How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1675922256352903169/photo/1

His version of the current map, The resemblance to the hedge grow battles after Normandy grow ever stronger. The breakthrough will happen when the available Russian forces have just been ground down to nothing.

Edited July 3, 2023 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

The helos need to be destroyed on the ground.  And the west has pissed around for so damn long on getting UKR enough long range weaponry that now UKR soldiers are dying entirely avoidable deaths.  Goddammitt.  Just infuriating.  Just think what a strike by multiple long range cluster munitions would do to those choppers. 

[BlackMoria]

The KA-52 compilation video could be just as it describes.... but we know RU loves exaggerating and misinformation.   I give equal weight to those being recycled training range videos.  And possible attacks on Ukr decoys.  We know those are a thing and it would not be surprising to me that Ukraine is using decoys or mockups in some way against the helicopters.

Edited July 3, 2023 by BlackMoria

[kluge]

52 minutes ago, photon said:

Question asked out of total ignorance - since the helicopters seem to be flying very very low, what would rapidly retargeted 155mm airbursts do to them? Would they be able to range to 10km past the line of contact? Would good coordination with a Caesar or PzH2k battery deny helicopters the relevant airspace?

In theory, it shouldn't take much more than a well-placed artillery round or two to take down a helicopter.

In practice, imagine a shooter trying to hit a skeet target in midair with a shotgun from very long range, but the shooter can't see the target themselves and is receiving aiming instructions from someone else with, say, a 30 second delay.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, womble said:

I think maybe the problem might be that the helo won't sit still long enough for the Switchblade to complete its attack run (even if it's entirely unaware of the presence of loitering munitions), unless the Switchblade gets very lucky, or can arrange some sort of trap/surprise.

They can hit a moving terrorist truck so I would at least give them a test like I said above and rule them in or out quickly.  Something might be learned. But with a 40 minute life, a trap would have to sprung based on the predictability of RA tactics. 

[dan/california]

Helicopters may be an unsolved problem, but Ukraine finally has the assets to kill Russian artillery systems wholesale. Uragan fireworks are the best kind of fireworks.

[poesel]

Destroyed/damaged 2A6. Lots of black scorch marks, a blown track and part of the turret armor gone.

Can anyone guess what happened here? The crew seems to have survived, which is the most important part.

 

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, poesel said:

Destroyed/damaged 2A6. Lots of black scorch marks, a blown track and part of the turret armor gone.

Can anyone guess what happened here? The crew seems to have survived, which is the most important part.

 

Mine strike with an ATGM follow up would be my guess.  Left track is blown off.  

[kevinkin]

B-52s Keep Up Surge in Bomber Activity over Korean Peninsula

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/b-52s-surge-bomber-activity-korean-peninsula/

Let's consider moving those demonstrations about 4,500 miles to the west. 

Hot off the presses over at War Zone:

The Ukrainian Air Force on Monday released a video that appeared to included a tacit claim that one of its donated Patriot air defense systems downed several Russian aircraft on May 13, a day when Moscow lost at least four and possibly five aircraft within its own borders. 

“It would be a wasted shot in my opinion,” he said. “I say that based on mission requirements. Patriot systems are deployed to defend critical assets, meaning not take ‘pot shots’ at long range targets who may be planning to strike elsewhere.”

Given that, four, or even five kills from that distance would be a significant feat.

It is also possible, Shank noted, that Ukraine could have set up remote site launchers to engage targets further out. It's also possible, he said, that the Patriot's radar was able to detect and track targets that far and relay information to an air defense system much closer.

Ukraine is great at keeping everyone guessing even their allies. 

Edited July 3, 2023 by kevinkin

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

The helos need to be destroyed on the ground.

They're trying.

 

[JonS]

Range bubbles for AD systems seem weird compared to ATGMs for the reasons stated here (LOS issues, climbing against vs descending with gravity), but also because of target behaviour.

Compared to the time of flight, a ground target is essentially static. It might move 10m, or even 20m - heck, maybe 100m if it's boosting it down a highway - between launch and impact, but that's about it. Even if you lose lock, the target is going to be pretty near where you saw it, so the seeker only has to look there. For most practical purposes, compared to the range, the target can be treated as stationary.

Aircraft-as-targets are different. A Stinger SAM bimbles along at about 700m/s (although that will depend on the flight profile, but let's go with that) out to a range of about 8,000m, giving a flight time of 10-12 seconds. A Ka-52 can jog along at about 300km/h (~100m/s) and an Su-30 moves at around 1,000 km/h (250 m/s, or double that if the pilot is bricking it). Over the flight time of a Stinger, then, either a/c could be between 1 and 3km away from where it was when you launched, which is a somewhat tricky broken-LOS problem. And if that weren't bad enough, it really matters whether the target is crossing, advancing, or retreating relative to the firing position.

Also, theoretically, the engagement envelope of a Stinger would be a slightly squashed dome because physics; it just won't go 8,000m straight up. But in practice it's a significantly squashed dome because the engagement envelope has to take into account the fact that the target might have moved 1-3km from where it was at lock-on-and-launch. So, for example, a target 7,000m straight up is theoretically engageable, but by the time the missile got up there the target would have moved well beyond the range envelope.

ie; range envelope >> engagement envelope, in some non-intuitive ways.

