How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

It's been a while since we've talked about the Gnome.  Here's today's report from ISW on the subject:

Quote

The Kremlin’s support for ultranationalist Russian Orthodox religion and ideology appears to be complicating Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s ability to balance appealing to his Chechen Muslim constituencies with keeping the Kremlin’s favor. Kadyrov delivered inconsistent and potentially inflammatory domestic religious messaging on October 24, suggesting that he is struggling to reconcile his enthusiastic support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has routinely postured himself as the true protector of the Orthodox Christian faith, and Kadyrov's own persona as a staunch representative of Chechnya’s Islamic values. Kadyrov's son Adam recently ignited a notable domestic outcry in Russia against his father after Ramzan touted footage of Adam beating a detainee accused of burning the Quran.[13] Republic of Tatarstan Head Rustam Minnikhanov and Karachay-Cherkess Republic Head Rashid Temrezov awarded Adam Kadyrov for developing “interethnic and interregional unity” and strengthening traditional Islamic values on October 24, an event that Kadyrov used to praise his son further despite the blowback against Adam's actions.[14] Kadyrov likely tried to balance the potentially inflammatory effects of publicly supporting his son's violence with publicly announcing the opening of an Orthodox Church in Chechnya alongside Rosgvardia Head Viktor Zolotov on October 25.[15]

Kadyrov promptly upset whatever informational effects he may have generated in balancing his response to Adam's awards with his meeting with Zolotov by announcing the creation of the “Sheikh Mansur” volunteer battalion. This announcement generated outrage from Russian ultranationalists because “Sheikh Mansur” is also the name of a volunteer battalion comprised of Chechen and Ichkerian volunteers fighting for Ukraine.[16] Sheikh Mansur was a Chechen fighter from the 18th Century who opposed Russian imperial rule. Kadyrov will likely continue to draw the ire of Russian ultranationalists who are increasingly opposed to migrants who come from predominantly Muslim Central Asian countries and other religious minorities in Russia with his continued efforts to appeal to his core Muslim constituencies.[17]

Stress between the Russian Orthodox and Islamic faiths is definitely going to someday become a bigger deal than just angry people.  Both sides have too much of their identity invested in their contradictory beliefs.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

47 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

On the contrary.

Yeah honestly I was thinking of Paris Hilton saying “That’s hot”

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Sojourner said:

OK, I get that, I misread that part  the first time through. More of what I had in mind when I posted was an earlier comment - something to the effect  that one shouldn’t waste a missile that cost x-times more than the target (threat). In that regard, what I was trying to get across is that one needs to consider the cost of not destroying the threat.

For sure this is super important to consider.  The problem with that logic (and I'm definitely not pointing at you here) is that it's used as an excuse to make yet more expensive stuff to protect the expensive stuff we already have. 

We had a lot of that sort of discussion here last year when the threats to MBTs were starting to sink in.  Defenders of MBTs (and other vehicles) said "easy, just put APS on it.  Sure, it's expensive, but it's worth it because the MBT is so expensive".  The fact that there is no APS in existence that can protect an MBT from all angles from drone threats produced the "well, then we just have to make better APS".  Those opposing this point of view pointed out the pointlessness of going down the road of bigger, heavier, more expensive, and therefore fewer assets protected by ever more expensive defenses which don't really solve the problem.

This sort of solving challenges by shoveling money at it is not new, nor is the logic defending it.  What is new is that a wide array of existing military hardware is basically obsolete nearly overnight and the defense industry has no remedy.  The haphazard proposals we've seen so far are as expensive as they are inadequate.

I don't know what the future holds for us, but my gut tells me that the status quo in Western forces will continue largely unchanged for the foreseeable future.  Too many minds to change and far too many defense industry lobbyists working to ignore reality.

Steve

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

Maybe we could run a book on how long he'll last, with the profit being used to fund the next package.

I've got $5 on 8 days ...

