How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

About these upgraded Lancets with LIDARs and over-target HEAT activation - here presumably the first documented video of it's attack on Bradley near Avdiivka. Looks like HEAT charge was reduced by ERA and didn't make serious damage to IFV, but situation is not good

Looks like a standard impact explosion to me.  I can believe ERA is able to defeat a Lancet.

Steve

[Haiduk]

As you know, during a week UKR forces have been striking some important targets in Russian rear:

1. UAV operators school of DNR forces in Donetsk. Russian milbloggers tell valuable equipment was lost, also losses among personnel (unknown how much, likely about dozen). One of most painful losses for DNRs - old very experienced sapper, veteran of Afganistan, who fought since 2014, separs called him "sapper genuius"

2. Strike on Russian HQ in Strilkove on Arabatska spit in Kherson oblast. By contraversal information VDV general Teplinskiy  either was wounded or still intact.

Now appeared first news about losses - UKR really hit HQ of "Dnepr" groupmemt, when lilely their operative planning department had a meeting

From left to right:

Colonel Vadim Dobriakov, operative duty - deputy of the chief of VDV Command control center

Colonel Aleksei Kiblov - chief of department of fire missions planning of VDV HQ

Colonel Aleksandr Galkin - operative duty - deputy of the chief of VDV Command control center   

 

Obviously killing of high-ranked palnning department officers and wounding of unknown number will affect control capabilities of Russian troops in Dnipro area.

3. Strike of 9th of November on Skadovsk, sea-town of Kherson oblast. A building was hit, where 126th military investigation department of Investigation Committee of Russian Federation and Rosgvardiya station was deployed. Russian TGs claimed 8-10-11 servicemen were killed (different sources), 10 wounded. In present time five bodies are recognized, three of five more still on recognizing.

Among killed - acting chief of 126th miliatry investigation department Dmitriy Katsuba, two officers-interrogators, forwarder and driver. Among wounded also Dagestanian servicemen of Rosgvardiya and Miliatry Police 

 

4. Except today's maritime drone attack on Chornomorske in Crimea, reportedly barracks of border guards and naval forces in this town were hit with missiles. No information about losses yet.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

48 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

About these upgraded Lancets with LIDARs and over-target HEAT activation - here presumably the first documented video of it's attack on Bradley near Avdiivka. Looks like HEAT charge was reduced by ERA and didn't make serious damage to IFV, but situation is not good

Also reportedly new footage has appeared with Lancets or their cheaper version Skalpel, equipped with thermal camera, allowing it night usage. Sanctions are working...

The problem is what it always has been. There needs to be an effective solution to kill the mid altitude observation drones that are guiding these things in. My current a vote is a drone that looks just like the drone it is trying to kill, but has whatever ever sensor works best. Just set them up as aerial kamikazes until someone figure out something better.

[Haiduk]

Training of Russian MiG-31K, Kinzhal carriers, with inflight refueling, caused probably longest air raid alarm in Ukraine, lasted 3,5 hours. 

During this time in one scholl bomb shelter in Kyiv %)

 

[dan/california]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/17s6yxl/russian_column_stuckabandoned_in_vodyane_an_ural/

It appears mud season is in full swing.

[Haiduk]

UKR artillery or HIMARS has struck Russian supply convoy in Hladkivka village, 25 km south from Kherson, this is Hola Prystan' direction - relatively calm area, distant from Krynky. Russians got too much relax and...

Claimed losses 8 trucks destroyed and damaged, up to 25 killed and up to 30 wounded.

Judging on angry posts among Russian milbloggers, these losses can be close to the true.

 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

I kinda like it that we can have two pages of Ukraine sinking ships, blowing up convoys 10s of KMs in the rear, destroying training centers, and eliminating HQs without much commentary.  It indicates that these successes are both frequent and routine.  Two very good things when it comes to getting this war concluded on Ukraine's terms!

