How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

What he said!

Edit: Which brings us to The_Capt's bit about defensive primacy.

 

Edited July 9, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

Today Ukraine launched at least three S-200 SAM missiles, converted into ersatz-ballistic. One was intercepted on approach to Kerch and fell into the sea, so Russians even closed a bridge for some time, the second missile was intercepted over Rostov-on-Don city, the third wasn't intercepted, but fell in Briansk oblast. Local authorities claimed the missiele destroyed a sawmill, no casualties

City camera filmed the falling of the missile. 

  https://twitter.com/i/status/1678088478792220674

Screenshot:

Russian TG already calimed UKR tried to hit Smolensk nuclear plant. Medvedev made a statement if Ukraine shells Smolensk NP, Russian will strike on all Ukrianian and several European nuclear plants.  

Edited July 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[poesel]

How effective is DPICM vs minefields (AT or AP)? 

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, poesel said:

How effective is DPICM vs minefields (AT or AP)? 

It isn't, there have been some studies using FAE bombs dropped from aircraft, but I don't think it worked well enough to really pursue. You need enough overpressure, for long enough to trigger the fuses, not fragmentation effects.

 

[dan/california]

 

[Haiduk]

Yesterday there were claims that UKR troops expanded own zone of control on the left bank of Dnipro - to railway bridge and almost to northern outskirt of Oleshky. 

It's hard to say how caorect this man and such claims...

... But here is indirect confirmation. UKR soldier, which now in the hospital, writes:

One more fighter from left bank of Antonivskyi bridge was admited to our hospital room.  Four days they have been smashing with all calibers, but they hold positions. Hard. But they cleaning ground meter-by meter from pidors. 

On the question about losses:

You wouldn't like total number of KIA and WIA for all time of operation on left bank, but the spirit of our wounded is still combative despite on injurring.

 

 

Edited July 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

For those without economist or Twitter, the author put some tidbits, im quoting below. Harrowing stuff. @shashj also noted something I threw in the quote box below.

Quote

My dispatch from the heart of Ukraine’s counter-offensive in Zaporizhia region. I spoke to the combat engineers who — in their own words — have become Russia’s target number one

Ukraine has switched tactics after a failed offensive south from Mala Tokmachka early on in the campaign. Now small groups of men probe forward on foot. In the open plains of Zaporizhia this is war’s most dangerous work. They are suffering the highest casualty rates of any units

The new tactics are partly a response to Russia’s serious defences — which are more onerous than expected. But it’s also because they simply don’t have enough armour to risk in doing mechanised pushes. “So we risk our men instead.”

Progress is incremental, but things are changing for better. The initial setbacks of early June made many sappers too frightened to advance. They say they are finding courage again. “Every step forward is hope,” one said. Another: “Like cockroaches, we’ll find a way through”

‘Drones equipped with heat sensors are the latest [Ukrainian] weapons. These seek out Russian mine positions by looking for heat signatures in the 30-60 minutes before sunset, when the metal mines have heated up just enough.’

 

[FancyCat]

End of the day, NATO membership secures Ukraine permanently (as permanently as one can hope) from Russian aggression. Israel-style assurances are in my opinion, not enough, to ensure post-war Ukraine has the best footing, economically, sociality, to move past the war. Now, one thing I can definitely see is Russia, knowing that Ukraine will permanently be out of Russia's ability to invade.once the war ends, will probably fight as hard as possible to ensure the war continues and hold as much land as possible.

It will be a hard line move in a sense for all sides.

Quote

 

Original tweet: EXCLUSIVE: Biden says Ukraine is not yet ready for NATO membership, saying the war with Russia must end before the alliance can consider adding Kyiv to its ranks.

Reply tweet: Biden line reflects what Ukraine itself acknowledged weeks ago. Reznikov: “We understand that we cannot be a member of Nato during the war, but we need to be sure that after the war we will be. That is the signal we want to get.”

 

Edited July 9, 2023 by FancyCat

[cesmonkey]

37 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It isn't, there have been some studies using FAE bombs dropped from aircraft, but I don't think it worked well enough to really pursue. You need enough overpressure, for long enough to trigger the fuses, not fragmentation effects.

 

In this video, at 4:18, this former UK Air Vice Marshall says that if you use enough cluster munitions, you can clear a path through a minefield.
 

 

[Haiduk]

Search groups now work on liberated territories near Bakhmut. They have found 85 remains and bodies, which left there as far as since spring and after current clashes. 82 of bodies belonged to Russians, 3 to Ukrainians. From 82 Russians many corpses of Wagner convicts - they have color wristbands to warn own medics, which could work with them, that they have dangerous disease - AIDS, tuberculosis, hepaptitis and some other - the typical "set" of jail diseases. Even after own death Russians like a zombie turned out into bio-weapon.

