How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

Close drone survey of aftermath of Russian 15th Mot. Rifle Bde.’s Oct. 10th assault near Avdiivka:

FPV drones ensure no vehicles will be recovered:

 

Edited November 12, 2023 by akd

[Haiduk]

Soldiers of assault brigade "Steel Border" (from "Offensive Guard" )of State Border Guard Service has entered to small village Topoli (eng. means "Poplars") on the border with Russia and raised flag there. This is on right bank of Oskil river, north of Kupiansk direction.

Despite situation maps, where Topoli is marked as Ukiiane controlled, indeed this was grey zone. UKR soldiers spotted some activity of Russians, which crossed the border in village area - after short clash Russians were expelled back beyond the border. Border guards raised a flag over empty village just as mentioning that this is Ukrainian territory, but didn't establish positions there. So, probably situatin will repet through some time

Enetering to the village and raising a flag

Edited November 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[poesel]

13 hours ago, JonS said:

And something like this is REALLY hard to reliably fully cut with an explosion and frag:

 

Sorry, this is off-topic, but I'm too curious to not ask where the military application of this type of copper band is?

I use it quite often at work whenever we have to transmit a few thousand amps over a moveable joint in a converter application. But military application? Maybe for the lasers, but I'd guessed they would use water cooled cables.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

Russia bleeds and only its more competent components manage to remain (whether political or military). They are learning - on a tactical level, or, when it comes to war economics and regime stability, on a strategic level.

Good post, thanks, but to continue the knife metaphor, this one is double-edged.

In all wars, as reflected in memoirs from Gilgamesh on, it's either the clueless newbs or the best, bravest and most highly skilled warriors who tend to perish in the largest numbers.

...Of course, provided they survive to learn, their replacements might prove as or even more effective, especially if they haven't had to unlearn outmoded or destructive prewar practices (e.g. medal parades ). But that's really more organisation-driven than individual. Good men lost are still good men lost.

Edited November 12, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, poesel said:

Sorry, this is off-topic, but I'm too curious to not ask where the military application of this type of copper band is?

I use it quite often at work whenever we have to transmit a few thousand amps over a moveable joint in a converter application. But military application? Maybe for the lasers, but I'd guessed they would use water cooled cables.

That's not copper.  Hessian or hemp is my guess.  Smartest idea I have seen so far as it probably would provide one of the best nets for both tangling and camo. Cheap and light too.

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

That's not copper.  Hessian or hemp is my guess.  Smartest idea I have seen so far as it probably would provide one of the best nets for both tangling and camo. Cheap and light too.

Filename: "Flat-Pure-Copper-Braid-Cable-Bare-Ground-Lead-Copper-Braid-Wires-1m-3-3ft-x-15mm-3596234367.jpg.2b7b2e99016f5ca01b0f53307fd0f3ed.jpg"

Seems like copper. Maybe was supposed to represent hemp?

I use these braids like that (usually tinned) at work for shielding cables manually when I try to find an EMC problem, but they are great for high currents too. 

 

[The_Capt]

32 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Filename: "Flat-Pure-Copper-Braid-Cable-Bare-Ground-Lead-Copper-Braid-Wires-1m-3-3ft-x-15mm-3596234367.jpg.2b7b2e99016f5ca01b0f53307fd0f3ed.jpg"

Seems like copper. Maybe was supposed to represent hemp?

I use these braids like that (usually tinned) at work for shielding cables manually when I try to find an EMC problem, but they are great for high currents too. 

 

Hm, weird.  The end piece looks knotted and tied...why do that with copper? Some sort of artistic thing?  I am no electrician but I would have no idea what a copper strap like that would be for then.  

Militarily copper would be a terrible idea - expensive as hell, heavy and thermally shiny.  Back to this:

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_fibers

[danfrodo]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Hm, weird.  The end piece looks knotted and tied...why do that with copper? Some sort of artistic thing?  I am no electrician but I would have no idea what a copper strap like that would be for then.  