Having said that, I know I very much appreciate all the postings.  I might not comment on them like I used to, but I watch every video and read every article about these activities.  Why shouldn't I?  I like smiling

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

Some OSINT account posted this earlier, can't believe I forgot to post it here. Well NEXTA has posted it as well . Better late than never.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Second problem.  Just read that Economist report on The Future of War and Ukrainian soldiers are whispering to avoid being picked up by acoustic sensors.  So when they start blasting the sky with shotguns like a Taliban wedding they are going to get picked up pretty damn quick and killed by something else.  This entire damned war is creating major dilemmas for troops on the ground.  Half-assed can get one killed faster than "no-***" in some cases. 

Right now dispersion, camouflage, digging deep, EM and acoustic discipline and moving seem to be the best ways to stay alive. 

In business, we call this 'making perfect the enemy of good.' In your profession I believe the term is 'zero defect mentality'. 

So fine, a proper army (UA) will need tactical training on not acting like drunken duck hunters (mobiks).

Still, in the last analysis, when a Mavic is hunting my specific arse, I'll take some kind of 40mm shotgun shell that *might* kill it now, and take my chances later with the theoretical artillery barrage that the ruckus *might* attract.

The counter(s) have got to be as cheap or cheaper than the threat, we all agreed on that. So surprise! it doesn't also walk the dog and slice bread.

I don't see what is so controversial about this.

[Ultradave]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR artillery or HIMARS has struck Russian supply convoy in Hladkivka village, 25 km south from Kherson, this is Hola Prystan' direction - relatively calm area, distant from Krynky. Russians got too much relax and...

Claimed losses 8 trucks destroyed and damaged, up to 25 killed and up to 30 wounded.

Judging on angry posts among Russian milbloggers, these losses can be close to the true.

 

 

I wonder if they could get MORE bunched up along the road? They might try but I don't think so. What discipline.  You'd think that if you were going to stop for some period of time - even 20 minutes - you'd disperse all the vehicles. It's not like UKR has never used drones for artillery spotting before. At this point it should be SOP anytime there is a halt.

Hell, we did that when there were no drones and we had air superiority!

Dave

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Ultradave said:

I wonder if they could get MORE bunched up along the road? They might try but I don't think so. What discipline.  You'd think that if you were going to stop for some period of time - even 20 minutes - you'd disperse all the vehicles. It's not like UKR has never used drones for artillery spotting before. At this point it should be SOP anytime there is a halt.

Hell, we did that when there were no drones and we had air superiority!

Dave

Yes, but you trusted everyone not to get drunk or disappear. the second they were out of sight of an officer. I don't think the Russians can make that assumption. And actually they did a little better than most of the Russians we have seen caught on the bullseye, some of them floored it an attempt to be anywhere else when things went boom. That is above average for a mobik.

[akd]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like a standard impact explosion to me.  I can believe ERA is able to defeat a Lancet.

Steve

Looks like it penetrated through the turret and out the other side:

Edited November 11, 2023 by akd

[sburke]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

In business, we call this 'making perfect the enemy of good.' In your profession I believe the term is 'zero defect mentality'. 

[sburke]

Ukraine to Putin: You cut our power, we kneecap your biggest economic driver (yahoo.com)

Ukraine is open to the possibility of attacking Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure if Moscow ramps up its targeting of Ukraine’s electric system this winter, Ukraine Energy Minister German Galushchenko said in an interview.

Galushchenko, speaking with POLITICO in Washington, D.C., after meeting with Biden administration officials and lawmakers, said Russia has regularly perpetrated cyberattacks against Ukraine’s electric grid and is expected to ramp up physical attacks as temperatures fall and people depend more on energy to heat their homes.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Looks like it penetrated through the turret and out the other side:

Despite the upbeat text in the Tweet, for sure this Brad didn't survive the hit, unfortunately.  It's never a good sign when flame comes out from the opposite side of an impact, as it clearly does here.  I'm not quite sure what the exit point is, but the flame direction is off center of the line of impact.  Is there some sort of access hatch at the rear of the turret?  If you step through it a little more you can see that there's something on fire in the front right corner.

I would think the Brad's ERA would defeat the Lancet enough that a full through hull penetration wouldn't be a possibility.  However, the ERA package on the Brad leaves a lot of exposed areas.  It seems the Lancet hit in a near perfect spot which is the front corner in front of the engine compartment.  There's no ERA there.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

58 minutes ago, sburke said:

Ukraine to Putin: You cut our power, we kneecap your biggest economic driver (yahoo.com)

Ukraine is open to the possibility of attacking Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure if Moscow ramps up its targeting of Ukraine’s electric system this winter, Ukraine Energy Minister German Galushchenko said in an interview.