I wonder if he'll last longer than a head of lettuce... 

[Kinophile]

Speaking of vegetables.... 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kraft]

Quote

The battle for Avdiivka: due to heavy losses, the Russians transfer reserves and continue the offensive, the situation has escalated

 

 On October 25, the Russian command continued its assault along the entire perimeter of the defense of Avdiyivka, and along a narrow corridor from the village of Krasnohorivka to the north of the city. The Russian infantrymen were covered with all kinds of weapons, the enemy was well seen. The Russians rotated and replaced the knocked out assault units, and threw reserves into battle.

 

Units of the 110th mechanized brigade successfully repelled all attacks directly on Avdiivka.

But the situation north of Avdiivka seriously worsened. Despite heavy losses, the Russian assault units north of Avdiivka advanced along the railway track, occupied an area up to 1 km wide, trying to expand the controlled corridor and create conditions for the concentration of forces and further offensive in the direction of Stepove-Berdychi, and in the direction of the industrial zone of the Avdiivka coke plant. This is a very serious threat that needs maximum attention. The enemy hopes to gain a foothold in the factory building and gain a bridgehead to enter the city. To the south of Avdiivka, Russian troops continue their attacks with the aim of seizing a sand quarry near the village of Opytne.

 

Since the rate of losses for the Russian group near Avdiivka is unacceptable, the Russian command withdraws significant forces from the Kupyan direction to continue the infantry attacks. Avdiyivka has much more strategic importance for Ukraine than even Bakhmut. The Russian command will want to show success here at any cost. The tactical situation for the destruction of Russian strike formations is very favorable here. But our advantages must be realized in full. It is not the number of people in uniform that can stop the Russian infantry, and not the number of different units and flags on the map, but qualitatively organized, coordinated and controlled fresh units. And all such reserves are needed right here in order to destroy the Russians precisely in the narrow corridor in which they are fighting. I hope that all the necessary reserves that we have will be directed to the Avdiivka district.

 

The situation in Avdiivka is escalating and there is a battle going on, in which the enemy is throwing its main forces, a battle that we, if necessary, have every chance of winning if we concentrate our forces. But this requires quick, timely and systematic actions, not words and wishes.

I guess that puts an end to the southern offensive.

I hope Soledar/Bakhmut does not repeat, because this will be even uglier.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Kraft

[Kinophile]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cytkl5mPEUX/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

Multi link flying drone that can change its shape midflight. Couple this with AI and who knows, man,  who knows. 

Really,  only The Matrix has envisioned what the next war might be like. 

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cytkl5mPEUX/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

Multi link flying drone that can change its shape midflight. Couple this with AI and who knows, man,  who knows. 

Really,  only The Matrix has envisioned what the next war might be like. 

Now this is just unfair.

That thing will land on your tank, clean the optics, collect 2 dollars for services and place a thermite bomb under the side of the turret while you are looking for change.

[Rokko]

 

First person POV of a DPICM strike. What surprised me was the relatively long time before the bomblets went off.

[Sekai]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

I guess that puts an end to the southern offensive.

I hope Soledar/Bakhmut does not repeat, because this will be even uglier.

Wagner lost 10's of thousands in the Bakhmut offensive, if they are determined to do the same here - Ukraine should welcome them with open arms.

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't know what the future holds for us, but my gut tells me that the status quo in Western forces will continue largely unchanged for the foreseeable future.  Too many minds to change and far too many defense industry lobbyists working to ignore reality.

We will try and negotiate with it.  The threads of this negotiation are already there.  The narratives of “Silly Ukrainians, Silly Russians” are all basically saying “well sure, in Ukraine…but we would do it better”.  This sort of collective denial will be subtle and deep, at a cultural level.

Then as evidence mounts we will try and take these new technologies and bolt them onto our existing systems and doctrine.  In the west, our military tactics and units have not really changed that much since WW2.  The TF/BG concept has had all new tech bolted onto it and Unmanned will be as well.  We will spend billions on counters to try and protect that old concept.  But as you note we won’t be able to, the shifts are too big.

