How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Ultradave]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 and b) they had enough margin of error for those who didn't sign off on something. 

I think this is a key point about the situation. The majority (in both houses) is so tenuous, there isn't room for "permission" being given to vote against something to make the points of the extremists. They need every single vote or nothing will happen.

I'm not as optimistic that a shutdown will be averted, based on the inability to even get a defense budget to the House floor so far. And at that, I defense budget that probably won't pass the House, and definitely won't pass the Senate. There is little time left to pass a continuing resolution, as a minimum. And if McCarthy gets one passed, it will have to be with the help of Democrats in the House, and that will be the end of his speakership, causing even more chaos before a serious budget can be passed.

Ugh. Something tells me I'll be dipping into savings for expenses for a bit (even if we get it back eventually).

Good to hear though that aid to Ukraine will be considered essential by the Pentagon.

Dave

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Strikes me as a bit odd to reproach the Poles for getting rid of their old stuff, seeing as that old stuff was the same Soviet era stuff Ukraine was already using. A day after the invasion, if the Polish MoD offered Ukraine 200x Leo 2A6 OR 200x T-72, Ukraine would've been mad to take the Leos. Poland gave what was needed then and there. They also gave the Ukrainians Krabs, so it's not just old junk. Heck, their giving pattern isn't wholly dissimilar to the Dutch. I mean, old *** YPRs, second hand Leo 1A5s and PzH 2000.

So how about everyone calms their tits?

 

[Beleg85]

Another strike on Sevastopol; this time headquarters of BSF was targeted:

 

[Harmon Rabb]

7 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Poland used this war to get rid of it's old military junk, get compensated for it by the EU and order new stuff for it's armed forces. As simple as that.

I would not categorize all the material aid that Poland sent to Ukraine as junk. Poland was also one of the first countries to offer to send fighter aircraft...Opening the doors to the F-16s that we are all waiting for day and night.

Anyways, when I made my comment I was not just talking about military aid, I was also talking about actions like accepting over a million and a half Ukrainians as refugees. I know other countries also took Ukrainian refugees but Poland took a large number for a country of its size.

I remember hearing Ukrainian soldiers saying that they will forever be grateful to Poland knowing that their family is safe in Poland when they are fighting the Russian invaders.

When I made the comment that relations between Poland and Ukraine have improved greatly since the war started, I did not know it would be this controversial around here. If it is so divisive maybe we should just move on to talking about the progress of the AFU on the battlefield.

Edited September 22, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Kinophile]

53 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

 

So how about everyone calms their tits?

 

Hah,  love that phrase.  Plus it doesn't get *** by the forum algorithm! 

[FancyCat]

Videos of fire at the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet.

 

[FancyCat]

For what should be one of the most fortified areas of Russian occupied Ukraine, to be enduring such lengthy bombardment, oof, just oof.

Quote

In 10 days, Ukraine: 1. Destroyed a submarine and a warship by hitting a Sevastopol dry dock 2 . Reopened unilateral commercial shipping to Odesa 3. Hit a Sevastopol bunker with the back-up Black Sea Fleet HQ 4. Struck the main HQ in central Sevastopol. https://t.co/6YgmhaoTJU

 

[cesmonkey]

Video clips from Sevastaopol from a pro-Russian western journalist:

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Harmon Rabb]

To lighten thing up around here. Looks like our favorite stone faced intel guy made his way to D.C.

[Lethaface]

2 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Strikes me as a bit odd to reproach the Poles for getting rid of their old stuff, seeing as that old stuff was the same Soviet era stuff Ukraine was already using. A day after the invasion, if the Polish MoD offered Ukraine 200x Leo 2A6 OR 200x T-72, Ukraine would've been mad to take the Leos. Poland gave what was needed then and there. They also gave the Ukrainians Krabs, so it's not just old junk. Heck, their giving pattern isn't wholly dissimilar to the Dutch. I mean, old *** YPRs, second hand Leo 1A5s and PzH 2000.

