How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Russia significantly increased import and own production of Shakheds. Almost a week we can see stable level of attacks with 30-40 drones. This night central regions were under attack and of course Odesa oblast. Only 16 of 30 drones were destroyed. Air Forces command says in this time Russians targeted not only infrastructure objects, but some drones attacked AD objects. In Uman', Cherkasy oblast, drones hit grain storage. A fire embraced about 1000 sq.m

  

Recent attack hit ammo dumps in Kalynivka, Vinnytsia oblast. No visual footage, but FIRMS showed four fire points on the territory of ammo dump and military unit nearby within 29-30th of September.

[Haiduk]

Alcohilic Medvedev threaten Germany that in case of Taurus will be handed over to Ukraine, German factories, producing these missiles "will be "legitimate target according to international law". Also Medvedev warns UK that their instructors, which they are going to send to Ukraine will be object of attacks. Recently Medvedev warns UK and France with the same concerning Storm Shadow/SCALP and added "these stupid bastards are pushing us to WWIII". Damned bluff, but it with big probability will work on westrn politician, who in own fear (if they not hidden influencers of Russia) of "escalation" in each next step of UKR support will interfere to military aid. Next reason to Sсholtz do not send Taurus to Ukraine. 

  

Edited October 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Carolus]

Russia is ramping up, the West is slowing down (or never even really started, like when it comes to economic sanctions).

I feared this would end up this way.

I don't think it will result on any offensive successes for Russia, but the suffering of Ukraine will simply draw out longer and longer.

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Carolus said:

the West is slowing down

Strong people make good times. Good times born weak people. Weak people make hard times. Hard times born strong people. 

[Haiduk]

UKR drone has struck aviation factory in Smolensk. This is minor factory, producing light aircraft (like a Cessna) and different spare parts for civil and military aviation as well as probably for missiles, because the factory is a part of "Tactical Missile Corporation"

 

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Crimean "authorities" claimed AD shot down UKR "Hrim-2" ballistic missile (laugh) over Dzhankoi. Through some time the number of shot down missiles increased to two (since some time likely it will turned out there were 5 or 10 %) )

Locals write they heared loud explosion and now see a smoke plume in area of grain elevator in Michurinovka village, suburb of Dzhankoi.

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR Mugeen-5 over Sochi, Krasnodar region

...And its impact. GUR claimed the drone hit helicopter parking in Adler airport.

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Desertor]

7 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

 

Sidenote: The word “mensa” in Spanish means stupid, which is a source of continuing amusement to Spanish speakers who are aware of the middling-high IQ society.

Are you sure? Because I’m Spanish but I don’t know this word 

[Haiduk]

Russians have drown Tu-95 on planes parking on Engels airfield. They need a course of 3D-drawing %)

 

[Haiduk]

11th National Guard brigade hit with FPV drones Russian MT-LB with mounted naval 140 mm А-22 "Ogon' " MLRS mear Pidstepne village in Kherson oblast

A-22 MLRS was designed and adopted in 1988 for "Zubr"-class LCACs (pr.1232.2, NATO-code Pomornik)

Each "Zubr" had two A-22 launchers, total was planned to build 17 ships, but only 15 were completed. 

A-22 can use OF-45 HE and ZZh-45 incendiary rockets with 800-4500 m of range. Also new ammunitions OFD-45 with 9000 m range and turboreactive M-14OF with 10000 m of range and heavier warhead were designed. 

Russians use these launchers mainly like substitution of TOS-1A, using incendiary ammunitin though, this is not thermobaric weapon.

Recently MT-LB with A-22 launchers were identified as belonged to 205th motor-rifle brigade of 49th CAA

Edited October 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[kraze]

21 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Most people are ignorant of history, even their own.  It isn't a Western thing.  History is also distorted to suit the politics and culture of the present.  That also isn't a Western thing, as evidenced recently by book bannings and overtly politically established teaching standards in the US amply demonstrates.

So if you want to scream hypocrisy, that's fine.  But just remember it applies to your country/culture as much as it does everybody else's.

