportunity to influence environment, to initiate one's own projects, and to change the country. When people become volunteers, they not only get a chance to express themselves, get new knowledge and skills, but also strive to make the lives of others better.

I believe that each person who calls themselves a "volunteer" has their own motives that prompted them to engage in this activity. For me, it is primarily patriotism and the fact that my country is at war. Parts of our land are immersed in pain, suffering, and blood. And then, it is about fulfilling the needs of the less fortunate, gaining new experience in working with people, organizing, and conducting various social projects.

Currently, the activities of the majority of volunteers and volunteer organizations in Ukraine are focused on helping the military, supporting refugees, and assisting people affected by the war. Because this is our own, our homeland, and I simply cannot comprehend or accept how one can be indifferent to this movement in such challenging times.

FI: You've been to many cities and villages that were destroyed by Russian forces. What impressed you the most during your volunteer trips?

Y: Oh, here one could talk for days and nights because for almost 2 years of trips to the front and near-front cities and villages, there were many different situations and moments when I could cry and scream from pain and despair, when we laughed, probably hysterical laughter, when we said goodbye to life dozens of times and rejoiced because an important evacuation had succeeded, and when we scolded ourselves for arriving late.

I approach each of our trips calmly. For me, it's like going to work, with one important nuance. I perceive it as work because I go to various locations to work with civilians and the military, to help them.

This time, I'll share just one incident from our recent trip. We were working specifically along the Mariinka direction, and we entered the village of Maksymilianivka, just 5 km from Mariinka, or more precisely, the stones and ruins left of it. Before the war, 3000 people lived there; now, there are probably around 100. Maybe more, maybe less – it's hard to count accurately because it's constantly under shelling, and people hide in their homes, rarely coming out. In Maksymilianivka, they don't allow entry without an escort; everyone is checked at the checkpoint. And it was the last day of our trip: we traveled to Avdiivka and its surroundings, Bakhmut direction, Vuhledar direction – everywhere destruction, grief, no communication, and here we enter a house in Maksymilianivka, and there's light. It so impressed me, and I said to my colleague, "Wow, there's light here, it's a real miracle!" In the midst of terrible devastation in the village, constant shelling, lack of communication, and internet just 5 km from the front line, we saw light in a house. The thing is, electricians stay there, and despite the constant threat of artillery, MLRS shelling, and Orlan drones, these people work until the last moment and provide light to the people who stay in the village. Our people will probably never cease to amaze me.

FI: Let’s talk about the painful - Avdiivka. Tell me about your personal impressions from the recent visits.

Y: Avdiivka is my personal pain and a wound that has probably been with me all my life. Working and helping in Avdiivka – I mean both the military and civilians – is like living another life. Perhaps, after the war, I will write a book about it because so much has been experienced there. A lot of things that I cannot always talk about, and things that need to be told and shown to those who come after us, so that these things and stories are not forgotten.

I remember Avdiivka differently, in every season, and, of course, it hurts every time... as if for the first time when, instead of a city, I see piles of rubble and construction debris, and on the way to the city, instead of the outlines of a giant industry, I see clouds of black-black smoke from the next shelling...

I'm not saying it for the last time because I know that we will still work in the Avdiivka direction – and the last time I was there on my birthday.

On November 18, we woke up at 4 in the morning to load humanitarian aid for civilians and equipment for the military, so that by 6:00, a maximum at 6:30 AM, we would already be in the city. Avdiivka now is 22 km of a constantly shelled road. There are sections where enemy UAVs are actively working, so, as we say, we need to "skip" quickly. We entered without headlights, quickly, with open windows in the car to hear enemy UAVs.

The landscape in Avdiivka changes every night. Dozens of air strikes per day turn the city into complete ruins. There are fewer and fewer places for shelter, constant "KABs" (Guided Aerial Bombs), the scariest thing imaginable, when a building collapses like a house of cards before your eyes – I've seen that only in apocalyptic movies.

If you work with civilians: humanitarian aid and evacuation – everything needs to be done in the morning and very quickly. After the morning, the Russians fly with Orlans (recon UAV); they observe, and determine where there are groups of people (3 or more), from which building smoke is coming from a home stove, and KABs target it. Just damned scum waging war on absolutely unarmed and defenseless people.

It's very hard for me when through the window of a burned, black building with broken windows, I see remnants of life – a small intact chandelier that will never shine again, winter clothes on the shelves that no one will ever wear, and neatly arranged books.

