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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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5 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Autonomous flying is way easier than autonomous flying- we already have this, and it used every day- autopilot. Obviously there is reliance on GPS and INS, but it’s way different than being on a road and having to worry about obstacles and traffic. If GPS is jammed, poverty INS and simple airspeed calculations and a compass will get you close to where you need to go- especially if you fly higher up on a clear day, or just in straight line. And then simple image recognition to look for tarmac/flying vehicles. If you can get to the target 80% of the time, that’s great. No AI needed.

If you can’t make it to an airflield, ditch on an empty road and make a hole it in it and hope someone gets a flat tire.

In terms of target selection, if Russia has kids at a military airport in a war, I don’t think anybody is going to complain if they get killed. Maybe amnesty, but they have shown their true colors of course.

Detecting helicopters vs decoys, if you have an even halfway decent onboard camera and the equivalent of an iphone CPU, that’s plenty of horsepower to do image recognition. You don’t need an LLM or deep learning or anything crazy. Again, no AI needed. Same goes for detecting an airfield.

And the drones would leave with targeting data from satellites that would be no more than a day old. Decoys and tents and such would have to be maintained and move around to work. If one drone and ten got a helicopter it would be well worth it. Ukraine makes every reasonable effort to avoid hitting civilians, but they are also fighting like they are in an existential war, because they are. Low probability targeting accidents are are just one more risk. It is why they can frequently get artillery fire on high priority targets in five minutes. Things get double checked once not seven times. 

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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Damaged by UKR drone SIG tanker. You can see a hole in the hull

 

Ah ha! I just determined the cause of all those “careless smoking incidents.” The “NO SMOKING”signs are in English, not Russian!

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17 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

F3BuGEIaoAAM5hv-e1691564744439-2.jpg

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russians-delivered-the-olenegorsky-gornyak-landing-ship-to-the-dry-dock/

Welp,  she's out for a bit. 

Bets on when she returns to work? 

6 months? 

And this too:

 

It depends on how much internal damage the explosion and subsequent flooding caused.  Patching the outer hull itself shouldn't take that long, especially given Russia's tendency to prioritize speed over quality.

Steve

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2 hours ago, sburke said:

I think it is worth Ukraine's time to target expensive and critical dual purpose infrastructure within Russia.  Russia needs as much additional pressure on its economy as can be had.  Also, Russia should have to divert resources towards defending its cities just like it's obligating Ukraine to do.

Article in the Moscow Times' reporting of Russian emergency services' report for 2022:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/10/record-number-of-explosions-rock-russia-in-2022-vyorstka-a82106

Human casualty rate 20x higher than any previous year over the last decade.  55 out of 83 explosions were documented to have been caused by explosives of some sort.

Steve

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Kinzhal strike on Kyiv. I heard four explosions, looks like all out of the city. There were reports about four MiG-31K taking off, probably on Kyiv were launched two missiles, allegedly two more have flown to Khmelnytskyi oblast - I tnink, Starokostiantyniv airfield again

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Ukr troops near the entrance to Robotyne. Unknown it's northern or southern entrance. 

Russian milblogger Pegov wrote Ukr troops expanded zone of control between Robotyne and Verbove on 6 km along frontline and slightly in the depth. Russian troops were forced "to align frontline"

image.thumb.png.995775741c8a5c4feaa468c7d3c361d9.png

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10 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Autonomous flying is way easier than autonomous flying- we already have this, and it used every day- autopilot. Obviously there is reliance on GPS and INS, but it’s way different than being on a road and having to worry about obstacles and traffic. If GPS is jammed, poverty INS and simple airspeed calculations and a compass will get you close to where you need to go- especially if you fly higher up on a clear day, or just in straight line. And then simple image recognition to look for tarmac/flying vehicles. If you can get to the target 80% of the time, that’s great. No AI needed.

If you can’t make it to an airflield, ditch on an empty road and make a hole it in it and hope someone gets a flat tire.

In terms of target selection, if Russia has kids at a military airport in a war, I don’t think anybody is going to complain if they get killed. Maybe amnesty, but they have shown their true colors of course.

Detecting helicopters vs decoys, if you have an even halfway decent onboard camera and the equivalent of an iphone CPU, that’s plenty of horsepower to do image recognition. You don’t need an LLM or deep learning or anything crazy. Again, no AI needed. Same goes for detecting an airfield.

I'm still working in autonomous driving. Our safety experts once talked in detail about the difference between flying on autopilot and autonomous driving - because they get that comment every time: We have had autonomous flying for decades, so how hard can it be? The answer was (iirc) something like a) aerospace industry and flying itself is highly regulated, i.e. every part is normed and certified and even then has double redundancy. Plus you can pretty well predict what someone is going to do in a certain situation. b) The air is 3D and much less crowded than roads. c) We don't trust autopilots. Which is why there isn't just one but two highly trained pilots on board who constantly monitor the system and are ready to take over at any time.

This is in contrast to autonomous driving where we want a huge variety cars interacting with other cars and all sorts of different traffic participants who may or may not be restricted by rules in a dense and crowded environment - without relying on a trained operator who can take over if necessary.

Back to drones: I guess the difficulty here is in actually reaching the target not identifying it. Without relying on GPS you have to either navigate using landmarks or have inertial sensors. Both doable but the former is non trivial and the letter expensive, I think?

That said, the main difference is probably in the fact that this is a war. You don't have to guarantee that your drone crashes only once in a billion kilometers. If nine out of ten reach their target that's fine. And then in war people die, so collateral damage is probably more accepted than in traffic. On the other hand, media and all sorts of other parties are just waiting for autonomous machines killing humans and the inevitable incident where such a device hits a bus full of children is going to spark am interesting discussion.

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