Militarily copper would be a terrible idea - expensive as hell, heavy and thermally shiny.  Back to this:

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_fibers

Copper is expensive.  Doing this w copper would be kinda insane at the dugout/trench level.  

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, JonS said:

One problem at a time

EFP/Tandem/GMLRS/155mm were all problems last decade and last century. And we have ways of dealing with those threats ... or at least ways of not losing our minds when they're being employed. Smart, highly maneauverable payload-bearing drones are the new element looking for a solution.

Ah yes, but those highly maneuverable drones now present an ISR capability that did not previously exist, which in turn makes all of the last century's PGM capabilities all the more effective.  The chances of spotting a M777 when it isn't actively firing is up dramatically.

Now you take that M777 and put metal mesh screening around it sufficient enough to stop a drone with a standoff blast effect.  You're now talking about netting that has to be probably 10m out.  Let's see if I can do the math right.

A M777 is 10m by (let's keep it simple) 5m.  That means the sides of the protective box need to be about 30m long and the front/back about 25m long.  The all have to be about 15m high.  That means you are now advertising a volume of space roughly 11,250m3.  Making the enclosing area more-or-less a dome will cut this down quite a bit, but that is a more complicated structure to create/manage and it doesn't really change the equation much.  Which is that you might have a better protected M777 from drone attacks, but you have seriously upped the chances of it being noticed by a drone.  And if it is noticed by a drone, it can be eliminated by PGM.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Close drone survey of aftermath of Russian 15th Mot. Rifle Bde.’s Oct. 10th assault near Avdiivka:

 

Thanks for that.  I am still waiting for someone to post a non-jump-cut view of this battlefield.  The disjointed closeups and distant shots makes it so hard to assess which vehicles are where.  Yes, previous videos have given us a pretty good idea, but damn... it would be nice to just see it all in one go!

Steve

[Kinophile]

WARNING -  Graphic at end

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1723750661869719936?t=177XTbZ-A2eYUF9suBY5mQ&s=09

I avoid gratuitous war porn, but until I find a vid without this ending, there's this.

We were talking about an FPV drone tracking and popping a tank at speed. Here is an FPV drone tracking and impacting a motorcycle (messenger?) at full speed. 

Again,  graphic last section (shows body aftermath) . 

 

[JonS]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Artillery is no longer dumb (as much as it pains to admit),

Artillery may not be but Gunners are, so there's that to hold on to.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Good post, thanks, but to continue the knife metaphor, this one is double-edged.

In all wars, as reflected in memoirs from Gilgamesh on, it's either the clueless newbs or the best, bravest and most highly skilled warriors who tend to perish in the largest numbers.

...Of course, provided they survive to learn, their replacements might prove as or even more effective, especially if they haven't had to unlearn outmoded or destructive prewar practices (e.g. medal parades ). But that's really more organisation-driven than individual. Good men lost are still good men lost.

This is where Russia is really shooting themselves in the foot over and over again.  I will keep up with the knife metaphor

First, they should not be sending untrained meat into pointless assaults.  This is akin to starting with a piece of raw and not all that good steel.  There is no shaped edge on there to sharpen to start with, so it has to be created before there can be any thought of it being sharp.

Second, at the strategic level if the approach is to continue stabbing blindly at the grinding wheel, the overall picture won't change.  You're just going to damage one blade, discard, damage another, discard, etc.  The little bits of sharp on each won't matter because overall the blade is junk now.

Third, when someone does have an idea of how to sharpen correctly, and is making some progress getting the blade sharp, the moron above him tells him to start jabbing the grinding wheel because apparently the purpose is to damage the wheel.  So that blade that was getting sharper is now going to be as much junk as the rest.

Moving away from the knife metaphor, what we see happening is that some Russian tactical units do manage to learn, but they more capable the units become the more likely they are going to be used to attack or counter attack.  Because the higher levels of command are not learning, this means the possibly improving units are put into situations where their hard won experience isn't relevant because they're given incompatible orders.  "Hey, we learned not to attack in armored masses because we get slaughtered, but orders here say to attack in an armored mass.  So much for applying our knowledge!"

