How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

45 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Man that is convoluted logic.  So Ukraine taking back Crimea and Donbas is somehow directly linked to the entire Russian federations means, motive and opportunities to continue this war…and somehow also stay together as a functioning nation?  

That makes no sense.  Russia is a large power that could lob missiles and drones at Ukraine while sponsoring all sorts of terror and insurgent action for decades.  They don’t need “worldwide sentiment” anymore than North Korea does.  In fact given the ridiculous insecurity of the Russian mindset I suspect they will keep the war going just to avoid turning on each other, “A long struggle against NATO in Ukraine to keep us safe”.

If you honestly believe that retaking those 2014 borders is going to magically end this thing and peace will simply emerge, well I think you may be disappointed.  The only way to get Russia to stop and adopt peace is to either remove Russian Will to wage the war entirely, or increase the deterrence (eg NATO membership).  The trick with killing Will is that it cannot completely collapse the state itself.  

I would disagree, they absolutely need worldwide sentiment! India, China, Iran, other states whom Russia exports to for absolutely needed imports and currency to keep their economy afloat, in the event that Russia loses the Donbas and Crimea, those states have to continue weighing supporting Russia, assisting it avoid sanctions, exporting needed military hardware vs increasing sanction and Western pressure to stop supporting Russia. 

For example, consider China, say they want to keep sapping NATO strength, so they keep supporting Russia? If Russia loses the Donbas and Crimea, and continues to attempt to lob missiles and drones, what does China get out of supporting Russia still? They can't take back the Donbas or Crimea, NATO anti-air and anti-drone weaponry flow into Ukraine, attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure have already shown decreasing utility. What does China get back from Russia conticing a war of missile lobbing and civilians dying? Nothing, as war or no war, Russian exports must go to China anyway. 

As for sponsoring terror and insurgent action.....i think Russia has way more to fear from Ukraine on that front, we have Ukraine conducting assassinations, deploying drones in Russia's rear today, attacking air bases, refineries, threatening Russia's oil exports via the Black Sea....a situation where Ukraine retakes all territory, Russia is reduced to lobbing missiles, looks terrible from a international perspective, and recall the point today, where Ukrainian drones and missiles smack Russian airbases and skyscrapers, consider the extended viability of Ukraine justifying further attacks on Russian soil in response to Russian terror when Ukraine's territorial wishlist is fulfilled and the West can't gripe and groan about scaring the Russian bear. 

[kimbosbread]

15 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

For example, consider China, say they want to keep sapping [US strength] strength, so they keep supporting Russia?

Oh yeah, fantastic, get the US to ramp up weapons production, get the US an ally with tons of experience with cheapo drones land and sea…

Winnie the Flu isn’t the brightest bear on the block, but I don’t think any of this was anticipated, and the CCP is now trying to figure out how to balance their desire to be a super power with the desire to not be associated with Russia and with their brewing economic and demographic issues. Being saddled with Russia in a forever war with the west, which by the way has ramped up production of weapons that are cheap and fast and effective, and iterating hard, and might provide a way to take out China’s ships in the South China Sea and go through their air defenses???

I can’t believe China would of its own free will give the US a laboratory on how to negate both ships and missiles and missile defences in a restricted body of water (and with allies who can make the requisite munitions on a budget). They can’t be that dumb, can they?

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Oh yeah, fantastic, get the US to ramp up weapons production, get the US an ally with tons of experience with cheapo drones land and sea…

Winnie the Flu isn’t the brightest bear on the block, but I don’t think any of this was anticipated, and the CCP is now trying to figure out how to balance their desire to be a super power with the desire to not be associated with Russia and with their brewing economic and demographic issues. Being saddled with Russia in a forever war with the west, which by the way has ramped up production of weapons that are cheap and fast and effective, and iterating hard, and might provide a way to take out China’s ships in the South China Sea and go through their air defenses???

I can’t believe China would of its own free will give the US a laboratory on how to negate both ships and missiles and missile defences in a restricted body of water (and with allies who can make the requisite munitions on a budget). They can’t be that dumb, can they?

Xi is supporting Russia, to the modest extent that he is, because he thinks it would be bad for him if Putin finishes face planting. i am morally certaian he is furious with Putin for bleeping this up and making the entire axis of evil look bad, complete with an infinity of video daily. IMHO, worth what you paid.

