How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

Clearly an ammo plant/dump, the bottom video shows an artillery shell that landed just short of that Lada.

[Battlefront.com]

12 hours ago, danfrodo said:

And looks like big RU mobilization coming -- that could really be a disaster for UKR, so would force them to try to punch through more quickly & w more casualties than they'd otherwise like.  Hopefully a big mobilization would cause serious protests & civil disobedience -- but yes, that is just wishful thinking as nothing ever seems to quell the russian spirit for violent conquest and control.

Russia pushing tens of thousands of mobiks to the front with no training would certainly change the dynamic a bit, but I don't think I would call it a "disaster".  I also don't think it will be as effective as it was last year.

First off, if Russia does a mobilization again this year it will be, like last year, at the last minute.  Which means Ukraine will have already broken through Russian defenses in a meaningful way or have worn down Russian forces so much that a large scale breakthrough is all but certain.  In other words, the battle will most likely already be decided on the battlefield before Putin makes a mobilization decision in the Kremlin.

Second, last year the flood of untrained mobiks were used in conjunction with functional military units which possessed significant supporting arms, especially artillery.  To the extent they were effective had more to do with the supporting arms than with their bodies.  We are already seeing that in some cases Ukraine has local superiority of supporting arms due to Ukraine's systematic targeting of Russia's artillery, EW, C2, supplies, etc. for the last 1.5 years (especially the last few months). 

The likely net result is that mobiks will come to the fight too late to make even an operational difference and, once there, won't be as effective as they were in limiting the further the loss of territory.  No doubt it would be easier for Ukraine to breakthrough without another general Russian mobilization, but I just don't see it posing a large threat to Ukraine's progress.

 

Looking at the much bigger picture, Ukraine knows that this war not only has to be won but won in a way that reduces the chances of Russia coming back around for Round 3 any time soon.  Slaughtering tens of thousands of untrained mobiks at comparatively little cost to Ukraine's manpower will be helpful.  Russia is already showing massive strain on workforce and military aged males regardless of whether Putin's regime faces an existential backlash from another mobilization.  Whatever happens with this war, the less a future Russia has to work with for a new war is a good thing for Ukraine.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Clearly an ammo plant/dump, the bottom video shows an artillery shell that landed just short of that Lada.

Yup.  Here's what Wikipedia has to say about the company:

Quote

Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical Plant is a company based in Sergiyev Posad, Moscow Oblast, Russia. It is part of Shvabe Holding of Rostec. The Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical Plant is a producer of pyrotechnics and precision optical equipment for the military, such as active infrared night vision devices and binoculars.

It seems the factory's "fireworks" cover story is now, literally, blown

Wikipedia reminds us this is now the second time it's had a serious smoking problem.  June 2022 it had a fire as well.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

16 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

A journalist talks with members of the Ukrainian  47th brigade. Subtitles work.

 

That was worth watching.  A couple of things stood out:

1.  One of the fire control soldiers said he can't imagine how to fight a war without drones.  If that doesn't say how important drones have become, I don't know what else can!

2.  The senior officer stated that they can feel that the Russian positions are weakening.  When asked why, he stated that when the counter offensive first started they were the ones being pounded (we know this to be true), but now they are conducting operations with relative quiet in the rear.

3.  The Leopard was parked next to a very, very busy road.  We don't know how far from the front, but not likely all that far.  The daytime traffic indicates that they don't have too much fear of Russian interdiction, which jibes with the point above.

4.  The tankers operate mostly at night.  The crew even installed a night vision camera to the rear because the Leopard only comes with a day vision camera standard.  I hope someone at Rheinmetall made some notes about this, because a night vision backup camera should be standard.

5.  The tracks have lost almost all of their rubber pads.  This isn't great for road travel, nor is it really good for off road either.  Hopefully they can get their tracks replaced soon.  I don't know what the average lifetime is for this type of track (Abrams uses the same system so maybe can comment), and we don't know how much wear was on it before Ukraine got it, but whatever it is it has been exceeded.

Steve

[Maciej Zwolinski]

38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

t seems the factory's "fireworks" cover story is now, literally, blown

Wikipedia reminds us this is now the second time it's had a serious smoking problem.  June 2022 it had a fire as well.

There was a popular joke during communism about a worker in a sewing machine factory, who was stealing parts from work and bringing them home to build a sewing machine for himself. Except he could not, because every time he tried to put the parts together he came up with a machine gun.

