How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Interesting qualitative first from Korea:

 

 

Here's the original news article:
 

 

[Billy Ringo]

9 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

"Leaked"    Well, I am an expert with 38 years of submarine construction and testing, and as a subject matter expert I can say that that submarine is truly f-ed, FUBAR, SNAFU, scrap metal. 

Aren't you glad I'm here to provide you with my expert opinions?   

And kudos to Ukraine. Nice shot. 

Dave

 Hurumph.  Tis but a mere flesh wound

[Kinophile]

Hilarious 

 

 

[Tux]

14 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

"Leaked"    Well, I am an expert with 38 years of submarine construction and testing, and as a subject matter expert I can say that that submarine is truly f-ed, FUBAR, SNAFU, scrap metal. 

Aren't you glad I'm here to provide you with my expert opinions?   

And kudos to Ukraine. Nice shot. 

Dave

The fact there’s smoke coming from both(!) massive holes in the hull doesn’t exactly scream “superficial damage only”, does it?

[poesel]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

....Another thing to consider is that:

1. Subtractive (cutting) operations were absolutely revolutionised in recent decades

Did I miss something? What do you mean and how many decades?

5-axis milling is easily in hobbyist range. Machining tolerances are mostly a function of how good your linear bearings are and China has some decent ones. If you have the money you can mill turbine parts in your basement.

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

2. Pressing/forging - not so much

I know some people who would strongly argue that point.

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

[Even if] there's a Chinese multi-axis machine in a Russian military plant, it will be almost certainly equipped with Fanuc/Siemens controller.... It is necessary to make Western machine tool producers stop support and maintenance of their machines in Russia.

Unfortunately, once this kind of machine is set up it doesn‘t need much specialised maintenance. You get the consumables from everywhere including the tools and the control software runs well enough without need for an update.

TL;DR: the manufacturers of those machines cannot do much after it has been delivered.

[Tux]

13 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Hilarious 

 

 

Best one yet. I was trying not to cry thinking about this on a work call…

[Kinophile]

Well this is interesting 

Seems way far for a "helo" journey,  even with stops. 

Doesn't say exactly which PMC or what,  but they're certainly not regular MoD/GOV forces. 

Intwestwing,  werry werry Intwestwing... 

 

[Bearstronaut]

Aww man, I go away to drill for the weekend and I missed the BattleTech discursion? Steve, when can we get Combat Mission: BattleTech?

 

Back to the main topic, yet another ChrisO thread on how crappy life is in the Russian Armed Forces. I honestly don't know how they keep fighting. 

 

[Bulletpoint]

9 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

Aww man, I go away to drill for the weekend and I missed the BattleTech discursion? Steve, when can we get Combat Mission: BattleTech?

 

Back to the main topic, yet another ChrisO thread on how crappy life is in the Russian Armed Forces. I honestly don't know how they keep fighting. 

 

They have apparently been fighting with shovels since early March.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64855760

Russian trolls and bots are still making fun of that in the youtube comments sections.

Sounds like they now will have new fuel.

[FancyCat]

Tweet author is part of WSJ so operating under safe assumption that this is real, indeed it's insane.

Quote

Bonkers Russian Army recruitment commercial, in which soldiers under fire in a trench discuss Ukrainian real estate investments. (One wants to buy an apartment in Kyiv’s tony Pechersk neighborhood once it is conquered, the other says he prefers Odesa because of the sea…)

 

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Tweet author is part of WSJ so operating under safe assumption that this is real, indeed it's insane.

 

Lebensraum, well that is a golden oldie.  Good old fashion greed and conquest.  Well at least they are telling the truth now and not trying to dress it up as anti-Nazi, anti-NATO, anti-whatever…it is a pure and simple land grab.  

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Lebensraum, well that is a golden oldie.  Good old fashion greed and conquest.  Well at least they are telling the truth now and not trying to dress it up as anti-Nazi, anti-NATO, anti-whatever…it is a pure and simple land grab.  

They will be very disappointed by their new places, what with it being seven feet by three feet, and six feet deep. You always have read the fine print of the fine print in a Russian contract. You have to read it twice, carefully, and sober. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

Aww man, I go away to drill for the weekend and I missed the BattleTech discursion? Steve, when can we get Combat Mission: BattleTech?

 

Back to the main topic, yet another ChrisO thread on how crappy life is in the Russian Armed Forces. I honestly don't know how they keep fighting. 

