How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Ok, having “worked on the inside,” and having a discussed or been a party to discussions on “creative” ways to obtain money fo “pet” projects, I can say with much certainty that virtually every Administration, Agency, Department, Division, Directorate, and office unit, including the Judicial and Legislative Branches of the Government has done, and continues to do the same, no matter which Party is in power.

For sure.  "Creative accounting" happens at the state, county, and municipal levels too.  Military and corporate worlds as well.  Party has nothing to do with it.  Hell, we almost had an under-the-radar contract for CM1 and the US Army through some creative accounting.  So I'm not opposed to concept in principle

However, my point is that very large and high profile "creative account" that is vehemently opposed by the other party is rare in my experience of watching this stuff.  That is why I singled out diverting military funds to build a wall, which is clearly not what Congress allocated those funds for.  It is also why I compared it to Biden's constraints on playing fast and loose with his authority.  It will get noticed and, unlike finding money for 10 computers that weren't in the budget, be challenged in court at a minimum.

Which is to say that Biden's potential to work around a worst case intransigent GOP lead House is not zero, but it certainly isn't the same as it's been for the last two years.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Report estimating that Ukraine has destroyed 24 Russian aircraft while they were within the borders of the Russian Federation.  Once again Ukraine shows themselves to be superior to Russians, who only managed to down 7 of their own aircraft over their own territory

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Rybar bragging that Ukraine doesn't control Robotyne because Russia controls, and I quote, "5 or 6 houses on the souther outskirts, albeit half destroyed".  I'm sure the Russian MoD is pleased with this sort of reporting.

The rest of his statements are not necessarily inaccurate, as is the case with much of Rybar's reporting since the war started.  The fighting from Robotyne was quiet today from what I can tell, and yes they have shifted fighting to the southeast.  But the most likely reason for that isn't because Russia's troops victoriously hold 6 houses in Robotyne, but because there's more opportunities further south.

He's also correct that although Ukraine has, in fact, taken some fighting positions in the Verbove, it isn't yet anything resembling a breakthrough.  However, he isn't really telling the truth about the breach either (big surprise).  The importance of whatever successes Ukraine had is that they had any at all.  They have only just advanced to the 1st line and almost immediately had more success than they did in weeks of fighting in the forward positions.  Could be a fluke, could be that it's something repeatable.  That possibility should be worrying to the Russian propagandists, so I can understand why they skipped over that bit.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Interesting read. I'm not certain if these "tree lines" remind CM players of the bocage. 

A while ago, there was a discussion on a Chinese forum where people spoke pessimistically about Ukraine's offensive. One guy listed the difficulties of the terrain. He mentioned that fighting in these tree lines is akin to fighting in the bocage. A small yet determined defender could delay the attacking force for a significant amount of time. In Normandy, under the cover of bocage walls, the German forces maneuvered into the flank of the Allied forces, using panzerschreck and LMG to harass them. In Ukraine, the open fields between the tree lines are much larger than the bocage terrain (ranging from 1km x 1km to 1km x 2km). However, with modern ATGMs' range, the defender's firepower can easily reach the other side. The good news for Ukraine is that the Russian LMGs and HMGs cannot effectively engage at long distances. Therefore, the advancing Ukrainian force will not face fire from a diagonal direction. Nevertheless, this could be bad news for the overwatching Ukrainian soldiers too, as they would be unable to assist if their comrades get bogged down by fire from the other side of the treeline.

 

*******************************************************************************************

 

This is a highly interesting claim; however, it lacks substantial evidence. While some of Ukraine's video clips record their AFV and infantry firing into the treeline, not many Russian videos depict how they fight on the ground. Some video clips give people the impression that Russians are reluctant to move outside their prepared fighting positions. Therefore, fighting like the Germans, who sent a small detachment to harass the Allied flank, doesn't align with the Russian way of fighting.

The comment above isn't meant to downplay the difficulty of fighting in treelines but rather to argue that it might not be as challenging as fighting in the bocage.
 