So how about everyone calms their tits?

 

If I had m

I think you have a fair point. Personally I feel Poland (especially the Polish people) was an important force behind the support of Ukraine after the war started and probably / hopefully still will be.

At the same time, on this forum (and beyond) it was German bashing day for quite a while because of, mostly, stupid words by German politicians. There were also lists about who has the largest support stick and Germany was frowned upon for not playing their part. 

In the meantime Germany has been growing their stick relatively and absolutely (as some had expected) and generally says less stupid stuff.

Now Polish PM says some stupid stuff, which amounts to 'our farmers will lose money because of Ukraine grain and we don't like what Ukr says, so now we will stop all military support'. (everybody lost money because of Ukraine and sometimes they can be a bit rude with their requests. But hell they are in a war).
And now 'the media' does the exact same thing to Poland as what they did to Germany earlier. If you don't like the heat, stay out of the kitchen.

And especially since the Polish government were happy to jump on German bash bandwagon themselves not too long ago, I think this is a form of tit for tat which they will just have to take on the chin like a man.  'wie een bal kaatst ...' 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by Lethaface

[Haiduk]

BSF HQ from other point of view.

For citizens of Sevastopol, who known with own boast and snobbery that they are live in the place of Russian glory and legendary BSF, who from the cradle know the city anthem "Legendary Sevastopol impregnable for foes", for them this HQ building is almost sacral center. So, the strike on it is almost the same if White House in Washington would be hit

 

[Snols]

After WoW ("Wolski o Wojnie") FB and YT account. About polish support. Autotranslate from his FB post:

"

I see that the manipulation of Morawiecki's statement is beginning, and yet both fragments can be directly quoted:

"We will certainly not risk Ukraine's security, which is why our hub in Rzeszów, in consultation with the Americans and NATO, continues to play the same role as before. And it will continue to do so."

Nothing more needs to be added here. Supplies of materials for the defense of Ukraine have been, are and will continue.
However, the second fragment manipulated in the message:

"We are no longer transferring any weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming ourselves
with the most modern weapons. If you don't want to defend yourself, you must have SOMETHING to defend yourself - this is our principle. And that is why we have made increased orders (...) we are focusing on quickly arming the Polish army."

Of course, the statement is taken out of context and manipulated, but this is the truth: while other large NATO countries give equipment from arms depots after disbanded units, Poland is the only country with numerous land forces that donated equipment taken from the lines. Taken from Polish soldiers from line units. The Germans are giving museum equipment - Leopard 1A5s, which even the Ukrainians did not want to accept. We are giving Leopard 2s that we are taking from the line in 10BKPanc, we are giving a battalion of Wolverines that we are taking from 17WBZ, we have given and are still giving "Twarde" PT-91s taken from the lines in Braniewo and Giżycko.
More than 270 T72M1/M1Rs donated to Ukraine were tanks freshly renovated from frontline units of the Polish Armed Forces.
In 2019, Poland nominally had 861 tanks. We donated approximately 350 of these to Ukraine.
40%! No one has given more than us in relation to the armed forces. Artillery?
By spring 2022, the Polish Armed Forces received approximately 82 Krab AHS. 54.65% went to Ukraine! I ignore deliveries from this year. There are many such examples. No one gave as much as Poland and as quickly as Poland. We simply don't have anything to give anymore. Because we have already taken it from a Polish soldier to give it to a Ukrainian one. We temporarily weakened the Polish Armed Forces, but thanks to the fact that equipment from Poland saved Ukraine, our security per se increased - by stopping Russian imperialism on the battlefield and by bleeding the Russian Armed Forces. In return, we buy new equipment, but these purchases - due to the need - are not optimal - we buy them on different terms because we have no choice. And the equipment is just arriving. We will close the gap for approximately 30-40% of the Land Forces by at least 2027-2028.
I really hope that the ill-considered statements of the Ukrainian side and the row over grain are the result of the position of the oligarchs and the quality of the political class in Ukraine, and not a cynical conclusion that we have already given everything we could give...