Next, we will get all “out of the box” and create experimental units and doctrine that looks good on the surface but in reality is designed to fail.  This will validate that the old orgs and doctrine were right all along.  We normally do this by half-measures - we do not build a complete coherent experimental system.  We just take away the old stuff.

Then we will hit a forcing function.  A real world disaster that we cannot negotiate with or ignore.  It will cost a bunch of teenagers their lives.  Then we will scramble to try and realign.  It will be expensive and brutal.  After that, well the whole thing becomes a dice roll.  It didn’t have to be, but this is where sunk cost fallacies get you.

Air-Land warfare has changed.  More, it is continuing to change.  It isn’t just the pace, it is the depth.  Fundamentals and foundational principles are challenged (eg Surprise, Concentration, Mission Command).  This is not simply “a better tank killer”, this is stuff that breaks force ratios, tempo, and basic utility of what we thought was combined arms.  The death of how we used to do minefield breaching ops is just the latest in a very long line of doctrine that look more and more obsolete.  I strongly suspect that joint warfare as a whole is shifting under our feet.  RMA has finally landed with a big enough bang to get our attention.

What will follow the Russo-Ukraine war will be a decade long argument.  But in the end, everyone in charge will have come up in the old system.  Further, we do not really promote radical Tesla-type disruptors to be GOs in modern militaries.  So we are looking at a pretty conservative bunch steeped in a conservative military culture and doctrine.  Oh, and with a trillion dollar defence industry tooled for stuff we had for the last 80 years.

Not a good start.

Edited October 26, 2023 by The_Capt

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Sekai said:

Wagner lost 10's of thousands in the Bakhmut offensive, if they are determined to do the same here - Ukraine should welcome them with open arms.

Nobody cares for Russian convicts, not even russians care about them. Its free manpower to throw away with no families to pay or suppress. They come at minimal political costs to Putin, while achieving goals just the same. 

This war is not won by reducing Russian penal colonies to 0, or whoever minority edge group they will gang press into service next, I hear Muslims are on the menu now.

On the other hand.. Loosing fortress town Avdiivka and having a retreat slaughter through a narrow path like this, overlooked by the heap and FPV drones,..,.. would be worse than Soledar collapse in scale and severity militarily, and another political loss after failing to reach Tokmak and losing Bakhmut.

So all I do is hope and donate to the 110th, so It doesnt come to this.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Kraft

[Jr Buck Private]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This just underscores the threat from drones.  Already plentiful and growing exponentially.  Good thing the Pentagon is getting ready to field 4 defense systems in 2 years!

(sorry, couldn't help myself)

Steve

As devastating as the Hamas attack was, now imagine if they could produce thousands of these types of drones!   Definitely a "destabilizing" type of weapon for the world.   

[akd]

Another Russian mine-roller tank working and dying (warning, more flaming Russians at a distance):

 

[Bearstronaut]

56 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We will try and negotiate with it.  The threads of this negotiation are already there.  The narratives of “Silly Ukrainians, Silly Russians” are all basically saying “well sure, in Ukraine…but we would do it better”.  This sort of collective denial will be subtle and deep, at a cultural level.

Then as evidence mounts we will try and take these new technologies and bolt them onto our existing systems and doctrine.  In the west, our military tactics and units have not really changed that much since WW2.  The TF/BG concept has had all new tech bolted onto it and Unmanned will be as well.  We will spend billions on counters to try and protect that old concept.  But as you note we won’t be able to, the shifts are too big.

Next, we will get all “out of the box” and create experimental units and doctrine that looks good on the surface but in reality is designed to fail.  This will validate that the old orgs and doctrine were right all along.  We normally do this by half-measures - we do not build a complete coherent experimental system.  We just take away the old stuff.