 

[dan/california]

23 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

In this video, at 4:18, this former UK Air Vice Marshall says that if you use enough cluster munitions, you can clear a path through a minefield.
 

 

"Enough" is doing a lot of work here. I Suspect it is slightly less impractical if the cluster munitions in question are delivered in 1000kg increment using JDAMs dropped from B-52s, 20 at a time. Of course in Ukraine could delver Jdams from B-52s this would all be over in three days. 

I would love to see it if the Air Marshall has any data about what density of bomblets is required.

 

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

It isn't, there have been some studies using FAE bombs dropped from aircraft, but I don't think it worked well enough to really pursue. You need enough overpressure, for long enough to trigger the fuses, not fragmentation effects.

 

I did find this 1979 patent for:

Surface-launched fuel-air explosive minefield clearance round
https://patents.google.com/patent/US4273048A/en

[DesertFox]

22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

using JDAMs dropped from B-52s, 20 at a time. Of course in Ukraine could delver Jdams from B-52s this would all be over in three days. 

Dunno why but that has some Operation Cobra vibes. Would love to see it 

[JonS]

56 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

if you use enough cluster munitions, you can clear a path through a minefield.

Except, of course, then you need to do a manual breaching operation over the exact same ground to clear through all the uxo you've just left lying around with no discernable pattern.

[Letter from Prague]

New Perun dropped, on a pretty topical ... topic.

 

[cesmonkey]

8 minutes ago, JonS said:

Except, of course, then you need to do a manual breaching operation over the exact same ground to clear through all the uxo you've just left lying around with no discernable pattern.

I imagine Ukraine will have an empirical answer, shortly, for whether firing DPICM makes a minefield better or worse.

[Twisk]

Maybe someone could tell me why we're talking about DPCIM like 10 pages later?

- Ukraine is not a signatory to any cluster munitions laws (or am I wrong?)

- The area that cluser munitions are being fired in are already drowning in AP/AT mines
- CLuster munitions have a failure rate but people are talking like its 50% or something

- The area is already covered in normal old UX

- Ukraine needs artillery rounds

So like whats the deal?

[DesertFox]

11 minutes ago, Twisk said:

So like whats the deal?

Dunno, but unexploded russian troops are way more dangerous to ukrainian citizens anyways.

[Vanir Ausf B]

On 7/9/2023 at 3:18 PM, Twisk said:

Maybe someone could tell me why we're talking about DPCIM like 10 pages later?

Most recent posts are regarding battlefield utility, about which there is some uncertainty.

Edited July 14, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

In this video, at 4:18, this former UK Air Vice Marshall says that if you use enough cluster munitions, you can clear a path through a minefield.
 

 

This is like going to see a Dentist about a heart problem…

This guy has zero idea what he is on about.  You could try and saturate a breach but you would wind up needing to plough a lane anyway and then prove it.  If you need to do that then signalling to the planet where you intend to breach by wasting thousands of DPICM before for you have to do a breaching operation regardless makes little sense.  

Surface laid mines maybe but then you have no idea is surface is all that is there so we are back to breaching operations.  There are no shortcuts when it comes to high density minefields - one either has to do a detailed opposed breaching op, or kill everyone who is providing overwatch and covering fire of the things. Take all those cluster munitions and drop them on Russians, far better use for them.

[Artkin]

Clueless twitter clout mentality. Just like the large twitter account that claimed there was a secret provision in the Molotov Ribbentop pact about invading the ussr. Lmao. 

[sburke]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Take all those cluster munitions and drop them on Russians, far better use for them.

This I can get behind.

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Twisk said:

Maybe someone could tell me why we're talking about DPCIM like 10 pages later?

- Ukraine is not a signatory to any cluster munitions laws (or am I wrong?)

- The area that cluser munitions are being fired in are already drowning in AP/AT mines
- CLuster munitions have a failure rate but people are talking like its 50% or something

- The area is already covered in normal old UX

- Ukraine needs artillery rounds

So like whats the deal?

1. There are more facets to a disussion or a decision than "is this act barely legal?"

2. You don't put out a house fire by burning down the garage.

3. People who can do maths know that a small percentage of an enormous number is still a huge number. 100,000 x 74 x .025 = 185,000 unstable and difficult to dispose of munitions, which will take something like 185-person-years to clear, on top of all the other clearance and rebuilding.

4. That's not entirely true - all new areas will be targeted in the coming weeks and months. All UXO are dangerous, but DPICM sub-munitions are particularly unstable.