Please forward the entry. It will not make up for the damage that an ill-considered and out-of-context tweet from the Prime Minister's statement (from the PRM account) will make up for, but maybe it will explain the situation a little better."

Pleas consider this before writing bull**** about Poland support and selfishness.

 

[cesmonkey]

Nice chart from Rybar:

 

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, Snols said:

After WoW ("Wolski o Wojnie") FB and YT account. About polish support. Autotranslate from his FB post:

"

I see that the manipulation of Morawiecki's statement is beginning, and yet both fragments can be directly quoted:

"We will certainly not risk Ukraine's security, which is why our hub in Rzeszów, in consultation with the Americans and NATO, continues to play the same role as before. And it will continue to do so."

Nothing more needs to be added here. Supplies of materials for the defense of Ukraine have been, are and will continue.
However, the second fragment manipulated in the message:

"We are no longer transferring any weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming ourselves
with the most modern weapons. If you don't want to defend yourself, you must have SOMETHING to defend yourself - this is our principle. And that is why we have made increased orders (...) we are focusing on quickly arming the Polish army."

Of course, the statement is taken out of context and manipulated, but this is the truth: while other large NATO countries give equipment from arms depots after disbanded units, Poland is the only country with numerous land forces that donated equipment taken from the lines. Taken from Polish soldiers from line units. The Germans are giving museum equipment - Leopard 1A5s, which even the Ukrainians did not want to accept. We are giving Leopard 2s that we are taking from the line in 10BKPanc, we are giving a battalion of Wolverines that we are taking from 17WBZ, we have given and are still giving "Twarde" PT-91s taken from the lines in Braniewo and Giżycko.
More than 270 T72M1/M1Rs donated to Ukraine were tanks freshly renovated from frontline units of the Polish Armed Forces.
In 2019, Poland nominally had 861 tanks. We donated approximately 350 of these to Ukraine.
40%! No one has given more than us in relation to the armed forces. Artillery?
By spring 2022, the Polish Armed Forces received approximately 82 Krab AHS. 54.65% went to Ukraine! I ignore deliveries from this year. There are many such examples. No one gave as much as Poland and as quickly as Poland. We simply don't have anything to give anymore. Because we have already taken it from a Polish soldier to give it to a Ukrainian one. We temporarily weakened the Polish Armed Forces, but thanks to the fact that equipment from Poland saved Ukraine, our security per se increased - by stopping Russian imperialism on the battlefield and by bleeding the Russian Armed Forces. In return, we buy new equipment, but these purchases - due to the need - are not optimal - we buy them on different terms because we have no choice. And the equipment is just arriving. We will close the gap for approximately 30-40% of the Land Forces by at least 2027-2028.
I really hope that the ill-considered statements of the Ukrainian side and the row over grain are the result of the position of the oligarchs and the quality of the political class in Ukraine, and not a cynical conclusion that we have already given everything we could give...

Please forward the entry. It will not make up for the damage that an ill-considered and out-of-context tweet from the Prime Minister's statement (from the PRM account) will make up for, but maybe it will explain the situation a little better."

Pleas consider this before writing bull**** about Poland support and selfishness.

 

You are (also) manipulating yourself here. Germany has given Leo2A6, among other stuff which aren't museum pieces. But I'll digress, I just think it is funny when people who do like bashing can't take bashing themselves.

[holoween]

Also poles like to conveniently ignore this when discussion contributions.

But lets put this to rest. Polish military aid has been invaluable by being there early on and in quantity.

But polish rethoric quite often doesnt square with their actions especially if there is a chance to screw over germany.

[dan/california]

https://www.threads.net/@24hoursukraine/post/Cxf2q-7tN6N

A new mine detection robot with big ultra low pressure tires that can just not set off most mines. The kind of clever engineering that will be needed to de-mine Ukraine this century.