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

The objective was the Suez Canal. Behind Egypt you get? Behind Stalingrad is the Caucasus and also oil.

The Sinai Peninsula & the Negev Desert ... which have no oil in the period.

Palestine, full of those pesky Haganah and Irgun guys who know exactly what to expect from the Germans? And no oil.

Syria. Yep, some oil.

But the Italians have. effectlvely, no Oil Tankers ... they lost almost all of the few they had when they foolishly declared war in 1940 and the bulk of them were in allied ports. As it was, they had to ship oil to the DAK largely in ordinary merchantmen in 44 gallon drums!

And what is the chance that the Oil terminals in allied occupied Syria would be taken intact?

(and, no, even if they then managed to take the Iraqi oilfields, well, the chances of the Iraq-Syria pipeline being taken intact? Ni! The chances of the Iraqi oilfields being taken intact? Nil.

Even if theyu did ... there is no rail link between Iraq and Turkey (the Berlin-Baghdad RR was torn up in Iraq after WW1. And the Turkish RR capacity was known to be inadequate even for their own internal use ... and the Deutsche Reichsbahn had inadequate oil tanker cars even for supplying, oh, the East Front.

As for the Caucasus the single German Oil Unit managed to restore, IIRC, exactly one well in the Caucasus and extract something like 200 bbl per day. Even if they managed more they didn't have enough POL Tank Cars to transport a significant quantity back to Germany by rail!

Across the Black Sea? Limited Soviet BS Port capacity (and no specialist oil terminals, IIRC) and effectly no German or Romanian or Bulgrian tanker capacity on the BS. Worse, IIRC it was only in 1944 that the Germans actually emplaced a pipeline head of limited capacity way upstream on the Danube, and the extant tank barge capacity on the river was, in any case, inadequate.

So, no oil from the Middle East/Syria or the Caucasus even if they managed to capture them, not in even the medium term.

[chuckdyke]

There is no oil in the middle east and there is no oil in the Caucasus. Why do people think WW2 was fought over? The Brits and the Germans fought each other in North Africa because they loved the warmer weather. 

[FancyCat]

57 minutes ago, paxromana said:

So, no oil from the Middle East/Syria or the Caucasus even if they managed to capture them, not in even the medium term.

Tbf even tho that we think it was unrealistic and foolish, does not mean the Germans found the same conclusions, as you note, the German attempt to extract oil from the Caucasus was a failure, but it was a main reason for the Germans in for pushing for the Caucasus. 

[chuckdyke]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Tbf even tho that we think it was unrealistic and foolish, does not mean the Germans found the same conclusions, as you note, the German attempt to extract oil from the Caucasus was a failure, but it was a main reason for the Germans in for pushing for the Caucasus. 

Just a cut from encyclopedia Britannica 

 

[hundtand]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

There is no oil in the middle east and there is no oil in the Caucasus. Why do people think WW2 was fought over? The Brits and the Germans fought each other in North Africa because they loved the warmer weather. 

Never underestimate how a change in scenery, however brief, can have a positive impact on your day to day

[Bulletpoint]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-66599774

Kremlin silent as Wagner boss Prigozhin 'killed in plane crash'

• Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led a failed mutiny against Vladimir Putin, was on a plane that crashed in western Russia, say aviation officials
• Authorities say all 10 people on board were killed after the private aircraft came down near the village of Kuzhenkino
• They also say the passengers included Prigozhin, who is the head of mercenary group Wagner, and his right-hand man Dmitry Utkin.

 

Alleged video of the crash shows a smouldering plane falling down vertically. Not what you'd expect from a normal crash. More like a plane blown up in the air, either by a bomb aboard, or by a missile.

Video here:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66601553

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Seedorf81]

6 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Same reason Rommel was in Afrika in WW2 it was oil nowadays more raw materials than we can poke a stick at. Regimes where everybody is corrupt from the Bishop to the Ice-cream seller. Lovely area for the Russians to do business.

Ehm, first and main reason why the Africa-corps was sent, was Hitler helping his Buddy Benito, who got himself into very embarrassing trouble against a much smaller British contingent.