As an American who does not fall into the category of thinking "history is boring", I can say that it is commonly understood that the West "said one thing and did another" when it came to punishing Nazis for their crimes.  Whether it be using Nazi science and technology solidly connected to warcrimes and genocide, creating the myth of "good Nazi" to excuse working with war criminals, or understanding the role of the Catholic Church in providing escape routes for the worst of the worst of the Nazis... the information is out there for anybody who cares to look at it.

That said, you are wrong that West views the Red Army as "liberators".  The entire Cold War was spent vilifying the Red Army specifically and the Soviet Union generally.  Only the hard right and hard left whackos push back on that narrative, mostly by factually flawed "whataboutisms" and false equivocation of real events.  The closer someone in the West lives to the old Soviet sphere, the stronger the roots of disinformation.  However, what you are talking about is mostly a phenomena of the areas administered by the Soviet Union (internal and external), which makes sense since the last thing the Soviet Union would teach is "the Red Army was monstrous".

A correct and academic view of the war clearly shows that the Nazi regime raised and recruited a large number of non-German units primarily for maintaining order within its borders of the Reich through terror, murder, rape, plunder, and the whole list of horrible things Humans do to one another.  Ukrainians were also recruited explicitly for roles in the Final Solution, in particular camp guards.  Eventually those units were incorporated into the Waffen SS and the interplay between guards, "police", and soldiers was blurred even more.  The same was true for the Germanic SS units, especially the Totenkopf Division.

So, bottom line, is that not all Ukrainians who were part of the Waffen SS committed the worst sort of war crimes, but the units themselves did.  Therefore, they should not be celebrated as freedom fighters, but instead correctly labeled instruments of terror.  Even the cooks and the clerks had their role to play in those crimes, just as the cooks and clerks in the Russian army today do.

Steve

So if that was true - how come a supposed raping/terrorizing SS soldier was never accused in Nuremberg and instead got a Canadian citizenship?

Shouldn't that be a big no no in 1954 when there was a ton of witnesses alive and Canada itself fought in WW2? And he wasn't the only one who got the citizenship by far. I mean if he is a war criminal then he should've stood trial. There were 78 years to do it, no? He wasn't hiding.

But now he is a war criminal out of the blue without the trial or proof because exactly ignorance.

If SS Galicia committed such horrible crimes against locals - we would be seeing evidence of that every step of the way as Ukrainians are rather touchy regarding traitors of their own during those times. We would be seeing court cases all over every territory and from relatives they tortured and raped. No? Certainly not getting citizenships in Canada.

Or maybe they were indeed used to fight russians.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Destroyed, damaged/abandoned UKR vehicles on the way to Surovikin line toward Verbove. Price of our advance is very high 

 

This imagery is really powerful, brother.

That said, I take comfort in:

(a) nearly all these wrecks do NOT look like brew-ups, which we like to hope lets the crews/passengers disembark to fight another day.

(b) they are pretty much all pointed toward the front, which implies Ivan is not knocking off resupply or medevac. At a guess, these are mainly mine immobs, subsequently hit again by arty?

Reading the expert commentary here (with thanks!) and viewing the latest anecdata (also, thanks to all!), it seems that ultimately, the breaking/exhaustion point for each side -- that is, the point where their formations simply become unable to accomplish offensive OR defensive tactical operations, regardless of Will or C3ISR, or congenital 'cursed capacity for suffering' / inbred desire to rape and loot

.... will be measured in blood and not treasure. What's that tipping point?

[Fernando]

28 minutes ago, Desertor said:

Are you sure? Because I’m Spanish but I don’t know this word 

Me neither. I looked for the word "mensa" in the RAE (Royal Spanish Academy) Dictionary. It seems it is a word used in Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, México and Nicaragua

menso, sa

1. adj. coloq. Ec., El Salv., Hond., Méx. y Nic. tonto (‖ falto de entendimiento o de razón).

[chuckdyke]

14 minutes ago, kraze said:

Or maybe they were indeed used to fight russians.

