How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Letter from Prague]

14 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Here we go again, where have I heard all of this before?

The internets are reacting already:

(This one was made by an actual Czech newspaper, by the way, not just some randos.)

Edited October 1, 2023 by Letter from Prague

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Here we go again, where have I heard all of this before?

What did you expect from former communist (1986-1989) and than repainted into "Party of democracy leftists"? (1990-1999). Looks like lustration in Slovakia was insufficient. Moscow always paid attentin for such "perspective" politicians.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

What did you expect from former communist (1986-1989) and than repainted into "Party of democracy leftists"? (1990-1999). Looks like lustration in Slovakia was insufficient. Moscow always paid attentin for such "perspective" politicians.

We all know Slovakia's real problems are the "Anglo-Protestant" occupiers. Unfortunately my friend, I did not expect anything less from this guy.

[Letter from Prague]

I think you mean the Anglo-Saxons?

Anyway, this guy's problem is more that he's an organized crime figure who had journalists investigating his corruption murdered and controlled Slovakia with a corrupted police leadership, than his communist past.

[Harmon Rabb]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I think you mean the Anglo-Saxons?

For some reason they would use "Anglo-Protestants" on Russian propaganda shows. I did not get why they used it either.

 

Putin hints at holy war in Ukraine with 'Anglo-Protestant' backing

Quote

Instead, he added in a post on Twitter, when “referring to the dastardly US and UK”, programme hosts have used the term “Anglo-Protestants.

Best example I could fined quickly of the term being used. I used to hear it all the time when listening to Russian propagandists in 2022 using Francis Scarr's clips to understand the rhetoric they are using. But frankly I cannot stomach listening to that garbage anymore, so I am not sure if the term is still used on a daily basis in 2023.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

13 hours ago, Butschi said:

I think you are giving Russia way too much credit here. Sure, Russia wants us to believe they have a hand in everything. But in reality people are quite capable of doing stupid things or things that are in Russia's interest without being paid by Putin or swayed by propaganda. And then, of course, people just do things that are in their own self-interest that just happen to align with Russia's interest. IMHO, ascribing everything to Russian manipulation makes them bigger than they are (which is also in Russia's interest) and prevents analysing the what the real motives are.

it is true that people often overestimate Russia's ability to influence/control politics in the West.  The best way to describe their abilities is "amplification".  They can make what should be small problems and turn them into something distracting or draining for the rest of the political system.  Death by a thousand paper cuts.  Occasionally this is enough to tip the balance in favor of their preferred choice.  Sometimes it takes only "moving the needle" by a very small amount and boom... something big that might not otherwise have happened if Russia hadn't interfered.

The lesson here is to never overestimate Russia's abilities but also never underestimate the impact of Russian influence campaigns may have.

Steve

[The_Capt]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I have been of this view since mid 2022. This labels me as a pessimist on this forum, although I have very badly wanted the Russians to hit their 'Uncle' point first, and quit, as they did in A'Stan, then Eastern Europe and then the USSR itself.

Unfortunately, the Arsenal of Democracy doesn't exist any more. There are probably as many or more cheerful Ukrainian Vikings capable and interested in becoming skilled machinists (or CAD draftsmen) than North Americans today, at a 10x population delta.  (And those in N.A. who do try to go into these fields are overwhelmingly Asian immigrants).

...The frat boys I went to uni with in the '80s who (unlike me, no I was the 'smart guy', too clever for all that) went to the elite banking jobs on Bay Street/Wall Street, and then on to private equity. Pretty much everyone else in our age group who chose a different profession has either struggled to prosper in a world shaped by these sh*theads, or basically become one of them, or served them. Time has done the rest, most of the folks who could recreate and manage the world we lived in as of Desert Storm 1991 are retired or dead.

And they shipped all that Making Lotsa Stuff Better Faster Cheaper capacity and knowhow offshore, piecemeal and then in huge chunks, first to Mexico and then to China, the moment e-commerce made it possible to do so (c. 1998-2003, depending on sector), with the active support of pretty much ALL political parties. Took them about 15 years to bleed out the industrial base of the US of A (of which Canada is merely region 5 or 6 on most corporate logistical maps).