Steve

[JonS]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Of course the second problem is that as soon as I lose a drone to a net, I am going to pound that spot with indirect fires.  

If the drone is autonomous (fly-and-forget?) you wont know what happened to it. If the drone is not autonomous then its vulnerable to jamming, etc.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Zeleban said:

A short overview of the situation on the Kherson bridgehead and near Rabotin from Mr. Mashovets

1. Crimean - Dnieper direction...

Obviously, the enemy command has so far refused to bring into battle the main forces of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, as well as the 7th Airborne Assault Division, at the first position of its main defense line along the Oleshki-Novaya Kakhovka coastal road.

At the moment, from the 70th division, only the 26th motorized rifle regiment is directly brought into battle, another - the 24th motorized rifle regiment, deployed in the second echelon of the enemy tactical group of forces, operating in the direction of Podstepnoe and Peschanovka, north of Radensk... The remaining units and subunits of the formation are probably concentrated in the Kliny - Druzhnoe - Skadovka - Petropavlovka area, around the villages of Tarasovka and Brylovka (28th motorized rifle regiment, 17th tank regiment and 81st self-propelled artillery regiment). , at least one consolidated division (sadn) of the latter, nevertheless, operates towards the village of Krynki, supporting the 26th infantry regiment.

              The 7th Airborne Division has so far brought into battle only the 171st Airborne Assault Battalion in the Poima-Antonovsky railway bridge direction. There is some information about the movement of units of the 56th Airborne Assault Regiment of this division to the Crimean-Tavrian direction, but so far our group (IS) has not found objective evidence regarding this... The remaining units of the 7th Airborne Division deployed in this direction ( The 104th tank battalion and the 162nd separate reconnaissance battalion + division headquarters) are probably concentrated in the Marchenko - Chernaya Dolina - Magdalinovka - Morozovka area.

              Thus, it becomes clear that while the enemy is acting against the forward bridgeheads of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the left bank of the river. Dnieper, currently with limited forces:

- part of the forces of the 49th combined arms army - 205th separate motorized rifle brigade

- part of the forces of the 18th Combined Arms Army - 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade, 2 regiments of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division (24th and 26th), separate units of the 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade

- part of the forces of the 40th Army Corps (AK) - 144th separate motorized rifle brigade
- as well as a number of “attached” forces and means - the 171st infantry battalion, the 177th separate marine regiment and at least 3 motorized rifle regiments of territorial troops, 3 separate battalions of the BARS type, territorial troops and mobilization reserve, concentrated mainly in the area of Oleshki and the village of Cossack Camps.

There is also as yet unverified information about the deployment to the south of the village. Korsunka (directly behind the Shtorm-z) of at least one battalion of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade. But, obviously, with further negative developments in the situation in the coastal zone, the command of the enemy group of forces “Dnepr” will immediately try to increase its efforts in these directions.         

 In the meantime, in the near future, we can expect intensive “tests” of the enemy by the above forces; if not liquidate the Ukrainian bridgeheads, then at least significantly reduce them in size, block and isolate them...

First of all, the enemy will obviously try to interrupt the logistical support of advanced Ukrainian units and their replenishment...

Thanks for the posting!

Russia holding back forces can be for any number of reasons, but it's probably some combination:

1. fear of thinning out and inviting more crossings in certain areas
2. units are unfit for mobile operations
3. frontage is too congested to employ more forces without risking high attrition from Ukrainian artillery/drones
4. they don't feel ejecting the Ukrainians is worth wearing out its entire area defenses

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, JonS said:

If the drone is autonomous (fly-and-forget?) you wont know what happened to it. If the drone is not autonomous then its vulnerable to jamming, etc.

Both sides tend to have at least 1-2 drones operating in overwatch to do realtime BDA.

But as I said, you don't even need this.  Just noticing the netting is enough to warrant a closer look and, if a target is confirmed, smashing it with a PGM.