Granted that helicopters typically fly a lot lower and a lot slower than jet a/c, so in principle you could have an anti-helicopter missile, and a different missile specialised for engaging aircraft. But operationally that'd be a frigging nightmare. Life on operations is already hard enough without having to rummage around in your golfbag looking for the right club whenever a target appears and you might only have seconds to identify it and engage.

[dan/california]

h

Quote

 

ttps://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1049/rsn2.12062

 

The problem of radar helicopter detection and classification requires simple and fast modelling of rotorcraft signature to aid the design of specific waveforms or to provide quality training data to machine learning algorithms.

 

Deep dive into how a helicopter looks on radar, with a lot of the actual math. The relevant bit of the Ukrainian government should be talking to these guys, or someone just like them. The idea is to teach a drone to find the chopper on its own.  Then you can just tell it to fly circles about ten kilometers from the planned breaching action. see a rotor signature, go meet your destiny little robot.

Edit: It could be very useful to get the pieces of some downed Ka-52s to the right people... 

Edited July 3, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

The KA-52 compilation video could be just as it describes.... but we know RU loves exaggerating and misinformation.   I give equal weight to those being recycled training range videos.  And possible attacks on Ukr decoys.  We know those are a thing and it would not be surprising to me that Ukraine is using decoys or mockups in some way against the helicopters.

Ack!  I forgot all about that other Russian trick... show footage from somewhere other than Ukraine, such as Syria or training.  So that makes SIX reality filters to run this Russian video through.

Thanks for that reminder!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Mine strike with an ATGM follow up would be my guess.  Left track is blown off.  

Yup, that is my guess too.  Look at the outward angle of the forward road wheel and the blackened area around it.  This could be one that got disabled and then hit with an KA-52 ATGM.

Steve

[akd]

Part 3, confusion and casevac:

 

[BamaMatt]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

Couldn't NATO put some sort of surveillance aircraft over theBlack sea that would be able to spot helicopters and send the data around? I quite like the idea of theRussian choppers being spotted from one side, and hit by long range SAMs from the other.

The E-3 Sentry AWACS, and probably the E-8C Joint Stars as well. My earlier post about sending Switchblades (probably too slow) assumes that the U.S. knows about the helicopters from the moment they leave the flight deck.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

Range bubbles for AD systems seem weird compared to ATGMs for the reasons stated here (LOS issues, climbing against vs descending with gravity), but also because of target behaviour.

Compared to the time of flight, a ground target is essentially static. It might move 10m, or even 20m - heck, maybe 100m if it's boosting it down a highway - between launch and impact, but that's about it. Even if you lose lock, the target is going to be pretty near where you saw it, so the seeker only has to look there. For most practical purposes, compared to the range, the target can be treated as stationary.

Aircraft-as-targets are different. A Stinger SAM bimbles along at about 700m/s (although that will depend on the flight profile, but let's go with that) out to a range of about 8,000m, giving a flight time of 10-12 seconds. A Ka-52 can jog along at about 300km/h (~100m/s) and an Su-30 moves at around 1,000 km/h (250 m/s, or double that if the pilot is bricking it). Over the flight time of a Stinger, then, either a/c could be between 1 and 3km away from where it was when you launched, which is a somewhat tricky broken-LOS problem. And if that weren't bad enough, it really matters whether the target is crossing, advancing, or retreating relative to the firing position.

Also, theoretically, the engagement envelope of a Stinger would be a slightly squashed dome because physics; it just won't go 8,000m straight up. But in practice it's a significantly squashed dome because the engagement envelope has to take into account the fact that the target might have moved 1-3km from where it was at lock-on-and-launch. So, for example, a target 7,000m straight up is theoretically engageable, but by the time the missile got up there the target would have moved well beyond the range envelope.

ie; range envelope >> engagement envelope, in some non-intuitive ways.

Granted that helicopters typically fly a lot lower and a lot slower than jet a/c, so in principle you could have an anti-helicopter missile, and a different missile specialised for engaging aircraft. But operationally that'd be a frigging nightmare. Life on operations is already hard enough without having to rummage around in your golfbag looking for the right club whenever a target appears and you might only have seconds to identify it and engage.

Thanks for that.  Yes, every launched weapon has a maximum range and an optimal engagement range to account for target shift.  If you launch when the target is within the optimal engagement range it will not be able to outrange, but can still out maneuver.

People need to think about relative speeds here.  An ATGM against a ground target is like an old man on a scooter trying to hit an old man with a walker.  Antiair missile against a helicopter is like an old man on a scooter trying to hit another old man on a scooter, with only one chance to get it right.  The margin for error is smaller against a ground target by a wide margin.  As Jon said, this means the weapons can be tailored appropriately.  There's a reason ATGMs are cheaper than AD missiles.

