How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

47 minutes ago, Huba said:

Missile diving into BSF HQ caught on camera:

 

Last photo named "explosions in Sevastopol Bay area" indeed smoke screen - Russians already several times during UKR attacks set smoke (aerosole) screen over the bays. How it help against GPS guided weapon, I don't know

[Lethaface]

41 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Dumb question of the day:  how does degrading RU naval capabilities affect the war?  Because these ships launch missiles at UKR?  Because these ships would attack other shipping?  To some here may seem dumb question, but seriously what does this achieve?  I get how much fun this is to watch, but since it's a land war what does this do?

If ultimately there is no more Black Sea Fleet good enough to protect any Russian shipping / ports in the Black Sea and it's ports, that might become problematic for any Russian shipping in the Black Sea. (and like others said, will help allow Ukraine shipping)

Edited September 22, 2023 by Lethaface

[Haiduk]

Some about Russian reaction on this strike. Multiple questions about "red lines", impotence of military command (but no one risk to say this about Putin) and demands to nuke British Naval HQ (because this was UK missile) 

Some Russian TGs claimed the missile, which hit HQ the building was ATACAMS, but on the stop-cadre it's seen Storm Shadow

During strike operation Poseidon P-8A was on mission over Romania. One Russian military or milblogger in milityary uniform demands in RIA Novosti  reportage that any NATO plane, conducting recon mission have to shoot down with warning. 

 

Ex-BSF commanader Vladimir Komoyedov demands immediate strikes on buildings of General Staff, MoD and President Administration in Kyiv (I more that sure they will attempt with ballistic missiles, so we can have "fun nights" again, like in May, when Russians tried to destroy Patriots around Kyiv)

 

But what with current BSF commander? There is no confirmed information, Russians officially say about one missed, but RUMINT says the strike was in time of meeting of BSF staff and allegedly dozen servicemen were kileld, among them four officers, and about dozen were wounded. As if BSF commander admiral Viktor Sokolov was killed, but this is not confirmed.

 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Dumb question of the day:  how does degrading RU naval capabilities affect the war?  Because these ships launch missiles at UKR?  Because these ships would attack other shipping?  To some here may seem dumb question, but seriously what does this achieve?  I get how much fun this is to watch, but since it's a land war what does this do?

As I understand it,  It's a common misperception that land wars function separately from naval campaigns.

Both domains reinforce the other, providing unique services and support that one domain does not have but the other does. 

Fundamentally, every naval campaign is about the protection/denial of sea trade, because nothing else but ocean going ships can move the same volume and quantity of goods and material. Trains are simply not equivalent

But ships need bases, so land warfare is need to protect/acquire those. The naval bases and trade ports can intake a huge amount of material (because ships,  above) which can allow for large scale supply of an inland campaign. Think Pusan,  cherbourg etc. 

Sevastopol serves the same function,  even more so with the Kerch bridge in play. 

I suspect the bridge will be the last bit of Russia to go.. 

 

[cesmonkey]

What do you think would be a good target for ATACMS containing sub-munitions?

[Haiduk]

Some more Russian "insides" how it reliable it's a question

About strike on 744th Comm center of BSF Command. It's turned out this is not only comm center, but also reserve command center (RCS) of BSF. Allegedly it was built in underground bunkers under the rocks. But here Russian TG "Naval power of state" say:

Concerning RCS sort of also bad news. Its can't be posted here, so we have nothing to refer except ukies. We can сome to harm [if will post it]. And so, we have sh...tload of bad news, which while in a shade. 

 

About crash of Su-34 in Voronezh oblast on 20th of September

TG "BRIEF" claims it was 34th non-combat loss of Russian aviation since SMO have been starting.

Very questionable inside, but let it be...

Germany will give Ukriane first batch of 45 Taurus missiles in nearest time. The second batch in 50 missiles will be of 50 missiles and will be handed over up to 10th of November

Pentagon will deliver 30 ATACAMS missiles and three transport-loading vehicles to them up to October.  

Tanks M1A1 already in Rzesov. Transferring on Ukrianian territory will begin from night of Saturday.

 

UKR sources, refering to US sources claims ATACAMS will be only with cluster warheads.

 

[Haiduk]

26 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

What do you think would be a good target for ATACMS containing sub-munitions?