I agree it isn't bocage level awful, it is the mines that have slowed Ukraine to a crawl. If Normandy had been mined the way Southern Ukraine is mined the Allies would have taken much longer to break out, if ever. And drones cut both ways for offense and defense. But Ukrainian tree lines just don't have the same absolute impassibility.

Edit: The question is has Ukraine made it through the worst of the mines

 

Edited August 31, 2023 by dan/california

[Grossman]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

I agree it isn't bocage level awful, it is the mines that have slowed Ukraine to a crawl. If Normandy had been mined the way Southern Ukraine is mined the Allies would have taken much longer to break out, if ever. And drones cut both ways for offense and defense. But Ukrainian tree lines just don't have the same absolute impassibility.

Edit: The question is has Ukraine made it through the worst of the mines

 

And in Normandy the Allies had total command of the air. The Germans had superior battlecraft and equipment, only overwhelmed by airpower. One can sense in Ukraine, the Ukrainians have superior battlecraft, and limited equipment with no command of the air, although command of the stratosphere and eyes over the territory. As with Normandy the strategy is to starve the Russian front lines of reinforcements and supplies, done through targeting with precision targeting and HMARs fire. In Normandy D-Day was June 6, July 25. The Canadians crossed the Seine on Aug 30. The abortive attempt on Hitler was July 20-44 ( we have had a revolt in Russia). Hitler was dead within a year. Normandy was the most intense battle of WW2. There is similar intensity in Ukraine, and it is costly in terms of lives. The strategists are planning for the Normandy scenario to be repeated in southern Ukraine. 

[Grossman]

Just now, Grossman said:

And in Normandy the Allies had total command of the air. The Germans had superior battlecraft and equipment, only overwhelmed by airpower. One can sense in Ukraine, the Ukrainians have superior battlecraft, and limited equipment with no command of the air, although command of the stratosphere and eyes over the territory. As with Normandy the strategy is to starve the Russian front lines of reinforcements and supplies, done through targeting with precision targeting and HMARs fire. In Normandy D-Day was June 6, July 25. The Canadians crossed the Seine on Aug 30. The abortive attempt on Hitler was July 20-44 ( we have had a revolt in Russia). Hitler was dead within a year. Normandy was the most intense battle of WW2. There is similar intensity in Ukraine, and it is costly in terms of lives. The strategists are planning for the Normandy scenario to be repeated in southern Ukraine. 

Cobra July 25th

[L0ckAndL0ad]

On 8/28/2023 at 9:51 PM, dan/california said:

Almost certainly JDAM-ER, or even some later successor munition to that. They are a great weapon system, but even if they have the munitions Ukraine just doesn't have enough airframes with the capability to deliver them to just blow entire sections of the Russian lines open.

On 8/29/2023 at 12:24 AM, akd said:

I believe JDAM-ER has been provided.

Not unexpected, but I've missed this development. Thanks!

On a similar note, I have another question. Why does the US sends AIM-9 missiles? Is that for modified Mig-29s? Or any land-based system like MIM-72 Chaparral or similar? I've seen it come up on several lists so far, but was puzzled. In my DCS A-10C experience, their use is quite limited on the front line due to short range. How are they being used?

 

Re: propaganda coverage

It is quite often VERY ridiculous (to someone who can compare information from multiple sources and has a brain). That Independence day raid was first described in local TG channels as "several unknown men [perpetrators] on boats attacked tourists on the shore line, then quickly retreated. No toruists were hurt". Other attacks are often described as "The grass is burning at [place X]. Emergency services are working. Trust only official sources!". Yeah, of course it's just a random patch of grass burning in the steppes.

"Nothing to see here, citizen! Move along!"

But I can tell you that there are reports on tourist season not being succesful here. It is not true, IMO. Unfortunately, there are LOADS of tourists. I have no idea how stupid one must be to come here for a vacation, but there are so many arrogant moscovites here, it doesn't seem any different from other years. It may be statistically smaller number, but it's not a "dead season", not even close.

The question that is bothering me is that, if we're going to be cut off from all sides here, how would 1.5-2 million civilians would be supplied here with food?

[Eddy]

Latest article from Kofman and Lee in War on the Rocks. 

Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Three months In - War on the Rocks

Well worth the read, although it's long.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Eddy said:

Latest article from Kofman and Lee in War on the Rocks. 

Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Three months In - War on the Rocks

Well worth the read, although it's long.

The Ukrainian military continues to struggle with scaling offensive operations, and conducting combined arms operations at the battalion level and above, with most attacks being at the level of a platoon or company....

Western official criticism that Ukraine won’t mass forces, and accept the inherent casualties in such an assault, fails to appreciate the real constraints on that military’s capacity to employ forces at scale. The United States has been misinterpreting this as a failure to commit forces to the offensive.

Given the challenges the new brigades faced at the beginning, brigade assaults with multiple battalions instead of companies likely would have exacerbated coordination issues and led to greater losses.

Ukrainian forces prefer sequenced assaults, making fires the decisive element and exploiting with maneuver, less so using fires as a supporting component of a maneuver force.

These much criticized 'company scale' actions aren't exactly pinpricks and seem to me well-suited to the fragmented combat environment and to the limited support/resupply/medevac capabilities of the UA. Kind of like Normandy, as others have noted, where even divisional attacks break up rapidly into smaller close actions encompassing 1 or 2 fields. Not much situational awareness of what's happening in the next hedgerow.

Also, they don't seem to wind down because the Russians reinforce and then outnumber the attackers. The 'scenarios' basically end once the enemy guns find the range.

In sum, this just doesn't seem to be a 'run the enemy out of reserves and then break through' kind of fight. At least not tactically.

Edited August 31, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Bulletpoint]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Rybar bragging that Ukraine doesn't control Robotyne because Russia controls, and I quote, "5 or 6 houses on the souther outskirts, albeit half destroyed".  I'm sure the Russian MoD is pleased with this sort of reporting.

To be fair, back in late May, Zelensky also claimed that Bakhmut had not fallen. At that time, Ukraine only kept a couple of houses on the westernmost outskirts.

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

The question that is bothering me is that, if we're going to be cut off from all sides here, how would 1.5-2 million civilians would be supplied here with food?

Unfortunatelly, that will play into Kremlin narrative, both inhabitants and tourists (I can easily imagine scenario when tourists are purposefully kept in cut-off Peninsula, in order to look it more dramatic). Crimea is by far only part of imagined Russian World where Kremlin mythology actually overlaps with apparent expectations of Russian society as a whole. They may not give a single kopieyka for people in Donbas, Rostov or Kaliningrad, but real danger for their "Russian California" may trigger more energetic response, perhaps in the form of additional mobilization efforts.

The big question is if Putin would like to play this game of activising broader support, though. As we all saw, it can be dangerous for him.

 

Perhaps it was posted before:

Isn't the 82nd that operates Challangers? We did not see them yet in fights if remember correctly.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Beleg85

[chuckdyke]

Read a good point on Twitter. You don't negotiate with putin. Look at Prigozhin who made a deal.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Perhaps it was posted before:

.

New to me!

Looks like at least 2x Stryker hit mines and look recoverable.  The 3rd Stryker is a total loss, perhaps hit by ATGM but also could be mine.  The Wolfhound looks like a write off.

There is also a destroyed tank off in the distance in the beginning of the first video.  Definitely Soviet type, not a Challenger 2 which the 82nd definitely has.  They also reportedly have Marders.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

Interesting, if true:

https://www.kp.ru/daily/27549/4816537/
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/52337
https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/18624579
 

Quote

FSB stopped a series of terrorist attacks in the Bryansk region, which was prepared by the Ukrainian DRG
© TsOS FSB of Russia
The department clarified that two saboteurs were destroyed, five were detained

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

These much criticized 'company scale' actions aren't exactly pinpricks and seem to me well-suited to the fragmented combat environment and to the limited support/resupply/medevac capabilities of the UA. Kind of like Normandy, as others have noted, where even divisional attacks break up rapidly into smaller close actions encompassing 1 or 2 fields. Not much situational awareness of what's happening in the next hedgerow.

