How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kimbosbread]

Patience is in order, I think. Russia is throwing in their reserves, and in doing this commits their supplies and vehicles to within standard artillery and fpv drone range. As long as Ukraine can push a km here, and km there and keep the rail line to Melitopol threatened (and especially once the bridge gets hit), conditions are set for things to proceed slowly until there is a collapse, just like Kherson last year. You cannot just expect to roll through several lines of prepared defenses overnight. Once Russia burns through their reserves, they won’t have a backup plan, other than blowing up the ZNPP. 

In fact, a big reason to push through Bakhmut and Donetsk is that it is likely less fortified than Melitopol, and is less likely to trigger the ZNPP being blown up.

[womble]

25 minutes ago, pintere said:

Those Ka-52s need a tactical solution, and the most promising one seems to be F-16s coupled with western AA missiles.

This is a problem, aye. And promising though they seem, from what simulations can tell us, the F-16/AMRAAM combo isn't quite up to it.

What sortof puzzles me is that an ATGM (with a massive warhead to punch through MBT armour) can be effectively launched at 10km range, but "mobile" SAMs struggle to manage that sort of engagement envelope. Starstreak has a ceiling, AIUI of 10km, but won't reach out that far (I don't know the dynamics of why) laterally. Or perhaps Startstreak is rare or fills a more important niche in the AD complex than "Keeping the AHs off our spearpoint formations".

But it seems like it should be a fairly important programme to develop a relatively portable missile that at least matches the range of the threats that the tip of the spear is going to face, and mount it on a chassis that can keep up and survive in the general environment the tip of the spear is expected to exist in. And then send them all to Ukraine.

[Sojourner]

8 hours ago, Carolus said:

The oligarchs have the amount of money that they will feel no personal lack of anything. Sanctions against the civilian populace are beside the point. Western nations will never apply sanctions which provide serious harm (food, medicine) to civilians, and any inconvinience in daily life will not change the situation in Russia because the majority of the population is politically passive and the part of the population which isn't apolitical are the Angry Patriots & Co who scream from the rooftoops that is is time to "finally take the gloves off and show the Ukrainian subhumans the what is what".

 

The sanctions which make sense and which need to be tightened and enforced three times over are: parts for machining and machine maintenance, software, military goods and goods with double-usage, so all links of micro-chips, opto-electronics for targeting systems, everything with regard to aviation, as well as any sanction which is macro-economically relevant. That means making Russian exports worth less and Russian imports cost more on the world market.

 

7 hours ago, womble said:

And large chunks of that money are kept outside Russia. The international community needs to decide that that should all be turned over to Ukraine. London, aka Moscow-on-Thames is one of the greatest concentrations of illicitly-gotten wealth, and the UK government should be leading the way in recovering that money for Ukraine. The oligarchs might feel differently about Putin when his antics have chopped a zero off the end of their fortune.

An interesting article that explains what is going on in this regard and why. A bit lengthy but quite approachable even if you don't have degrees in finance or international law.

London-based American investor Bill Browder said laws must be rewritten “to say that sovereign immunity, of course, always applies, except if a country is guilty of an act of aggression against a peaceful neighbor, in which case, the damages caused by that crime of aggression, should trump sovereign immunity.”

“It's not a legal issue, it's a political and moral issue.”

A year into full-scale invasion, West struggles to seize Russian assets for Ukraine

https://kyivindependent.com/a-year-into-invasion-west-struggles-to-seize-russian-assets-for-ukraine/

[pintere]

13 minutes ago, womble said:

This is a problem, aye. And promising though they seem, from what simulations can tell us, the F-16/AMRAAM combo isn't quite up to it.

What sortof puzzles me is that an ATGM (with a massive warhead to punch through MBT armour) can be effectively launched at 10km range, but "mobile" SAMs struggle to manage that sort of engagement envelope. Starstreak has a ceiling, AIUI of 10km, but won't reach out that far (I don't know the dynamics of why) laterally. Or perhaps Startstreak is rare or fills a more important niche in the AD complex than "Keeping the AHs off our spearpoint formations".

But it seems like it should be a fairly important programme to develop a relatively portable missile that at least matches the range of the threats that the tip of the spear is going to face, and mount it on a chassis that can keep up and survive in the general environment the tip of the spear is expected to exist in. And then send them all to Ukraine.

For the Starstreak, I suspect it has to do with air being lighter at higher altitudes. Thus the total amount of resistance is less going straight up than parallel to the ground the whole way.

The problem exists mostly because this problem was not one that had been anticipated by western armies. The idea was that, in a battlefield with air superiority (if not air parity) then MANPADS would only be a last resort weapon against close in attacks.

As this war shows, there’s absolutely a need for a new MANPADS that can engage helicopters at low altitude and long ranges. I sure hope Western developers have recognized this and are at least in the early phases of a project like this by now.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, pintere said:

For the Starstreak, I suspect it has to do with air being lighter at higher altitudes. Thus the total amount of resistance is less going straight up than parallel to the ground the whole way.

The problem exists mostly because this problem was not one that had been anticipated by western armies. The idea was that, in a battlefield with air superiority (if not air parity) then MANPADS would only be a last resort weapon against close in attacks.