Short of a mortal danger (i.e. invasion!) to North America, that capacity ain't ever coming back, no sense dreaming about it. Why would the finance bros give a rats, still less tolerate all the dot.Gov meddling, if they can't model 15% EIRR, with exit margin compression door-to-door returns of 24% within 2 years of FID? Lame!

So we must pray that our Ukrainian brothers can maintain their qualitative edge long enough to break that "Russian Will", before waves of cheap-and-cheerful-made-in-China clones of last-year's tech takes 2024 to a Passchendaele level of bloody for both sides.

I would love someone to convince me I'm wrong about any of the above, cuz I haven't found anyone, here or elsewhere.

So I'm left praying for Russian weakness, or some hidden reserve of common sense, reasserting itself and ending this thing.

Meh.  Beyond social commentary, which does have some truth but also those fratboys appear to have built the most powerful economy in human history (now how long it survives is a very good question), this war is all about expectations.

If your expectation is for Russia to fold out a la Afghanistan, well that war took 10 years of bleeding.  For us it took nearly 20.  If your expectation is that Ukraine preserve its political freedom and independence, well that bridge was crossed a long time ago.  Given the events I cannot express how unlikely the reality we live in now is - Russia on operational defensive while we wrong hands at pace of Ukrainian offensive.  Given what we knew on 21 Feb, no one honestly thought Ukraine stood a chance of survival, let alone being critiqued for advancing too slowly.

Ukraine is not going to tap out and roll under Russia at this point.  Russia’s last major advance was Prigy driving on Moscow while Putin ran away in Jun.  Many are sweating Russian ability to freeze this war…well Ukraine definitely can and as such will survive.  As long as we support them, even just simple money.  

If we fail in support or walk away, then it is not Ukraine that loses this war, we do.  So glass half full…?

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

Simply put, control of just over 1/2 of 1/3rd of the US government isn't really enough to stop what the rest of it wants. There  will be some delays in votes and some bumps along the way buy what has happened in the House is ultimately a good thing for Ukraine. The Putin wing of the House GOP caucus just tried to shut down the government, overstepped politically and failed. This coming week, there will be a motion to vacate the Speaker's chair and Democrats very likely step in to save McCarthy as there aren't really the vote in the GOP caucus for anyone else would take the job if they won it.

The price of that action will be aid to Ukraine. Finis.

And we’ll go through the whole dance again next month. Each time dancing on the edge of the world. So far the balancing act has stayed steady. This time in violation of the absurd but relentless rule in the Republican Caucus in the House, “The (Dennis) Hastert Rule”. Votes by Democrats needed to pass that last minute bill. Odds favor another close call with some sort of last minute patch to prevent a blowout. But at the very least, governance continues to bog down. Does this worsen the faith in the nation’s ability to govern itself? In democracy? Will Russia and China take every opportunity to drive more wedges into that faith as the 2024 elections grow closer? Are the chances for a Republican Senate majority quite strong? Even if Democrats retain the White House? High probabilities, all. Ukraine has about a year to win its best possible outcome. After that, the future is wide open.

I’ve always been an optimistic realist. Or realistic optimist. But I swear, the sheer magnitude of the crap people keep pulling is trying my bedrock optimism.

[Jiggathebauce]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

And how to be with Finns, Romanians, Italians who initially fought for Axis, but then crossed on Allied side? They never did warcrimes?    

The same answer from me they should have all been tried and punished accordingly. 

 

Also, the much quoted ridiculous "Hard times make strong men" thing is a meaningless mystical fantasy. If hard times made strong men made good times, Russia would have been a much better place at some point in the last 600 years. Seems to me they've had nothing but hard times and horrible men, and maybe  a lot of dead good men who didn't get to make a difference as a result.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Jiggathebauce
Nuance

[billbindc]

56 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

And we’ll go through the whole dance again next month. Each time dancing on the edge of the world. So far the balancing act has stayed steady. This time in violation of the absurd but relentless rule in the Republican Caucus in the House, “The (Dennis) Hastert Rule”. Votes by Democrats needed to pass that last minute bill. Odds favor another close call with some sort of last minute patch to prevent a blowout. But at the very least, governance continues to bog down. Does this worsen the faith in the nation’s ability to govern itself? In democracy? Will Russia and China take every opportunity to drive more wedges into that faith as the 2024 elections grow closer? Are the chances for a Republican Senate majority quite strong? Even if Democrats retain the White House? High probabilities, all. Ukraine has about a year to win its best possible outcome. After that, the future is wide open.