But every damn time we enter this city, and at the entrance, Ukrainian flags greet us, it adds strength and motivation to move forward. I want everyone, both here and around the world, to realize the price we pay to see these blue-yellow flags in Avdiivka, and what irreparable losses we suffer. When I see our tired, exhausted soldiers who clearly say, "It's hard, but we're fighting," I understand that we have no right to get tired and stop. I'm ready to sacrifice my health, but I will be sure that I did everything to protect and help the bravest people in our country and our city, Avdiivka.

FI: In your opinion, why is Avdiivka so important for the Russians?

Y: Avdiivka, like a bone in the throat of our enemies, has remained an impregnable fortress. Unfortunately, this fortress is now forced to defend itself. As they say now, "capturing Avdiivka is purely a political goal" for these damn Russians and Putin in particular. They need victories. But a victory over what? Over peaceful people who have been deprived of their homes or because they destroyed the entire city?!

Avdiivka is the gateway to Donetsk. From there, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the opportunity to control the presence of the enemy in the oblast center, even by preventing them from moving certain vehicles and ammunition around the city. So, of course, they want to push the front line away from Donetsk. Another point, Avdiivka is probably the only defensive area that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not lost from 2014 to 2022. That is, during the time when there were large and difficult battles for Soledar, Bakhmut, Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, etc., their advances in Avdiivka were insignificant. Only the surrounding settlements from Avdiivka were lost to the Russians, and that was very long and very difficult for them. And another logistical component. I believe and will always believe that Avdiivka is a symbol of resistance. Probably even the Russians understand this, and that's why they are pushing so hard in this direction. You have to look at the map and understand that Avdiivka is precisely that outpost that, from 2015 to the present, has practically not moved forward or backward. It's a strong defensive zone that has been fortified.

FI: Do you agree with the opinion that when the Russians cannot quickly surround a city, they systematically destroy it?

Y: Yes, I often think about it... Bakhmut, Popasna, Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Svatove, Kremenna, Mariinka, Vuhledar, Mariupol, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Siversk, Soledar, and so on... and these are just the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk that Russia has destroyed, erased below the foundations. Once peaceful, flourishing, industrial or not, these cities may never be rebuilt. And how many villages? It's impossible to count. Millions of destroyed homes and millions of shattered human lives.

And when they write in their damn publics about the "liberation" of Donbas, I am disgusted with this phrase. Because it is total destruction. In some points of Avdiivka, the destruction is so catastrophic, but it is still being bombed, that I can no longer remember what this city looked like before. Avdiivka is a city where no building is suitable for even a major reconstruction. Also, a key location in Avdiivka was the AKHZ – once the largest coke-chemical plant in Europe, and a city formed around it. If the plant cannot be restored, there will be no more Avdiivka. All the industry of Avdiivka is destroyed, ruined, and brought to a state where it simply can never function again. Probably, this is what they seek – to destroy even the industrial potential of this region so that after the war, it will be simply unusable. These are absolute degenerates, despicable degenerates with nothing sacred, who just, for the sake of entertainment or idiocy induced by imperialist propaganda, destroy everything: schools, hospitals, kindergartens, abandoned warehouse buildings, residential and non-residential buildings.

School in Avdiivka

When there is no success on the battlefield, they show their vile power through terror against civilians and through the total destruction of the city. Take, for example, Popasna – they just destroyed the city and announced that they would not rebuild it, and now they are using it as a military base.

FI: I know that many Ukrainians trust you and constantly try to help. Do you feel foreign aid from ordinary citizens or organizations?

Y: Yes, as strange as it may sound, during this terrible war, there are pleasant moments, such as meeting incredible and strong people or receiving feedback from people. Trust from the community is the best thing anyone can receive. And of course, I am very pleased to receive trust and support from my fellow citizens and from foreigners. Getting help and support from the civilized world is very valuable to us. I always mention and sincerely thank Ukrainians abroad and foreigners in general for supporting the Avdiivka front. Sometimes people, when they see where we are going, how and where we work, say, "I want to help the defenders of Avdiivka!" I repeat, this is very important to me. It is important that the world sees the crimes that the Russians are committing in the once-small industrial city of Avdiivka.

Avdiivka is currently closed to journalists, so it is important to show how the city lives and fights, that there are still civilians here, and that the Russians are committing genocide against them. I am very grateful to everyone who supports our fundraisers for the defenders of Avdiivka, and to those who simply support me with warm words and wishes for success, because now it is more dangerous in Avdiivka than ever.

FI: How can one help the defenders of Avdiivka? Are there any urgent needs that need to be addressed?

