How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

45 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Harumph, harumph. Well to gather more information is certainly never bad advice and I will do my best to follow it. 

Since the internal situation of China is not really related to Ukraine, I will keep my tooth-box shut on the topic though, even if I do find something which enlightens me and changes my view of the iron-fisted control the CCP firmly has in my view.

Sorry just grumpy.  I’m on the ground now with food and wine in the belly. 

so the reason I think China is not quite the monolith has to do with a couple trends 

1 demographics. China is about to fall off a population cliff with no way to alter it.  The one child policy created a ticking time bomb and the current financial position for younger people is so bad there is no way to entice them to have more children. 

2 employment. China has made a big deal of building opportunity and growing their middle class. On the one hand they have been wildly successful, on the other they have created a problem in that the children of that new middle class expect to get employment commensurate with their education, problem is there simply aren’t work opportunities so they are forced into work they resent. 

3 the pension system - issue here is similar to that facing the US social security system however it is looking at a much bigger meltdown largely due to the previous couple issues

4 last is housing  China is facing a worse housing crisis than the US, again over promising to its population  there have been several major failures in development projects with average Chinese losing major amounts of money  not sure if you recall the recent incidents where folks went to get their money from the banks and the CCP manipulated their Covid travel restrictions to specifically limit their ability to do so, it got called out with major protests till the CCP had to step in and guarantee their investments  

you’ll notice none of the items I listed had anything to do with politics  I don’t think democracy itself is a big motivator, it is all about financial issues  the social compromise in China is based around wealth and opportunity and the CCP is failing heavily in that regard  If things get bad undoubtedly the state will come down heavy, but in doing so will have broken that social contract.  There have been a couple different crisis lately , the Covid lockdowns, bank issues etc and the govt has been forced to back down several times now.  Control is solid for now but there are definitely some cracks and the source of those is something I don’t think the CCP can solve for  

 

[sburke]

4 hours ago, keas66 said:

I'm reading about them and it looks to me that The CCP/Police crack down hard every time there is an outburst/protest  of any sort . Are you reading/seeing something different ? Or are you hypothesizing that the CCP can't keep this up ( internal control of its population - or doesn't have the will ? ) . I don't buy it myself - The Chinese are a cowed population - and until I see  signs of violent protests erupting I see no signs of an end to the CCP .

See longer post above but if you followed that bank\housing issue where they manipulated the Covid data, that turned into a physical standoff with CCP goons and the common folks won that fight. So no I don’t think they are all that cowed, they are complacent until they get screwed. Then things start going sideways. 

[sburke]

4 hours ago, keas66 said:

And yet the protests ended with no change in Government or leadership and some token officials likely punished .  The population has no other government to vote for so no change in ruling party . Lets say  violent country wide protests  start  over  economic issues in the near future - whether it be due to real estate or  industrial issues  - You don't think the CCP will use the Army if it has to ? It has done it before and it will do it again . The CCP is an Authoritarian Dictatorship - they only way they will change is at the point of a gun .

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/31/china/china-xi-national-security-meeting-intl-hnk/index.html

So you are saying there have been violent protests that forced the govt to back down yet the CCP wasn’t overthrown and the govt is likely to call out the army if protests spread nationwide.  Have I got that right?

not sure when this thread leapt into fantasy land about how quickly social change happens but it kind of aligns with the unrealistic expectations that get fielded for how quickly Ukraine will defeat the RA, how NATO is supposed to destroy Russia without Russia going bonkers and losing control of their nuclear arsenal etc

we kind of need a healthy dose of reality here and patience.  Like think in 20 year terms not 20 day terms  it sucks when instant gratification is too slow, but human movements and social change take generations  

Edited July 5, 2023 by sburke

[sburke]

44 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Hold on, if openly supporting Prigozjin makes one liar and unreliable then half of us in this thread are guilty as charged. Seriously, how many posts did in one way or another express approval for the coup in Russia? Not joking, are we using double standards here?

Support may be too strong a word, but Prig did make some statements blowing the cover off Russia’s stated losses.  I think the position most expressed here was one of recognizing the fractures in Russia’s military/political class. 
so I wouldn’t necessarily call someone a liar because he supports Prig. Sometimes these guys slip up and state the truth to embarrass their rivals. 

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

I didnt see this post before, so I am a liar and do not keep my tooth-box as shut as it should be. But this is exactly what I tried to express.

A country in which kitchen knives are registered with micro-chips and chained to walls to deny possible rebel groups the chance to hoard weapons.

I know a few Chinese, done a couple projects there.  Been to Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai multiple times. Never heard of anyone having microchipped registered knives chained to the wall.  No way am I gonna ask as their opinion of me will likely change pretty quick and deservedly so. 