It was funny because it was true -there is a factory in Radom where they used to manufacture literally both weapons and sewing machines

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Who in their right mind manufactures ammunition at the same plant that is making precision optics? What the actual fudge?!

The Russian strategic reserves of stupidity are not at any risk of running out, it seems.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I love those Darth Putin posts!

That is quite the impressive mushroom cloud.  From an optics factory?  I wonder what sort of chemicals might an optics factory have that would produce such an explosive effect?  That is one heck-of-an explosion, complete with materials being lifted several hundred meters (look to the right side).

Is this a smoking accident or did Ukraine visit Moscow with some drones?

Steve

there are several videos near that factory that show 120mm shells casually lying around, apparently getting thrown away by the explosion

[Kinophile]

7 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think this woman posts disinformation generally.. If I remember, she was also the one spreading rumours of Russians using chemical weapons recently?

In this case, no other news outlet is saying anything about Russia notifying the UN about imposing martial law.

The only thing I could find is this article from TASS, saying "Amendments are expected to be made to Article 22 of the Law on Martial Law and Article 37 of the Law on the State of Emergency. The content of the amendments has not yet been published, but it may be related to the withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the Council of Europe."

https://tass.ru/politika/18467253

 

So not much to go by at the moment.

She's a proper supporter,  I dont think I'd classify her as disinformation (well not Russian).  She can be excitable and post without a lot of reference or proof.

Hence my" hmmmmm".

[Kinophile]

The plot twists in the story of Wagner are just hilariously bad writing... 

 

Edited August 9, 2023 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Who in their right mind manufactures ammunition at the same plant that is making precision optics? What the actual fudge?!

The Russian strategic reserves of stupidity are not at any risk of running out, it seems.

Could Ukraine be so lucky/good that this was the final assembly plant for Krasnopol laser guided 152?

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

She's a proper supporter,  I dont think I'd classify her as disinformation (well not Russian).  She can be excitable and post without a lot of reference or proof.

Hence my" hmmmmm".

I know she is on Ukraine's side, but that doesn't mean what she's saying is necessarily true. Disinformation can come from anywhere...

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/06/ukraine-special-forces-alpha-counteroffensive/

Last year, there were opportunities to creep into Russian-occupied territory at night to take out enemy targets. Now, with vast minefields and other fortified Russian defenses stalling Ukraine’s sweeping counteroffensive, an uncrewed aerial vehicle armed with explosives does that during daylight instead.

 

Apologies if this is a double post, a very interesting article. 

[holoween]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

4.  The tankers operate mostly at night.  The crew even installed a night vision camera to the rear because the Leopard only comes with a day vision camera standard.  I hope someone at Rheinmetall made some notes about this, because a night vision backup camera should be standard.

From a7 on a camera block with thermal, day and night cameras is standard front and rear of the tank. Also has image overlay for thermal with day/night

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

5.  The tracks have lost almost all of their rubber pads.  This isn't great for road travel, nor is it really good for off road either.  Hopefully they can get their tracks replaced soon.  I don't know what the average lifetime is for this type of track (Abrams uses the same system so maybe can comment), and we don't know how much wear was on it before Ukraine got it, but whatever it is it has been exceeded.

They are at the edge of replacing but the tracks work just fine without rubber and generally actually have more grip.

[Teufel]

15 hours ago, Kinophile said:

As a former Architect I second @JonS' note - Engineers are unsexy.

Take this as deeply insulting good Sir! Much more so than dissing by ignoring, engineers are people too!

Ok, maybe you are right! Garbagemen are probably more successful than most engineers on Tinder. Particularly with this type of profile content, engineering humor. Ha! Ha! Funny!

Ok, nobody likes a smart ***! I get that…

Anyhow, interesting read for anyone who might care for some smart *** opinions.

Edit: Damn it! Can’t even post relevant info, Danfrodo already beat me to the punch. Will see myself out!

Edit 2: On the way out, some interesting updates about command posts familiarizing themselves with work of fellow A&D engineers.

https://babel.ua/en/news/97178-the-defense-forces-hit-the-command-post-of-the-russian-army-in-nova-kakhovka

 

Edited August 9, 2023 by Teufel

[dan/california]

A completely different bit of the Russian Military industrial complex is on fire as well. Putin i just going to have to take the morale hit and ban smoking throughout the Russian armed forces.

