How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Teufel]

Maybe already posted  

[Carolus]

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/69/Barrage_balloon_fsac_1a35100.jpg

 

Dumb question, but can barrage balloons help against things like Shahed drones? That only follow a programmed path and can't fly very high?

Not for troops, obviously, but cities or facilities far behind the front. To reduce the need for AA coverage.

 

Edited July 27, 2023 by Carolus

[_Morpheus_]

Daily business of the Ukrainian tank crew near the Bakhmut.
No subtitles, but tank run on the mine and will be repaired in 2 days 

 

Edited July 27, 2023 by _Morpheus_

[Teufel]

14 hours ago, Haiduk said:

"Kraken" again on the warpath. I've read, this unit got own tank detachment. But in this time their drone targeted two Russian "Grads". Alas, either they transmitted not enough accurate coordinates, or HIMARS crew made some error, but both missiles hit enough far aside launchers. BTW both Grads at least got damages and one driver was wounded or killed. 

  

 

Or shotgun blast delivered by HIMARS?

Edited July 27, 2023 by Teufel

[Haiduk]

AA missile was launched at UKR helicopter, but it locked on flares of other chopper. UKR soldiers discuss episode on background

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Teufel said:

 

This is interesting for two reasons.  First, it is the usual drivel from propagandists about the glorious defeats of their brave troops, even though what they just lost means nothing positive for Ukraine.  This pattern just underscores, to me, how badly things are going on all fronts.  When bullies brag about their defeats, things can't be going well.  Inventing a massive Ukrainian defeat that didn't happen (the 100 vehicle nonsense) is more evidence of that.

The second thing, though, is the continued complaints by Khodakovsky about how worn out their units are.  Spending time complaining about not getting credit for their actions and being used up by the Russian MoD seems to be an outlet for frustrations over just how bad things are at the front that does not directly violate the recent crackdown on defeatism.  "Things are tough and we are brave, but we don't get enough credit for Mariupol" doesn't seem to me very bright and cheery!

As a reminder to all, Khodakovsky has been consistently similar to Girkin in his comments, though certainly more propagandist about the DPR's military performance.

Steve

[Teufel]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is interesting for two reasons.  First, it is the usual drivel from propagandists about the glorious defeats of their brave troops, even though what they just lost means nothing positive for Ukraine.  This pattern just underscores, to me, how badly things are going on all fronts.  When bullies brag about their defeats, things can't be going well.  Inventing a massive Ukrainian defeat that didn't happen (the 100 vehicle nonsense) is more evidence of that.

The second thing, though, is the continued complaints by Khodakovsky about how worn out their units are.  Spending time complaining about not getting credit for their actions and being used up by the Russian MoD seems to be an outlet for frustrations over just how bad things are at the front that does not directly violate the recent crackdown on defeatism.  "Things are tough and we are brave, but we don't get enough credit for Mariupol" doesn't seem to me very bright and cheery!

As a reminder to all, Khodakovsky has been consistently similar to Girkin in his comments, though certainly more propagandist about the DPR's military performance.

Steve

Now conflicting info about presence of DPR in this village.

 

[Teufel]

Last one for today!

CV90 being hit from really close range out of the tree line as it approaches. Second recorded CV90 being hit, none confirmed destroyed from these videos. Sources with direct involvement in maintaining these in Poland tell of vehicles hitting mines just days after arriving in Ukraine.

In other words the 21st “Swedish” brigade was committed upon arrival and later pulled. Redeployed further north per geolocation from first video of CV90 being tracked and hit closer to forests south of Kreminna. Where the 40mm Bofors really comes into it’s own. Forest harvester on tracks and probably involved in halting Russian advances in that direction.

Anybody interested in details of ID these vehicles should look for the “beak”/lip in front that looks like narrow raised plow. Second characteristic unique to the C-series is the storage box on the upper left hand side seen directly from behind. Difficult on this video filmed from the right hand side but as per above, mechanics would know their vehicles.

 

Edited July 27, 2023 by Teufel

[Seedorf81]

4 hours ago, Carolus said:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/69/Barrage_balloon_fsac_1a35100.jpg

 

Dumb question, but can barrage balloons help against things like Shahed drones? That only follow a programmed path and can't fly very high?

Not for troops, obviously, but cities or facilities far behind the front. To reduce the need for AA coverage.

 

Believe it or not, like so many things,  this was already discussed.(Page 1615 first mention of barrage balloons.)

I for one thought there would be more use of balloons and/or netting, but neither side seems to use any barrage-balloons, it seems.

[kevinkin]

NYT: 

Main thrust of Ukraine’s offensive may be underway, US officials say

After holding back many units, Ukraine is now committing them, the officials said, but it remained unclear whether a full-scale assault was taking place.

Well that is as clear as mud. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive.html

“This is the big test,” said one senior official.