Y: Today, once again, I spoke with servicemen from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, who have been firmly defending this direction since March 2022. The primary need is for combat equipment! There is also a shortage of personnel. Additionally, there is a constant need for drones: daytime, nighttime, strike, and FPV drones for installing surveillance cameras on various objects. Maximum unity and concentration of efforts are required. We must show that we are a reliable and worthy support for our defenders on the front lines.

FI: After the war, what would you like to do?

Y: Certainly, I would like to return to my former job in the construction industry. I hope to resume working in the field of design. However, it is very difficult to imagine what life will be like after the war. In any case, I can never go back to my previous life. Our work will continue in one way or another, with a lot of tasks in the de-occupied territories, working with civilians, and humanitarian missions. But yes, along with that, I would still like to engage in design.

FI: What places would you recommend for foreigners to visit in Ukraine?

Y: Currently, this is a very difficult and painful question for me because dozens of places I would recommend to visit to immerse oneself in the culture, better understand the locality, and experience the uniqueness of the region are unfortunately either destroyed, no longer exist, or are in temporary occupation.

Of course, I would like to recommend visiting Donetsk – as we used to call it, the "City of a Million Roses." Or Soledar, there was something to be surprised about in Soledar: remnants of the ancient Permian Sea, industrial objects, steppe landscapes, vast lakes, and even "Martian landscapes." And, of course, the salt mines. There, the descent is almost 300 meters deep, where there used to be a salt mining museum, a salt football field, a naturally occurring salt crystal the size of a human, sculptures created by local craftsmen, and a special hall for symphonic concerts. I also really liked the Avdiivka quarry, or as the locals called it, the "Maldives of Avdiivka." They used to extract quartz sand there. The former industrial zone eventually turned into a local landmark. It had clean and cool water. But many, many other places were destroyed and ruined by the Russians.

So, I would recommend visiting the Carpathian Mountains. Take a walk through the wooded hills and blooming meadows, and definitely climb the highest mountain – Hoverla.

 

[Vet 0369]

On 11/29/2023 at 2:23 PM, The_Capt said:

Ya, I gotta agree.  His track record would make him one helluva deep plant if we is working Russian side. 

No, I think we got a guy who is just wrung out and really tired of being tired, and scared all the time.  I mean from his viewpoint maybe it is all doom and gloom.  We do need to keep trying to use and source facts though.  This cannot simply become an opinion pulpit.  In fact if he has corroboration I would very much like to see it.  We do need to accept that if Russia has a breaking point then Ukraine has one too.  I am not seeing it but he definitely is - I am just not sure how he got there.  

I have to agree 100% with this. There is a condition that is commonly known as “War Weary” if you haven’t walked a mile in his shoes. You have absolutely no right to judge!

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Um, excuse me Steve, but exactly which wars has the U.S. won in the last 100 years without committing ground troops? Perhaps I’m being particularly ignorant today, but I honestly don’t remember any, and I’ve been present for almost three-fourths of that time period.

Serbia/Kosovo is the only example I can think of that air combat alone resolved without US ground troop involvement.  In fact, the US was so screwed up about how to deploy ground forces that it led to a major revisiting of strategic doctrine.  The most important result of that is the "Medium Brigade" concept (aka Stryker Brigade). 

The fact that there is really only one example is why I qualified it as an exception rather than the rule.  I also added that the mere threat of US attacks from the air (bombs, cruise missiles, etc.) has no doubt had an impact on the calculations of many nations.  Deterrence, however, is nearly impossible to quantify.  Which is the whole point of deterrence

Steve

[Vet 0369]

On 11/29/2023 at 5:10 PM, Letter from Prague said:

I meant Trump and similar voices in EU, not you.

And Donald and similar probably are the best advertisement for "spend money on defense and don't rely on US", just not necessarily the way they think they are.

Anyway, it's a bit offtopic.

How about we look at it on a contractual basis. Each member of NATO agreed to use a specific percentage of their budget (I don’t remember if it was GDP, Defense, or something else), and a number of NATO members reneged on that contractural agreement for decades. Now be it known that I wouldn’t vote for Trump if he was running for Dogcatcher against Putin or Xi, but I supported his effort against supposed allies which failed to carry their fair share of the load, whether they purchased their arms from the U.S. USSR/Russia, India, China, or South Africa, and whether they maintained their fighting forces from their own populations, or with Mercenaries from Sudan. The bottom line is that those NATO members who did not follow through with the obligations to which they had committed, violated the Accord and broke their contract. They deserved to be threatened by Trump.