As this war shows, there’s absolutely a need for a new MANPADS that can engage helicopters at low altitude and long ranges. I sure hope Western developers have recognized this and are at least in the early phases of a project like this by now.

MANPADS will likely never be more than a LOS weapon, so that puts it out of the running to take down aircraft at 10km.  The size of the motor/fuel combo also inherently limits range, not to mention an ATGM fired from up high has gravity assisting instead of resisting as a ground based missile does.

The only ground based solution is one that has radar and pretty large missiles.  These systems exist, though it seems none of them are adept at hitting low flying aircraft at long distances.  The British "Land Ceptor", which started to see British service in 2021.  It has the range, but I have no idea how well it does against helicopters doing peek-a-boo popup tactics.

Overall, though, the point is correct that the West has invested far more in aerial AD systems than ground based.  It figured out a while ago this was a bad idea, but it's takes a LONG time to correct for that.

Steve

[kevinkin]

17 minutes ago, pintere said:

As this war shows, there’s absolutely a need for a new MANPADS that can engage helicopters at low altitude and long ranges. I sure hope Western developers have recognized this and are at least in the early phases of a project like this by now.

I think the west is working on all sort of systems based on the combat in this latest war. The stinger is still functional but some components are difficult to procure. Raytheon has announced they are developing a new MANPAD for the 2020's to fit in with today's supply chain. So Ukraine is behind the 8 ball with respect to the numbers available and the best technology is years away.  

[Gpig]

Railgun needed

[kevinkin]

Lasers might be first. 

[Jr Buck Private]

I'm a little confused as to why trenches are still such huge obstacles these days?    With highly accurate artillery and spotting drones, etc, and with delayed fuses on shells that bury into the ground before exploding.   Everybody knows pretty much were the Russian trenches are so why can't they be blown to hell with pinpoint accuracy?  Seems like men sitting in trenches should be sitting ducks.   I'm obviously no military expert but I know a lot of you can explain it better.  They must be building them in a way to protect themselves better.   Mine fields sitting in front of them is of course a big deterrent.

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Jr Buck Private said:

I'm a little confused as to why trenches are still such huge obstacles these days?    With highly accurate artillery and spotting drones, etc, and with delayed fuses on shells that bury into the ground before exploding.   Everybody knows pretty much were the Russian trenches are so why can't they be blown to hell with pinpoint accuracy?  Seems like men sitting in trenches should be sitting ducks.   I'm obviously no military expert but I know a lot of you can explain it better.  They must be building them in a way to protect themselves better.   Mine fields sitting in front of them is of course a big deterrent.

A lot of this was discussed a thousand or more pages ago. and the real problem is a minefield with even a few defenders left alive in the trenches behind it. With modern tech you have to suppress everything within ~5km of the breaching attempt that has LOS, and even that doesn't solve for drone directed artillery and helicopters. And if the bad guys are doing it correctly they will start tossing artillery/rocket delivered mines directly into the breach as you are trying to make it. It is a ridiculously hard problem. If the U.S. finally come through with the M26 rockets for the HIMARS it might make a real difference in discouraging the Russians to either side of the breach.

And as discussed above NATO assumes it will have the full capability of NATO's air superiority complex to kill the helicopters, and the Ukrainians just don't.

[kevinkin]

44 minutes ago, Jr Buck Private said:

why can't they be blown to hell with pinpoint accuracy?

There is also a major supply issue regarding artillery shells (on both sides). The ground can absorb a lot of shock when the trenches are well made. On top of that, the UA is spreading their initial offensive moves across the front. So available shells can't be concentrated. Additionally, Russia is attacking in some northern sectors and those attacks need to be punished. I think hitting Russians outside their trenches is an efficient use of the shells in short supply. 

[Kinophile]

@Battlefront.com until the Yooks finally mount MANPADS to Drones in a systematic manner. 

[billbindc]

Guys, I have some bad news. It seems that the entire Ukrainian army is kaput.

 

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Guys, I have some bad news. It seems that the entire Ukrainian army is kaput.

 

Well then, I guess this thread can be locked up and we can all go home now.  Macgregor is so well informed and has never once been wrong even once!

And with that, we should all be reminded that no matter how much someone worries about us being in an echo chamber here, think about where Macgregor and his ilk are.  On second thought, that wouldn't be fun at all

It's a good thing that Macgregor is going off the deep end into the abyss.  He's desperate to keep his audience entertained.

Steve

[JonS]

46 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Guys, I have some bad news. It seems that the entire Ukrainian army is kaput.

 

That's gotta be satire, right?

If not, then ... why? 

I mean, sure: clicks, money, marching orders, which is nice in the very short term, but that'd be like declaring the sun will definitely be rising in the west tomorrow. Cool for today, but when tomorrow dawns...

[Battlefront.com]

You all should check out the lengthy top section of ISW's July 2nd report.  Very interesting stuff going on.  To summarize...