Hitler was a horrifying beast, but he was sometimes strangely loyal. He always supported Mussolini, even if it cost him dearly. And if Hitler sacked people (Generals, mostly) he took care of them with money and houses and other generous gifts, even if they had performed abysmal (in his eyes).

And nobody even remotely expected that Rommel would be able to get to Egypt.

So oil was not the reason.

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Oh yeah, fantastic, get the US to ramp up weapons production, get the US an ally with tons of experience with cheapo drones land and sea…

Winnie the Flu isn’t the brightest bear on the block, but I don’t think any of this was anticipated, and the CCP is now trying to figure out how to balance their desire to be a super power with the desire to not be associated with Russia and with their brewing economic and demographic issues. Being saddled with Russia in a forever war with the west, which by the way has ramped up production of weapons that are cheap and fast and effective, and iterating hard, and might provide a way to take out China’s ships in the South China Sea and go through their air defenses???

I can’t believe China would of its own free will give the US a laboratory on how to negate both ships and missiles and missile defences in a restricted body of water (and with allies who can make the requisite munitions on a budget). They can’t be that dumb, can they?

China wants to secure undisputed hegemony over all of the former USSR east of the Urals (i.e. Asian Russia and the Stans). I would too, if I were Chinese btw. The resources of these lands are infinitely more valuable than the South China sea floor, and their de facto control by China would enhance its (resumed) status as an economic superpower.

Even anticommunist Chinese patriots view Russian control of these lands and peoples as yet another unfortunate and accident accident of history, which they generally blame on the Chinese Empire being undermined by perfidious European colonialist incursion starting in the mid 1700s. The reality though is that the Qing / Manchu dynasty, being preoccupied with its own power struggles within China plus the deeply conservative nature of Confucianism, bears most of the blame for its "century (or two) of humiliation". However, as with most of history the picture is mixed. The Western capitalist/colonial powers were indeed predatory, but also innovative (see article) in a way that Chinese civilization simply could not match at that time (Chinese people absolutely could, but mostly had to get out of China!).

Anyhoo, tying it all back together, regardless of who is in charge in Moscow, Russia must eventually realign in some way with Europe (and presumably the Anglosphere). The only alternative for them (and the West) is to accept Chinese suzerainty over all these lands, on terms more or less dictated by Beijing.* 

I am talking about the rest of this century, not the next decade; the Russians can clearly live in denial for some time.

* Unless of course Xi does something stupid that sets China back a century again.

Edited August 24, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Kraft]

4 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Winnie the Flu isn’t the brightest bear on the block, but I don’t think any of this was anticipated, and the CCP is now trying to figure out how to balance their desire to be a super power with the desire to not be associated with Russia and with their brewing economic and demographic issues.

What was not anticipated is the war going so horribly wrong for Russia. 

In one of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges episodes they discussed how to model the risk of military conflict. One example was Chinas trade, because Winnie started massively importing and stockpiling scarce resources&goods that would be affected by the war ~6 months before Russians crossed the border in force

Edited August 24, 2023 by Kraft

[Joe982]

I forecast that Putin will blame Ukraine for the aircraft crash.

.

[Haiduk]

WOW ! 

UKR GUR forces has landed on Tarkhankut cape in Crimea and reportedly destroyed long-range radars of 3rd radiotechnical regiment of Air-Space Forces near Mayak village. About this told press-secreter of GUR Andriy Yusov. Ukr forces used boats and aviation for support. In present time clashes are continuing

 

Local Russian TG claims "10 UKR diversants on two boats approached to camping of tourists and shelled it with firearms, then retreated. Tourists heard sounds of presumably RPG shooting at 3:50 of morning and came out to see what's going on"

Russian milblogger writes:

Nobody was eliminated. UKR diversion group withdrew without losses. 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Seedorf81]

19 minutes ago, Joe982 said:

I forecast that Putin will blame Ukraine for the aircraft crash.

.

If I were Ukrainian intelligence I would make up a story about some secret action, or weapon, that killed Prig and his mates. Let that leak out, and then having it denied by some higher up guy. Just to make even every "loyal to Putin"-Russian think twice about taking a plane.

Doesn't matter if it is a cockamamy story, just annoy and confuse the Russians.

[Seedorf81]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

WOW ! 