Airfields. Berdiansk, for example and Crimean of course

[A Canadian Cat]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

30 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

What do you think would be a good target for ATACMS containing sub-munitions?

Airfields. Berdiansk, for example and Crimean of course

Plus HQs and logistic sites that were moved out of HIMARS range.

[danfrodo]

39 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

As I understand it,  It's a common misperception that land wars function separately from naval campaigns.

Both domains reinforce the other, providing unique services and support that one domain does not have but the other does. 

Fundamentally, every naval campaign is about the protection/denial of sea trade, because nothing else but ocean going ships can move the same volume and quantity of goods and material. Trains are simply not equivalent

But ships need bases, so land warfare is need to protect/acquire those. The naval bases and trade ports can intake a huge amount of material (because ships,  above) which can allow for large scale supply of an inland campaign. Think Pusan,  cherbourg etc. 

Sevastopol serves the same function,  even more so with the Kerch bridge in play. 

I suspect the bridge will be the last bit of Russia to go.. 

 

I understand how land and sea CAN be linked.  But I was asking more about HOW they are linked in this war.  For instance, how does destroying RU sub help?  Because it shot missiles?  Because it was a threat to grain shipments?  Both?  Neither?  

Meanwhile, I keep waiting for my neighbor to be correct that this week is UKR 'breakthrough', whatever that might look like.

[TheVulture]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some more Russian "insides" how it reliable it's a question

About strike on 744th Comm center of BSF Command. It's turned out this is not only comm center, but also reserve command center (RCS) of BSF. Allegedly it was built in underground bunkers under the rocks. But here Russian TG "Naval power of state" say:

Does that mean that the main command center and reserve command center of the BSF have both been hit in a few days? (reserve on 20th, HQ today). Combined with the USV attack on russian ships and the dry docks, they are really turning up the pressure on the black sea fleet.

Well, if it's vulnerable, and expensive to replace, then why not. And it helps drive home the point (along with the increasing attacks on Russian infrastructure) that this isn't a war happening "somewhere else" as far as the Russians view it, but something that is having increasingly large effects in Russia that were obviously way beyond what was originally advertised.

Not that the Russians as a whole are going to be swayed by this, on current evidence...

[Haiduk]

Except BSF HQ in Cremea also was hit some repair unit in 7 km NE from Bakhchisarai

Local chats of Sevastopol about four hours ago reported about new explosion, there was opinion thermal plant was hit, but it wasn't condirmed. There is no information yet what it was.

Sevastopol authorities say firemen localized fire in HQ building (it has been burning more than 6 hours). Still no information about losses

Likely as a revenge Russians launched two missiles at hospital in Kremenchuk, Poltava oblast. Reportedly it was civil hospital, but now it also treats wounded soldiers. AD shot down one missile, but other hit building, as result one killed, 31 wounded (including three children). Also there are reports about explosions in Zaporizhzhia

Edited September 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Crimean ATESH resistanse writes today's the strike would be impossible without work of usual pro-UKR citizens of Sevastopol and ATESH agents. It's also claimed because of Russian MoD delays payment of officers, it's more easy to induce cooperation with BSF staff officers. 

I think, last statement is a sort of PsyOps, like a statement of Budanov, that GUR now prepares desertion of several other pilots with own aircrafts. This should to cause the wave of untrusting, total verifications and suspicious inside Russian command staff. 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

20 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I understand how land and sea CAN be linked.  But I was asking more about HOW they are linked in this war.  For instance, how does destroying RU sub help?  Because it shot missiles?  Because it was a threat to grain shipments?  Both?  Neither?  

Meanwhile, I keep waiting for my neighbor to be correct that this week is UKR 'breakthrough', whatever that might look like.

The more the Black Sea fleet and Russian Air Force must move away from Crimea to the east, the better for defenses of the Black Sea ports, and better for the Black Sea shipping. If Ukraine opens up grain shipments, not only is it valuable money, it’s a potent tool of international relations, to influence states to recognize Ukraine’s commitment to the world, to illustrate Russia’s disregard and waning military capability.

[kluge]

9 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I understand how land and sea CAN be linked.  But I was asking more about HOW they are linked in this war.  For instance, how does destroying RU sub help?  Because it shot missiles?  Because it was a threat to grain shipments?  Both?  Neither?  

