Haiduk Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 (edited) 7 hours ago, Anon052 said: There are talks that russia now uses a satellite guided missile-system similar to HIMARS with range up to 120 kms. Did anyone hear something? The surge in russian precision strikes on trains and similar targets way behind ukrainian lines points in that direction. If true it would be very bad news. They have been using it since 2014. Tornado-S, armed with 9M542 rockets with GLONASS system. Ukraine developed similar modification of Smerch - GPS (?) missile "Vil'kha". Both have worse accuracy than HIMARS in satellite guiding mode. Video of Tornado-S usage are known from recent times. Edited October 6, 2023 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 (edited) On 10/5/2023 at 9:28 PM, Battlefront.com said: After reading this I'm pretty well convinced that there was no "treason" that caused the Ukrainian defenses in the south to be so ineffective. Instead, it was a combination of rather bland reasons that combined to make things fall apart so quickly. I recommend reading this, but for those who want to skip the details here's the meat of it: In recent interview of former Chief-in-Command Viktor Muzhenko, he told in 2018 was passed a classified document of defense strategy in case of big war with Russia, but Crimea direction didn't recognized as a particularly threatened direction. According to this documnet, main threat was assumed from Donbas direction. And this document was actual on 2022 and obviously General Staff took it for base for defense planning with some changes. Before this big interview with major-general Sokolov (about several months) I've read short thread in twitetr form one of officers of "South" operative command, where he sharply criticized Sokolov and his HQ, because they on all briefings, when officers clarified their tasks for a case of invasion, told tham that all these talks about war is a Russian is blackmailing and nothing will happen. Also he hinted, that Operative Command engineer-sapper service was completely incompetent and "I will not wonder if chiefe of this service will be shot out in future". After this interview some soldiers of 59th mot.inf.brigade told that Sokolov in this intervew tries to avoid own responsibility. Really Sokolov hadn't even these 1500 men of 59th brigade on the border - all 230 km guarded slighly more that 300 marines of 137th marine battalion, part of them were young conscripts. And all fortifications on the border were several platoon strongpoints, so against Russians in first moments of invasion stood several separate platoons on strongpoints and some number of border guards. Edited October 6, 2023 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 53 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said: Interesting that 5th assault brigade has CV90. And looks like this is video of summer, when this brigade fought near Ivanivskem where there are many forests. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 Now that the summer offensive has failed, what are the chances the winter offensive will bring any substantial results? Anything about to fundamentally change apart from keeping on keeping on killing Russians? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 7 hours ago, billbindc said: I assume you've read Watling's new book? Amazing. He'll be at Wilson Center on Wednesday for any DC area grogs: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/arms-future-book-launch-dr-jack-watling I just read the first bit, it seems excellent, and not just because he agrees with me that helicopters are obsolete. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 (edited) On 10/5/2023 at 5:24 PM, Harmon Rabb said: More unfortunately unsurprising barbarism. Final death count - 51. This is Denys Kozyr and his wife - former serviceman of AFU, who participated in this war, but recently retired by health problems. His father went to front with him and was killed. The son, returning to home decided to move the grave of father from Dnipo city cemetry to his native village. As this costumary in out villages, many people came to memorial dinner in this cafe and around. Obviously some local taritor sent information to Russia that "funerals of "Aydar" nazi will take place and many nationalists will be expected". This is not in first time. About half year ago Russians launched Iskander at funeral procession of "Azov" fighter in Dnipropetrovksk oblast, but then Russians missed and only several people were wounded. In this time missile hit precisely. Almost all Kozyr's families (his and wife) were killed in this strike as well as almost half of current village population. Russian media and TGs initailly celebrating "perfect shot, sending many Aydar nazi to Bandera", but when cadres of dead civilans appeared, Russians as always rebooted in air and became to clame this is Ukrainians launch this missile to have arguments to get more weapon. After this and today Kharkiv strike, it's ridiculous to hear from Scholz about "escalation if we give Taurus to Ukraine" and "Taurus is very complicated for target programming" (I remember this "Western weapon is too complicated to Ukrainians, it's nees years to learn it" in first months of war) Edited October 6, 2023 by Haiduk 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vacillator Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 25 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Final death count - 51. So sad to hear it. And meanwhile a single drone hitting a building in Russia is described by them as a terror attack. Jeez! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 (edited) Meanwhile, on eve of Khuilo's birthday, Russians launched offensive (or next attempt of it) on Lyman and Kupiansk directions. Several days ago Lyman groupment was activated - it struk to Makiivka village direction (at the top of map). All what Russians could achieve - they advanced on about 200 m in grey zone. Today these photos were issued of at least two destroyed armored groups, described as "from Luhansk oblast" - more likely theн were taken from this attack on Makiivka Kupiansk groupment likely launched own attack last night. Before Russians destroyed all crossings and bridge through Oskol river in Kupiansk area, so now they rushed in decisisve advance again. From the morning Russian TGs reportd about heavy airstrikes on UKR positions and artilelry shelling of their logistic routes. Later some UKR soures became to rufute these claims - tehy confirmed Russians used cluster rockets and artilellery, but no described "armaggedon" Interesting yesterday Russian TG even posted this In Syn'kivka area we were thrown back. Out guys do all possible to return positions. Syn'kivka is key village, from where the shortest way to Petropavlivka and Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi (Kupiansk suburb on left bank of Oskol) Several hours ago UKR TG posted this: From the night on Kupiansk direction there are haevy clashes, pidors swarmed like a sh...t through the pipes. 