 

Also, they don't seem to wind down because the Russians reinforce and then outnumber the attackers. The 'scenarios' basically end once the enemy guns find the range.

 

In sum, this just doesn't seem to be a 'run the enemy out of reserves and then break through' kind of fight. At least not tactically.

I haven't read this article yet, but from the previous one we gather that the criticism of Ukraine's counter offensive is that it isn't coordinated enough above the company level.  There's two ways to view this criticism within a sector of front:

1.  Tactically - Ukraine has difficulty operating more than 1 company in 1 battle at 1 place in 1 time.

2.  Operationally - Ukraine has difficulty conducting more than 1 battle in 1 place at 1 time.

It could very well be that the criticism of #1 is misplaced.  It could be that Ukraine has determined, through hard won experience, that the most likely outcome of massed forces is massed casualties without significantly better gains in terms of territory. 

What massed forces might do, and I stress MIGHT, is gain things faster.  The counter argument to that is fighting Russia is a marathon, not a sprint.  If Ukraine goes "balls to the wall" this month they might gain as much territory as they gained in the previous three, but then be spent and unable to continue on with Russian defenses still intact.

Based on everything we've observed, I think Ukraine is pursuing the correct strategy for the situation (which includes its resources).

However, I am inclined to agree with criticism #2.  For the most part Ukraine doesn't seem willing or able to hit Russian positions in multiple locations with full force concurrently within an active sector of front.  In theory, as well as practice of this war, this sort of pressure would stress Russia's ability to defend to a greater extent than it is with the current operations. 

Since this is an obvious strategy that has stood the test of time, in this war and going back into the mists of history, I am going to give Ukraine the benefit of the doubt that there's a justifiable reason for not doing the obvious.  My guess is that it largely has to do with a combination of inadequate quantity of operational assets (artillery platforms and ammo) and difficulty in managing said shortage.  Perhaps a NATO force could manage asset shortages better, I don't know, but if NATO would provide the amount of assets needed for the strategy that Ukraine has found works, then we wouldn't have to wonder!

In short, I think critics of Ukraine's approach should put a sock in it   I think they have figured out how to fight this war in the best way possible given the conditions they are working under.  It might not be what the West wants to see, it might not be enough to win the war outright, but I have faith that it is the best shot Ukraine has given the circumstances.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

In terms of criticism of not attacking at more than one place in a time, I think the minefields and fortifications slow things down enough that on a day to day basis, it may just not be possible to do coordinated attacks that have a hope of getting through the minefields.

These sudden breakthroughs are the results of lots of preparation, and can be derailed in a second when a mine plough or whatever important asset gets destroyed, or bogged down. So even if you coordinate multiple attacks, there’s a very good chance they’ll get uncoordinated, and this might even drive commanders to not bother coordinating because it’s just too high a chance vs focusing on the area at hand independently.

Now, if you compress time a bit, Ukraine is definitely attacking in multiple places at once, and I think once they enter the sparesely defended areas time will decompress and you’ll see multiple attacks at the same time.

EDIT: Edited for clarity.

Edited August 31, 2023 by kimbosbread

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

Not unexpected, but I've missed this development. Thanks!

On a similar note, I have another question. Why does the US sends AIM-9 missiles? Is that for modified Mig-29s? Or any land-based system like MIM-72 Chaparral or similar? I've seen it come up on several lists so far, but was puzzled. In my DCS A-10C experience, their use is quite limited on the front line due to short range. How are they being used?

I really don't know either!  What we do know is that the US keeps sending them and that implies Ukraine is using them.  Since we aren't seeing Russian aircraft dropping out of the skies from AIM-9 (as far as we can tell), it is likely Ukraine is using them against unmanned threats.  We do know that Ukraine's fighter aircraft are responsible for downing many of the slower moving drones, but there's not been any clear reporting (as far as I know) of what they are using to make that happen.  AIM-9 seems logical for this role, but it could also be ground based systems are using AIM-9 against unmanned targets as well.

5 hours ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

Re: propaganda coverage

...

"Nothing to see here, citizen! Move along!"