The destroyed submarine is now ~2.5k tons of scrap metal taking up space in the dry dock. Not exactly trivial to clear out, and so long as it sits there, the dry dock is unusable.

Ukraine is presenting Russia with a dilemma: either Russia can keep operating out of barely functional facilities in Sevastopol and face further destruction, or it can move its fleet farther away from Ukraine but in doing reduce its control over Ukraine's trade routes.

[dan/california]

58 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

What do you think would be a good target for ATACMS containing sub-munitions?

Airfields, equipment concentrations, petroleum storage, air defense systems, and so many more.

[Kinophile]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Except BSF HQ in Cremae also was hit some repair unit in 7 km NE from Bakhchisarai

Local chats of Sevastopol about four hours ago reported about new explosion, there was opinion thermal plant was hit, but it wasn't condirmed. There is no information yet what it was.

Sevastopol authorities say firemen localized fire in HQ building (it has been burning more than 6 hours). Still no information about losses

Likely as a revenge Russians launched two missiles at hospital in Kremenchuk, Poltava oblast. Reportedly it was civil hospital, but now it also treats wounded soldiers. AD shot down one missile, but other hit building, as rersult one killed, 31 wounded (including three children). Also there are reports about explosions in Zaporizhzhia

And there's Russias future defeat in a nutshell - it loses major strategic and operational assets and all it can do is hit wounded soldiers and children. Horrible as it is it does nothing to stop another strike. 

Hit the ****ers.  Hit them again. Keep hitting them until they leave. Not so they  understand or realise the error of their ways, just get rid of them.

[A Canadian Cat]

20 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Keep hitting them until they leave.

Keep hitting them as they leave. Then if they don't stop with the terror attacks keep hitting them after they leave.

[Yet]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Dumb question of the day:  how does degrading RU naval capabilities affect the war?  Because these ships launch missiles at UKR?  Because these ships would attack other shipping?  To some here may seem dumb question, but seriously what does this achieve?  I get how much fun this is to watch, but since it's a land war what does this do?

i Share this question. 

imo its: 

- grain export (morale, money, looks politically good)

- morale (ukr can hit Crimea & biggest pride left of former 2nd world army-the fleet-)

- less rockets on powergrid & random  'targets'

- successes for international media consumption

- limiting logistic/transport options to Crimea.. for future plans

- making it longer for RU to military recover after the war. 

..... making RU to make choices? not so much I think, every choice will go to reinforcing the line with trenches, mines. mobiks, guns, drones, artillery.

If i forgot something or anyone can make a direct link to the ground war; id be happy to hear it. All of these things help of course -in the long run-. and it seems or could be more of a marathon than the sprint some people thought it would.. so not at all a bad strategy! 

However, the direct short term effect on the land war is small i think - taking out radars & airforce (and ofc troops, trenches, arty, etc) does have a bigger impact.

[Haiduk]

Some combat videos

UKR Marder of 82nd air-assault brigade got two ATGMs in front projection near Verbove. First hit didn't cause an ignition, about second one hard to say, we can see white smoke, but video ends. 

Russian counter-attack attempt somewhere near Novoprokopivka. Likely close hits of IFV gun and several FPV strikes forced them to retreat along the trench

Next two videos are enough brutal

Russians got hell in the trench

Despite popularity of FPV, 30th brigade on northern flank of Bakhmut successfully uses grenade dropping too

On what I want to pay attantion - it's enough high level of survavibility of infantry under fire. Looks like body armor gives enough chances to survive and get mostly light injuries from close grenades or HEAT charges explosions. To take out a soldier you should to hit it with light explosive directly or at least in a step near his legs 

Edited September 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

A propos Russian capabilites in replacement department...why they removed those barrels despite possesing abilties to produce spare ones? Perhaps only anecdotary evidence, but those who predicts Russians are running low will like it.

 

[Hapless]

36 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I understand how land and sea CAN be linked.  But I was asking more about HOW they are linked in this war.

