How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

37 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

SBU "Alfa" Special force destroyed TOS-1A on Avdiivka direction (more precisely on northern flank, near Novoselivka Druha village, in rear of Krasnohorivka)

This is second TOS-1A destroyed here. Became knowingly, 10th CBRN regimnent of 41st CAA was deployed here. First destroyed TOS-1A belonged the them. Likely this one too. CBRN regiment has three TOS-1A in heavy flamethrowers company.

 

Another TOS!  Great.

I don't know why the Ukrainians have a second drone up in the air to confirm hits on TOS systems.  If I looked out my window at the right moment I could probably see the visual confirmation myself

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

54 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Video of 3rd assault brigade squad, holding own position under intensive mortar fire - several shells hit almost on breastwork of the trench. Soldiers fire at recon Mavic and say this was second shot down drone. Then FPV attacks them, but missed. Soldiers fire at some invisible target in the trees and one cries "Look out FPV!". At the end M113 has arrived to change them on position with other squad

 

It would be interesting to know if that FPV we saw detonating hit its intended target or if all the gunfire got lucky and "winged it".

Steve

[Haiduk]

The weather on Avdiivka direction became better since yesterday. During last two days were mostly clashes in railroad area near coke plant. Russians also pushed off UKR troops from quarry near Vodiane on southern flank

From both sides soldiers write that this is calm before next storm. Russians are finishing deployment of own main forces - units of 21st, 15th, 55th MRBrs, elements of 20th, 150th motor-rifle divisions and 90th tank division. 

According to Mashovets, Russian command very cleverly masked own intentions about moving reserves from Lyman and Kupiansk (more precisely Borova section) to Avdiivka. They have been replenishing units of 2nd  and 41th CAAs in close rear on Lyman direction, spreading misinformation about withdrawing them to rest, substituting them on 25th CAA. Instead this Russian forces had to be moved to Avdiivka in the moment of offensive start. To this time only part of 21st MRBr was deployed there. By the plan, DPR forces had to desorganize UKR defense, demine approaches and capture areas suitable for "finishing punch" from the second echelone of regular Russian troops, which had to close encirclement in Orlivka village area by strikes from north and south. But their plan failed already in first phase, so Russians partially achived own goals, mostly on the north only after second phase, which likely had to finish encirclement. Now they will try this in third time.

In this post DPR milblogegr and participant of assaults blames in the fail of first phase of operation inconsistency of units, invlved in attack plan. His 114th brigade (former 11th regiment "Vostok") did all in time, but neigbours on flanks and second echelone either delayed with attacks or even didn't attack at all. As result a plan to overload UKR artillery with number of moving columns failed and UKR arty (and FPV I must add) got opportunity to deal with reduced number of columns one by one. 

 

Here is "anti-rating of Russian forces involved on Donbas for October". I don't know source of this information and how it reliable, but let it be

Upper left - KIA

Lower left - WIA

Upper right - vehicles losses

Lower right - overall anti-rating

You can see - "champions" here are units, involved near Avdiivka

It's claimed 114th MRBr of DPR llost about 200 KIA/160 WIA as well as about 30 vehicles.

In vehilces losses a champion is 15th MRBr of 2nd CAA - about 35, and the same brigade lost about 140 KIA and 120 WIA

Top rates here hold also 21st MRBr and 1st MRBr of DPR also involved near Avdiivka
 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Now turn to Kherson direction

More messages that Krynky village now under full UKR control, but this is unverified yet and likely are rumors. 

Though even to OSINT data UKR troops expanded own bridgheads:

Here is Krynky control expanding

... And here is bridgehead expanding near railway bridge in area of Pishchanivka

Russians despite all their bravura claims they will clear left bank soon also recognize UKR troops presense in central part of Krynky.