This meme encapsulates this very well:

5 hours ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

The question that is bothering me is that, if we're going to be cut off from all sides here, how would 1.5-2 million civilians would be supplied here with food?

I don't know.  What I do know is that every time I think of this I also think of you, your family, and those like you who would choose to end this insane war tomorrow if you had the ability to do so.

I suspect that if all the bridges into Ukraine are fully severed, enough food will be moved in by ships to keep people from starving.  Food quality and variety will suffer, so I don't expect it will be pleasant for you. 

Helping things, at least a little, will be an exodus of people FINALLY understanding that Crimea is effectively a warzone.  The first to go will likely be the ones with the least ties to Crimea, starting with the tourists and more recent immigrants from the mainland.  Then it will extend to those who have a lot of money and/or solid ties (family/friends) that can help them relocate.  The remaining people (the majority of the population) will be stuck.

Steve

P.S.  thanks for the observations about the tourist season.  It says a lot about the general Russian population's attitude that this war doesn't concern them.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

In terms of criticism of not attacking at more than one place in a time, I think the minefields and fortifications slow things down enough that on a day to day basis, it may just not be possible to do coordinated attacks that have a hope of getting through the minefields.

These sudden breakthroughs are the results of lots of preparation, and can be derailed in a second when a mine plough or whatever important asset gets destroyed, or bogged down. Now, if you compress time a bit, Ukraine is definitely attacking in multiple places at once, and I think once they enter the sparesely defended areas time will decompress and you’ll see multiple attacks at the same time.

What we've seen in this war so far is that Ukraine is able to strategically support offensive activities in 2 or more sectors concurrently.  Right now we're seeing this play out in the south (Robotyne) and the east (Bakhmut) on a daily basis.  It is also able to periodically mount significant secondary attacks within a sector.  Generally it is able to carry out small attacks pretty much everywhere.

What we rarely see these days is something like what apparently is happening in Andriivka (south of Bakhmut) right now.  Apparently 3rd Assault Brigade is doing a simultaneous pincer attack on the village from north and south.  This is likely at least 2 reinforced companies operating at the same time towards a singular objective.  This caught my attention because it's one of the few that I've seen recently, but it is the sort of thing that I thought would be routine when this counter offensive started.

Steve

[akd]

Interesting strike drones adapted to a very specific set of targets:

 

[Bearstronaut]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

P.S.  thanks for the observations about the tourist season.  It says a lot about the general Russian population's attitude that this war doesn't concern them.

It's absolutely wild to me that Russians can feel that way with a war that has killed or maimed hundreds of thousands of their men and led to (now) near nightly drone raids into their cities. I spent most of the last decade on active duty in the US Army and I felt that the general American public felt that our wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan didn't concern them. In a sense they were correct. Our casualties were relatively light and the war was fought entirely by volunteers. I remember being in high school during the worst days of the Iraq War in 2006 and talking to a girl who didn't even know we were at war. However, I really don't think that would be the case if we were in the type of war Russia finds itself in. Says a lot about Russian society and culture to be perfectly honest.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Bearstronaut

[Twisk]

Contextually I think it points out Russia's continued imperial existence as opposed to the U.S.'s federal one. In the U.S. someone from Florida and Washington are equal and the civilian population has internalized that. You couldn't run a war by only drafting Florida men. Politically it would be a non starter.

However, in Russia you can go outside of the core and draft men and send them off to die. They aren't Russian although they are under Russian rule.

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

It's absolutely wild to me that Russians can feel that way with a war that has killed or maimed hundreds of thousands of their men and led to (now) near nightly drone raids into their cities. I spent most of the last decade on active duty in the US Army and I felt that the general American public felt that our wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan didn't concern them. In a sense they were correct. Our casualties were relatively light and the war was fought entirely by volunteers. I remember being in high school during the worst days of the Iraq War in 2006 and talking to a girl who didn't even know we were at war. However, I really don't think that would be the case if we were in the type of war Russia finds itself in. Says a lot about Russian society and culture to be perfectly honest.