Administration officials and analysts said it might be only a matter of days to assess whether the attacks might be successful. “It will be clear soon whether this attack will allow Ukraine to change the current dynamic,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The United States and other Western allies have trained about 63,000 Ukrainian troops, according to the Pentagon, and have supplied more than 150 modern battle tanks, a much larger number of older tanks, hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles and thousands of other armored vehicles. All of those figures continue to rise, and much of that manpower and gear had been held in reserve until now, as Ukrainian forces fought to find — or create — a strategic vulnerability they could exploit. The American officials said most of the remaining reserves were now being committed.

Not sure what to make of the Times reporting. Are we being set up for a major let down? Why would the western media signal that this is the main effort before it was somewhat successful? At the very least, close attention to the news the next week will be important. 

Another gloomy report:

https://news.yahoo.com/treacherous-forest-fight-threatens-hellish-083134685.html

Since the beginning of the counteroffensive on June 8, Ukrainian forces have recaptured about 300 miles of its territory, pushing their way through Russian mine fields and through brutal battles. If they were better equipped, they could have done even better, Dubina said,

“Remote observation video equipment, which costs around $15, could have replaced four soldiers we need to hold the surveillance positions during 24 hours on the front,” Dubina said. “To win this war we need to save all the lives of our soldiers. We could only do it by equipping our forces with more drones and technology. But we were waiting for months and months for the ammunition, until our commanders basically screamed for help—we lost time.”

Michael Bociurkiw, a senior fellow of the Atlantic Council, shared similar concerns about ammunition.

“Russian forces have poor morale and are poorly equipped, but the strategy they are using is unfortunately the gap in time to supply the ammunition. Given the situation Ukraine might begin to strike long-ranged missiles—whether the West likes it or not—at key military targets within Russian-occupied territory,” he told The Daily Beast, adding: “It is going to escalate.”

Edited July 27, 2023 by kevinkin

[cesmonkey]

 

[kevinkin]

Others picking up the NYT reports:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-main-thrust-of-counteroffensive-has-begun-report-states

[paxromana]

23 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Believe it or not, like so many things,  this was already discussed.(Page 1615 first mention of barrage balloons.)

I for one thought there would be more use of balloons and/or netting, but neither side seems to use any barrage-balloons, it seems.

AIUI from somewhere I read long ago Barrage Ballon units required some pretty specialised skills for the personnel ... in WW2 there were presumably still guys from WW1 who could pass them on and the specialised infrastructure for Balloons still existed at least in Western Europe ... who would train such units these days and where would the specialised infrastructure come from? Heck, where would the designs come from.

Then, of course, there's the problem of size. Sure, they don't require Graf Zeppelin or Hindenberg size sheds to build in and they don't have internal framework, but sewing/welding such large gas bags would require some fairly specialised facilities ... I mean, how many Blimps can Goodyear build per year for example?

Edited July 27, 2023 by paxromana

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, paxromana said:

AIUI from somewhere I read long ago Barrage Ballon units required some pretty specialised skills for the personnel ... in WW2 there were presumably still guys from WW1 who could pass them on and the specialised infrastructure for Balloons still existed at least in Western Europe ... who would train such units these days and where would the specialised infrastructure come from? Heck, where would the designs come from.

Then, of course, there's the problem of size. Sure, they don't require Graf Zeppelin or Hindenberg size sheds to build in and they don't have internal framework, but sewing/welding such large gas bags would require some fairly specialised gacilities ... I mean, how many Blimps casn Goodyear build per year for example?

Maybe we just try and capture the ones China keeps floating by and giving those to the UA. 

[Astrophel]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Not sure what to make of the Times reporting. Are we being set up for a major let down? Why would the western media signal that this is the main effort before it was somewhat successful? At the very least, close attention to the news the next week will be important. 

Weird remark.  It sounds like something a russian might say.  In the West there are armies of Public Relations specialists attempting to appeal to lazy journalists with pre-cooked narratives.  There are editors who like to serve their subscribers with the type of story they are paying to read.  However, there is no "setting up" of stories in the way the russian media operates.  If you have ever worked close to western media - and I have - you would know that news value trumps everything.  If the Ukrainians were losing in the way russian trolls are trying to sell we would know about it from western media - there is no conspiracy.

[Sojourner]

Mr. Bill goes to Moscow ?  

Russians stage plasticine protests to oppose war

"Ukrainians ... are not particularly impressed: Plasticine will not stop bombs."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66273597

[A Canadian Cat]

4 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Russians stage plasticine protests to oppose war

This kind of humorous and minor thing can gain ground and change minds. Some of it is covered in this book: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/153412252-how-to-start-a-revolution

4 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

"Ukrainians ... are not particularly impressed: Plasticine will not stop bombs."

A sentiment that is entirely understandable.