Russians say it's became betetr with ammunition for artillery on Kherson direction and they have a hope for proper command of new-appointed Teplinskiy, but in other TG Russians discuss about problems with elimination of UKR bridgehead:

Our aviation - if they hit target with one of 10 bombs  - that is good enough, but mostly they plow fields with bombs. Our artillery also 1 to 8-9. And after artillery hit at last tarhet with one shell, they stop fire. They have ammo limit of 13 shells for a day, maximum 18. From these shells 8 in fields somewhere near the target, if one at last hit tree-plant, our infantry apploud. So, comrads this is piztets, full pizdets.

For one our Mavic they have full platoon of own Mavics. We hadn't Mavics with thermals, but they have. We have [in army] cheap FPV drones for 30000 Ru (approx. 320$), but they can lift a pack of cigarettes [I think they exaggregate] and we haven't [in our units here] even them, so we buy working variants for 70-80000 RU [from volunteers]. Our generals thought kamikadze drones for 30000 Ru will be effective. Lough. When this blyadstvo will end in our MoD?  

 

 

[danfrodo]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Now turn to Kherson direction

More messages that Krynky village now under full UKR control, but this is unverified yet and likely are rumors. 

Though even to OSINT data UKR troops expanded own bridgheads:

Here is Krynky control expanding

... And here is bridgehead expanding near railway bridge in area of Pishchanivka

Russians despite all their bravura claims they will clear left bank soon also recognize UKR troops presense in central part of Krynky.

Russians say it's became betetr with ammunition for artillery on Kherson direction and they have a hope for proper command of new-appointed Teplinskiy, but in other TG Russians discuss about problems with elimination of UKR bridgehead:

Our aviation - if they hit target with one of 10 bombs  - that is good enough, but mostly they plow fields with bombs. Our artillery also 1 to 8-9. And after artillery hit at last tarhet with one shell, they stop fire. They have ammo limit of 13 shells for a day, maximum 18. From these shells 8 in fields somewhere near the target, if one at last hit tree-plant, our infantry apploud. So, comrads this is piztets, full pizdets.

For one our Mavic they have full platoon of own Mavics. We hadn't Mavics with thermals, but they have. We have [in army] cheap FPV drones for 30000 Ru (approx. 320$), but they can lift a pack of cigarettes [I think they exaggregate] and we haven't [in our units here] even them, so we buy working variants for 70-80000 RU [from volunteers]. Our generals thought kamikadze drones for 30000 Ru will be effective. Lough. When this blyadstvo will end in our MoD?  

 

 

Haiduk, thanks for the great posts today.  Now, once again, I am on the "maybe UKR will cross the river in real strength to make a real difference" thing again, even though I've fallen for this a dozen times now.  Each time disappointed yet I still hope that this one is different.

[Haiduk]

Elimination of Russian assault group somewhere on Bakhmut direction. Video of National Police assault brigade "Liut' " (eng. Rage) 

Reportedly Russians now move additional reinfrcements there and again activated own counter-attacks. 

Russian milblogger сomplains, most of these attacks now conduct by Shtorm/Shtorm Z units, but without proper artillery support, so often these groups even can't approach to UKR positions for skirmish fight. He told the level of irrecoverable losses in Shtorm Z companies can be 40-70 % after each attack. Main reason - poor training and total dominance of UKR artilelry and mortars, which don't allow to evacuate wounded, which raise number of KIA. By the same reason more equipped and motivated "Shtorm" units also didn't have success. 

I can add, in last time not only convicts go to Shtorm Z. Many Russian soldiers reject to go in fight and as a punishment commanders transfer them to Shtorm Z units, which more and more turn similar to penalty units of Red Army of WWII. Main reason of refusals is moral exhausting of soldiers, who several months live in dirty trenches with short-time rest in close rear without vacations to home. Many of them hadn't vacations through 9 months. Russian milblogger told one of reason of Avdiivka fail is moral exhausting of infantry - many of them had a hope about vacations, but instead got an order to prepare for assaults. This heavily struck their moral, so there were episodes, when in first days of offensive some units just rejected to go forward despite UKR positions were destroyed by artillery and bombs and it's left onlly seize them almost withoit fight.    