I’ve always been an optimistic realist. Or realistic optimist. But I swear, the sheer magnitude of the crap people keep pulling is trying my bedrock optimism.

But the dance next month will be defined by the realization among the (too-conservative-for-me but) generally sane majority of Republicans in the House that to retain some semblance of order in the House they have to keep McCarthy and to keep McCarthy they need Democratic votes to stifle their own bomb throwers. There's already talk on the Hill among Republicans to cooperate with Democrats to change the rule so that motions to vacate will be nullified. With a half decent bounce or two, things are about to get a lot less crazy in the House. 

[danfrodo]

Let's not get caught up in words like 'conservative' for what is happening.  These people not anything like what conservative GOP was in the past.  There are radical, insane people who have managed to take the US house hostage.  These loonies are a minority of the country and a minority of the GOP and a minority of the house -- but they are a minority that managed to hold the GOP leadership hostage and now the country hostage on occasion.  The rightwing media did such a good job brainwashing the f-kwits over the last few decades that now the lunatics are running the asylum.  Just look at what these imbeciles believe.  They live in a psychotic, anti-science, anti-reality fantasy land.  

But my point is that those that want to abandon UKR represent a minority of both US parties.  They will not get to continue minority-tyranny for long.  I bet most GOPers, while publicly praising Trump, are secretly wishing he'd die soon so some sanity can return.  Then they can get back to serious work of making rich people richer, which is the actual mission of the GOP.  

These radicals in the house are having a grand old time trying to set fire to the republic, but it's very unlikely they will last.  They will all most likely be in the dustbin of history after the 2024 elections.  Most of them won't survive their primaries.  They are nearly all from safely-GOP districts so their seats will probably remain GOP.  And the non-crazy GOP politicians will be happy to see them (and Trump) gone -- they just can't say that in public.  Because of the MAGA base.  The dumbest f-wits america has ever seen.  

I am confused when I see, today, so many people peeing their pants over UKR aid, as if it's ending.  This is just a speedbump on the road.  The majority is with UKR, both with the public and the politicians.  

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

But the dance next month will be defined by the realization among the (too-conservative-for-me but) generally sane majority of Republicans in the House that to retain some semblance of order in the House they have to keep McCarthy and to keep McCarthy they need Democratic votes to stifle their own bomb throwers. There's already talk on the Hill among Republicans to cooperate with Democrats to change the rule so that motions to vacate will be nullified. With a half decent bounce or two, things are about to get a lot less crazy in the House. 

Sure,  if you're dealing with rational people who can make those calculations. And yeah,  vast majority of republicans seem pretty fed up. But that group of 20 can still burn more things down because they're driven by ideology, not rationality.

The basic dynamic hasn't changed -  a morally weak,  self serving speaker being jostled around by a determined, united group of "rebels", who gain popularity and credibility in their core voters the more they kick the back of McCarthy's chair.

Not saying they'll succeed in the end, but they're not done. 

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

17 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Sure,  if you're dealing with rational people who can make those calculations. And yeah,  vast majority of republicans seem pretty fed up. But that group of 20 can still burn more things down because they're driven by ideology, not rationality.

The basic dynamic hasn't changed -  a morally weak,  self serving speaker being jostled around by a determined, united group of "rebels", who gain popularity and credibility in their core voters the more they kick the back of McCarthy's chair.

Not saying they'll succeed in the end, but they're not done. 

 

I think this is a pretty good summary of what's likely to happen:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/01/McCarthy-Gaetz-speakership-battle-00119355

My one caveat is that I think it overstates Gaetz's influence when/if he loses the first motion to vacate. 

 

[G.I. Joe]

11 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes if you are able to completely disconnect from the reality of what you're actually doing, then killing people in war is great fun.