5. That's a good point, but it's an argument of extremis, not an argument of utility. HE and especially PGM would be - and is - a better option, both for their battlefield utility and to reduce the danger down the road.

Edited July 9, 2023 by JonS

[The_Capt]

39 minutes ago, JonS said:

1. There are more facets to a disussion or a decision than "is this act barely legal?"

2. You don't put out a house fire by burning down the garage.

3. People who can do maths know that a small percentage of an enormous number is still a huge number. 100,000 x 74 x .025 = 185,000 unstable and difficult to dispose of munitions, which will take something like 185-person-years to clear, on top of all the other clearance and rebuilding.

4. That's not entirely true - all new areas will be targeted in the coming weeks and months. All UXO are dangerous, but DPICM sub-munitions are particularly unstable.

5. That's a good point, but it's an argument of extremis, not an argument of utility. HE and especially PGM would be - and is - a better option, both for their battlefield utility and to reduce the danger down the road.

While I do not dismiss the UXO/ROW of side of this debate, if we are going to use maths:

- On a 200 km front with 50km depth (basically the central frontage from Zap to Donetsk) we are talking 10,000,000,000 sq meters of real estate - it is late so check my math (200,000 m x 50,000 m).  185,000 duds across that sort of area comes to roughly 1 UXO for approx 54,000 sq meters (about 500 x 100 m area, or 5 football fields.) 

Of course there this will not be uniform distribution, there will be areas of high concentration of UXO, here battlefield recording will be key.  High res records of each DPICM shoot will need to be kept so that contamination can be tracked.  The good news on DPICM is that they are technically surface laid unlike mines; however, that is not a guarantee as they can and will be covered up by vegetation etc.  

- This will also render roughly 7.2 million live fully functioning submunition rounds able to do no small damage to both RA mech and infantry forces if applied properly.  That is the payoff as it relates to utility.  In regard to these weapons usage, as there is no legal issue, it is a Ukrainian decision as to whether the risk is worth the payoff.  Clearly the Ukrainian government has decided that “yes” it is worth the risk.

Further given the context, post-war these munitions will fall under a public health/hazard risk.  Currently in Ukraine roughly 102/100,000 people die every years from cancer.  Out of nation of roughly 44 million that is around 45k deaths every year.  Every one of those 185k duds would have to kill someone at that 45k rate for about 4 years to match the hazard of cancer as a disease.

https://ascopubs.org/doi/10.1200/GO.22.00123#:~:text=According to the Globocan database,927.6%2F100%2C000 in the country.

More realistically these UXO will fall much lower, likely lower than vehicle accident death rates pre-war (around 5k depending who you ask):

https://www.roadsafetyfacility.org/country/ukraine

Again if every one of those 185k duds kills a civilian it will take about 37 years before they are all done, at the same rate as traffic accidents.  Of course not every dud is going to kill a civilian, in fact with education and clearance over those “185 years” the death/injury rate will likely be well below traffic deaths.  The major cost is loss of land usage:

Worst case is about 925k football fields of land that will be unusable due to these duds (1 per 5 fields until cleared - basically that entire 200 x 50 km strip.  Ukraine has about 579k sq kms of land that had value in 2017:

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/ukraine/land-use-protected-areas-and-national-wealth/ua-land-area 

That strip of land we are talking about is roughly 10k sq kms - so roughly 1.7%, not counting whatever they have lost to Russian UXOs and mines.  Which is pretty has already (could be as high as 25%)

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/soils-war-toxic-legacy-ukraines-breadbasket-2023-03-01/

Of course right now the loss of that land to Russian occupation is also likely the greater threat.  However mitigation during post-war reconstruction will definitely be a consideration.  However is we are going to reduce this to strictly dollars and land, if these munitions result in similar gains as we saw last Fall, the losses in land due to US supplied DPICM will be far out stripped by the economic gains of re-taken lands being back in Ukrainian hands.

So What?  Well in this case the risk/cost calculus is a national decision, not one of international law.  There is a moral/ethical angle but again so are things like legalization of drugs and nation states reserve the right to weigh these issues internally.  Ukraine has likely done the math and decided that the risk is worth it.  The value of land retaken is worth more than land lost due to use of these weapons, even in non-contaminated areas.  Further the public health risk is also likely considered manageable and mitigable, again doing the math.

In the harsh calculus of war, I can see how this all makes sense to Ukrainian decision makers.  In fact the worst case is if they use the DPICM and the offensive fails anyway the contamination will likely remain on occupied RA territory, which at this point may be viewed as a positive in this upside down world we live in now.

[chuckdyke]

I hope nobody is here of the opinion that they understand the issue better than the Ukrainian Generals running the campaign in the Eastern Donbas.