Galushchenko, speaking with POLITICO in Washington, D.C., after meeting with Biden administration officials and lawmakers, said Russia has regularly perpetrated cyberattacks against Ukraine’s electric grid and is expected to ramp up physical attacks as temperatures fall and people depend more on energy to heat their homes.

Interesting.  Well, with a 1000km range suicide drone this puts the Black Sea's Blue Stream and oil terminals easily within range.  I don't think major production infrastructure is within range.

The issue for Ukraine is the problems it might cause with allies who still buy from Russia.

Steve

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

In business, we call this 'making perfect the enemy of good.' In your profession I believe the term is 'zero defect mentality'. 

So fine, a proper army (UA) will need tactical training on not acting like drunken duck hunters (mobiks).

Still, in the last analysis, when a Mavic is hunting my specific arse, I'll take some kind of 40mm shotgun shell that *might* kill it now, and take my chances later with the theoretical artillery barrage that the ruckus *might* attract.

The counter(s) have got to be as cheap or cheaper than the threat, we all agreed on that. So surprise! it doesn't also walk the dog and slice bread.

I don't see what is so controversial about this.

No, it is called the “lethal bright idea fairy”.  You are adding a new weapon with a new training and support requirement that probably will not work and may cause more trouble than it solves.  Beyond the noise signature you would also have to worry about troops shooting each other and your own drones.  Training is already a challenge without layering this on top.  This infantry point defence would need thousands, likely tens of thousands of shotguns or weapons modifications so that in the event a drone decides to snuggle the troops may have a slim chance of stopping one.

FFS, an under barrel system is single shot, not even pump.  A new gun to try and keep clean that you get one shot on in the event a drone strikes directly.  All to try and break that string of “mights”.  Crazy idea, troops use the guns we already train them on to fill the sky with lead rather than fumbling around with an anti-drone shotgun.  “Might work of Might not” but give me a 30 round mag over a single shotgun shell please.  Or maybe we could look at a small calibre fragmentation round that fires out of the same weapon

[Battlefront.com]

53 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

No, it is called the “lethal bright idea fairy”.  You are adding a new weapon with a new training and support requirement that probably will not work and may cause more trouble than it solves.  Beyond the noise signature you would also have to worry about troops shooting each other and your own drones.  Training is already a challenge without layering this on top.  This infantry point defence would need thousands, likely tens of thousands of shotguns or weapons modifications so that in the event a drone decides to snuggle the troops may have a slim chance of stopping one.

FFS, an under barrel system is single shot, not even pump.  A new gun to try and keep clean that you get one shot on in the event a drone strikes directly.  All to try and break that string of “mights”.  Crazy idea, troops use the guns we already train them on to fill the sky with lead rather than fumbling around with an anti-drone shotgun.  “Might work of Might not” but give me a 30 round mag over a single shotgun shell please.  Or maybe we could look at a small calibre fragmentation round that fires out of the same weapon

Well, I think the biggest evidence that shotguns aren't the right solution is the fact that earlier in the war both sides were scrambling to get them via volunteers.  Aside from some early signs of them getting to the front, I've not seen a single one since then.  If they were practical and/or effective I doubt we'd be having this discussion... because we'd be seeing them in action.

The most probable reason we don't see them in action is that it just isn't as practical to hit the bastards as it appears to be in theory.  I've shot my fair share of 410g and 12g skeet/trap in my younger days and I think I can understand why they aren't all that practical.

On a range you know where the clay pigeon is coming from and where it is going.  You also can predict its speed and its flight path because the path is predictable once you understand its vector and speed.  Yes, good ranges have multiple houses that can vary both speed and vector, but it's within certain parameters.  Pigeons doesn't suddenly stop, go straight up, then drop down 1m, zig-zag, or zip over your head at 30mph.  Pigeons also don't hover 100m away out of effective range.

We've seen drone operators take evasive action when being shot at just in case someone gets lucky.  If an operator detected a shotgun it would be pretty easy to ensure it wasn't hit.