Edited October 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Haiduk, thanks for the great posts today.  Now, once again, I am on the "maybe UKR will cross the river in real strength to make a real difference" thing again, even though I've fallen for this a dozen times now.  Each time disappointed yet I still hope that this one is different.

If this happen, this is not short-time perspective. I think close objective will be expanding of bridgheads in depth and joining them between each other.

Russian on Lost Armor discuss that likely no need to eliminate UKR bridgeheads, because they don't threaten really and even can be used with profit, attracting here UKR troops for grindering. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[NamEndedAllen]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russian-air-defense-system-struck-in-crimea

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff said on Telegram that its forces “successfully hit a strategic target of the air defense system on the west coast of temporarily occupied Crimea on the night of 29-30 October."

The independent Russian media collective ASTRA and the Kremlin-connected Rybar Telegram channel offered more details, saying the system hit was near Olenevka on Cape Tarkhankut.

Rybar said the attack was carried out by Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) munitions, which would mark the first known use of that ballistic missile in Crimea. ASTRA said the attack injured several Russian troops.

The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) did not comment on that attack. The War Zone could not independently verify any of the claims. However, the strike on the air defense system appears to be part of what the Russian MoD said was a wider Ukrainian attack across Crimea.”

[akd]

Another example of dropping mix of HE / DPICM on targets:

 

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

He told the level of irrecoverable losses in Shtorm Z companies can be 40-70 % after each attack.

good lord, how can they sustain these losses?   Oh, wait, now I sound like German General Staff in 1941.  Yikes.

[Fenris]

Seen these?  Difficult to really see the outcome, obviously damage was done to a fairly large RU formation.  Lots of riders visible at the 0:15.

More destroyed vehicles. 

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Fenris

[Fenris]

Hopefully this statement is correct

Quote

Head of the Avdiivka military administration Vitaliy Barabash reports that Terrykon (waste heap as some call it) is under fire control of the Ukrainian army.

"All who climb there, die," he noted.

 

 

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Dude, good lord.  As Steve has signalled we are getting way off track here but if you are going to take a position…how about some proof before we turn all the way into an INCEL echo chamber?

Here are counter points that took about 10 seconds to find:

https://www.cfr.org/womens-participation-in-global-economy/#

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/09/27/sp092722-ggopinath-kgef-gender-korea

https://eige.europa.eu/newsroom/economic-benefits-gender-equality?language_content_entity=en

As to demographic trend…yeesh been hearing this old song for forty years.  People don’t have fewer children because women get jobs.  They have fewer children because they can’t afford them.  So we are at distribution of wealth.  A living wage.  Social program and a bunch of issues that basically hold a society together.  Immigration (oh let’s light that fuse).  And a bunch of other stuff that really drags this thread sideways.

Move along now.  Nothing to see here.

 

Also, in the US housing is much more expensive because we live in far more square footage than we used to per capita. The 'good ole days'....weren't.

[sburke]

38 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Also, in the US housing is much more expensive because we live in far more square footage than we used to per capita. The 'good ole days'....weren't.

I live in a house built in 1941 and it hasn't been expanded.    The price however......   

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Seen these?  Difficult to really see the outcome, obviously damage was done to a fairly large RU formation.  Lots of riders visible at the 0:15.

More destroyed vehicles. 

 

The first video shows a very large assembly area getting hammered.  Ukraine has hit stuff in this area before, so WTF were these morons thinking about forming up for an attack right there?  Apologies to the morons out there, I don't mean to insult you.

The second video contains yet another view of the infamous slaughter of the BTRs.  I don't know about the rest of it.

Steve

[acrashb]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

They do, but rarely for social causes.  Social stress and failure is normally a symptom of failure, not a root cause.

Really good series here:

https://www.youtube.com/@FallofCivilizations

And of course Jared Diamonds "Collapse" and others like him do the subject justice.  Demographics are also normally a symptom, not a cause.