In the Netherlands if you fought the Russians 5years at the most if you manned a FLAK and shot at US or British Bombers or served domestically you faced the firing squad. 

[Haiduk]

Video of recently claimed Russian strikes with long-range gliding bomb-missiles "Grom-E1" (based on Kh-38 misisiles) on the pontoon and bridge through Oskol river near Kupiansk. In first case the ordnance was launched over Kherson oblast, so possibly Kh-38 missile was used, not "Grom-E1"

 

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

Russia is ramping up, the West is slowing down (or never even really started, like when it comes to economic sanctions).

I feared this would end up this way.

I don't think it will result on any offensive successes for Russia, but the suffering of Ukraine will simply draw out longer and longer.

I have been of this view since mid 2022. This labels me as a pessimist on this forum, although I have very badly wanted the Russians to hit their 'Uncle' point first, and quit, as they did in A'Stan, then Eastern Europe and then the USSR itself.

Unfortunately, the Arsenal of Democracy doesn't exist any more. There are probably as many or more cheerful Ukrainian Vikings capable and interested in becoming skilled machinists (or CAD draftsmen) than North Americans today, at a 10x population delta.  (And those in N.A. who do try to go into these fields are overwhelmingly Asian immigrants).

...The frat boys I went to uni with in the '80s who (unlike me, no I was the 'smart guy', too clever for all that) went to the elite banking jobs on Bay Street/Wall Street, and then on to private equity. Pretty much everyone else in our age group who chose a different profession has either struggled to prosper in a world shaped by these sh*theads, or basically become one of them, or served them. Time has done the rest, most of the folks who could recreate and manage the world we lived in as of Desert Storm 1991 are retired or dead.

And they shipped all that Making Lotsa Stuff Better Faster Cheaper capacity and knowhow offshore, piecemeal and then in huge chunks, first to Mexico and then to China, the moment e-commerce made it possible to do so (c. 1998-2003, depending on sector), with the active support of pretty much ALL political parties. Took them about 15 years to bleed out the industrial base of the US of A (of which Canada is merely region 5 or 6 on most corporate logistical maps).

Short of a mortal danger (i.e. invasion!) to North America, that capacity ain't ever coming back, no sense dreaming about it. Why would the finance bros give a rats, still less tolerate all the dot.Gov meddling, if they can't model 15% EIRR, with exit margin compression door-to-door returns of 24% within 2 years of FID? Lame!

So we must pray that our Ukrainian brothers can maintain their qualitative edge long enough to break that "Russian Will", before waves of cheap-and-cheerful-made-in-China clones of last-year's tech takes 2024 to a Passchendaele level of bloody for both sides.

I would love someone to convince me I'm wrong about any of the above, cuz I haven't found anyone, here or elsewhere.

So I'm left praying for Russian weakness, or some hidden reserve of common sense, reasserting itself and ending this thing.

Edited October 1, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[chris talpas]

Weekly dose of Perun, this time covering battlefield medicine

 

[Haiduk]

Importance of "horizontal communications" between units. 

Guys from 65th brigade called and tell they spotted two Russian BMPs, but their artillery is busy. But we have many friends - two phone calls and since 20 minutes these BMPs already burn. 

Location - near Kopani, west of Robotyne.

 

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Hapless]

Ukraine hitting the nail on the head again:

 

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Ukraine hitting the nail on the head again:

 

Here used play of words in UKR and RUS - "zamis"/"zamyes" - "kneading", which except bakery term means "intensive and hard fighting". This video is for multiple "armchair generals", who concerning about slow offensive, demand immediate results and give advices how to make war.

Soldier bakes the same sort of bread, calling "palianytsia", which became a shibbolth in first stage of war and a meme ) 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

17 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Another Ukrainian train being hit (albeit not very precisely) - I think it is 3rd this month.

There are analysis here on the milnet for last 2-3 months, indicating that Russians did significantly improved their targeting and are slowly gaining upper hand over Ukrainian AA structures, which suffers from dwindling stocks of old missiles. Thus we see muscovite surveillance drones running deeper into UA territory.