This post and the preceding one it was in response to by @paxromana got me thinking of one of the best World War II documentaries I have ever seen: the 1993 PBS series A Fighter Pilot's Story, featuring Captain Quentin Aanenson, a P-47 pilot who served in the ETO. I was 13 when I saw that documentary and I think it did more to give me a grown-up understanding of war than anything else.

One thing that really stuck in my mind was Aanenson talking about how difficult it was to deal with the fact that he would sometimes have the power of life or death over an individual enemy soldier. If he saw someone running in the open, he could put in a little aileron or just nudge the rudder and strafe him. He usually did, because that German soldier might kill two or three Americans the next day if he didn't...but he never felt good about it.

Immediately after the war, shooting a pair of gophers that had been digging up his garden was too much for Aanenson after everything he'd seen and been through, and afterwards he put the gun back on his wall and never shot again.

To be sure, every line of work attracts a range of personalities, but I think Aanenson was far more typical than gung-ho movie stereotypes and reminiscences told with bravado to put on a brave face and avoid difficult memories would suggest. He was definitely not having fun up there, and was all too aware of the reality of what he was doing. Aanenson will always have my respect not just for his wartime service, but for pulling zero punches in his documentary.

[dan/california]

 

[kluge]

Today's ISW report starts off by mentioning a set of fortifications just south of Robotyne that reportedly has changed hands multiple times over the previous few weeks.

Here's a thread that maps out the trenches in great detail with high res imagery. One particular bit that caught my notice is the report that the Russians have dug a proper subterranean tunnel to the next town and are using it to send in reinforcements.

 

[Ales Dvorak]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

If we fail in support or walk away, then it is not Ukraine that loses this war, we do.  So glass half full…?

I'm afraid at the end there will be more: "Hey! I ordered a cheeseburger"

[Butschi]

12 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Here we go again, where have I heard all of this before?

Well, this kind of talk works because it is, in fact, largely true.

People have bills to pay, kids to take care of, all sorts of small or large personal tragedies, you name it. The fact that other people elsewhere have a far worse lot doesn't solve any of their problems and doesn't improve their perceived situation. Problems are always on a scale that is relative to one's own experience - for a child that loses its favorite toy this is the worst tragedy imaginable although it sounds trivial to us.

Not meant as an excuse for Fico but that is the space politicians have to navigate and IMHO failure to acknowledge this (that's not the same as act on it) paves the way for the populists of this world.

[chuckdyke]

How politics works. Public Relations and negotiate from strength. Unfortunate Russian politicians are not very cute compared with elephants. 

[Teufel]

12 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I think you mean the Anglo-Saxons?

Anyway, this guy's problem is more that he's an organized crime figure who had journalists investigating his corruption murdered and controlled Slovakia with a corrupted police leadership, than his communist past.

Hold on one second my slavic hombre! I don’t think I misunderstood but for clarity, did you just differentiate between communists and criminals?

Poor Vaclav Havel just turned in his grave! Well aware that wasn’t your point as you reference one individual’s past. But let me repeat - not all criminals are communists, but all communists are criminals. Without exception!

[Teufel]

On topic, appears some good news are coming from Budanov and Co.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Teufel

[Tux]

44 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Well, this kind of talk works because it is, in fact, largely true.

People have bills to pay, kids to take care of, all sorts of small or large personal tragedies, you name it. The fact that other people elsewhere have a far worse lot doesn't solve any of their problems and doesn't improve their perceived situation. Problems are always on a scale that is relative to one's own experience - for a child that loses its favorite toy this is the worst tragedy imaginable although it sounds trivial to us.

Not meant as an excuse for Fico but that is the space politicians have to navigate and IMHO failure to acknowledge this (that's not the same as act on it) paves the way for the populists of this world.

There is clearly truth in what you write but there are also (at least) two major problems if such a position is prioritised:

1. There exist politicians who are uninterested in the truth or what will benefit their countryfolk (heresy, I know) and who won’t think twice about inflating almost totally unfounded fears and insecurities in their voter base.  Sometimes it is little more than these ‘problems’ which are held up as being more important than the nearby generation-defining war being fought.
2. The universe doesn’t care if your populist base is, for example, more worried about immigration than climate change.  The latter will still bite just as hard if you do nothing about it.