[Ultradave]

16 hours ago, Kinophile said:

As a former Architect I second @JonS' note - Engineers are unsexy.

Whoa, there buddy.

Both my wife and I are lifelong runners. She once described my legs to someone else as dangerously sexy. The same can be said of her. Even today at age 68, she has the legs of a 30 year old. (I'm 66 and we both still run). Last week I was halfway through a 5 mile run, passed a lady on the sidewalk, as I moved out into the street to pass her (I don't like brushing past people as they seldom here you coming and you can scare them half to death by saying "On your left"). Got about 50 feet past her, hopped back on the sidewalk, and she yells out "Great legs!!!"  

Still got it. 

So, engineers CAN be sexy. Even retired ones.

Funny thing was I was right near my turnaround point so I got to run back past her face-to-face this time. She did not seem embarrassed in the least, just smiled and waved. 

Dave

PS - Our first date was a lunchtime run. We worked at adjacent companies. I ran to her front gate, we went for a nice run down by Long Island Sound, and chatted a lot along the way. Very public, so very safe. 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Teufel said:

 engineering humor. Ha! Ha! Funny!

Engineers: *also* bad at graphic design

Edited August 9, 2023 by JonS

[Billy Ringo]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/china-now-sells-fewer-goods-to-the-us-than-mexico-or-canada-do/ar-AA1eXT0N?rc=1&ocid=socialshare&cvid=9d99c6d2b63c446881a696f3081e2664&ei=20

Chinese imports to the US down 25% YTD since last year.  That's a big shift, more pressure on the Chinese government, less US dependence on China, and more diversity in the US supply chain. 

 

[poesel]

On 8/6/2023 at 2:30 AM, cesmonkey said:

 

Update to this: pundit said that Germany will drag her feet as long as the US won't supply ATACMS. Basically the same as with the Leopards - no cats without Abrams (at least promised at the time).

I hope that this time the necessary preparations have already been done and Taurus could be delivered ASAP when and if the decision will be made.

Btw. I retract my notion about the usefulness of the missile. Its abilities seem to be on par with SS/SCALP.

[kevinkin]

17 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Ironically, good engineering is deeply sexy to Architects.

A good friend on mine from work noted that at RIP (Rensselaer) future architects always fell asleep in natural science classes. I noted they were probably "out on the town" all night compared to science and engineering majors. She said: good point. She dated one. 

[JonS]

Well, that's a bull**** thing for a general to say. One weapon system is not going to make Crimea untenable.

[Teufel]

35 minutes ago, JonS said:

Well, that's a bull**** thing for a general to say. One weapon system is not going to make Crimea untenable.

Sorry for the lousy graphic design, as evident engineers suck at such complex tasks.

PS! Sorry buddy, couldn’t help it when you set it up like that. Say it with brotherly love.

Edited August 9, 2023 by Teufel

[JonS]

Ha. Fair point.

But let me counter by asking you this: is this thread for analysis, or do we just accept every claim of chemical weapon usage, mass mobilisation, and wunderwaffen at face value and run with that?

If it's the latter, then cool. War's over tomorrow because Gen Hodges said so. Well done chaps. Tea and medals all round.

[Teufel]

Source is not the most credible but interesting nevertheless to proactively listen.

We are looking at figures of recorded explosions in the past 10 years (top) and number of victims (bottom). In summary, during 2022 there were 83 explosions recorded in which 55 people died and 10,647 were injured. Last year, according to the Russian ministry’s numbers, residential buildings and warehouses exploded, and the explosion on the Crimean bridge was also included in the statistics. The most common cause of explosions in 2022 is an explosive object (bomb, rocket, mine, grenade) - 55 out of 83.

The increase in the number of explosions in 2022 is directly related to hostilities in Ukraine.

In the last ten years in Russia, despite the fact that there were terrorist attacks and that residential buildings were destroyed due to gas leaks, the number of explosions per year did not exceed 20, and the number of victims amounted to hundreds, not thousands.

So it seems if anybody in Russia has failed to connect the SMO with explosions occurring in Russia. Well, then this might help to connect such dots, the SMO is coming home.

[chris talpas]

Does mobilization buy Putin time however?
Can he be trying to run out the clock hoping for Trump being the disruptor and pressuring Republicans to drop support for Ukraine?