UKR GUR forces has landed on Tarkhankut cape in Crimea and reportedly destroyed long-range radars of 3rd radiotechnical regiment of Air-Space Forces near Mayak village. About this told press-secreter of GUR Andriy Yusov. Ukr forces used boats and aviation for support. In present time clashes are continuing

 

More than 100 miles undetected? WOW, indeed.

[TheVulture]

6 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

More than 100 miles undetected? WOW, indeed.

Wot coastal defence doing?

Sounds like a successful special forces raid.  It's been a bad news week for Russia on all fronts.

[Beleg85]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

In present time clashes are continuing

If true, very interesting harassment. Also it is very strange to inform about special operation that is ongoing...maybe UA want Russians to divert some troops to guard Crimea beaches?

[Seedorf81]

2 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Wot coastal defence doing?

Sounds like a successful special forces raid.  It's been a bad news week for Russia on all fronts.

Well, if Ukraine had a submarine (which they do not, as far as I know), and that number of 10 attackers is correct, I can imagine they surprised the Russians.

But if they came in boats, it is almost as humiliating as the Moskva-sinking. More poststamps in the making!

[Haiduk]

Tarkhankut cape - place of the raid. In the foreground the same camping, meant in Russian TG. Radar platoon baracks is in area of lighthouse on background. Radar site is about 2 km from lighthouse - somewhere in upper left corner of the photo.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Offshoot]

Quote

More than 100 miles undetected? WOW, indeed.

Might have something to do with sea babies - https://kyivindependent.com/southern-command-russia-disperses-ships-in-fear-of-ukrainian-strikes/

Quote

"Humeniuk noted growing anxiety among Russian naval forces regarding Ukraine's "Sea Baby" surface drones. Russian military vessels are reportedly trying to hide behind the areas used by civilian ships, which were intentionally delineated to create an artificial buffer zone."

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Offshoot

[paxromana]

4 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

There is no oil in the middle east and there is no oil in the Caucasus. Why do people think WW2 was fought over? The Brits and the Germans fought each other in North Africa because they loved the warmer weather. 

The DAK was in North Africa because the Italians invaded Egypt ... and were trounced by the Brits.

The Italians invaded because they were at war with the Allies and wanted some glory they hadn't gained in their faffed invasion of souithern France ... and, of course, because they wanted to retain their colony of Abyssinia (Ethiopia) which could only be accessed through the Suez Cabal or the Straits of Gibraltar (and the latter even Musso probably figured wasn't a realistic aim). It had nothing to do with oil.

The DAK was committed so Italy wouldn't be defeated ... so rthe Vicy colonies in NA wouldn't be threatened, secondarily. Nothing to do with oil.

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

Ehm, first and main reason why the Africa-corps was sent, was Hitler helping his Buddy Benito, who got himself into very embarrassing trouble against a much smaller British contingent.

Hitler was a horrifying beast, but he was sometimes strangely loyal. He always supported Mussolini, even if it cost him dearly. And if Hitler sacked people (Generals, mostly) he took care of them with money and houses and other generous gifts, even if they had performed abysmal (in his eyes).

And nobody even remotely expected that Rommel would be able to get to Egypt.

So oil was not the reason.

Indeed, Rommel repeatedly disobeyed orders to not attempt to attack Egypt and to not outrun the abysmally poor supply lines ... but he suffered from 'victory disease' and even infected Hitler to a degree.

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

maybe UA want Russians to divert some troops to guard Crimea beaches?

I think, rather to eliminate early warning assets, to increase effectiveness of strikes. Russians had a time to target and intercept almost all strike drones and S-200 missiles, entering to Crimea from NW and N. Maybe this is first phase of complex attack on Kerch bridge and important military infrastructure

[chuckdyke]

46 minutes ago, paxromana said:

The DAK was in North Africa because the Italians invaded Egypt ... and were trounced by the Brits.

The Italians invaded because they were at war with the Allies and wanted some glory they hadn't gained in their faffed invasion of souithern France ... and, of course, because they wanted to retain their colony of Abyssinia (Ethiopia) which could only be accessed through the Suez Cabal or the Straits of Gibraltar (and the latter even Musso probably figured wasn't a realistic aim). It had nothing to do with oil.

The DAK was committed so Italy wouldn't be defeated ... so rthe Vicy colonies in NA wouldn't be threatened, secondarily. Nothing to do with oil.

Yes and Santa Clauss is real.