Then we will hit a forcing function.  A real world disaster that we cannot negotiate with or ignore.  It will cost a bunch of teenagers their lives.  Then we will scramble to try and realign.  It will be expensive and brutal.  After that, well the whole thing becomes a dice roll.  It didn’t have to be, but this is where sunk cost fallacies get you.

Air-Land warfare has changed.  More, it is continuing to change.  It isn’t just the pace, it is the depth.  Fundamentals and foundational principles are challenged (eg Surprise, Concentration, Mission Command).  This is not simply “a better tank killer”, this is stuff that breaks force ratios, tempo, and basic utility of what we thought was combined arms.  The death of how we used to do minefield breaching ops is just the latest in a very long line of doctrine that look more and more obsolete.  I strongly suspect that joint warfare as a whole is shifting under our feet.  RMA has finally landed with a big enough bang to get our attention.

What will follow the Russo-Ukraine war will be a decade long argument.  But in the end, everyone in charge will have come up in the old system.  Further, we do not really promote radical Tesla-type disruptors to be GOs in modern militaries.  So we are looking at a pretty conservative bunch steeped in a conservative military culture and doctrine.  Oh, and with a trillion dollar defence industry tooled for stuff we had for the last 80 years.

Not a good start.

Do you think the IDF losing a bunch of tanks and AFVs to Hamas when they inevitably push into Gaza will have any affect on the calculus? Or will they handwave it away with the "urban warfare" excuse?

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

Another Russian mine-roller tank working and dying (warning, more flaming Russians at a distance):

 

What a gong show.  Some observations:

-Density of minefield based on detonations is just nuts.

- Mine rollers can sustain about 5-6 hits depending on the mine.  They are designed for detection and proving, not clearing...as this tank found out the hard way.

- About mid-way you can see them hit an AP mine strip (the small detonations)

- Crew panicked and paid for it.  One does not slalom through a minefield.  One definitely does not turn around and try drive back through it.

- Tank is by itself.  Seeing more and more of this.  Lone tanks rolling through minefields or being brought forward for discrete sniping job.  This looks more and more like assault gun work.  I expect someone is going to put a direct fire mortar on an IFV to do a better job of it. 

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

Do you think the IDF losing a bunch of tanks and AFVs to Hamas when they inevitably push into Gaza will have any affect on the calculus? Or will they handwave it away with the "urban warfare" excuse?

Right?!  One of the first videos I saw was a Merkava getting taken out Ukrainian style.  I expect it will be "low intensity/terrorist" handwaving like when we saw when ISIL do the same thing in Iraq.  The military community will likely split up into camps on this whole thing - kinda like we did here.  "It is a fad.  We have heard it before."  "Interesting, but we have counters...please say we have counters." and "Holy Sweet Mother of God! What just happened?"  The people in charge tend to come from the first or second camp.

The evidence is mounting though.  Any professional worth their salt cannot be saying "it will be fine" after watching this war closely. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

We will try and negotiate with it.  The threads of this negotiation are already there.  The narratives of “Silly Ukrainians, Silly Russians” are all basically saying “well sure, in Ukraine…but we would do it better”.  This sort of collective denial will be subtle and deep, at a cultural level.

Then as evidence mounts we will try and take these new technologies and bolt them onto our existing systems and doctrine.  In the west, our military tactics and units have not really changed that much since WW2.  The TF/BG concept has had all new tech bolted onto it and Unmanned will be as well.  We will spend billions on counters to try and protect that old concept.  But as you note we won’t be able to, the shifts are too big.

Next, we will get all “out of the box” and create experimental units and doctrine that looks good on the surface but in reality is designed to fail.  This will validate that the old orgs and doctrine were right all along.  We normally do this by half-measures - we do not build a complete coherent experimental system.  We just take away the old stuff.

Then we will hit a forcing function.  A real world disaster that we cannot negotiate with or ignore.  It will cost a bunch of teenagers their lives.  Then we will scramble to try and realign.  It will be expensive and brutal.  After that, well the whole thing becomes a dice roll.  It didn’t have to be, but this is where sunk cost fallacies get you.