 

Of everything that is happening in this war right now, operationally this trend concerns me the most.  I noted the lack of a coherent Russian deep strike campaign from the beginning of this thing.  They bounced around, and for awhile looked like electricity infra was a thing.  Yet they never had the ISR or precision capability to target operational/strategic transportation infrastructure.

This is "only" a few trains, however, if Russia can actually put together and prosecute a disruptive operational strike campaign we could be entering a new phase of the war.  I still do not think it will allow the RA to re-engage in larger operational offensives, my guess is that their backs are broken on this.  But it will allow them to significantly disrupt UA strategic and operational LOCs.

No before anyone get too excited, this would need to be several orders of magnitude in scope and scale to achieve that effect - why Russia wasted thousands of missiles all over the freakin place with no coherent targeting enterprise is a mystery of this war.  So we are no a crisis point, yet.  I suspect Ukraine is fixing these lines in hours.  But it is still not a good trend.    

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Fernando said:

It seems it is a word used in Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, México and Nicaragua

 

 

[paxromana]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Of everything that is happening in this war right now, operationally this trend concerns me the most.  I noted the lack of a coherent Russian deep strike campaign from the beginning of this thing.  They bounced around, and for awhile looked like electricity infra was a thing.  Yet they never had the ISR or precision capability to target operational/strategic transportation infrastructure.

This is "only" a few trains, however, if Russia can actually put together and prosecute a disruptive operational strike campaign we could be entering a new phase of the war.  I still do not think it will allow the RA to re-engage in larger operational offensives, my guess is that their backs are broken on this.  But it will allow them to significantly disrupt UA strategic and operational LOCs.

No before anyone get too excited, this would need to be several orders of magnitude in scope and scale to achieve that effect - why Russia wasted thousands of missiles all over the freakin place with no coherent targeting enterprise is a mystery of this war.  So we are no a crisis point, yet.  I suspect Ukraine is fixing these lines in hours.  But it is still not a good trend.    

It is virtually impossible to shut down a rail line ... track repairs, as you note, generally take mere hours. Switching gear is a little harder.

Power supplies for electric trains requires more precisiopn than the Russians are showing even now and, as Ukraine has already shown, they have the capacity to switch to diesel for the short outages.

The thing that really disrupted the Western French rail net in the runup (and follow on) from Normandy was the Allied Airforces dropping every bridge within 200 miles of the invasion beaches and then having air Supremacy that made daylight road marches to the front ... lethal.

In Germany the Strategic Bombing Campaign again only started to shut down German rail traffic when the bridges started to be dropped* and, perhaps more importantly, they started hitting the Switching Yards so new consists could only be formed by physically tipping rolling stock off the rails (effectively destroying it).

And, of course, with Air Supremacy Fighter and Fighter Bomber Jocks found that shooting up trains with cannon and HMG is great fun!

* By the end of the war the SBS estimated that nowhere in Germany could trains run more than 12 miles (IIRC) without running into something the prevented further travel - either completely or until repaired.

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, kluge said:

Search https://archive.is/ for https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-jet-ski-raid-crimea-russians-dead-9h2gzckpj and that should do the trick

Thanks for getting us around the paywall.  The Times is a quality publication, but there are only so many subscriptions a guy can have.

The details from this article, I think, finally give us a comprehensive understanding of the raid that we've so far been lacking.  It's incredible and on par with any of the famous raids of past wars.

This got me thinking.   Prior to this war the general view in the West was that Russian Spetsnaz would conduct these sorts of raids.  Certainly the prewar Spetsnaz forces were trained for physically challenging and highly risky actions like this.  But instead we got moronic helicopter assaults in the first days of the war and that's about it.  I've only seen a few tactical raids attributed to them since.  Spetsnaz have instead been used as regular infantry.

Another major failing of the Russian military to make note of.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

23 minutes ago, paxromana said:

And, of course, with Air Supremacy Fighter and Fighter Bomber Jocks found that shooting up trains with cannon and HMG is great fun!

Yes if you are able to completely disconnect from the reality of what you're actually doing, then killing people in war is great fun.