[Offshoot]

A Ukrainian tanker who is having serious mechanical problems with his captured T72B3 phones and trolls Uralvagonzavod tech support

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Offshoot

[TheVulture]

On 9/30/2023 at 10:29 PM, TheVulture said:

UK Defence Minister Grant Shapps is discussing plans to send UK troops to set up training bases in Western Ukraine, rather than having Ukrainian troops come to the UK, and discussed with Zelensky how the Royal Navy could "play a role in defending commercial vessels from Russian attacks in the Black Sea"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/30/grant-shapps-to-send-uk-troops-to-ukraine/

 

I see that Shapps has now backed out of both of these ideas on the quiet. 

It's Conservative Party annual conference time in the UK, so this is now looking a lot like "announce loudly, gather the plaudits, slink off quietly" to try and boost his standing within his party.

[Teufel]

9 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

This post and the preceding one it was in response to by @paxromana got me thinking of one of the best World War II documentaries I have ever seen: the 1993 PBS series A Fighter Pilot's Story, featuring Captain Quentin Aanenson, a P-47 pilot who served in the ETO. I was 13 when I saw that documentary and I think it did more to give me a grown-up understanding of war than anything else.

One thing that really stuck in my mind was Aanenson talking about how difficult it was to deal with the fact that he would sometimes have the power of life or death over an individual enemy soldier. If he saw someone running in the open, he could put in a little aileron or just nudge the rudder and strafe him. He usually did, because that German soldier might kill two or three Americans the next day if he didn't...but he never felt good about it.

Immediately after the war, shooting a pair of gophers that had been digging up his garden was too much for Aanenson after everything he'd seen and been through, and afterwards he put the gun back on his wall and never shot again.

To be sure, every line of work attracts a range of personalities, but I think Aanenson was far more typical than gung-ho movie stereotypes and reminiscences told with bravado to put on a brave face and avoid difficult memories would suggest. He was definitely not having fun up there, and was all too aware of the reality of what he was doing. Aanenson will always have my respect not just for his wartime service, but for pulling zero punches in his documentary.

Thank you for sharing! It’s actually a beautiful perspective of something that is anything but beautiful.

We been through this few times and please those of you seen it please share. Today’s understatement, war is nothing like in the movies in any perspective. Macho bravado Rambo’s are usually not around and if they happen to show they are the one’s to go first. Followed by those lacking any type of fear. Those that survive are those that maintain and control their fear, and the lucky ones.

That is no understatement nor joke, war is suffering bodily and mentally. Not just from pain but as per your reference - from lack of options. It’s seldom something you chose and those who did seek adventure usually found one last. War for the most part is about keeping your sanity, from sensory overlord and constant stress. Feelings of guilt, fear, rage and all other primal emotions under constant pressure and stress.

The thing that is the hardest thing of all is talking and keeping oneself from internalizing. One has to talk and keep others talking, the desire to be alone is very strong indicator that it’s going the wrong path. It’s normal to desire silence if one’s environment is that of chaos but it’s as dangerous if not worse than the chaos. Silence allows brooding, internalizing and building up stuff. One comrade always said he needs to “decompress” or “clean the chamber” to make space to contain more pressure.

In the end, like it or not, luck or chance is by far the biggest factor. There is one situation that portrays this better than anything. Group of guys had just arrived to join the action few days prior, socializing and standing around smoking in group of five. Enemy sniper opens fire and kills two of the five guys, one of them just joined and not fired single round. Not being singled out in that group of targets is chance and circumstance, devine intervention maybe for those that have faith. Coping with such randomness is the type of thing that makes talking difficult. It’s also the type of thing that turns your hair gray. Soldiers in action are thus probably the best subjects to study aging and the correlation between fear and illness.

We could go on all day about this but point is that fighting and surviving depends strongly on training, looking out for one and the other, and luck. Yes, luck! That is the brotherhood of war, it’s not about heroism or sacrifice.

Not sure if this at all adds or offers anything of value to the rest of you but I hope it does. Nothing to do with bravado, it helps to talk, it lends perspectives and helps to separate from civilian life. Be interesting to hear if there are other perspectives on this from those here that seen action, Vietnam or later, if any.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Teufel