[Vet 0369]

On 11/29/2023 at 5:44 PM, NamEndedAllen said:

Point of personal privilege  and friendly amendment. In the event of a Trump second term, the federal criminal and state civil and criminal prosecutions will indeed be a sordid mess. No matter the outcomes. However…

Because of the nature of the judicial system and the ability to appeal, any criminal conviction is unlikely to occur until well AFTER the election and inauguration , even in the unlikely event the federal cases were to go forward. But a Trump Justice Dept. 2.0 is quite likely to immediately drop all of its own Trump federal prosecutions on Inauguration Day 1/20/2024. The prosecutor for the Georgia state charges has recently suggested that her trial may well drag on into 2025. And the hopes of some that State prosecutions are out of federal jurisdiction are effectively vapor. The Justice Department's current policy disallows criminal prosecution of a sitting President due to the disruptions of the Commander In Chief to carry out his duties….national security etc. And rest assured the right wing Supreme Court will backstop such decisions. Nor will a Republican Senate and House impeach Trump. 
https://www.justice.gov/olc/opinion/sitting-president’s-amenability-indictment-and-criminal-prosecution

Maybe Nikki Haley will surpass Trump? More likely Trump would select her as VP. Because of the Republican primary schedule and its “Super Tuesday”, Trump will have the nomination locked up before the first trial might even start. Never dismiss outright a bizarre turn of events. But those who hope trials in and of themselves will derail a Trump election will likely be disappointed. 

I’m getting really tired of folks parroting what they are told by the media and political groups. First of all, Trump is not under incitement by the Federal Government. He is however under indictment by a State Government for violating Georgia election laws, so, based on Article II, Section 2 of the Constitution, “and he shall have power to Grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.” Too bad the charges he faces are violations of State laws. Article IV, Section 1 states “Full Faith and Credit shall be given in each State to the Public Acts, Records, and Judicial Proceedings of every other State.”

So yes, it would end up before the U.S. Supreme Court. However, I must disagree with your characterization that the Court is Political. This Court rules on what the text of the Constitution actually says, verses what previous Courts wanted it to say.

[danfrodo]

15 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I’m getting really tired of folks parroting what they are told by the media and political groups. First of all, Trump is not under incitement by the Federal Government. He is however under indictment by a State Government for violating Georgia election laws, so, based on Article II, Section 2 of the Constitution, “and he shall have power to Grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.” Too bad the charges he faces are violations of State laws. Article IV, Section 1 states “Full Faith and Credit shall be given in each State to the Public Acts, Records, and Judicial Proceedings of every other State.”

So yes, it would end up before the U.S. Supreme Court. However, I must disagree with your characterization that the Court is Political. This Court rules on what the text of the Constitution actually says, verses what previous Courts wanted it to say.

You do know that Trump is under multiple FEDERAL indictments?  Along with civil suits and has already been found guilty of fraud in NYState (by summary judgement).  And yes, he is facing state indictments. 

 And no, the supreme court is NEVER just doing what he text of the constitution says.  If that were true we wouldn't need a supreme court because we'd instead just read the constitution.  They must interpret the constitution, because it doesn't perfectly cover everything that happens in the world, especially 200+ years later.

And let's not get started on 'strict interpretation' of founding fathers intent.  The founding fathers intent is that Justice Thomas is a slave and Justice Comey-Barret is chattel.  So if they want to play the intent game, they are saying they want to be enslaved and rightless.

[MSBoxer]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

And let's not get started on 'strict interpretation' of founding fathers intent.  The founding fathers intent is that Justice Thomas is a slave and Justice Comey-Barret is chattel.  So if they want to play the intent game, they are saying they want to be enslaved and rightless.

Not to get technical, but amendments to the constitution were passed, according to a process laid down by the constitution to end slavery and give women the right to vote. 

So, the outcome various compromises may have been their "intent" as stated, they also intended the constitution to be modified via a process they laid down.

Not sure women as chattel was ever mentioned in the constitution.  It may have been common practice, but it was not a status proffered by the constitution.

Just a little constitutional nerdery.

[sburke]

30 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I’m getting really tired of folks parroting what they are told by the media and political groups. First of all, Trump is not under incitement by the Federal Government. He is however under indictment by a State Government for violating Georgia election laws, so, based on Article II, Section 2 of the Constitution, “and he shall have power to Grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.” Too bad the charges he faces are violations of State laws. Article IV, Section 1 states “Full Faith and Credit shall be given in each State to the Public Acts, Records, and Judicial Proceedings of every other State.”