Russian MoD is pushing bloggers to regurgitate official fantasies about military operations, in particular the supposed major victory they had in the Antonivsky bridge area.  The bloggers fractured, with some saying that it was a major victory and the invasion of New York City can now proceed.  Others, however, have pointed out it was a small Ukrainian force and it's still there, despite everything that was thrown at it.  And "throwing" is the right word for it, as they are deeply critical of the condition of Russian forces in the area and how they were handled by the MoD.

We've seen fractures and infighting amongst the RU Nats before, but this is in the context of the Wagner mutiny.  As I've been saying, if things were all decided against Prig and his buddies, then we'd likely not see such a split.  Things are still happening.

ISW cases out a scenario where the MoD is desperate to keep truth from Putin, especially after their dismal failure to confront Wagner's forces.  The MoD wants all the bloggers to tow the line, so they are now supposedly going after those who do not.  Which, ISW points out, are some of the ones that personally meet with Putin each month.  The implication here is that the MoD doesn't want these particular bloggers speaking freely when they have the chance to tell Putin at the next meeting.  From the MoD's perspective, no good can come from that.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, JonS said:

That's gotta be satire, right?

If not, then ... why? 

I mean, sure: clicks, money, marching orders, which is nice in the very short term, but that'd be like declaring the sun will definitely be rising in the west tomorrow. Cool for today, but when tomorrow dawns...

Macgregor clearly has cognitive issues.  Which, before political correctness kicked in, we would just say "he's batpoop crazy".  He's no different than the nutjobs that predict the end of the world down to a specific hour on a specific day of the year.  When it turns out not to be true he'll come up with some way to keep the whakcos that follow him entertained and on the hook.  Again, just like religious/cult leaders that clearly aren't operating honestly or sanely do.

Let's also remember that Macgregor has been saying Ukraine is about to collapse since the war started.  And yet people still quote, interview, and revere him despite being wrong.  That's what happens when there's an entire subculture that is only concerned about a belief and not about truth.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

@Battlefront.com until the Yooks finally mount MANPADS to Drones in a systematic manner. 

Perhaps! They did make a minigun out of AKs...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14oswko/ukrainian_version_of_the_minigun_created_from/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

18 hours ago, Haiduk said:

More Russians in civilian clothing up close to the front.  IIRC the last one we saw was also in the left bank Kherson area.  The rear supply guys are supposedly more likely to be dressed like this, yes?  If so, it says something that short range drone bombers are getting at them.  Not enough frontline supply forces in the area?

For something completely different, I don't think I've seen a video of a drone killing a drone while it was on the ground before. 

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14osjst/an_easy_way_to_destroy_a_drone/

Ukraine apparently spotted it going down via parachute (failure?  Standard recovery method?) and sent one of their drones to deal with it.  This is a fairly recent and quite advanced operational level drone.  Someone is going to be missing this one:

https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/zala-421-16e5-unmanned-aircraft-system/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

And a bit of crude humor

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1675015388571090944

Steve

[dan/california]

16 hours ago, Carolus said:

The oligarchs have the amount of money that they will feel no personal lack of anything. Sanctions against the civilian populace are beside the point. Western nations will never apply sanctions which provide serious harm (food, medicine) to civilians, and any inconvinience in daily life will not change the situation in Russia because the majority of the population is politically passive and the part of the population which isn't apolitical are the Angry Patriots & Co who scream from the rooftoops that is is time to "finally take the gloves off and show the Ukrainian subhumans the what is what".

 

The sanctions which make sense and which need to be tightened and enforced three times over are: parts for machining and machine maintenance, software, military goods and goods with double-usage, so all links of micro-chips, opto-electronics for targeting systems, everything with regard to aviation, as well as any sanction which is macro-economically relevant. That means making Russian exports worth less and Russian imports cost more on the world market.

Even more than that the European companies that make the machines must be persuaded to wipe and fry the controllers for those machine tools.

On 7/1/2023 at 6:54 PM, Kinophile said:

Slow and steady keeps Ukrainian units alive and improving while constantly attriting RUS forces. At some point in time and space, inevitably, the RUS line will be properly punctured -  and quickly fixed.  But the grind will continue and yet more local punctures will happen,  each time requiring patching, each time getting worse before being fixed until one can't be,  then another and another and finally the failure cascade will begin. 

The absolutely key thing is to keep that pressure on for months.

This seems to be the critical ZSU principal -  keep attriting while preserving. 

The math is inexorable.

But it could be August - September before we see actual Russian brigade level failures,  without being fixing. 

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-2-2023

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in six sectors of the front on July 2 and made gains in some of these areas. 

 

Kinophile said it just exactly perfectly.

Edited July 3, 2023 by dan/california

[The_MonkeyKing]

Around 100 hits in this compilation

[Carolus]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Special-report-Russia-buying-civilian-drones-from-China-for-war-effort

 

China selling mini drones to Russia for the war.

Probably not a surprise for anyone.

[Carolus]

25 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Around 100 hits in this compilation

Painful. The Russian helicopter fleet is back with a vengeance after floundering so hard last year.

 

 

[AlexUK]

36 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Painful. The Russian helicopter fleet is back with a vengeance after floundering so hard last year.

 

 

Horrific. Seems like a slaughter. 

Satellite imagery to find the helicopter bases, storm shadow the individual helicopters while they are on the ground?