 

It is incredible how the mil bloggers spin this.  Here's how it goes with reality in (

1. the village is important and it is why Ukraine is launching suicidal waves (Ukraine is probing hard and using lots of artillery)
2. our brave defenders are in a "difficult" situation (friendly casualties are to the point that Ukraine is able to make progress)
3. we continue to hold it despite Ukraine throwing everything at us (Ukraine already has a foothold)
4. contrary to reports, we have not lost the village (Ukraine has control of the village)
5. yes, Ukraine shows pictures of their forces in the village, but we hold a chicken coop on the outskirts of town so technically we haven't lost it (yesterday they had the chicken coop, today they have nothing)
6. we have counter attacked and thrown the Ukrainians out of this key village (a lot of Russians got killed and maybe they have that chicken coup back)
7. after much struggle, Ukraine now controls the village.  Fortunately, it was just a few houses of no value even before everything was turned to rubble (suddenly the village has no value to Russia)
8. our forces are now conducting major counter attacks to retake the village (just as suddenly the village has great value to Russia)
9. reports of Ukraine attacking beyond the village are untrue.  They strike with artillery, but our forces still hold key ground around the village (Russians have permanently lost control of the village)

Well, that's my take on it anyway

Steve

[Rokko]

3 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

Aww man, I go away to drill for the weekend and I missed the BattleTech discursion? Steve, when can we get Combat Mission: BattleTech?

 

Back to the main topic, yet another ChrisO thread on how crappy life is in the Russian Armed Forces. I honestly don't know how they keep fighting. 

 

I've been wondering this myself for a long time, but for me personally this seems to be the most likely explanation:

These cases of extreme disfunctionality within certain Russian units seem to be confined to a sizable, but ultimately not overwhelming, minority of the Russian forces in the field. They are apparently especially prevalent among Storm-Z (literal cannon fodder) units as well as those run by the L/DNR (de-facto cannon fodder), whose units are by all accounts more run like criminal gangs than military outfits. As of late, the latter also affect mobiks from Russia proper sent to L/DNR units as reparations for killing off most of the male Donbas population.

So let's say there are 10-15% of all Russian forces that are in a truly abysmal state like the one in the cited example. This number appears to be relatively stable though, or it does not grow quickly enough. The other issue seems to be the "silent majority" of all other Russian forces, who don't produce these goofy appeal videos and whose relatives do not complain online that their husbands and sons are left to rot in Ukrainian fields. This "other" Russian army seems to be moderately competent (at least on the defense) motivated and able to coordinate with supporting arms, we just don't really hear from them and this warps our perception of the actual state of the Russian army.

I don't really see how the "achievements" of the Russians could be otherwise explained, as underwhelming as they are. But if these incidents were affecting the majority of Russian forces, I can not see how they could still be holding on. I still remember being confused by this already in the Spring of 2022, when they were still advancing! Anybody else remember the reports by that RU volunteer who fought around Popasna for a couple of months, Viktor Shaiga or something? I distinctly remember having trouble to match his reports with the fact that the Russians were making any progress at all, even then.

Edited September 18, 2023 by Rokko

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Hilarious 

 

 

This is new one ) Here is two older - BTR and KRAZ

 

 

[TheVulture]

Curious article from Russian newspaper Kommersant about how Russian drone manufacturing is having problems because of Chinese restrictions on exports to Russia. Article is paywalled (and in Russian), but the free section auto-translated gives the outline.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6223010

Quote

Drones do not reach Russia

China's restrictions have led to disruptions in the supply of drones and components

As Kommersant found out, restrictions on the export of drones introduced by the Chinese authorities seriously complicated their deliveries to Russia and led to a shortage of a number of components, such as thermal imagers. Large Russian drone manufacturers have managed to create significant reserves and hope that their suppliers in China will be able to obtain licenses for export to the Russian Federation, but registration may take up to a year. To do this, it is necessary to prove that the drone will not be used for military purposes. Sellers of Chinese drones in the Russian Federation are trying to establish parallel imports. However, some complain that Kazakhstan recently tightened the import procedure.

As Kommersant learned, restrictions on the export of drones introduced by China from September 1 led to the suspension of supplies of components and drones themselves weighing more than 4 kg. There is already a shortage of certain types, including agrodrones, which weigh on average 30–40 kg and are still produced in the Russian Federation in single copies.

 

[Haiduk]

Leopard 1A5 in UKR service. Alas, Florks will be dissapointed - it's turned out engine of Leo1 can't carry additional weight of ERA so far. 