[dan/california]

Quote

"Pryyutne Ukrainian forces have liberated the town of Pryyutne heavy shelling continues.

[kimbosbread]

That’s going to put big pressure on Urozhaine. Presumably Russia will retreat in order to avoid encirclement in short order?

[dan/california]

Regarding the post above Ukraine keeps putting pressure on this axis. They are basically trying to follow the road Google Maps calls the T0518 down to Mariupol. Obviously there are a lot of Russians, and a lot of mines between them and the Sea of Azov. All the public satellite info though suggest there are fewer prepared defenses on this axis than there are on some of the others.

Edited July 5, 2023 by dan/california

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Sorry just grumpy.  I’m on the ground now with food and wine in the belly. 

so the reason I think China is not quite the monolith has to do with a couple trends 

1 demographics. China is about to fall off a population cliff with no way to alter it.  The one child policy created a ticking time bomb and the current financial position for younger people is so bad there is no way to entice them to have more children. 

2 employment. China has made a big deal of building opportunity and growing their middle class. On the one hand they have been wildly successful, on the other they have created a problem in that the children of that new middle class expect to get employment commensurate with their education, problem is there simply aren’t work opportunities so they are forced into work they resent. 

3 the pension system - issue here is similar to that facing the US social security system however it is looking at a much bigger meltdown largely due to the previous couple issues

4 last is housing  China is facing a worse housing crisis than the US, again over promising to its population  there have been several major failures in development projects with average Chinese losing major amounts of money  not sure if you recall the recent incidents where folks went to get their money from the banks and the CCP manipulated their Covid travel restrictions to specifically limit their ability to do so, it got called out with major protests till the CCP had to step in and guarantee their investments  

you’ll notice none of the items I listed had anything to do with politics  I don’t think democracy itself is a big motivator, it is all about financial issues  the social compromise in China is based around wealth and opportunity and the CCP is failing heavily in that regard  If things get bad undoubtedly the state will come down heavy, but in doing so will have broken that social contract.  There have been a couple different crisis lately , the Covid lockdowns, bank issues etc and the govt has been forced to back down several times now.  Control is solid for now but there are definitely some cracks and the source of those is something I don’t think the CCP can solve for  

 

As said, I won't continue this topic from my side here. Just wanted to say I read and acknowledge your post and add one single thing so I don't look like a loon:

I also have a few people over there / some experience with the country from past projects. The chained and registered knives are real -but it is recent and most prominently employed in the regions of ethnic minorities. Not the ones privileged by the system in the big cities like Shanghai and Beijing. The experiences of individuals of a country as wide and big as China can be very different.

Edited July 5, 2023 by Carolus
clarifications

[kevinkin]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think the CCP is headed down the drain, but I agree with Carolus that it is going to take either a long time or a confluence of cataclysmic economic shocks before we see it start to fall apart.

Predicting the life span and end of certain institutions reminds me of the Liddy Effect (known by other names). 

The Lindy effect describes a heuristic or rule of thumb that suggests the future life expectancy of certain non-perishable things, such as ideas, technologies, or cultural artifacts, is proportional to their current age.

In other words, the longer something has already existed, the longer it is likely to continue existing. The Lindy effect is based on the observation that many ideas, technologies, or cultural phenomena that have survived for a long time tend to have built-in mechanisms that make them more robust, adaptable, and reliable.

The Lindy effect is not a hard and fast rule but rather a probabilistic observation. It suggests that the longer something has endured, the more likely it is to continue enduring. This is because over time, the flaws or vulnerabilities of an idea or technology are more likely to be discovered and eliminated, making it more robust.

The Lindy effect has implications for decision-making and forecasting. It suggests that when assessing the potential longevity or viability of something, it is often beneficial to consider its historical track record and the duration it has already been in existence. This concept has found applications in fields such as technology adoption, investment strategies, and cultural analysis.

There are many examples that do not fit and nothing lasts forever for sure. The use of horses for mobility is over. But the wheel they used and agriculture they depend on are still with us. Longevity is the result of adaptation and resilience. So, even when we observe what amounts being a train wreak, there are underlying reasons why it stays on the tracks. And studying those reasons provides actionable insights. That's why I don't sell a stock that has increased dividends each year for over 50+ years. While the stock holder has no influence, they know something is being done right. In the case of evil empires they are doing something "correctly" to hold on to power over time. The Lindy principle does predict good and evil will struggle against each other forever. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by kevinkin

[Carolus]

Stoltenberg will remain Secretary General of NATO until October of next year due to current "unprecedented security challenges". 

I think he has done an amicable job so far, from the perspective of a civilian.