Edited September 22, 2023 by dan/california

[Harmon Rabb]

U.S. close to providing Ukraine with long-range cluster missiles (The Washington Post)

[Beleg85]

40 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

You are (also) manipulating yourself here. Germany has given Leo2A6, among other stuff which aren't museum pieces. But I'll digress, I just think it is funny when people who do like bashing can't take bashing themselves.

True, but bashing is not equal to other bashing, especially when dipped in clear historical prejudice and based on some made-up facts. Also, none of us here spoke negatively about average German citizen nor throw epithets that he is greedy and arrogant, like user who started this entire issue habitually do to Central Europeans in general. Hell, not even about DE government, and if you remember we criticized it pretty strongly together with our German members trying to figure out what was driving them during Leo debate. I think you were the part of it.

33 minutes ago, holoween said:

Also poles like to conveniently ignore this when discussion contributions.

Not at all, this issue was adressed multiple times. Basically, such tables can tell you very little, as they describe only stiff netto numbers and not include differences in value of workforce, massive advantages in new markets, fluctuations of capital (material and intellectual), pruposful tax evasion by some countries, brain drainage etc. If somebody thinks that EU decision-makers suddelnly, collectively get out of their minds and did giant job of convincing their population to enlarge Union on pure whim - then I'd call him to read a little more on the process...

 

Ok, let's go forward into more productive topics folks.

Edited September 22, 2023 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

U.S. will send Ukraine ATACMS long-range missiles for the first time (NBCNews)

 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Beleg85]

4 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

U.S. will send Ukraine ATACMS long-range missiles for the first time (NBCNews)

 

NBC site is blocked somehow, do they specify the numbers? "Small" can range anything from several to low hundreds.

[Harmon Rabb]

Just now, Beleg85 said:

NBC site is blocked somehow, do they specify the numbers? "Small" can range anything from several to low hundreds.

Quote

President Joe Biden has told his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that the United States will provide a small number of long-range missiles to aid the war with Russia, three U.S. officials and a congressional official familiar with the discussions told NBC News on Friday.

The officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly, did not say when the missiles would be delivered or when a public announcement would be made.

 

For months, Ukraine has asked for the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, which would give Kyiv the ability to strike targets from as far away as about 180 miles, hitting supply lines, railways, and command and control locations behind the Russian front lines.

 

Defense officials have said the U.S. does not have a large stockpile of excess ATACMS, which have a bigger payload than traditional artillery, to provide to Ukraine. Also, some in Washington have resisted supplying the weapon, known colloquially as “attack-ems,” out of fear that it would widen the war with Russia.

The congressional official said there was still a debate about the type of missile that would be sent and how many would be delivered to Ukraine. They added that countries in Eastern Europe had already given Ukraine large portions of their weapons stockpiles.

 

[Letter from Prague]

Consider in US small coke is like half liter and small car has six tons, I hope it's at least a thousand.

[Lethaface]

35 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

True, but bashing is not equal to other bashing, especially when dipped in clear historical prejudice and based on some made-up facts. Also, none of us here spoke negatively about average German citizen nor throw epithets that he is greedy and arrogant, like user who started this entire issue habitually do to Central Europeans in general. Hell, not even about DE government, and if you remember we criticized it pretty strongly together with our German members trying to figure out what it was about. I think you were the part of it.

I agree that Aragorn, at times, can put things out of proportion and or have a certain bias I don't necessarily share. In fact, the war in Ukraine is probably one of the not so many subjects I mostly agree with him about.

At the same time there are also posters here on the other side of the spectrum, blaming all west Europeans for thinking of East Europeans as lesser (I'm not thinking about you, nor do I think that way). Among other things.

And yes part of the critics regarding Germany were very on point. I do personally think there is to be made fair criticism against Poland/PiS too, although mostly outside of their conduct in this war. 
But you know how the media work, they're going to create as much drama as possible. First with Germany, now with Poland. Since I don't like PiS, my opinion is: fair game.