One way to look at it is to consider what the Russians get out of the Black Sea Fleet:

• Roving air defence/radar pickets that are much harder to track down than land-based assets.
• Strike capability with a much easier avenue of attack on Ukrainian grain exports- whether at sea or in port. As we've seen recently with Poland, forcing Ukraine to seek other means of distributing it's grain can create political friction within supporting international structures.
• Logistics back-up for the Kerch Bridge.
• A fleet-in-being: because naval forces can move faster and with less restrictions than land-based forces, Ukraine constantly needs to worry about what the BSF might do and where it might be today. That uses up assets and bandwidth that Ukraine could be using elsewhere, as well as impinging on Ukraine's freedom of action.

Remove the Black Sea Fleet and Ukraine should have an easier time striking Russian logistics infrastructure in Crimea (only having to deal with comparatitvely predictable land based air defence (which they've been striking)), which should significantly degrade Russian forces in the south and lube up the counter-offensive.

That's on top the psychological benefits- we all saw the reaction when Ukraine sank Moskva. That wasn't only an important boost for Ukraine, but demonstrated Ukrainian abilities and resolve to the world.

Stuff like that.

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Use your second amendment

 

Perhaps you meant to say “First Amendment,” that guarantees the rights to free speech, freedom of religion, and freedom of association instead of the “ Second Amendment,” that guarantees the right to keep and bear arms. The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) has defined “arms” as any item that can be used for self defense.

Just to be clear, the first line regarding the “Militia” applies to the States and the “People” applies to the Citizens. The militia was comprised of the “People” (All males age 18 to 45), who were required to supply their own “arms” and ammunition.

That is of course, assuming you aren’t suggesting violence against said individual?

[danfrodo]

50 minutes ago, Hapless said:

One way to look at it is to consider what the Russians get out of the Black Sea Fleet:

• Roving air defence/radar pickets that are much harder to track down than land-based assets.
• Strike capability with a much easier avenue of attack on Ukrainian grain exports- whether at sea or in port. As we've seen recently with Poland, forcing Ukraine to seek other means of distributing it's grain can create political friction within supporting international structures.
• Logistics back-up for the Kerch Bridge.
• A fleet-in-being: because naval forces can move faster and with less restrictions than land-based forces, Ukraine constantly needs to worry about what the BSF might do and where it might be today. That uses up assets and bandwidth that Ukraine could be using elsewhere, as well as impinging on Ukraine's freedom of action.

Remove the Black Sea Fleet and Ukraine should have an easier time striking Russian logistics infrastructure in Crimea (only having to deal with comparatitvely predictable land based air defence (which they've been striking)), which should significantly degrade Russian forces in the south and lube up the counter-offensive.

That's on top the psychological benefits- we all saw the reaction when Ukraine sank Moskva. That wasn't only an important boost for Ukraine, but demonstrated Ukrainian abilities and resolve to the world.

Stuff like that.

Thanks Hapless and the others for providing some excellent info as per my question.  I should just ask dumb questions to tee y'all up for easy answers 

So it sounds like there's immediate good things and also UKR is reducing RU ability to do other things later -- threaten ships, backup transport if bridge blown

[sross112]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Thanks Hapless and the others for providing some excellent info as per my question.  I should just ask dumb questions to tee y'all up for easy answers 

So it sounds like there's immediate good things and also UKR is reducing RU ability to do other things later -- threaten ships, backup transport if bridge blown

A lot of good points so far. I would add:

Others stated that it reduces the number of missile threats, but I would think that the threat from ship launched missiles is probably greater than the air launched (could be wrong, open to other's opinions). The air traffic and bomber fleets seem to be watched pretty good and give the AD good prior warning to the numbers and direction of incoming targets, whereas ship launched ones don't telegraph intentions and can probably be launched from closer ranges thus reducing the ability to counter them. 

Another thing is every platform removed is one less patrolling or monitoring Ukraine's sea operations. Which in turn gives them more flexibility for movement and raids.

Lastly, they are big hits and impossible to hide. There are lots of videos of tanks going boom, but Russians can shrug and say they have thousands of tanks. They can also say it is a UA tank as they use the same models. Other than the "smoking incidents" propaganda attempts, it is really hard to downplay the loss of these assets to the Russian people or the world. 

[Harmon Rabb]

Exclusive Interview With Ukraine’s Spy Boss From His DC Hotel Room

Budanov was interviewed during his trip to D.C.

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by Harmon Rabb