[_Morpheus_]

Interesting conversation between US Marine and 3-rd Assault Brigade 

 

[kevinkin]

47 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

Weird remark.  It sounds like something a russian might say.  In the West there are armies of Public Relations specialists attempting to appeal to lazy journalists with pre-cooked narratives.  There are editors who like to serve their subscribers with the type of story they are paying to read.  However, there is no "setting up" of stories in the way the russian media operates.  If you have ever worked close to western media - and I have - you would know that news value trumps everything.  If the Ukrainians were losing in the way russian trolls are trying to sell we would know about it from western media - there is no conspiracy.

That's why my comment was in the form of a question. I am not passing judgement on the Times or claiming a conspiracy. But the media everywhere have agendas. It's up to the reader to get as many POVs as they can. The Times report was vague and needed another edit to be more useful. I understand this is breaking news which why I mentioned we need to closely monitor the situation. I thought the main effort would be closer to the Fall so the weather might help stymie Russian counterattacks. The Times report probably caught others off guard. 

[dan/california]

Armored vehicles and artillery systems that cost millions of dollars keep getting killed by FPV drones that cost at most a couple of thousand. Most of the drones are lash ups of civilian toys and old RPG rounds. When someone gets a  production line going to build these things for military use from scratch it is going to get positively hazardous out there, and then the next generation won't really need operators for every drone. At most there will be one guy for every ten or twenty drones clicking yes when a window ask him if the object in the picture should go boom. 

Edit: And there will a helpful AI iff system telling what to do in the window beside the first one. Two seconds of consideration will constitute "man in the loop".

5 hours ago, Teufel said:

Last one for today!

CV90 being hit from really close range out of the tree line as it approaches. Second recorded CV90 being hit, none confirmed destroyed from these videos. Sources with direct involvement in maintaining these in Poland tell of vehicles hitting mines just days after arriving in Ukraine.

In other words the 21st “Swedish” brigade was committed upon arrival and later pulled. Redeployed further north per geolocation from first video of CV90 being tracked and hit closer to forests south of Kreminna. Where the 40mm Bofors really comes into it’s own. Forest harvester on tracks and probably involved in halting Russian advances in that direction.

Anybody interested in details of ID these vehicles should look for the “beak”/lip in front that looks like narrow raised plow. Second characteristic unique to the C-series is the storage box on the upper left hand side seen directly from behind. Difficult on this video filmed from the right hand side but as per above, mechanics would know their vehicles.

 

 

20 hours ago, Haiduk said:

"Kraken" again on the warpath. I've read, this unit got own tank detachment. But in this time their drone targeted two Russian "Grads". Alas, either they transmitted not enough accurate coordinates, or HIMARS crew made some error, but both missiles hit enough far aside launchers. BTW both Grads at least got damages and one driver was wounded or killed. 

  

 

Edited July 27, 2023 by dan/california

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/26/drones-ai-ukraine-war-innovation/

LVIV, Ukraine — In an open test field in rural Ukraine, a drone equipped with a bomb lost connection with its human operator after coming under attack by electronic jamming equipment — but instead of crashing to the ground, the drone accelerated toward its target and destroyed it.

 

Like I just said...

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Teufel said:

Last one for today!

CV90 being hit from really close range out of the tree line as it approaches. Second recorded CV90 being hit, none confirmed destroyed from these videos. Sources with direct involvement in maintaining these in Poland tell of vehicles hitting mines just days after arriving in Ukraine.

In other words the 21st “Swedish” brigade was committed upon arrival and later pulled. Redeployed further north per geolocation from first video of CV90 being tracked and hit closer to forests south of Kreminna. Where the 40mm Bofors really comes into it’s own. Forest harvester on tracks and probably involved in halting Russian advances in that direction.

Anybody interested in details of ID these vehicles should look for the “beak”/lip in front that looks like narrow raised plow. Second characteristic unique to the C-series is the storage box on the upper left hand side seen directly from behind. Difficult on this video filmed from the right hand side but as per above, mechanics would know their vehicles.

 

Interesting.  This was a launched weapon of some sort.  You can see it launching from the woodline and if you look carefully after you can see at least one Russian in that position.  This is VERY close range, perhaps 25m or so.  That's way too short a distance for most ATGMs to arm.

What it looks like to me is the missile traveled for only 15m or so then boosted and covered the remaining distance to impact the CV-90.  The explosion indicates either the warhead was armed or that it struck ERA (if Ukraine has stuck any on).

Curious.

Steve

[Teufel]

Anyone else heard of this before? Considering the source it’s sheer speculation. But the pledge by Germany to deliver units to Ukraine upon series production?

[Beleg85]

One of forts times in this war when we can observe situation vehicles vs. antitank ditches/"dragon's teeth". It is not the first line, though according to maps.