Steve

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We kinda didn’t if we are honest with ourselves.  I think we talked ourselves into solutions but they were never tested.  Smoke, manoeuvre, APS, ERA.  I think we “umpired” a lot of these realities away in wargames and training, and then outright dismissed them as we fought in Iraq and Afghanistan.  I can’t imagine the difference in COIN if the Taliban had the levels of internet access we see today and drones, let alone a straight up conventional war.

Problem is that in the first real peer conventional war all of the things we tried to forget, plus new stuff all came home to roost.  Artillery is no longer dumb (as much as it pains to admit), ATGMs don’t give a fig about smoke or ERA, drones are flying directly at individual soldiers and following them into bunkers, and ISR is just crazy.

Finally on nets.  I actually think that combining a strong mesh (non-metallic would be best…carbon fibre?) with thermal camouflage might make for an effective UAS shield…but a static one.  For vehicles they are simply too hot and easily detected once they fire.  So definitely a good idea but they would have to be retractable and quickly so vehicles could move in seconds.  For troops they make for a solid defensive option to protect trenches but once again we see defensive primacy.  The second they get up to move they are not going to drag those nets with them.

Of course the second problem is that as soon as I lose a drone to a net, I am going to pound that spot with indirect fires.  But maybe trenches still work?

Either way this whole thing still points to a static defensive environment where attacking and/or moving is extremely difficult.  My best guess is that until someone can field an APS made of UAS/UGV (and then they will figure out we probably don’t need whatever they are protecting), we are kinda stuck.  Corrosive warfare did work but clearly it has a threshold and the Russians found enough friction to blunt it.  At a tactical and operational level the RA kinda won Summer ‘23 (until we understand the full impact of losses we cannot know strategic outcomes).  Maybe we got too used to them losing but the fact that your opponent is going to have good days is a reality in any war.

My hypothesis is not that the RA suddenly outfought the UA.  It is that they finally established conditions where defensive asymmetry succeeded.  Now whether the UA can overcome that may be a bigger issue than “more kit”.

Out of likes, outstanding post!

[dan/california]

 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

Seems like copper. Maybe was supposed to represent hemp?

Yeah, the picture is of a copper strap. And yes, copper would be a terrible material to use for this application.

It was the construction I was referring to - a strap or cable like that but made of carbon fibre, jute, string, or whatever light-and-strong is what I was referring to.

[akd]

Kicking the ant pile:

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://mwi.westpoint.edu/its-time-to-ukrainify-us-military-assistance/

An experienced British Army officer contrasted the American approach with his own: “Our training courses are more effective because we started listening and collaborating with the Ukrainians. . . . They’ve forced us to update our own doctrine, training, and manuals on how to fight a modern war.” The British officer accepted the fact that most Ukrainian soldiers he trains have extensive experience in trench warfare and have faced artillery and armor without the protection of air superiority—battlefield experience that not a single US soldier has today.

 

The whole article is excellent, but no regular reader of the thread will be surprised.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

And China is cheering their best buddy Vlad on. The Middle Kingdom is only too happy to repopulate all those hinterlands, which they would've done in the Ming dynasty had they known it contained useful stuff.

Russia has also done a good job of bleeding out the descendants of the Great Khans since about 1650, so they no longer become China's rulers at various intervals.

 

[danfrodo]

13 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

And China is cheering their best buddy Vlad on. The Middle Kingdom is only too happy to repopulate all those hinterlands, which they would've done in the Ming dynasty had they known it contained useful stuff.

Not sure I understand this.  If Vlad wins, what hinterlands are available?  If Vlad loses, there could be RU breakup and lots of hinterlands available.  

[Vanir Ausf B]

A good shot of the new Lancet EFP drone. Looks like it detonates about 3 or 4 meters from the target.

https://twitter.com/cvetko35/status/1722589902347383131

 

Edited November 12, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/11/us-ukraine-support-putin-defeat/675953/

The West Must Defeat Russia

Putin hasn’t given up his plans. He thinks Ukraine’s allies will lose interest.

By Anne Applebaum

 

 

And we aren't working at it nearly hard enough!