How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

25 minutes ago, Hapless said:

 

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Man, people read Neuromancer once and miss the point. Screaming Fist wasn't a success, Hamas. It gave Wintermute its in with Armitage/Corto....

Edited October 7, 2023 by Kinophile

[Seedorf81]

"Putin makes nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile test claim".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67021695

 

Let's hope it is an Armata kinda claim..

[Letter from Prague]

... nevermind

Edited October 7, 2023 by Letter from Prague

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

He likes it a lot better than a BMP.

Why is he wearing an airsoft face protection mask? 

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, Twisk said:

Maybe I am not thinking about it correctly but it seems astonishing that 5 battalions (3 mechanized, 1 tank, 1 assault) has been able to sustain itself throughout nearly 4 months of fighting.

- Are there rotations I am not seeing?
- Are Ukrainian replacement systems able to fill up the unit while in combat this effectively?
- Are Ukrainian losses in fact relatively small so that a single brigade could be engaged for 4 months?

- Is this an advantage of Western equipment (vehicle losses are heavy but manpower losses are lighter)?

Specific of this offensive - no large scale formations. Between Robotyne - Verbove not only 47th brigade is operating, but also 65th, 116th, 118th mech, 82nd air-assault, 78th special purpose air-assault regiment "Herts' ", 71st jager air-assault brigade, 14th National Guard operative brigade "Chervona Kalyna" and other units. All they didn't involved 24/7 in full composition. These brigades sending platoon and company groups, which by small parties proceed to own objectives - to defend something or attack. After some time in action this company group withdraw to rear for rest and other one substitute them. Or units of other brigade come to their area, giving them opportunity to rest or seize positions on more calm part of breakthrough area. This is answer, why since 4 month of offensive all these brigades still capable to fight, despite really big losses. 

Russians do in similar way, but their opportunities to make fas rotations are more limited. Throwing in the battle two full VDV divisions just temporary postponed crisis of reserves and personnel fatigue.

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, GAZ NZ said:

Or Drones? 

FPV drones became a real scourge for vehicles and infantry of both sides. Both sides write that any movements in close tactical rear became a dangerous, because you can be attacked with high probability. 

TOWs of Bradleys of course used, I posted here several videos of day and night launches. 

[Haiduk]

Concerning to Israel... 

Here is year-ago photo, where Lavrov met with Hamas leaders in Moscow.

And attack of Hamas in Putin's birthday - I think this is not coincidence. Some in Ukraine already say this is planned operation of Russia with support of Iran's proxies to force USA to direct funds to protection of Israel, instead Ukraine. And some conspirolgists say Israel also interested in this - as if because of this that well-known Israeli intelligence "overslept" Hamas preparations and army wasn't prepared. 

What I can say. Israel long time didn't wan't to quarrel with Russia even watching their cooperation with enemy #1 - Iran. They were giving drone technologies to Russia (thanks for Hero/Lancet, Searcher II/Forpost) and long time was rejecting to give drones for Ukraine. Israel didn't join to sanctions against Russia. Yes, Israel sent to Ukraine some non-lethal aid, they treat some our wounded soldiers, but their position concerning Russia wasn't so firm as in EU. 

And here next example that two-сhairs sitting policy can turn out you will get own Bucha in one moment, because Iran, being funded by Russia for Shakeds, ammo, spareparts for passenger aviation etc, will rise own head and send own proxies to fight with Israel. And here next example to western politics, who scare "escalation" and "WW3" - more than you will be scared and develop own indecisiveness, more Evil Axis will impudent to challenge world order and sooner or later you will get if not own WW3, but the chain of regional conflicts, which can disrupt this global order and then time of dictatorship regimes triumph will come. Only because they didn't scare to use force, but western democracies thoug they can sit out in own zone of comfort. 

Now Hamas occupied seven communities in Israel, one military base was taken.

 

Israel citizens flee from Palestinians

Sderot now can be Israeli Bucha

... As well as roads turned out to analog of our Zhytomyr highway, where Russians shot out cars with civilians

 

Edited October 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Merkava hit by drone

Palestinians mock over dead Israeli tanker

 

Edited October 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[Markus86]

What Haiduk posted seems to be only the tip of the iceberg. Social media is full of really really terrible pictures and videos. I can't even imagine how Israel will react and how far this will spread in the region. 