[Haiduk]

12 hours ago, Teufel said:

Spread things like this! 31st Guards needs new commander and quickly!

 

It's turned out Kondrashkin was a commander of 85th motor-rifle brigade of LNR. As I wrote recently, origins  of this brigade is 54th motor-rifle regiment of 6th motor-rifle division of 3rd Army Corps. The Corps was established in autumn 2022. By unknown reason 54th regiment was disbanded likely in February-March of 2023 and on its place was formed 85th MRBr, which was transferred to 2nd Army Corps (LNR forces).  

85th MRBr holds positions on northern flank of Bakmut in Berkhivka - Yahidne area

Edited September 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[Centurian52]

On 9/17/2023 at 12:34 AM, holoween said:

I think youve misunderstood me.

So simple question is this a tank:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiesel_AWC

And currently the answer is a simple no. If it turns a corner and is suddenly faced with an MBT or IFV it will simply get destroyed.

But if you remove all heavier vehicles because they are too expensive it now can destroy whatever is around the corner. And at that point its a tank.

 

I think a Wiesel is best classified as a tankette. Is a tankette a tank if there are no MBTs? I don't know. But I suppose the answer, whatever it is, is probably relevant to whether or not we refer to small, tracked, gun-armed UGVs as "unmanned tanks". My stance on the issue is that some sort of direct-fire asset will continue to be a part of the ground warfare combined arms team. Whether or not that direct-fire asset is called a "tank" remains to be seen.

[Haiduk]

Evacuation of wounded soldier of 3rd assault brigade. M113/YPR with back ramp and roomy infantry compartment is a treasure. It would be impossible to evacuate this soldier on Soviet BTR and much harder to put him into narrow BMP back door.

 

[Haiduk]

Athmospherical drone video over Klishchiivka in morning fog and smoke from 5th assault brigade

 

[Haiduk]

Russian Ministry of Labour and Social Protection ordered 230 000 certificates for family members "of killed (died) war invalids, Great Patriotic War participants or combat actions participants". Obviously most of new certificates relates to latter category. Also since June these certificates also will be issued not only for members of killed regular army soldiers, but also for those, who were lost in different volunteer units (PMCs and Shtorm Z are questinable). Ministry of Defense will get 200 000 certificates and 30 000 Ministry of Labour and Social Protection. 

Last ordering of these certificates was in May - for 23716 persons.

But this 200 000 is not equal to 200 000 killed in Ukraine! Certificates can receive father and mother of soldier, his wife and children under 23. So, this number you have to divide on four or five. 

Total from beginning of war Ministry of Labour and Social Protection already ordered 936052 certificates of combatants. 600 000 of them for MoD, 60 000 - Ministry of Internal Affairs, 10 000 - Rosgvardiya, Ministry of Social Protection - 85 000, Ministry of Building - 500. 

Article in Russian: https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/09/18/pravitelstvo-zakazalo-230-tisyach-udostoverenii-dlya-semei-pogibshih-na-voine-a107249

Edited September 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Evacuation of wounded soldier of 3rd assault brigade. M113/YPR with back ramp and roomy infantry compartment is a treasure. It would be impossible to evacuate this soldier on Soviet BTR and much harder to put him into narrow BMP back door.

 

Earlier in the war I saw a video of Ukrainians trying to load a badly wounded comrade into a BTR.  They managed to do it, but it wasn't easy.

Steve

[Teufel]

7 hours ago, Ultradave said:

"Leaked"    Well, I am an expert with 38 years of submarine construction and testing, and as a subject matter expert I can say that that submarine is truly f-ed, FUBAR, SNAFU, scrap metal. 

Aren't you glad I'm here to provide you with my expert opinions?   

And kudos to Ukraine. Nice shot. 

Dave

Privileged to be in company of specialists like yourself. Next case for expert opinion coming up (if true). This thing just got repurposed to be used as submarine.

 

Edited September 18, 2023 by Teufel

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Privileged to be in company of specialists like yourself. Next case for expert opinion coming up (if true). This thing just got repurposed to be used as submarine.

 

Oh, that is nice!

At the very least it was probably attacked, which gets us to a rather interesting point in this war... Ukraine is finally able to systematically go after Russia's navy at port and at sea, near and far away.  It won't take long to cripple Russia's naval capabilities.

I wonder how long it will take Ukraine to go after the transport ships that reportedly moved into the Sea of Azov.  As discussed before, those are extremely high value targets as their loss could cripple Russia's work around for rail/road disruptions in/out of Crimea.

Steve