Steve

[Offshoot]

The Ukrainian Air Force releases their own compilation video of sorts

 

Forbes have used the dated kill boards to piece together some info on the episode where the Ukrainians took out multiple Russian aircraft in short order over Bryansk oblast - https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/03/a-ukrainian-patriot-missile-crew-shot-down-five-russian-aircraft-in-two-minutes-and-possibly-forced-the-kremlin-to-rethink-its-tactics/?sh=75c2b4a41a5b

Edited July 4, 2023 by Offshoot

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Carolus said:

This twitter thread claims that Russia has significantly scaled up its equipment production.

Time for Ukrainian doom-posting for once.

With Western populations unwilling to spend an extra penny on the war (most equipment and support is coming out of existing budgets), is the West allowing the most important event of thus century so far to slip out of its grasp through laziness and complacency? Did Russia win a few years ago by destabilizing us from the inside too much?

Not actually what I believe. Just wondering about possiblities.

 

 

Yeah, I'd say this is alarmist.  It could very well be that Russia has increased output as they have been trying to do so since losses began adding up.  But c'mon...

Quote

The attrition war against someone who has 18.000-25.000 armored vehicles in service and in reserve, and have the facilities to keep refurbishing it, definitely wasn't a good choice.

Did the Russians idle their industry and army on porpoise to make NATO believe in a victory of attrition? Nobody knows.

First of all, WTF is that last statement?  Russia would deliberately idle their new war production while they were scraping to refurbish rusting vehicles?  Give me a break.

As for the estimate of Russia's vehicles, I thought by this point people would stop using ridiculous numbers based on counts that included vast numbers of rusting junk already stripped of critical parts.

The other thing to consider (besides crew shortages, as mentioned) is that they are inevitably cutting corners to focus on numbers out of the factories.  This is the Russian way.  So even if the Russian production figures or estimates are to be taken at face value, a certain percentage of them are likely to be deficient or defective or both.  Cripes, this was true for their peacetime production!  Who could ever forget this:

Obviously any effective increase in Russian war production is cause for concern, but there's no reason to light one's hair on fire and run around screaming the world is about to end.

Steve

[Taranis]

Ukraine forms 10th Army Corps

Quote

Ukrainian command has decided to create a new army corps in the structure of Ukrainian Ground Forces.

10th Army Corps was created in Poltava, and it groups several Ukrainian mechanized, artillery and other related brigades of Ground Forces of Ukraine. The unit received a military number A4767, and its own insignia.

Newly formed Marine Corps gets rebranded

Quote

The officials introduce new visuals for the recently formed Ukrainian Marine Corps.

Ukrainian Marine Corps is a new branch of the Armed Forced formed on May 23, 2023. Ukrainian Marines were previously part of the Naval Forces, but due to ongoing Russian invasion and specific needs of Ukrainian marines, they were separated from the Navy and a new branch was created – the Marine Corps.

To support the creation of the Marine Corps branch, the officials have decided to unify symbology of all separate marine units and presented a new visual identity of Marine Corps. All emblems now follow the same mix of semi-light and dark blue color background with a silver symbol in the middle.

Source : https://militaryland.net/

[cesmonkey]

 

[Carolus]

In light of the comments about Russian arms production, here a piece which says that probably nothing has changed based on spending.

https://jamestown.org/program/the-true-state-of-russian-arms-manufacturing-june-2023/

 

Caveat of course: Outside of well-connected intelligence services in the West, nobody can truly know. Official Russian numbers nowadays are not any more trustworthy than official numbers about the glorious four year plan under father Stalin.

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Carolus
typos

[TheVulture]

Drone attack on Moscow's Vnukovo International Airport caused it to be closed for several hours. Russia blames Ukraine. Ukraine hasn't said anything either way yet as far as I know.

BBC report:  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66094744

Quote

Ukraine war: Major Moscow airport flights disrupted by drone attack

By Kathryn Armstrong

BBC News

 

Ukraine has launched a drone attack on Moscow, the Russian defence ministry says, forcing flights to be diverted from Vnukovo International Airport.

Five drones were reportedly used in Tuesday's attack, which also targeted locations in the wider region around the capital.

The defence ministry said all the drones were shot down and there were no casualties or damage.

Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the alleged attack.

Restrictions at Vnukovo airport, one of Moscow's three international airports, have now been lifted. Flights from Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt were among those affected.

According to the defence ministry, four of the drones flying in the Moscow region were shot down by air defence systems. A fifth was intercepted electronically before crashing.

"An attempt by the Kyiv regime to attack a zone where civil infrastructure is located, including an airport that receives international flights, is a new terrorist act," foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Telegram.

Russian state media said one of the drones crashed in the town of Kubinka, which is roughly 36km (22 miles) from Vnukovo airport in the southwest of the city.

Another was reportedly shot down near the village of Valuevo, also near the airport.

The BBC is trying to verify this information independently.

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

 

So if Russia is ramping up military industrial production, why is there a shortage of artillery ammunition?  Further if Russia’s high tech/electronics is the main focus then why are they also not improving ISR or PGM?
 

Attrition is not about “stuff”, it is about power.  Power is: Will, Capability, Relationships and Opportunity/Options - so let’s play “how is Russia doing” through that lens.

[Carolus]

Understandable frustration.