[Beleg85]

25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

What I can say. Israel long time didn't wan't to quarrel with Russia even watching their cooperation with enemy #1 - Iran. They were giving drone technologies to Russia (thanks for Hero/Lancet, Searcher II/Forpost) and long time was rejecting to give drones for Ukraine. Israel didn't join to sanctions against Russia. Yes, Israel sent to Ukraine some non-lethal aid, they treat some our wounded soldiers, but their position concerning Russia wasn't so firm as in EU. 

Worth to add valid rumours of some non-insignificant intelligence help and unspecified "favours" when comes to global weapon trade, ofc. mediated by USA. I am pretty sure not all Israeli help to UA is known now.

Overall, from military point of view we have interesting example of paramilitaries using quite aray of innovative tactics. Under barrage of kassams, groups of guerrillas on motorbikes, para-gliders (bloody science fiction...) and using tunnels entered border towns in clear aim at sowing terror. We see Merkava's bruning (at least two) plus several likely temporarly captured, probbaly ATGM's in use and copters throwing granades that disable tanks. Worth of note is this hamas campaign of PR warfare- inernet is out of a sudden flood with clips of their fighters preparing themselves, probably partly staged.

Hamas is not regular military and this is very different conflct than Ukrainian, but trends in warfare are clearly visible.

Ofc. Hamas will not hold there (Sderot alone has 20k inhabitants), but it is enough to provoke powerful response from Israel- if last reports are true, the number of hostages taken may be substantial...difficult situation for Israel, they didn't face mass hostage situation except on their soil for a long time.

9 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

What Haiduk posted seems to be only the tip of the iceberg. Social media is full of really really terrible pictures and videos. I can't even imagine how Israel will react and how far this will spread in the region. 

Given who is their Minister of Internal affairs (and PM looking for score at any cost) it will be a mess for sure. Almost hard to believe they missed preparations for Hamas operation of such scale.

Edited October 7, 2023 by Beleg85

[kluge]

10 hours ago, danfrodo said:

latest summary from this guy here.  Mostly about tree line war, which we all hate.  Sharing it here because he posits that losing leaves helps UKR, as the attacker and w more precision, more than hurts.  I've been wondering how losing leaf cover will affect each side. 

I've also wondering about night actions.  With long nights, will URK use it's superior soldier night imaging & communication (w thermal image drones) to conduct more night ops against RU defensive positions?  Night operations are inherently dangerous and require good training.  Maybe this is part of UKR winter plans, I don't know.  Since we're mostly smaller scale infantry operations anyway, maybe it will be something UKR starts attempting.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/6/2197824/-Ukraine-Update-It-s-a-war-of-the-tree-lines?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web

Kos's first conclusion from that video is "Ukraine still can't do combined arms"? Since when did he attend staff college?

Regarding leaf cover, there won't be much of a change because most of the treelines at the frontline are already deforested. The leaf cover is gone and the trees are effectively dead. Rear areas are a different story as there's still coverage there. Artillery and ammo dumps will be much more exposed. Who that favors is anyone's guess as the counterbattery duel is largely invisible to the public.

1-2 extra hours of darkness is at most a minor tactical advantage. I doubt there will be a significant increase in nighttime tempo over what is already happening now.

UKRs plan is pretty clear- they have the initiative and want to retain it through the winter.

[Haiduk]

"Alfa" SBU special force targeted TOS-1A and it was hit by HIMARS with nice firework. Zaporizhzhia oblast.

 

Edited October 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

What Haiduk posted seems to be only the tip of the iceberg. Social media is full of really really terrible pictures and videos. I can't even imagine how Israel will react and how far this will spread in the region. 

Yes, already alot of such footage, which consequences can be compared with Russian breakthrough in Crimea..

@Battlefront.com Maybe better to create new thread for Israel? Albeit it obviously fits in Russian-Ukrainian war as a part of global confrontation between conditional "democracies" and conditional "authocraties"

[Letter from Prague]

I wonder which way the politics will swing. Will this destroy Netanyahu or will this make him ruler for life?