Fair enough, and I agree that birth rates etc. are a symptom.  Having said that, if one of COVIDs symptoms is lungs failing, we can treat that while waiting for a course of Paxlovid to get rid of the underlying virus.

Thanks for the youtube series, I'll look at it.

Regards Collapse, unless it is a significant step up from "guns, germs and steel", which contained a fair number of fundamental mistakes (my study notes are long gone) and ignored the pivotal role of social technology, while I appreciate the reference I'll leave it on the shelf.

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

According to Mashovets, Russian command very cleverly masked own intentions about moving reserves from Lyman and Kupiansk (more precisely Borova section) to Avdiivka.

Clever enough to fool the OSINT watchers perhaps, but it seems Ukraine's military intelligence knew this was happening and that is one reason the first wave of Russians were defeated so thoroughly.  I don't mind being fooled as long as Ukraine isn't.

Trying to figure out what Russia sacrificed to make this Avdiivka attack happen is critical to having some sense of what might happen this winter.

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

They have been replenishing units of 2nd  and 41th CAAs in close rear on Lyman direction, spreading misinformation about withdrawing them to rest, substituting them on 25th CAA. Instead this Russian forces had to be moved to Avdiivka in the moment of offensive start.

This is a critical point which became apparent within a day or two of the offensive starting.  Russia withdrew established units, refreshed them but did not rest them in any significant way.  Instead they were sent south to Avdiivka and the incomplete trained 25th CCA was put in their place.  Now we see at least one Russian mil blogger reporting that the DPR forces, which formed the first wave, were similarly refreshed but not rested.  The blogger even stated that they were lied to, which is totally plausible.

So what is it we have here?  Russia refreshed burnt out forces from Lyman and around Avdiivka with replacements of equipment and soldiers.  Probably quite quickly too.  The withdrawn units were kept out of the front only as long as this process took, then they were thrown back into the line along with Storm Z (punishment units) with the purpose of taking Avdiivka by storm.

The first wave, as noted, was heavily armored and backed up by artillery.  This force was supposed to break the back of the Ukrainian defenses which would allow a second force, also heavily armored, to exploit.  The first set of attacks failed miserably so the second force was committed to achieve what the first force failed to do.  It too was largely defeated in spectacular fashion.  Now the third force, which was never intended to take fortified positions, is lacking armor and artillery support because it was never intended to break through fortified positions.  As a result, it too is getting shredded.

Throughout this we're seeing plenty of evidence that Russia isn't concerned enough about its supply of cannon fodder to change it's practices one iota.  Line units are not being properly rotated (a situation true for the entire war so far), new soldiers are given poor training (and new accusations of a return to no equipment), commanders don't care or are overridden if they do, and the coordination of forces is abysmal.

I want to stress the last point.  When the Avdiivka operation started there were many voices that said this attack was something new and showed Russia had "learned" how to conduct a large scale coordinated attack.  My point the was, and still is, that Russia has always had the ability to conduct large scale coordinated attacks.  The thing they have always lacked, and still lack, is the ability to coordinate the flow of the battle.  It's like some nOoB booting up an RTS game, building a bunch of stuff, deciding where and when to attack, then lassoing bunches of units and giving them singular orders.  Any jack arse can do that. It is not a sign of skill.

That sound about right to people?

Steve

 

[acrashb]

7 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Sorry for the off-topic!

[...]

It’s just that social issues often do have major social ramifications.

Not sure it's really off-topic.  It affects a combatant's Will. Look at Afghanistan - the armed forces folded during / after the US' etc. abrupt withdrawal, because of Will.

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Clever enough to fool the OSINT watchers perhaps, but it seems Ukraine's military intelligence knew this was happening and that is one reason the first wave of Russians were defeated so thoroughly.  I don't mind being fooled as long as Ukraine isn't.