[fireship4]

https://news.yahoo.com/prigozhin-arrives-st-petersburg-takes-092701789.html

Prigozhin makes a quick visit to St. Petersburg pick up some confiscated firearms?!

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Teufel said:

Hold on, if openly supporting Prigozjin makes one liar and unreliable then half of us in this thread are guilty as charged. Seriously, how many posts did in one way or another express approval for the coup in Russia? Not joking, are we using double standards here?

Nah, nobody here supported Prig, other than cheering on his forces taking out high valued aircraft.  Initially being impressed with taking over Rostov and thinking he had a good shot at taking/isolating Moscow is not support any more than complementing Russia's withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnepr is expressing support of Putin.

Nope, I think it is pretty safe to say that anybody posting to this thread would prefer to see Prig strung up and swinging from a lamppost.  With support like that, who needs enemies?

What I think most people here wanted out of Prig's charge on Moscow was for maximum chaos within the Russian military which would translate into battlefield opportunities for Ukraine.  But even then some people, myself and The_Capt in particular, are very leery of Russia destabilizing to that extent.  Things could wind up being worse for Ukraine even if there was a military collapse that benefited it in the near term.

Khodorkovsky, on the other hand, said people should support Prig's efforts.  Meaning, he was cheering Prig on as a replacement for Putin.  I don't think anybody here would be even remotely happy with that outcome.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

https://news.yahoo.com/prigozhin-arrives-st-petersburg-takes-092701789.html

Prigozhin makes a quick visit to St. Petersburg pick up some confiscated firearms?!

Yup, and supposedly about $111m in seized Wagner assets are being turned back over to him.

https://news.yahoo.com/billions-confiscated-cash-were-returned-111837008.html

As I keep saying... there's still a lot going on behind the scenes that we don't know about.  Putin is still not in full control of the situation and might never be.

Steve

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, and supposedly about $111m in seized Wagner assets are being turned back over to him.

https://news.yahoo.com/billions-confiscated-cash-were-returned-111837008.html

As I keep saying... there's still a lot going on behind the scenes that we don't know about.  Putin is still not in full control of the situation and might never be.

Steve

So if Putin gets the cat, who gets the CD collection?  Gotta be the best 80s synth stuff around.  And we all know they are keeping keys.

[Beleg85]

Interesting...while Prigozhin is hiding somewhere and going back for his stuff pariodically, Russians publicize materials from searching of his house. Obvious purpose is to show him as just another oligarch.

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by Beleg85

[kevinkin]

6 hours ago, Teufel said:

are we using double standards here?

No one supported Prig at all. He is a monster - and that insults monsters. As Steve said above, we supported a manageable level of chaos behind Russian lines. Enthusiasm following the exciting 48 hours should not be mistaken for some form of approval. That ****er ain't on our team. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

No one supported Prig at all. He is a monster - and that insults monsters. As Steve said above, we supported a manageable level of chaos behind Russian lines. Enthusiasm following the exciting 48 hours should not be mistaken for some form approval. That ****er ain't on our team. 

Put another way... the enemy of my enemy is still my enemy, not my friend

Steve

[DesertFox]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What I think most people here wanted out of Prig's charge on Moscow was for maximum chaos within the Russian military which would translate into battlefield opportunities for Ukraine. 

It is exactly that. Would have loved to see them de-militarize themselves to cubeniks and by that taking focus and troops away from ukraine.

[Beleg85]

Poor Prig...more photos are coming out from his residence. The guy had entire closet with wigs. No strange they couldn't find him after mutiny.

 

[DesertFox]

8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Poor Prig...more photos are coming out from his residence. The guy had entire closet with wigs. No strange they couldn't find him after mutiny.

 

Yeah, well worth of the next plot for a 007 flic. Did they find a cat somewhere?

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Khodorkovsky, on the other hand, said people should support Prig's efforts.  Meaning, he was cheering Prig on as a replacement for Putin.  I don't think anybody here would be even remotely happy with that outcome.

Exactly like hoping the goblin king can overthrow Sauron.  Probably better off since would start dark side civil war, but ya never know.

[Offshoot]

42 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Poor Prig...more photos are coming out from his residence. The guy had entire closet with wigs. No strange they couldn't find him after mutiny.

 

So Prigozhin's run on Moscow was just a larp about.

[G.I. Joe]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Exactly like hoping the goblin king can overthrow Sauron.  Probably better off since would start dark side civil war, but ya never know.

Grand Admiral Zaarin's coup attempt against Emperor Palpatine, maybe?

(And yes, I know that's old school Legends timeline material...)

[NamEndedAllen]

Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missile that was donated by the United Kingdom to Ukraine has reportedly fallen into Russian hands in a partially intact state. 
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/crashed-storm-shadow-missile-falls-into-russian-hands