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Concerning to Israel... 

Here is year-ago photo, where Lavrov met with Hamas leaders in Moscow.

And attack of Hamas in Putin's birthday - I think this is not coincidence. Some in Ukraine already say this is planned operation of Russia with support of Iran's proxies to force USA to direct funds to protection of Israel, instead Ukraine. And some conspirolgists say Israel also interested in this - as if because of this that well-known Israeli intelligence "overslept" Hamas preparations and army wasn't prepared. 

What I can say. Israel long time didn't wan't to quarrel with Russia even watching their cooperation with enemy #1 - Iran. They were giving drone technologies to Russia (thanks for Hero/Lancet, Searcher II/Forpost) and long time was rejecting to give drones for Ukraine. Israel didn't join to sanctions against Russia. Yes, Israel sent to Ukraine some non-lethal aid, they treat some our wounded soldiers, but their position concerning Russia wasn't so firm as in EU. 

And here next example that two-сhairs sitting policy can turn out you will get own Bucha in one moment, because Iran, being funded by Russia for Shakeds, ammo, spareparts for passenger aviation etc, will rise own head and send own proxies to fight with Israel. And here next example to western politics, who scare "escalation" and "WW3" - more than you will be scared and develop own indecisiveness, more Evil Axis will impudent to challenge world order and sooner or later you will get if not own WW3, but the chain of regional conflicts, which can disrupt this global order and then time of dictatorship regimes triumph will come. Only because they didn't scare to use force, but western democracies thoug they can sit out in own zone of comfort. 

Now Hamas occupied seven communities in Israel, one military base was taken.

 

Israel citizens flee from Palestinians

Sderot now can be Israeli Bucha

... As well as roads turned out to analog of our Zhytomyr highway, where Russians shot out cars with civilians

 

Dude, stick to Ukraine.  You are making enormously unfounded leaps of logic here.  No one can reasonably describe Israeli foreign policy with respect to Iran (where they launched numerous HVT strikes over the years) or Gaza/Hamas (where they have conducted regular airstrikes and military action/war back to 2006: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza–Israel_conflict) as “two chair sitting”.  Drawing a leap between Israeli perceived restraint with respect to the war in your country and what just happened in and around Gaza is drifting into conspiracy theory and disinformation.  As I read it you are basically on the road to blaming every misery and long standing conflict in the west sphere on our escalation restraint. This is 1) wrong and 2) disingenuous.

[Haiduk]

Just for history, RUS LostArmor talks

In short, village Hroza, being struck with Iskander, causing death of 51 people is very close to Shevchenkove town. In September 2022, during Balakliya-Izium oparation there was deployed 1st battalion of 137th airborne regiment of 106th airborne division. They got an order to hold town and to be a "barrier detachment" - to stop all troops, fleeing through this town, subordinate them and organize defense. But when UKR forces approached to the town, rallied Russians again abandoned positions and fled in panic, only this VDV battalion remained in defense. Really it was not even batatlion, but combined group of remains of 1st battalion and regimental recon company, total about 90 men. Ukrainians didn't assault their positions, just shelled during the day them with artillery, causing 50 % of losses, after this Russians withdrew. Battalion commander, experienced officer, who previously served in Spetsnaz was killed too. So, Wayne Howell, hopes, the strike on Hroza is a "fair revenge" for this.

[Offshoot]

So you can use artillery to destroy minefields...it just depends on the density.

 

[holoween]

19 minutes ago, kluge said:

Kos's first conclusion from that video is "Ukraine still can't do combined arms"? Since when did he attend staff college?

No need to attend a staff college to see what theyre doing.

Tank, IFV and APC move in

Tank shoots up the general area of the enemy while the IFV and APC dismount their troops

And then they just leave the infantry alone.

So we have sequential rather than combined applications of the different arms. Its also lacking indirect fire entirely.

 

Though it varies quite a bit. Compare this posted a few pages ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fifpgIJkxXA

Smoke to isolate the attacked position, supression fire from the BMP while the tank moves in to shoot up a known position and in the end the BMP doesnt leave the infantry alone.