So yes, it would end up before the U.S. Supreme Court. However, I must disagree with your characterization that the Court is Political. This Court rules on what the text of the Constitution actually says, verses what previous Courts wanted it to say.

In 2023, four criminal indictments were filed against Donald Trump, the president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Two indictments are on state charges (one in New York and one in Georgia) and two indictments (as well as one superseding indictment) are on federal charges.^[1] These indictments amount to a total of 91 felony charges.^[2] Trials are scheduled to begin in March and May 2024, while the Georgia trial has not yet been scheduled.

I am pretty sure you know that, so I assume you were specifically responding to the Georgia state indictment.

As to the court not being political, I think that is kind of unavoidable.  The role of the Supreme court is to interpret the Constitution.  Inevitably that becomes political.  For example in a recent ruling on the SEC court 

Quote

Chief Justice John Roberts noted the age of that precedent, saying that “the extent of impact of government agencies on daily life today is enormously more significant than it was 50 years ago.”

And yet the fact that firearms in 1776 were vastly less lethal than they are today seems to be not at all significant.

 

[sburke]

So the next time I hear someone complaining about how ineffective sanctions are because the West won't step up their game (which I actually would like to see them enforce better...)

A downed Russian Shahed drone was found with a Ukrainian SIM card, suggesting the technology was used to pilot the explosive drone: think tank (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

One of Russia's downed Shahed drones was reportedly found this week with a Ukrainian SIM card inside, suggesting that the technology was used to pilot the explosive attack drone, according to war analysts.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington, DC-based think tank, said in an assessment published on Thursday that Russian forces were reportedly using SIM cards from Kyivstar, the largest telecommunications operator in Ukraine, "to control Shahed drones" in Moscow's grinding war against Kyiv.

ISW cited a Ukrainian source that reported on Wednesday that "a downed Russian Shahed drone included a Kyivstar SIM card, which reportedly allows Russian forces to exploit the Kyivstar mobile network to track the drone's location and change its flight path."

Independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported that Kyivstar said in a post to X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter, that it is working with law enforcement agencies to prevent similar incidents from happening in the future.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

C'mon guys, the US politics is drifting *WAY* off topic.  Correction, has DRIFTED way off topic.  Time to cut it out of the conversation.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

Back on topic... equipment loses for the Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive. Roughly 1:1 with trucks and drones excepted.

 

 

[dan/california]

They are rounding up EVERYBODY not under the protection of the Moscow/St Petersburg upper classes.

[Offshoot]

Putin orders Russian military to boost troop numbers by 170,000 - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/02/putin-orders-russian-military-to-boost-troop-numbers-by-170000

Quote

 

Putin’s decree was released by the Kremlin on Friday and took force immediately.

...

The defence ministry said the order doesn’t imply any “significant expansion of conscription”, saying in a statement that the increase would happen gradually by recruiting more volunteers.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

39 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Putin orders Russian military to boost troop numbers by 170,000 - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/02/putin-orders-russian-military-to-boost-troop-numbers-by-170000

 

Here's what yesterday's ISW report said about this:

Quote

Russian President Vladimir Putin formally increased the official end strength of the Russian military, although this number likely corresponds to the current size of the Russian military and does not portend a dramatic increase in its size. Putin signed a decree on December 1 increasing the official endstrength of the Russian Armed Forces from 2.039 million to 2.209 million personnel, including 1.32 million Russian combat personnel. This decree represents an increase of 170,000 combat personnel from a similar decree that Putin signed in August 2022.[94] Medvedev’s recent figures suggests that this 170,000-person increase likely encompasses the net gain in Russian military personnel since August 2022 between partial mobilization, subsequent ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts, the number of Russians concluding military service, and Russian casualties in Ukraine.

lf I understand this correctly, what it means is that this year Russia raised 170,000 more than official "endstrength" and now Putin has decreed that this become the new ceiling starting in 2024.  In other words, making this year's increase official for next year.

The next section in in the report talks about Russian announcements to expand training facilities.  With that they said:

Quote

The expansion of training infrastructure likely aims to support Russia’s crypto-mobilization efforts, through which Russian forces appear to be committing a consistent amount of new personnel to Ukraine at a rate roughly equal to Russian losses.

In other words, that 170,000 additional forces raised in 2023 was on par with what Russia lost.