Air-Land warfare has changed.  More, it is continuing to change.  It isn’t just the pace, it is the depth.  Fundamentals and foundational principles are challenged (eg Surprise, Concentration, Mission Command).  This is not simply “a better tank killer”, this is stuff that breaks force ratios, tempo, and basic utility of what we thought was combined arms.  The death of how we used to do minefield breaching ops is just the latest in a very long line of doctrine that look more and more obsolete.  I strongly suspect that joint warfare as a whole is shifting under our feet.  RMA has finally landed with a big enough bang to get our attention.

What will follow the Russo-Ukraine war will be a decade long argument.  But in the end, everyone in charge will have come up in the old system.  Further, we do not really promote radical Tesla-type disruptors to be GOs in modern militaries.  So we are looking at a pretty conservative bunch steeped in a conservative military culture and doctrine.  Oh, and with a trillion dollar defence industry tooled for stuff we had for the last 80 years.

Not a good start.

 

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Right?!  One of the first videos I saw was a Merkava getting taken out Ukrainian style.  I expect it will be "low intensity/terrorist" handwaving like when we saw when ISIL do the same thing in Iraq.  The military community will likely split up into camps on this whole thing - kinda like we did here.  "It is a fad.  We have heard it before."  "Interesting, but we have counters...please say we have counters." and "Holy Sweet Mother of God! What just happened?"  The people in charge tend to come from the first or second camp.

The evidence is mounting though.  Any professional worth their salt cannot be saying "it will be fine" after watching this war closely. 

The U.S. Army's seemingly steadfast determination to buy a new generation of manned helicopters is high on my list of bad signs.

[Bearstronaut]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

The U.S. Army's seemingly steadfast determination to buy a new generation of manned helicopters is high on my list of bad signs.

"But what else are we gonna do with all those warrant officers we gave ten year ADSOs to?"

-HQDA

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

"But what else are we gonna do with all those warrant officers we gave ten year ADSOs to?"

-HQDA

My only slightly crazy idea would be to establish a new army fire fighting aviation unit. The Forest Service has been looking a bit overwhelmed.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

Nobody cares for Russian convicts, not even russians care about them. Its free manpower to throw away with no families to pay or suppress. They come at minimal political costs to Putin, while achieving goals just the same. 

This war is not won by reducing Russian penal colonies to 0, or whoever minority edge group they will gang press into service next, I hear Muslims are on the menu now.

On the other hand.. Loosing fortress town Avdiivka and having a retreat slaughter through a narrow path like this, overlooked by the heap and FPV drones,..,.. would be worse than Soledar collapse in scale and severity militarily, and another political loss after failing to reach Tokmak and losing Bakhmut.

So all I do is hope and donate to the 110th, so It doesnt come to this.

The key point here seems to be missed.  Russia was able to maintain the attack on Bakhmut because the Russian population believed:

1. Wagner - highly paid volunteers and it's none of our business what they do with them
2. Convicts - nobody cares about them, so good riddance

Guess what two things Russia now lacks?  Yup, same two things.

If Russia engages in a meat grinder offensive on the scale of Bakhmut it will not go well if they suffer similar casualties.  First, the MoD will be responsible for replacing each dead soldier and it seems to be concerned it's running out of options on that front (see previous comments about rounding up immigrants).  Second, there is no ready pool of tens of thousands of completely disposable manpower any more. 

Therefore, the Russian regime will suffer consequences of some sort or another if they try for another Bakhmut.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Right?!  One of the first videos I saw was a Merkava getting taken out Ukrainian style.  I expect it will be "low intensity/terrorist" handwaving like when we saw when ISIL do the same thing in Iraq.  The military community will likely split up into camps on this whole thing - kinda like we did here.  "It is a fad.  We have heard it before."  "Interesting, but we have counters...please say we have counters." and "Holy Sweet Mother of God! What just happened?"  The people in charge tend to come from the first or second camp.