So, shotguns are theoretically effective only.  Which is likely why we don't see them out there.

Interestingly, I've not seen portable EW guns for a while now.  I'm sure they are still being used, especially by static defensive units, but we were seeing them quite frequently when they were first being mass deployed last year.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Looking at the ISW reports for the last two days, it seems there's been renewed interest by Russia to push back Ukrainian advances north and south of Bakhmut.  Maybe some small tactical gains, but of course some Russian sources seem to think their guys are half way to Romania already.

The implication from ISW's report is that Ukraine is winding down its offensive activities in that area.  Anybody see any other reports of this?  It wouldn't surprise me if they are, at least for the mud season, since it's obvious that any further progress will be slow and costly.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

Mini Gatling guns which can spew 6000 .22s a minute could be successful against drones. But we don't see anything new from that direction.

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Mini Gatling guns which can spew 6000 .22s a minute could be successful against drones. But we don't see anything new from that direction.

There's all kinds of things that can be theoretically effective.  But when you're on the go, who's going to lug something like that around?

Which gets back into the same well worn rut of impractical ideas being suggested because nobody at the frontlines or in various defense industries has come up with anything practical.  Yet pretty much every couple of days we see a brand new drone innovation.  Kinda tells us where this is all headed for a while.

Steve

[Kinophile]

 

Turks are working to defeat top attack. 

[dan/california]

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/11/10/us-marines-vehicles-lasers/#:~:text=According to the company%2C its,effective ground-based air defense.

U.S. seems determined to lose at least one war proving laser based drone defense doesn't work. 

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/10/army-moves-ahead-ukraine-style-bomber-drones/390918/

On the plus side they are finally getting halfway serious about incorporating the basic drone lessons learned in Ukraine. 

[Zeleban]

I remember there was a discussion here about the effectiveness of mine-resistant boots in case of a mine explosion. Here are the results:

 

[Haiduk]

GUR updated information about yeterday strike on harbor in Chornomorske. Previously was claimed two pr.11700 small landing crafts were sunk, now after study of received video GUR made a statement these were small landing crafts pr.1176 and pr.11700. The first one allegedly has sunk very quiclky, the latter one some time left on surface, but also lay down on ground. On one of landing crafts BTR-82A was deployed, which cought fire and its ammo exploded inside. 

On the photo - comparison of superstructure details from the video and from the photo of pr. 1176

Russian divers conduct works of investigation of vessels conditions to lift them up. The harbor of Chornomorske is very shallow, so it will be easy, but all question is the level of damage, which can make repair works senseless, especially for old pr.1176

Here is satellite image aftermath of attack, not quite detailed

 

Location of Chornomorske. This is northern part of Tarkhankut cape. Chornomoprske never hadn't special naval base, but in it harbor light vessels can be deployed if needed. Here is suitable short route for some elements of supplying of garrisons of sea shore of Kherson oblast from Zaliznyi Port to Skadovsk - delivering of repaired vehicles, limited replacing of personnel, food/ammo supply etc. 

 

Before the war BSF had two pr.1170 Serna-class (D-144, D-199) and one pr.1176 Akula-class/ NATO Ondatra-class (D-106) small landing crafts. All they based in Novorossiysk and were attached to 170th minesweeping divizion of 184th Novorossiysk coastal defense brigade. Likely for operational purpose they were moved to western shore of Crimea.

First pr.1170 D-199 was sunk near Zmiinyi in May 2022, so now Russia lost last landing boats from BSF composition, if they din't send here the same vessels from Kaspian flotilia - they deployed some pr.1170 crafts before the war, but still unknown either they still in Black or Azov sea or moved back to Kaspian sea. 

Last known photo of D-106 pr.1176 for June 2023. This small landing craft has 24 m of length and can carry up to 50 tons of cargo (or 1 tank/two light trucks, or 20 men in full equipment)

And here presumably last remained before 9th of November D-144 of pr.1170. She has 25.6 m of length, can carry the same 50 tons of cargo or one tank/two light armor/two light trucks, but unlike pr.1176 can take onboard up to 90 infantry.

Last known photo of D-144, 22nd of September 2022

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Haiduk