4 tanks, 3 BMPs and 2 BTRs Russians have lost in night breakthrough attempt. Edited October 6, 2023 by Haiduk 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 Because of the lack of BMDs (and low tempo of newest BMD-4M producing) some units of 76th air-assault division got BMP-2M IFVs as far as in winter 2023. One on these vehiles was hit by FPV drone of 82nd air-assault brigade near Verbove UKR FFV has flown into open backdoor, causing huge detonation 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 15 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Because of the lack of BMDs (and low tempo of newest BMD-4M producing) some units of 76th air-assault division got BMP-2M IFVs as far as in winter 2023. One on these vehiles was hit by FPV drone of 82nd air-assault brigade near Verbove UKR FFV has flown into open backdoor, causing huge detonation "Russians report one BMP-2M lightly damaged in fierce fighting" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quakerparrot67 Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 10 hours ago, Teufel said: It’s no longer SMO but “so called war”. no- it's still "s.m.o." by "so called war" he is saying that other people (the west) are calling it a war when it is not, at least that is how "so called" is generally used in english. cheers, rob 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twisk Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said: Now that the summer offensive has failed, what are the chances the winter offensive will bring any substantial results? I've not been following the news much lately but I think it depends on Ukrainian reserve depth. What sticks out to me is that the 47th Mech. Brigade has apparently been engaged since early June. Fighting first through the initial lines and most recently liberating Robotyne. Maybe I am not thinking about it correctly but it seems astonishing that 5 battalions (3 mechanized, 1 tank, 1 assault) has been able to sustain itself throughout nearly 4 months of fighting. - Are there rotations I am not seeing? - Are Ukrainian replacement systems able to fill up the unit while in combat this effectively? - Are Ukrainian losses in fact relatively small so that a single brigade could be engaged for 4 months? - Is this an advantage of Western equipment (vehicle losses are heavy but manpower losses are lighter)? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Twisk said: - Is this an advantage of Western equipment (vehicle losses are heavy but manpower losses are lighter)? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukraine-the-latest/id1612424182?i=1000630462480 Ukraine the Latest had a conversation about that today in fact. Reporter quoted multiple Ukrainian soldiers from the 47th that said they are alive because of the Bradleys armor, and and other damage control systems. He also said they were very tired, and he thought they were about to rotate out. Edited October 6, 2023 by dan/california 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 latest summary from this guy here. Mostly about tree line war, which we all hate. Sharing it here because he posits that losing leaves helps UKR, as the attacker and w more precision, more than hurts. I've been wondering how losing leaf cover will affect each side. I've also wondering about night actions. With long nights, will URK use it's superior soldier night imaging & communication (w thermal image drones) to conduct more night ops against RU defensive positions? Night operations are inherently dangerous and require good training. Maybe this is part of UKR winter plans, I don't know. Since we're mostly smaller scale infantry operations anyway, maybe it will be something UKR starts attempting. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/6/2197824/-Ukraine-Update-It-s-a-war-of-the-tree-lines?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 https://mil.in.ua/en/news/rheinmetall-books-major-order-for-155mm-artillery-ammunition-to-ukraine/ Rheinmetall has seen the massive business opportunity and has been diving in hard. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-provide-ukraine-with-an-additional-patriot-air-defence-system-scholz-2023-10-05/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 Philip P O'Brien is joining CSIS. Good on him. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAZ NZ Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 With all the destruction of Russian armour what is being used to take them out? Javelins? Or Drones? Have any reports come in of Bradley's using tows on Russian armour? Cheers 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 21 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said: With all the destruction of Russian armour what is being used to take them out? Javelins? Or Drones? Have any reports come in of Bradley's using tows on Russian armour? Cheers In the first phase or two of the war, Kyiv and then the first Russian push in the Donbas, Javelins and other missiles were a major component of of the casualties. Dumb artillery rounds probably accounted for most of the rest. Since the lines stabilized, and both side got mines out to restrict lanes of attack, various special artillery rounds, the mines themselves, and drones have done much more of the damage. By special rounds I mean artillery delivered mines, the nifty german round with with the top attack sub munition and Excalibur. there are probably more. Ideally you don't use an unless some leakers make it through everything I just listed, because it reveals your position. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 (edited) https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/deep-state-radio/id1245002955?i=1000630463434 An excellent interview with the head if the IAEA, which i am strongly of the opinion is the ONLY truly international agency that has done its job in Ukraine. If the IAEA Director Rafael Grossi is not the next Secretary General the UN should just close. Plenty of discussion of both Ukraine and Iran. Edited October 7, 2023 by dan/california 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 He likes it a lot better than a BMP. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 Somber post about the daunting task still facing Ukrainian forces: 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 (edited) Many Russian milbloggers are talking about Hamas attack on Israel, including the launching of rocket barrages on cities. I wonder if they see paralells in Russia's own attacks on Ukraine? Edited October 7, 2023 by cesmonkey 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 (edited) Maybe they see parallels between their invasion and this: Sorry, couldn't resist. To update after seeing more: the parallels are lot more ****ing digsuting than this. Edited October 7, 2023 by Hapless 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 Seriously what's going on in Israel, this doesn't look good. Looks like a prelude that could end in wider events in the region. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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