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

No one can reasonably describe Israeli foreign policy with respect to Iran

I said about their policy to Russia. 

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

As I read it you are basically on the road to blaming every misery and long standing conflict in the west sphere on our escalation restraint.

Yes. Because it's sadly to see, how many politics of countries, who establised powerful military allince to withstand USSR (which was most stronger and more adequate than modern Russia) and protect "democracy values" now tack tails between legs, when they have seen a perspective of not "easy walk" like in Yugoslavia or Iraq, but clashing with much stronger evil forces, who claim to push West out from world top.  

If West supplied us with weapon for the same "democracy values protection" with the same zeal and preserverance, as it forced us to disarm themselves in 90th-2000th, we could expell Russians more quickly with less number of victims.

Richard Lugar, senator, author of idea of UKR disarming and Barak Obama in Donetsk, watching over process of artillery shells utilizing. 

 

Last UKR Tu-22M3 utilization in Poltava, 2006. Total in 2002-2006 43 Tu-22M3 and 17 Tu-22M2 were utilized as well as 400 Kh-22 cruise missiles.

Edited October 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kraft]

35 minutes ago, holoween said:

No need to attend a staff college to see what theyre doing.

Tank, IFV and APC move in

Tank shoots up the general area of the enemy while the IFV and APC dismount their troops

And then they just leave the infantry alone.

So we have sequential rather than combined applications of the different arms. Its also lacking indirect fire entirely.

 

Though it varies quite a bit. Compare this posted a few pages ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fifpgIJkxXA

Smoke to isolate the attacked position, supression fire from the BMP while the tank moves in to shoot up a known position and in the end the BMP doesnt leave the infantry alone.

 

All this only works if the enemy is not reacting, its like a manual, easy to write and print. Reality is different often enough.

The moment a unit with resources spots these vehicles ATGM crews will move out, FPV drones will cause mobility kills and artillery will do the rest.

The vehicles wont do much supporting after that and will just be lost with little additional gain.

Especially since the main fighting happens in areas direct fire vehicles have little effect, as the Russian Mobik is a creature of the earth, living deep below the surface

Without good Intel that the enemy lacks certain assets or forcing conditions in which these are occupied/disabled beforehand, staying in the field is suicide.

Against AI in CM it'll work, against a competent opponent you will lose what you expose!

 

Edited October 7, 2023 by Kraft

[cesmonkey]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

And attack of Hamas in Putin's birthday - I think this is not coincidence.

While I don't doubt that Russia via it's relationship with Iran has friendly ties with Hamas, more likely, it's 50 years plus a day since the start of the 1973 October (Yom Kippur) War.

Edited October 7, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Haiduk]

32 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

While I don't doubt that Russia via it's relationship with Iran has friendly ties with Hamas, more likely, it's 50 years plus a day since the start of the 1973 October (Yom Kippur) War.

And this too, of course.

Russia officially made a statements they don't recognize Hamas and Hesbolla as terrorist organisations. And formal receptions of these organization leaders on the level of Foreign Affairs minister speak clear about Russia had own plans how to use them in own interests.

Edited October 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, already alot of such footage, which consequences can be compared with Russian breakthrough in Crimea..

@Battlefront.com Maybe better to create new thread for Israel? Albeit it obviously fits in Russian-Ukrainian war as a part of global confrontation between conditional "democracies" and conditional "authocraties"

I agree with the idea of another thread for this. But then, I've thought that about a lot of off-topic discussions that end up getting talked to death on this current thread.

[Haiduk]

Reducing of convicted number in Russia in 2022 (grey line) - 28 0000 and in 2023 (red dotted line) - 54000. There is no numbers for each month in 2023, only total number in 54 000 reducing for 9 months of this year. This doesn't mean all these 82 000 are mobilized. Some just were released, enough part was released after their contract with PMC Wagner (total 49 000 were enlisted to PMC, at least 10000 were lost), other part went to Shtorm Z units of MoD.

Edited October 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I wonder which way the politics will swing. Will this destroy Netanyahu or will this make him ruler for life?

I would hesitate to speculate on Israeli politics, but I can foresee this event being spun both ways by both the American proponents and opponents of more aid to Ukraine.