There is also much critical to say about our (NL) government (at least I do), although regarding Ukraine they have done quite well so far.

35 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Not at all, this issue was adressed multiple times. Basically, such tables can tell you very little, as they describe only stiff netto numbers and not include differences in value of workforce, massive advantages in new markets, fluctuations of capital (material and intellectual), pruposful tax evasion by some countries, brain drainage etc. If somebody thinks that EU decision-makers suddelnly, collectively get out of their minds and did giant job of convincing their population to enlarge Union on pure whim - then I'd call him to read a little more on the process...

All the lists have limited value. These ones and the ones about who gave the most in support to Ukraine. 

I do think it is important to realize that all the average people in EU/Europe are impacted by the consequences of the war and our support for Ukraine. If one will leave the ship (or talks about leaving), it is not unlikely others will follow. Poland playing hardball by itself, because national economic interests, is sort of openings pandora's box. 
Therefore I think criticism is very much fair, even (or especially) if it was only election rhetoric with no real consequences other than the impact from media.
If you are PM you know very well how your words will be spinned. Your PM seems above average with regards to skill in playing that game.

 

35 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, let's go forward into more productive topics folks.

So soon?  but i agree, I had my fun already.

Edited September 22, 2023 by Lethaface

[Heirloom_Tomato]

12 hours ago, MikeyD said:

If the House is going to put on an annual pantomime they should be obliged to dress up as Punch.

But, wouldn't that require a dress code?/s

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

If I had m

I think you have a fair point. Personally I feel Poland (especially the Polish people) was an important force behind the support of Ukraine after the war started and probably / hopefully still will be.

At the same time, on this forum (and beyond) it was German bashing day for quite a while because of, mostly, stupid words by German politicians. There were also lists about who has the largest support stick and Germany was frowned upon for not playing their part. 

In the meantime Germany has been growing their stick relatively and absolutely (as some had expected) and generally says less stupid stuff.

Now Polish PM says some stupid stuff, which amounts to 'our farmers will lose money because of Ukraine grain and we don't like what Ukr says, so now we will stop all military support'. (everybody lost money because of Ukraine and sometimes they can be a bit rude with their requests. But hell they are in a war).
And now 'the media' does the exact same thing to Poland as what they did to Germany earlier. If you don't like the heat, stay out of the kitchen.

And especially since the Polish government were happy to jump on German bash bandwagon themselves not too long ago, I think this is a form of tit for tat which they will just have to take on the chin like a man.  'wie een bal kaatst ...' 

 

This...

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

You are (also) manipulating yourself here. Germany has given Leo2A6, among other stuff which aren't museum pieces. But I'll digress, I just think it is funny when people who do like bashing can't take bashing themselves.

... and this precisely.

Nobody doubts what the Polish people have done for Ukraine. But other countries (incl. Germany) have also taken many, many refugees. And other countries (incl. Germany) have contributed equipment from their active units or equipment that was supposed to go to active units. And yes, Poland has contributed equipment that was supposed to be replaced, anyway. That's perfectly ok because other countries did that, too, or sent stuff that has been deprecated already (Leopard 1s).

What other governments didn't do was try to squeeze out every little bit of profit there was to gain for their election campaigns. Other governments didn't claim the moral high ground the way the Polish government did. Others also didn't spread anti EU and anti Germany sentiments while gladly taking their money. He who lives by the sword, dies by the sword, as the saying goes. So, if the Polish government sings the song of solidarity with Ukraine, while bashing others, they had better make good on their words.

Anyway, let's not escalate this too much. Scholz & Co deserved a lot of the criticism they received and we German forumites just had to deal with it. I think the Polish government had this coming a long way, so the Polish members here will have to just deal with it, too. I admit to enjoying some Schadenfreude but I'll enjoy it quietly.

Edited September 22, 2023 by Butschi
typos