Yeah, and it's not just the casualties and direct costs of the military conflict that the US population would freak out about.  Imagine if the Afghan or Iraq wars did this to the average American (in no particular order):

1.  lost good paying jobs on a large scale

2. removed huge amounts of consumer goods and services from daily access

3. prevented, or at least hindered, travel to other countries

4. had an immediate and noticeable negative impact on domestic priorities, such as health care

5. resulted in retaliatory attacks on homeland military related targets in direct response to attacking civilian targets

6. diplomatically cut off from the entire world except the dregs

7. culturally cut off from the entire world (no sports, no music, no cultural exchanges, etc)

8. ever increasing threat of arrest and punishment for speaking one's mind

9. (for those who pay attention) all indications that all of this would continue to get worse with each passing day until the country collapsed under the weight of the collective problems

I think if any one of these started to go down Russia's path there would be riots in the streets until it was reversed.

Steve

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, and it's not just the casualties and direct costs of the military conflict that the US population would freak out about.  Imagine if the Afghan or Iraq wars did this to the average American (in no particular order):

1.  lost good paying jobs on a large scale

2. removed huge amounts of consumer goods and services from daily access

3. prevented, or at least hindered, travel to other countries

4. had an immediate and noticeable negative impact on domestic priorities, such as health care

5. resulted in retaliatory attacks on homeland military related targets in direct response to attacking civilian targets

6. diplomatically cut off from the entire world except the dregs

7. culturally cut off from the entire world (no sports, no music, no cultural exchanges, etc)

8. ever increasing threat of arrest and punishment for speaking one's mind

9. (for those who pay attention) all indications that all of this would continue to get worse with each passing day until the country collapsed under the weight of the collective problems

I think if any one of these started to go down Russia's path there would be riots in the streets until it was reversed.

Steve

A generative AI definition of ressentiment is useful here:

"Ressentiment is a feeling of deep-seated resentment, frustration, and hostility. It can also be a cautious, defeatist, or cynical attitude based on the belief that individuals and human institutions exist in a hostile or indifferent universe or society. 
Ressentiment can be induced by more durable, intense, and, on occasion, abstract sources, including social–structural features. It can also be a chronic feeling of resentment and hostility harbored by one individual or group against another. 
Ressentiment was of particular interest to some 19th century thinkers, most notably Friedrich Nietzsche. According to Nietzsche, ressentiment is a sense of hostility directed toward an object that one identifies as the cause of one's frustration. It is an "instinctive reaction" to suffering."

It would be hard to find a more apt description of modern Russia than that. 

 

 

Edited August 31, 2023 by billbindc

[Splinty]

Let's not forget the stories of how Russian soldiers coming home from Ukraine are treated. From what I've read it's worse than how US vets were treated during the Viet Nam era. On the other hand US vets returning home from Iraq and Afghanistan were judging from my own experience, were treated very well, regardless of people's opinions on the wars themselves.

[chrisl]

14 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Ok, having “worked on the inside,” and having a discussed or been a party to discussions on “creative” ways to obtain money fo “pet” projects, I can say with much certainty that virtually every Administration, Agency, Department, Division, Directorate, and office unit, including the Judicial and Legislative Branches of the Government has done, and continues to do the same, no matter which Party is in power.

Regarding the U.S. Federal shutdowns, there have been four. They were one under Clinton in 1995-1996, one under Obama in 2013, and two under Trump in 2018 and in 2019. I was personally involved in the shutdown in 2013. All four shutdowns occurred basically after almost all of the Moderates in the House and Senate had either retired from office or been voted out by the two groups of extremists. Before that time, the opposing parties actually negotiated their positions in “good faith.”

Fun fact, most Federal employees actually look forward to a shutdown (starting  saving up in August for the bi-weekly income loss) because Congress has always passed a bill to pay everyone in arrears after the shutdown ends and there is a new budget. Basically extra vacation time for which they weren’t charged.

And since most contracts are forward funded with spending authorizations that reach out at least several months, it's usually possible to keep all the gov't contractors working unless the shutdown stretches long enough for them to hit the limit of their authorized spending.  If you're on a contract that has schedule problems, it's like a time machine because gov't time stops but you have a chance to catch up.