Trying to figure out what Russia sacrificed to make this Avdiivka attack happen is critical to having some sense of what might happen this winter.

This is a critical point which became apparent within a day or two of the offensive starting.  Russia withdrew established units, refreshed them but did not rest them in any significant way.  Instead they were sent south to Avdiivka and the incomplete trained 25th CCA was put in their place.  Now we see at least one Russian mil blogger reporting that the DPR forces, which formed the first wave, were similarly refreshed but not rested.  The blogger even stated that they were lied to, which is totally plausible.

So what is it we have here?  Russia refreshed burnt out forces from Lyman and around Avdiivka with replacements of equipment and soldiers.  Probably quite quickly too.  The withdrawn units were kept out of the front only as long as this process took, then they were thrown back into the line along with Storm Z (punishment units) with the purpose of taking Avdiivka by storm.

The first wave, as noted, was heavily armored and backed up by artillery.  This force was supposed to break the back of the Ukrainian defenses which would allow a second force, also heavily armored, to exploit.  The first set of attacks failed miserably so the second force was committed to achieve what the first force failed to do.  It too was largely defeated in spectacular fashion.  Now the third force, which was never intended to take fortified positions, is lacking armor and artillery support because it was never intended to break through fortified positions.  As a result, it too is getting shredded.

Throughout this we're seeing plenty of evidence that Russia isn't concerned enough about its supply of cannon fodder to change it's practices one iota.  Line units are not being properly rotated (a situation true for the entire war so far), new soldiers are given poor training (and new accusations of a return to no equipment), commanders don't care or are overridden if they do, and the coordination of forces is abysmal.

I want to stress the last point.  When the Avdiivka operation started there were many voices that said this attack was something new and showed Russia had "learned" how to conduct a large scale coordinated attack.  My point the was, and still is, that Russia has always had the ability to conduct large scale coordinated attacks.  The thing they have always lacked, and still lack, is the ability to coordinate the flow of the battle.  It's like some nOoB booting up an RTS game, building a bunch of stuff, deciding where and when to attack, then lassoing bunches of units and giving them singular orders.  Any jack arse can do that. It is not a sign of skill.

That sound about right to people?

Steve

 

It sounds about right to this guy...

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

It sounds about right to this guy...

It should, because I used him as a source (via Haiduk)

Steve

[Fenris]

Bit OT - in relation to the mob at the airport in Dagestan, Visegrad posted this meme which gave me a laugh.

[Zeleban]

 

Another thread from the telegram channel of the Russian Nazis. They criticize the low quality of domestic FPV drones. According to them, these drones have a maximum range of only 900 meters. Because of this, the FPV crew was forced to approach the Ukrainian positions for launch and quickly died

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

Another thread from the telegram channel of the Russian Nazis. They criticize the low quality of domestic FPV drones. According to them, these drones have a maximum range of only 900 meters. Because of this, the FPV crew was forced to approach the Ukrainian positions for launch and quickly died

Yes, but the oligarch and his inside man in the MoD who got the contract to make these things didn't.  In fact, they just bought a whole bunch of black market Western goods with the money they saved on not providing their soldiers what they really need.  So let's celebrate this way of Russians being Russians

Steve

[Zeleban]

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/povernys-zhyvym-peredav-pershi-spetsialni-prytsily-dlya-mk-19/

The design department of the "come back alive" foundation has developed an artillery-type sight for the mk 19 grenade launcher. This sight allows indirect fire from this grenade launcher. The fund managed to collect 13 million UAH, which will provide 150 grenade launcher crews. Previously, the Ukrainian military complained that the mk19 does not have sights for indirect fire, unlike the AGS-17. The capabilities of this support weapon will now be expanded

[Lethaface]

On 10/30/2023 at 10:43 AM, Zeleban said:

Nothing surprising. This is called concatenation. This thing has been spoiling the mood of programmers from all over the world for a long time. 

Now try teaching a nano computer to do basic math functions like additions and subtractions efficiently 

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Lethaface