The evidence is mounting though.  Any professional worth their salt cannot be saying "it will be fine" after watching this war closely. 

Yes, all of this.

Your earlier comments about solutions that are "built to fail" is most likely already in the works.  There is probably already work being done on proposals to come up with a new force concept from the ground up.  Except that starting parameters will ensure that's never going to happen.  Then as things go on more restrictions will be added so that the concepts don't stray too far away from what already exists.  In the end we'll get a preview of this new force and it will look a lot like the old force except with placeholders for technologies that don't yet exist.  Years will go by with massive spending that will, in the end, produce something that doesn't achieve any of the original need.

We saw this with the Stryker to some extent when the Pentagon finally, and correctly, realized there was a need for a Medium weight force on wheels.  They also wanted to do it quickly and cheaply, so they selected the LAV III as a basis and went from there.  Unfortunately, they kept adding stuff to the vehicles and to the force structure that negated or reduced the primary goal for the force; rapid deployability anywhere in the globe.

That said, the Stryker vehicles and force structure has a lot of positives over Heavy BCTs and they are definitely a benefit to the traditional military toolbox.  But they were more expensive than predicted and less deployable than desired.

The worrisome thing here is that the Stryker concept was never supposed to be a radical departure for the Army, rather a comparatively modest augmentation of the status quo.  And even then it was a struggle.  It's not hard to imagine why the military isn't really capable of proactively building a brand new force.

Steve

[hcrof]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, all of this.

Your earlier comments about solutions that are "built to fail" is most likely already in the works.  There is probably already work being done on proposals to come up with a new force concept from the ground up.  Except that starting parameters will ensure that's never going to happen.  Then as things go on more restrictions will be added so that the concepts don't stray too far away from what already exists.  In the end we'll get a preview of this new force and it will look a lot like the old force except with placeholders for technologies that don't yet exist.  Years will go by with massive spending that will, in the end, produce something that doesn't achieve any of the original need.

We saw this with the Stryker to some extent when the Pentagon finally, and correctly, realized there was a need for a Medium weight force on wheels.  They also wanted to do it quickly and cheaply, so they selected the LAV III as a basis and went from there.  Unfortunately, they kept adding stuff to the vehicles and to the force structure that negated or reduced the primary goal for the force; rapid deployability anywhere in the globe.

That said, the Stryker vehicles and force structure has a lot of positives over Heavy BCTs and they are definitely a benefit to the traditional military toolbox.  But they were more expensive than predicted and less deployable than desired.

The worrisome thing here is that the Stryker concept was never supposed to be a radical departure for the Army, rather a comparatively modest augmentation of the status quo.  And even then it was a struggle.  It's not hard to imagine why the military isn't really capable of proactively building a brand new force.

Steve

Would you put the UKs recon-strike concept and urban phalanx experiments in that bucket? On the face of it there are some pretty radical changes afoot. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/10/demand-arms-booms-lack-modernization-stymies-weapons-production/391533/

However, deep within defense firms' logistic chains lurks a hidden problem. Some smaller firms, as well as government-owned production facilities, are using a range of outdated equipment—from fax machines to 1980s era software—according to MxD, a Defense-Department funded institute charged with increasing digitization in the defense industrial base. 

 

 

Quote

 

https://www.heraldnet.com/business/boeing-takes-787-supplier-vought-under-its-wing/

EVERETT — In a move to straighten out its 787 jet program supply chain, the Boeing Co. will buy a problematic supplier’s shares of a Dreamliner assembly facility in South Carolina.

 

When actually getting things built, as opposed to providing jobs in every single Congressional district, become the priority these little guys get bought out. Despite eighteen months of warning the Pentagon and the prime contractors don't seem to be there yet. We might want to decide if we actually still want to be a superpower or not.