Steve

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Um, excuse me Steve, but exactly which wars has the U.S. won in the last 100 years without committing ground troops? Perhaps I’m being particularly ignorant today, but I honestly don’t remember any, and I’ve been present for almost three-fourths of that time period.

The Cold War.

[sburke]

27 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The Cold War.

Well technically speaking the cold war did have some hot fronts.  One could make the argument that Vietnam and Korea were both part of the cold war.

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Well technically speaking the cold war did have some hot fronts.  One could make the argument that Vietnam and Korea were both part of the cold war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_related_to_the_Cold_War

[cesmonkey]

CNN article:

 

[Letter from Prague]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

They are rounding up EVERYBODY not under the protection of the Moscow/St Petersburg upper classes.

They're not at risk of going to go to prison in their home countries if they're dead, so ...

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

it is obviously on the expensive side, and sort of straddling the line between being a drone, and a missile. But think about the capability is represents. All you have to know is that a helicopter took a shot from XYZ general area, and you send up one or two of these to hunt it down. It would also be very valuable for high end counter-battery targets like Uragan MLRS. It could get to the approximate area fast enough to find it trying to leave, doubly so if it could be launched while radar was still refining the launch location.

That was my question. In what way is it not a missile? Because you can directly control it and because it can loiter?

[Letter from Prague]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, here's what I see as the flaws in your framing of how to assess this war.

I think that makes sense - I didn't think about it that way, but the current state of the war looks very different whether you consider the 2014 borders or the 2022 borders as the base state.

...

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/12/01/hiv-infection-rates-reach-epidemic-levels-in-19-russian-regions-en-news

On an unrelated note, here's another (not entirely new) way in which Russia is ****ed.

I would hypothesise that rate of HIV is a proxy for number of intravenous drug users, sexual violence and prostitution, and those are a proxy for a general level of despair in the population.

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, sburke said:

Well technically speaking the cold war did have some hot fronts.  One could make the argument that Vietnam and Korea were both part of the cold war.

https://world101.cfr.org/understanding-international-system/conflict/eight-hot-wars-during-cold-war

Ukraine by definition is a proxy war:

https://warontherocks.com/2021/09/the-return-of-great-power-proxy-wars/

On that list on the first link: Congo, Nicaragua (kinda), Chile and Afghanistan were all successfully waged by the US in the background and no overt commitment.  You could likely add Israel and its various wars to this list.

As to the Cold War itself.  Although there were definitely hot actions that both did and did not directly involve US ground troops.  And commitments of significant ground forces were required for deterrence.  The reality is that the war was decided by internal economic and political pressures that built up over time within the Soviet Union.  NATO military power had a role in making that happen but it was not linked to anyone military victory or defeat.

Ukraine will very likely be a proxy war victory for the West, although as has been debated, not a total victory - these things rarely are.  Further it will be a victory where no western ground troops (beyond the possibility of SOF) have been committed.  I strongly suspect that China and Russia will take note of this and we can expect significant trouble when next we decide to saunter into Nation B to pursue some sort of interests.  The lesson of Vietnam, Afghanistan (and the War of 1812), is that Peter Sellers had it right, the US is a very magnanimous winner but also a very sore loser - they are a hot blooded, emotional peoples.  There are options for manipulation for competing powers in this.  In fact there is a not so radical idea that Taiwan is no more than bait to grab US attention while China continues to push westward, not eastward.

1812-1815 on this continent is a fascinating conflict when viewed in parallel to Ukraine.  A larger growing power with simply terrible strategy and planning.  Making many of the same poor assumptions Russia did at the start of this war.  A small vassal proto-state (Canada would not be a full nation for another 50 years) to another great power is invaded and through a combination of direct and indirect support defeats the invading greater power soundly.  War ends with one defensive victory by the US at New Orleans, after failing to achieve any and all of its initial strategic objectives.  In fact gets its capital destroyed.  But in the post-ceasefire convinces itself and the rest of the world that it won by successfully defending itself from “British aggression.”  150 years later, someone writes a catchy tune and it is a done deal.

I strongly suspect Putin will do the exact same thing.  Ukraine will go down as a great Russian victory when they pushed back the Western powers and taught us all a lesson by taking back a strip of land south of the Dnipro.  Victory or defeat in any war is a meta stable human concept.  Both sides in anything but total destruction will claim victory.  The trick is to not forget the larger objective each said head at the outset and then judge accordingly.
 

[Beleg85]

Another recording of Muscovite warcrime surfaced: Russian assaulters shot surrendering Ukrainian soldiers:

 

Edited December 2, 2023 by Beleg85